Today’s Breakout Players

Lets get busy with this weeks (probable) breakout players. And definitely worth an inclusion on your fantasy picks. These players are certainly on my list.

  1. Jameis Winston
  2. Chuckie Keeton
  3. Bo Wallace

First up is Jameis Winston. OK, I know a lot of you consider him to be damaged goods. And when he is not throwing for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns, he is probably stuffing lobsters down his pants. Buy hey, a guy has got to eat right? Regardless, this kid from Hueytown, Alabama (population 4) can really play. He is young, fast, and not afraid to throw the rock down field. His breakout game against North Carolina State where he threw for 4 touchdowns was enough to many of us over the top and into payday. And lets not forget the games vs Notre Dame and Syracuse, where he had a passer rating of 163 and 184. Simply amazing. Leave him out of this weeks picks at your own caution.

Next, lets look at Chuckie Keeton. I know, he has had a bad knee and likely will not be seen the entire 2014 season. But with a few games left in the season, a few people have seen Chuckie throwing on the practice field, and he looks great. Just one injury and we could see Chuckie on the field. And its not a stretch to think that he could throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Seriously, he is that good so leave him out if you want to, but I say he is a tier 2 pick and you just need to be prepared. And with a name like Chuckie, you just never know he is going to appear, just like that nasty little doll that nobody could seem to kill off.

Bo Wallace, I really like this kid. And I do believe he is NFL caliber. For 2013, lets not forget that he threw for 3400 yards and had 18 touchdowns. Very strong and durable player. He is not afraid to stay in the pocket and take a nasty hit. He will wait that extra second to make sure his receiver gets that little bit of clearance that he needs to make the catch. I know there have been a lot of rumors regarding his shoulder and whether he is playing injured. The game on November 22 vs Arkansas is a sure lock that this kid is going to throw for 3 touchdowns. Dont say that I didnt warn you.

Well, that is for today. Good luck players and hopefully all of your fantasy wishes come true. I have 3 parlays heading into today’s afternoon games and will post the results tomorrow morning. This mornings action is a little slow. Until tomorrow…

 

Earning Money With Fantasy Football

Can you earn a living betting on Fantasy Football?

In the past 6 months, I have gotten roughly a dozen or so emails from readers that are curious if it is possible to earn a full time income playing fantasy football. Let me answer that question, Yes and NO.

Yes. If you have the patience and discipline to not become emotionally attached to any one player. Be willing to cut a player that is not performing. And do not be afraid to add fresh and young players, especially with little name recognition. Let me give you an example. In 2010, I simply had to have LaDanian Tomlinson as my feature back. The guy just had a monster season and had broken the single season touchdown record. And I foolishly assumed that the streak would continue. On the contrary, it was the opposite. LT got insured on game 2 and never really had a breakout game for the rest of the season. Yes, the Chargers did limp into the playoffs, but LT had a bad knee and I just could not dump him. It was costly and it ended up costing me about $12,000 in season earning. A tough lesson.

No. Most people cannot earn a living simply because the learning curve is very steep. Expect to lose money on the first 3 seasons of action. It really does take that long to a keen understanding of how the game works. Its all about catching the betting public overreacting to certain situations. Allowing the public to crowd into certain players, expecting the same player will perform at a high level, week after week. The truth is that most high performance athletes are extraordinarily good only about 40% of the time. The rest of the time, they will perform at about an average level. The whole key to success is not following the crowd.

What was my best year in earning?

In 2012, I earned $175,000 on fantasy football. I made approximately $225,000 on college ball, and lost about $50,000 on NFL. Typically my earnings are more evening distributed, but in 2012 I had an great year with college. Ironically, the $50,000 losing season in the NFL is the only year that I have lost money with the NFL. Strange. But this is the nature of being a professional player, you just have to learn to go with the flow.

What way my worst year in earning?

In 2006, I made about $75,000. Unfortunately I lost about $100,000. So for the year, I actually lost $25,000. The year was just terrible. I could do nothing correctly. I would dump a player, only to watch the player have a 3 game streak of awesome statistics. Then I would add the player back into the portfolio, only to watch the player get injured in the first quarter, or the very first game back. It was so incredibly. I honestly thought about quitting as just getting a job bagging groceries. The stress was terrible and I developed a back case of acid re-flux.  Years like this really test your mettle and how bad you really want to be a professional player. Thankfully I pulled out of my tailspin in the spring of 2007 and was able to recoup most of my losses and regain much of my confidence. That is really the key, your confidence. Keeping it healthy.

The future of Fantasy Football.

Really, the future is very bright. We have several new online leagues with pools of $20,000,000 on most weekends. With such a large pool, its easy to find players over betting and going into a weekend with too much confidence in their local team. The trend line is definitely pointing up and there is still a good amount of opportunity for savvy players, that are patient and mentally tough. Should you jump in and start playing? With the industry growing so fast, just about anyone can jump in and have a very good chance of winning good size pools. Heck, even some small players have gotten lucky and have won life changing money, I know one player that has been playing for about a year and he won a pool worth about $800,000. That is life changing type of money.

What should you do?

Take it easy. Go slow and enjoy the process. Expect to lose money and not get stressed out when it happens. Once again, don’t fall in love with any one player, don’t be afraid to make changes and make cuts. Do not go with the crowd. Instead, wait for the crowd to overplay a player, then pounce with a tier 2 player that is an up and comer. Do not focus on how much you win, instead focus on money management and preservation of capital. Without a stake, you are just a spectator in the great game. And that is more depressing than losing on any particular weekend. Once again, thanks for reading and don’t forget to leave comments below.

Cheerleaders!

Dolphins CheerleaderWhat to do when your team is not winning?

Being a dolphins fan is rough. We have not been to the playoffs in 10 years. It has been more than a little bit frustrating. And so, with so many years of losing, us die hard fans have found a new and exciting way to enjoying ourselves. Its called cheerleader watching.

What is the best way to cheerleader watch?

Firstly, you need to make sure that you have a seat that is close the end field level. The cheerleaders try and get as close to the fans as possible. And surprisingly, the seats are relatively cheap when they are very close to the field. You would think that they would be more expensive, but they are not. So rule number one is to get field level seats. The closer the better.

Make sure you get your eyes examined.

No really. Make sure that your eyes are functioning correctly. There is nothing worse than getting a really good peep on panties, only to miss the opportunity because your old eyes could no capitalize on the opportunity. So spend the extra $50 dollars and get those eyes checked out. And you might even discover that a good pair of glasses will actually do you some good. For me, the only time I wear my prescription glasses is when I expect to do some serious cheerleader watching.

Another Beautiful Cheerleader

What if you fall in love?

Well rest assured, if you fall in love, I can virtually guarantee you that your love will bot be reciprocated by any of these beauties. Believe me, I have tried on several occasions to profess my undying love for these lovely ladies, but I have yet to have any accept my offer of marriage. Does that dissuade me? Not even a little bit. I am going to keep on trying and trying to win their hearts. I mean, who knows, one might actually look out into the stands and decide that I am husband material.

What does this have to do with fantasy football?

Not much actually. In truth, today was a slow news day and who doesn’t mind looking at a beautiful woman?

This really reminds me a last season when Miami was getting blow out by the Patriots and I was so depressed. As usual, I was at the game, sitting there and wondering to myself just what in the heck I was doing? It was late in the 3rd quarter and the score was 35-10, the Patriots were on there way to yet another win.

Anyway, I am sitting there and for whatever reason, one of the Miami cheerleaders decides to walk over and start talking to use lowly and abused fans. It was so nice.

What does a cheerleader look like up close?

Well, the first thing you notice is the make up. They wear too much. Much too much make up. Almost clownish looking. But dont think that she was ugly, just lots of makeup. In fact, she probably looked much better without the make up. But this is what I noticed most, the sheer amount of makeup.

Well thats it for today’s post. Like I said, its a slow news day and picking are slim. We really didnt have a ton of fantasy football news, so I decided to just fantasize about cheerleaders. As usual, please leave your comment below.

Raise The Roof And Sweep The Floor

What are my favorite fantasy sports strategies?

I have two strategies that I employ on really big weekends. The type of weekends were players are putting up big bucks and the pools are huge.

The strategies are as follows:

  1. Raise The Roof
  2. Sweep The Floor

What is Raise The Roof strategy?

Very simply, this is a parlay where we take the three teams with the highest spread differential. For instance, Miami, Denver, and Cincinnati has a spread differential of +28, which is huge. You take the underdogs for a 3 box parley and hope for the best. Its a great strategy, especially when the natural spread for all three teams is under +20. The betting public will overplay, and force the odds makers to raise spread to compensate. So why the name “Raise The Roof”, because when you hit this bet, you will literally be heard from the roof tops. Its a great and fun wager when it sets up. Unfortunately, it does not set very often. Just need to be patient and wait.

What the Sweep The Floor strategy?

The Sweep The Floor is 7 team parley, where you take all seven teams with the highest spread differential. Yo

u need to be patient and wait for a +40 in order to get this large of a spread. Very rarely will you get this much spread out of 7 teams, the largest morning line odds that I have seen are a +35. But when you can get a +40, you simply have to take the 7 teams and hope that a couple teams has a breakout game.

Back in 2010, I had a “Sweep The Floor” strategy and I had wagered $100. The total payoff was $16,000. Which is huge. But keep in mind this will hit maybe once in every 50 tries. Again, the key is to be patient and just keep playing the strategy.

In 2012, I had a “Raise The Roof” wager of $500 and this one paid $12,000. The natural odds were 20-1, but I got 24-1. Might not sound like a big deal, but a plus differential of 4 is actually pretty good. The whole key is keep playing the odds and not losing faith in the odds.

To date, in back testing of this strategy, I have a sample size of nearly 500 and the average return is about 14%. The worst losing streak was 9. That might not sound like much, but as far as I am concerned, a losing streak of two is two too many! Anyway, thanks for reading and your comments are always welcome below. Even if you do not agree with me, I love to read about your own personal experiences.

Hay, a big shout out to Raymond Flaherty of Oklahoma. I got an email last week that scored an $8,000 pool with Mathew Stafford, Michael Vick, and Kyle Orton as his key players. Amazing and congratulations Ray! Try and put some of the money away for Christmas.

Dirty Dog Dorm Room

Long Haired Dirty Dog

The Dirty Dog Dorm Room

Back in my college days, when I first started playing fantasy football, I had a dog that lived in my dorm room. Now, I don’t know how many of you have ever seen the inside of a dorm room, but in general they are places of filth and disgust. And my dorm room was of no exception. In fact, I had a dog named Scraper. She was a sweet dog. A long haired, terrier mix. Her hair was long and white. But truthfully, it looked long and brown. As a matter of fact, I don’t think I ever gave her a bath. And I believe that is just the way she liked it.

The Hair

I feel like I really need to mention her hair. She was a mix of several breeds and I can guarantee that whatever breed she was, they all had long shaggy hair. When I got her, she was pretty much white. But after a few years of filthy living, her hair had changed into a sticky brown color. I thought it was beautiful, but my friends thought it was just gross. The hair got into everything.

Living With The Hair

Now when I say that the hair got into everything, I really do mean everything. My bed had a permanent coat of gray brown hair that just would not come out. I would wash the sheets and the bed spread, but to now avail, the hair would remain.

The hair also got into my dishwasher. I had this mini dishwasher for my dishes, and I have no idea how the hair got into the dishwasher, but somehow it did. As a result, the dog hair would randomly show up on a plate or in a water glass. Just imagine a 4 inch strand of hair magically appearing in your water glass! Pretty gross stuff. And when I would use my plates, every once in awhile a random dry hair would simply appear. Not fun, or enticing, especially when you are trying to entice a girl to stay for dinner.

Dealing With Dog Hair

Finally, after much disgust, my closest friends broke down and purchased me a vacuum cleaner. Not just any vacuum cleaner, one of those super special vacuum cleaners with a sort of whirlwind feature. Needless to say, I was not convinced that it would actually work on such a disgusting dorm room that was caked with dog hair. But to my surprise, it actually did a pretty good job.

Dog Hair In The Vacuum Bag

Ever take a moment to see what is actually inside of a vacuum bag? After a week of vacuuming, I removed the bag and took a look inside. Amazing! It was stuffed full of dog hair! Hilarious really. In fact, it was so much hair that I rolled it into a ball and turned it into a great big doggie dread lock. Whenever an uninvited guest came by to visit, the doggie dread lock was used with great enthusiasm.

I actually used to carry the dread lock around with me as a sort of good luck charm. I know, its pretty gross and sort of funny.

Running Back Rescue

Ryan Mathews

Well, we are now half way through the NFL season and if your fantasy running back selection has been doing poorly, then this next part should be interesting.

Ryan Mathews is back.

Fresh off a knee injury, Ryan Mathews is set to play against the Oakland Raiders. If there is one thing we know about Mathews, its that he is often injured, and when returning from an injury the guy is unstoppable.

Let History Repeat Itself.

They say that history repeats itself. Well, lets hope so. Cause if Ryan is anything like last year, then his fantasy stats are going to stack up higher than beer cans at a barbecue. The last two times he came back from injury, the shoulder of course, he ran for over 120 yards in each game and had 2 touchdowns in each game. If he can do it once again, then look out cause this guy is going to beat up your fantasy opponents badder than a pissed off Ray Rice in an elevator (with his wife). I know, its poor taste, but in this instance, entirely appropriate.

Ryan Mathews Own Words

When asked recently how his knee is feeling, Ryan Mathews said, “I cannot wait to plant my knee on the head of a Raiders linebacker”. Scary words indeed. But are the Raiders worried? We went over the stats of Ryan’s previous game and in fact, they would be. Ryan Mathews in both games absolutely destroyed the Raiders for nearly 200 yards and 4 touchdowns. So, I just do not know how you can not include Ryan in this weeks fantasy pick sheet.

Should I Bet the Boat?

I am not sure that is game will be the best game to take a big plunge. However, the following game is a dead lock that Ryan is going to rush for over 100 yards and get at least one touchdown. And another factor concerning Mathews is that when he is fresh, the guy is unstoppable. He breaks more tackles than a crowd of clowns fighting over the rights to host a children’s party. In this case, I would wager a +60, which is pretty aggressive, but not the entire amount.

A Reasonable Backup.

Suppose Ryan Mathews becomes injured in the first quarter and you must rely upon your backup running back? In this particular case, I think that you have to go with Marshawn Lynch. Simply because you just do not know when “Beast Mode” is going appear. For sure, his stats have not been 2013 type numbers, but I think that is just a matter of time before he has his first 200+ yard game, with 2 or 3 touchdowns.

Well that it for today’s fantasy running back selections. For this week, lets go with Ryan Mathews and hope his fragile body holds up. And our backup is going to be Marshawn Lynch. Its a good safe pick, with plenty of upside potential.

Good luck with your picks and once again thanks for reading. Please don’t hesitate to leave comments below. Even if you do not agree, I love to hear differing opinions.