This is the first edition of my Mock Drafts that will be updated throughout the next 2 months leading to the NFL Draft. A flaw in all Mock Drafts is the inability to account for trades that always happen. I currently have only one RB being taken in the 1st round in this mock draft but the reality is that some team would likely trade up and take a Chris Wells. Mark Sanchez is another example as someone that could drop to the bottom third of the draft but in reality a team will likely trade up into the teens and grab him. I admit it is so early in the process that some of these picks may look silly come April but with regards to the information out there currently, the draft tendencies and my personal experience this is how I would expect the draft to play out if held today. (Feb 20th)
1) Detroit (0-16) Jason Smith, OT, Baylor- Over the next two months the top three tackles will battle to be the top pick as new head coach Jim Schwartz takes a page from the Dolphins from last year. Signability is also another reason for Detroit to pass on Matthew Stafford and elect to take a franchise tackle who they can agree on a contract before the draft. Smith is viewed as having the most upside of the three and stated he would not hold out making him the Lions choice. Obviously, Stafford remains an option if he can convince Detroit is more than just the top QB in the draft but actually a franchise QB worthy of the contract he would demand.
The 2009 NFL Combine is underway now and there are always a lot of debating that takes place surrounding this event. The fact that a player can have a dominating collegiate career, be considered one the top players at his position and then have that all flushed down the toilet with a bad week of working out in a non-game environment always leave fans scratching their heads. The big debate of how much the scout’s ‘measurables’ should over-ride the on-the-field performance is worth its own article and will not be addressed here. Instead I am just going to accept the fact that this week in Indianapolis is extremely important that can mean difference of millions of dollars or in many cases whether or not a kid’s dream of playing in the NFL is fulfilled.
In order to make my point to how important the NFL Combine is let’s take a look at last years Combine to illustrate how much the NFL Combine influences the draft.
Vernon Gholston – DE/OLB Ohio State: Gholston (right, CNN) had one very good year at Ohio State in which he then chose to declare early for the draft. Based on his potential, Golston arrived at the Combine last year as someone expected to go in the 15-25 pick range of the first round. However after having a legendary type workout in which he posted a 40 time of 4.65 and 37 bench presses for a 6-4 266lb DE, he left scouts drooling. The NY Jets selected him 6th overall and gave him a $50 million contract with $21million guaranteed.
Fantasy College Blitz continues its evaluation of the incoming Class of 2009 at running back . . .
Jarvis Giles, RB, University of South Carolina
Watching film of Jarvis Giles, running back out of Gaither High School in Tampa, Florida, two things quickly become clear:first, perhaps no other tailback in the Class of 2009 hits holes at the line of scrimmage quicker and harder than the 5’11”, 180 pound youngster, and, second, the degree of acceleration which Giles possesses once he breaks out into open space is truly hard to fathom.An exceptional downhill runner that has tremendous vision when it comes to identifying the best point of attack along the line, Giles is a physical back that prefers to avoid the pizzazz and flair of more elusive rushers and instead travel the shortest path between him and the endzone.Scouts suggest that given his lean frame, Giles will need to build additional body mass to account for the beating he will take running the way he does at the college level; so too does he need to develop a lower center of gravity, as he has a habit of running high when he carries the ball.Both issues can be addressed with time.What cannot be taught is the valuable set of intangibles that Giles brings to South Carolina as one of this year’s highest-touted recruits.Expect subsequently that he’ll have an almost instantaneous impact on the ability of the Gamecocks to run the ball in 2009 and could see some serious time as a starter should he perform well in spring and fall camps.
Fantasy College Blitz continues its evaluation of the incoming Class of 2009 at quarterback . . .
Tom Savage
Tom Savage, QB, Rutgers University
Considering the challenges Rutgers faced throughout the 2008 college football season, some expected highly-touted quarterback Tom Savage of Cardinal O’Hara High School to lose faith in head coach of the Scarlet Knights, Greg Schiano, and start looking elsewhere to programs such as the University of Tennessee. Yet, when National Signing Day arrived at the start of February, Savage told reporters,“I love Coach Schiano, and I was going to stay loyal no matter what happened.” Such was not the case with many recruits initially providing Rutgers verbal commitments; the New York Times notes that a half-dozen ended up backing out of signing with the Scarlet Knights in favor of going elsewhere. But Savage – who some are already comparing to the now-graduated Mike Teel – was different, a figure “as tough mentally as he is physically,” comments his coach at O’Hara, Dan Algeo. Algeo cites the following as evidence: Savage missed time as a junior due to injury before returning in his senior season and throwing for 1355 yards and ten touchdowns; he is a physical specimen under center at 6’5” and 225 pounds, yet plays with the finesse and speed of a smaller quarterback; he ran a pro-style offense in high school; and Savage was considered by both his high school teammates and coaching staff a phenomenal leader both on and off the field. It is those traits – in addition to his collected presence in the pocket and outstanding throwing mechanics – which have Schiano telling the local media is Piscataway, “I can’t wait to get him up here and start coaching him.” Scouts note the youngster possesses a bit of an odd throwing motion which causes Savage to sometimes lose solid control of the ball, particularly on long passes downfield; despite this shortcoming, however, the Pennsylvania native should grow into an outstanding passer and flourish in the offensive scheme Schiano features at Rutgers.
Last week we saw the first article of the series of Team Needs heading into the NFL Draft which focused on the AFC East. The next division that we will take a look at is the AFC West which is always interesting with Al Davis and AJ Smith around.
Denver Broncos
Top 3 Needs: Defensive End – Cornerback – Running Back
The Denver Broncos switched coaching staffs heading into the off-season, electing to bring in Josh McDaniels as head coach and Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator. With Nolan taking over on the defensive side of the ball, many expect Denver to shift to a 3-4 defense in 2009, a scheme which the Broncos have the base foundation in terms of current players to initiate such a change. At linebacker, the team hosts D.J. Williams, Spencer Larsen, Wesley Woodyard, and Jamie Winborn – all of which should find great success in a four-player set at the second-level of a 3-4 lineup. Yet, defensive end and tackle along the defensive front could become an issue in the transition to a new defensive scheme, necessitating a pick like Boston College’s B.J. Raji or Alabama’s Terrence Cody to provide size and speed at the line of scrimmage. The Secondary also currently provides some glaring holes for Denver on defense, with Champ Bailey succumbing to the challenges of age and injury and safety arguably the weakest position overall for the Broncos on either side of the ball. As such, Savre Bedinger of BleacherReport.com argues that Denver’s best move in this year’s draft could be to actually trade down in the first round and instead take a string of two to three quality defensive players heading into and through Round Two. In doing so, Denver would be left having with the difficult task of choosing prospects which addressed teams according to the given availability of such players at the time the Broncos go on the clock. Free agency, states Bedinger, could very well loosen up the demand for Denver to follow such a tightly scripted plan in April’s draft; many prognosticators love the idea, for instance, of gambling on a pick like Iowa’s Shonn Greene at running back as someone who will pay off dividends as a rookie or electing to take a wide receiver such as Jarrett Dilliard who can have an immediate impact playing out of the slot. Still, much of what Denver will do is predicated upon Nolan’s decision to move to the 3-4; if the Broncos give the green light to such a transition, then defense is likely to remain the name of the game in this year’s draft. That being the case, names to remember include Raji, Cody, Peria Jerrry of Mississippi, or Fili Moala from USC. Snatching up a talented pair of defensive backs like Virginia Tech’s Eddie Royal or D.J. Moore of Vanderbilt will also go a long way in aiding Denver to become a better threat in pass coverage, but don’t surprised if a multi-positional player like Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins gets his name called early on as well.
The 2009 NFL Combine is underway now and there are always a lot of debating that takes place surrounding this event. The fact that a player can have a dominating collegiate career, be considered one the top players at his position and then have that all flushed down the toilet with a bad week of working out in a non-game environment always leave fans scratching their heads. The big debate of how much the scout’s ‘measurables’ should over-ride the on-the-field performance is worth its own article and will not be addressed here. Instead I am just going to accept the fact that this week in Indianapolis is extremely important that can mean difference of millions of dollars or in many cases whether or not a kid’s dream of playing in the NFL is fulfilled.
Jarvis Giles, RB, University of South Carolina
