2010 Big 12 Preview
August 23rd, 2010 by James Lawrence
The 2009 season saw a broad toning down of scoring and offensive statistics in the Big 12 compared to the frenzied shootouts of 2008 and to some extent 2007. 2010 looks to be a continuation of that trend, as the conference has lost its top two quarterbacks and most of its top receivers. Additionally, the defenses that improved in 2009 appear to be similarly strong in 2010.
Of course, the most obvious change will likely take place at Texas Tech. With Mike Leach gone and Tommy Tuberville in place, the Texas Tech starting QB and their receiving corps is no longer a lock to put up big numbers week after week. Tuberville claims to be committed to the spread, but a) that’s a claim we’ve heard before (when Tony Franklin was OC at Auburn) and b) earlier this spring, Tuberville also said that Tech QBs had been concerned about the lack of support from a running game – likely a hint that the offense would be undergoing at least some level of changes. But even if Tubbs were to commit to the spread, you don’t just step in and run an offense like Mike Leach does. So expect decline there.Texas will be without Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley. Oklahoma loses Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham – neither of whom played much/any in 2009 – but also line anchor Trent Williams and Brody Eldridge. Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant are no longer at Oklahoma State; Missouri loses their top two WR from last season, Kansas loses Todd Reesing, Desmon Briscoe, and Kerry Meier; Kansas State loses 4 of their top 5 receivers… it is just not looking like a good year for many offenses.
On the bright side, Texas A&M returns most of their starting offense, and Baylor should rebound in a big way if QB Robert Griffin stays healthy.g
Once again, Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska should field very formidable defenses – possibly all top ten units in the nation. Because of their elite defenses, one of these three teams should finish with the best record in the conference. A&M might be considered a sleeper; however, to win the Big 12 South they will have to show much more consistency than they have in recent years.
Nonetheless, there are still many players in the conference worth looking at:
Jerrod Johnson's poised to make this conference his?
Quarterbacks
Jerrod Johnson is the clear preseason favorite for top conference QB here, and as a dual threat QB his rushing TDs will be a big boost to fantasy stats.
Blaine Gabbert benefits from an incredibly easy non-conference schedule and the fact that the Tigers do not face the Big 12′s top secondary, Texas.
Gabbert narrowly beats out Robert Griffin, who is likely to struggle against TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma as those defenses will give the Baylor offense fits. (Nonetheless, I’m half-expecting and whole-heartedly rooting for Griffin to lead Baylor to a bowl eligible season.)
Landry Jones will lead an Oklahoma offense that returns most of its receiving corps and can only expect improvement over 2009.
If it gets this late in the draft, Garrett Gilbert and Austen Arnaud are your two best bets. We likely know what we’re getting with Arnaud – solid production but an offense that isn’t going to put the ball in the end zone a lot. Gilbert is more of a question mark — I think he performed admirably against Alabama given the circumstances, and that 2010 will be a redeeming season for him. But on the other hand, the team’s best WR (who caught both TD passes against the Tide) is also gone and the running game has been problematic for several seasons now.
Running Backs
The Big 12 has no nationally elite running backs. However, there are some good picks in this bunch.
Daniel Thomas basically is that Kansas State offense. He may not score heaps of TDs because of the team he plays for, but he’s got a good shot to finish in the top 10 nationally in rushing yards just because of the volume of carries he gets.
Demarco Murray is in the opposite situation. Oklahoma’s offense is bound to improve, and with Chris Brown gone, Murray should be nearing full-time status in the red zone. He can expect a lot of scores.
Kendall Hunter should be the focus of Oklahoma State’s offense now that Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant are gone. Keith Toston is also gone, so Hunter will reclaim his featured role.
Looking a little down out list, Derrick Washington will be playing in an offense that could score a lot of points, and his priority will be emphasized in the red zone as some of the experienced WRs are gone. Alexander Robinson is likely to be a major emphasis (along with Arnaud) for the otherwise lackluster Iowa State offense.
Roy Helu has become something of a name in the conference, but I expect Nebraska’s offensive woes to only slightly improve in 2010. Likewise, Christine Michael’s stats may be hurt by the fact that Jerrod Johnson himself is a threat to run in the red zone, so Michael may be deprived of some of the easy scores that other top fantasy RBs get.
Baron Batch plays for an offense that has been prolific in the past, and his new coach has hinted at more of a running game than the team has used in the past. However, I am skeptical that this Tech offense will continue putting up numbers even resembling those of previous seasons.
Rodney Stewart is probably the only other RB in the conference worth looking at.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
The first pick at WR is easy, as Ryan Broyles had a monster season in 2009 and could be the nation’s top fantasy receiver in 2010. Broyles doubled as the conference’s top punt return man in 2009.
Jeff Fuller won’t be in Broyles’ point range, but he has been Johnson’s favorite target in the past and should be the #2 receiver in the conference.
Beyond this, things are less clear. Detron Lewis and Alexander Torres both had similar stats a season ago for Texas Tech. With Torres having been just a freshman, he should be expected to see the greater improvement, and thus could be the third-most productive receiver in the conference.
Jerrell Jackson is the top receiver returning at Missouri and could be due a 1,000 yard season. Wes Kemp ought to settle in as the offense’s #2, but I see no reason he won’t be within 200 yards of Jackson.
Anyone expecting a resurgence of Robert Griffin should look for Kendall Wright to be catching plenty of balls and getting more open looks as defenses struggle with Griffin’s mobility.
Malcolm Williams had more yards per catch than any other Texas receiver in 2009, and could lead the team in yards in 2010. The problem is that James Kirkendoll outscored him in TDs 6 to 2. One of these will likely be the top receiver on the team… with Gilbert throwing a deeper ball than McCoy, that could be Williams.
Scotty McKnight emerged as a reliable receiver at Colorado, and could easily place above the Tex recivers and Wright on this list. There is some variance here due to Colorado’s offensive issues, particularly at QB.
For Oklahoma State, Hubert Anyiam stepped up to become the #1 receiver after Dez Bryant became ineligible. However, Anyiam had just 515 yards and 3 TDs in this role, and shouldn’t challenge the top of the league’s receiving stats.
At the TE position, Mike McNeill is the clear league favorite and will get decent production in Nebraska’s offense. The rest of the league is full of question marks at TE. Missouri could well field the #2 TE because of the offense they run, but whether that will be Andrew Jones or Michael Egnew is not completely clear at this point.
Kickers
Place kicker is a very strong position for the Big 12, and just about everyone is returning their kicker from 2009 (save for Texas).
Grant Russell hit 26/27 for Missouri in 2009 and could be the nation’s top kicker in 2010.
Alex Henery was reliable for Nebraska with an 86% conversion rate, and his stats are helped by the fact that Nebraska’s defense often puts the offense in favorable positions, but the offense is often unable to put the ball in the end zone. He is the most likely challenger to Russell’s spot at #1.
After these two, the question becomes which teams will likely get the ball into field goal range the most. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are my picks here as both could be running fairly one-dimensional offenses that don’t quite fire on all cylinders, but are still successful enough to push the ball well past midfield.
Texas actually was one of three Big 12 teams to have a kicker hit over 20 field goals in 2009 (nobody else hit over 13 in fact), but Hunter Lawrence is gone – replaced by John Tucker who did most of the punting last year as well as handling kickoffs – and the offense is full of question marks.
Betting on Oklahoma’s offense never seems like a bad idea, and returning kicker Jimmy Stevens converted 11 of 13 last season. I’d look for a 50-100 point improvement for this offense over the season, and Stevens would obviously see a large chunk of that.
Defense
As mentioned, the Big 12 has three top tier defenses. In this order: Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma. Beyond these three, Texas Tech might see some improvement under a more defense-minded coach, and Missouri looks like a passable choice if your options are limited.
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