The Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University provides on its website a model which it claims was developed in order “to capture, to the best extent possible, a statistical equation to capture the decision making process” of the nation’s top-rated student-athletes coming out of high school with the intention of playing football at the collegiate level.

Noting the significance of acquiring a competitive recruiting class in terms of revenue which could be generated in the future, researchers involved with the creation of the College Football Recruiting Prediction Model — or CFRPM, for short — built a database whose aim was evaluating the characteristics and decisions of nearly 3400 high school football recruits comprising the recruiting classes of 2002, 2003, and 2004. Using a special form of what the Mercer website refers to as a probit — or generalized linear — model, and recognizing that most recruits generally choose from a grouping of four schools in making their final commitment to a particular program, researchers aimed to create an econometric system — mathematical and statistical techniques used to predict solutions to specific economic problems — that could help athletic departments and their corresponding football programs at the NCAA level more accurately predict what a particular recruit might — or, in fact, might not — do in terms of making a formal decision to play at one school versus another.

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Notes From The Margin is pleased to introduce to this site’s readers Ms. Jessica Lantz, an Oklahoma State Cowboys alumni, lover of all things Big XII South, future PGA Amateur-hopeful (look out, Michelle Wie . . .), and practicing chanteuse.

On special assignment for NFTM, on behalf of Osceola’s Garnet Sports Media, Jessica takes an in-depth look at the recent recruiting classes for schools of the Big XII Conference, beginning here — why aren’t we surprised? — with the South Division.

Baylor

Baylor football, thanks to head coach Art Briles, has begun the steep climb toward becoming serious contenders in the Big XII South. The 2008 campaign was Briles’ first season with the Bears, but everyone around the football program — and around the nation, for that fact –  has already seen vast improvements from the Baylor teams of old. Expect that their 28 total new recruits will help keep the positive momentum going in 2009 and continue elevating the Baylor football program in one of the nation’s most-talented BCS conferences.

Who To Watch:

Glasco Martin (6’1”, 196 lb.) comes to Baylor from Round Rock, TX as a running back. His senior season stats of 1,613 yards and 25 touchdowns rushing, as well as 14 receptions for two touchdowns, show Martin’s ability to be an all-purpose player for the Bears. Besides his offensive skill sets, Martin is said to also have the ability to convert to the defensive side of the ball at safety as well, emphasizing his overall athleticism and versatility.

Mike Hicks (5’11”, 175 lb.) from China Spring, TX has been inked to OSU as a safety. In his senior campaign, Hicks earned recognition as an All-State selection at both receiver and kick returner, while ending up finishing his high school career with 4,327 yards and 41 touchdown and the distinction of being the second-leading pass catch in Texas state high school football history. Although his stats prove his offensive worth, Briles is opting to have him focus on defense based on his intensity, intelligence and ability.

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Fantasy College Blitz continues its coverage of the best the Class of 2009 has to offer in Part Three of our series, “Freshman Fifteen” . . .

Moses Alipate, University of Minnesota (Source: Jason Roberts, Osceola's Garnet Sports Media / Fantasy College Blitz)

Moses Alipate, QB, University of Minnesota

Ranked the #2 high school player in the state of Minnesota by Rivals.com, Alipate is described by GopherSports.com, official website for the University of Minnesota athletics, as an “impressive athlete, yet very polished in the pocket.” He has surprisingly good feet considering he is more a traditional passer that a dual-threat-type under center, and has an excellent arm which allows him to stretch the field without losing velocity or accuracy on his throws. Rivals ranked Alipate the #19 “pro-style” quarterback in the nation, while the 6’5”, 230 pound youngster that played both football and basketball at Jefferson High School in Bloomington, Minnesota landed a three-star rating each from Rivals and Scout.com. He threw for 1422 yards and 14 touchdowns / 10 interceptions as a senior in 2008, completing 51.3 percent of his passes, while adding to his overall numbers 81 rushing attempts for 201 yards and an additional six scores. His performance in his last season at Jefferson netted him All-State honors from the St. Paul Pioneer Press, the Associated Press, and the Minnesota Football Coaches Association. Alipate also was named to the 2009 Under Armour High School All-American Game in Orlando, Florida, where he went two-for-seven passing for 33 yards in limited playing time.

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Fantasy College Blitz continues its evaluation of the incoming Class of 2009 at wide receiver . . .

Jheranie Boyd, University of North Carolina. (Doug Benc / Getty Images, Under Armour Inc.)

Jheranie Boyd, WR, University of North Carolina

When Boyd of Ashbrook High School in Gastonia, North Carolina made the decision to stay instate and commit to the University of North Carolina, he did so, says ESPN, because the Tar Heels had the “best coaching staff in the country” and, in his mind, should be considered “one of the top rising programs in the country.” Given his 6’2”, 184 pound frame and wide-array of athletic abilities (4.4 40-yard dash, 44-inch vertical leap, etc.) as a wide receiver, expect that the arrival of Boyd in Chapel Hill this fall will only serve to make Butch Davis’ team even better. Scouts note that given Boyd’s size, it is surprising just how much speed he brings to the game every time he takes the field; still, it isn’t just physical attributes that make him the outstanding recruit at wideout that he is, but too includes a deeply-rooted instinct for what it takes to be one of the best to play at his respective position, a strong sense of understanding for the technical aspects of what makes a good offensive playbook successful. Boyd is fantastic as a route-runner and should adapt easily to playing at the next level – perhaps even more so than any other receiver coming out of the Class of 2009. A young man far beyond his years – one ESPN writer says “he conducts himself like a 25-year old man with a college degree” – and a well-respected leader in the huddle, Boyd somehow fell just below the radar for much of his recruiting process, and didn’t really impress with the two catches made in this past January’s Under Armour All-American Bowl. With Hakeem Nicks now moved on to the NFL from UNC, however, don’t expect the relative obscurity that’s followed Boyd to continue for much longer. Something tells us that the hype around this particular wide receiver is for real and, as such, he’ll have an immediate impact – and perhaps a big one – starting as early as the 2009 season.

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Fantasy College Blitz knows you are in that downtime….the 2008 season is well over…and 2009 is still many months away.  What to do?

Well…since even the most hard-core college football fan can only muster six or seven viewings of The Express….or play endless rematches of Michigan’s 2008 season on xBox, Wii, or SegaGenesis….or watch the reruns of the World Poker Championships…you need some real, brain-stimulating diversions.

How about some interesting books?

Books?!?

Before you call me “geek” or “literature major”…hear me out.  There are some good books on football out there.  Books that are quite interesting to football fans.  And, books that do not require a Ph.D to read.

Ever wonder what is was like to play with, or against, Jim Thorpe? (photo, thanks Oklahoma Historical Society) Ever wonder what football helmets looked like years ago?  Ever wonder about the behind-the-scenes of some of the greatest college football rivalries?

Here are some books to pass the long offseason Read the rest of this entry →