The 2008 Season: There’s something to be said for failing so spectacularly that one season not only blows up all of our preconceived notions about Auburn, but it also kills the coaching career of a head coach who had gone 75-27 this century prior to that season and had a 13-0 season on the books not even 5 years ago.  Really, last year had it all – destroying a previous 6-year winning streak against Alabama, getting blown up by a lackluster West Virginia team on the road with a national audience, and – let’s not forget – the cavalcade of awesomeness that was the 3-2 win over Mississippi State.

Honestly, if this season was in a box that box has since blown up, because the only thing in Auburn’s box last year was an IED.

QB Kodi Burns (thanks Icon SMI)

On Offense: New OC Gus Malzahn’s first task is going to be figuring out what the hell to do with this QB corps – I’m not going to say they’re bad, but Auburn fans were pining for the halcyon days of Brandon Cox about halfway through the season.  On paper, it sounds like a great problem to have; Kodi Burns is a dual-threat QB and Chris Todd trained under Mike Leach, so he understands how to run multiple-WR offenses from shotgun.  Of course, in translation Burns is a typical dual-threat QB (can’t pass to save his life) and there’s a reason Todd transferred from Texas Tech (he’s not any good) – and lest Tiger fans cling to the untested Neil Caudle, remember that he wasn’t good enough to displace either of these guys last season.

Burns will get the first shot – when all things mean equal (even if they sum up to crap), there’s no sense to not take the guy who can run as well as pass, even if using pass will sometimes require quotation marks.  His passing numbers will likely be middling, but he has more value in fantasy than he does in real life thanks to his legs.  He’ll be worth a look in most deeper leagues.

RB Ben Tate, 33rd player in AU history to record 1,000 yds rushing (thanks Icon SMI)

Of course, there’s still the question of who’s running the routes.  Auburn hasn’t had a playmaker at WR since Courtney Taylor left town; there’s hope that Mario Fannin can finally step into the playmaker role, but the problem is that he’s a hybrid player.  While he certainly has the capability of being a playmaker, there’s been no evidence to this point that he actually is one.  Among the guys who actually line up at WR, Montez Billings and Tim Hawthorne are the guys to watch for.  It’s tough to make any kind of projection on how they’ll play, though; not only are they on their 4^th scheme since they stepped on-campus, but they don’t have a QB who can hit the broad side of a barn.  I’d like to think one or both of them can top 500 yards, but that means that I’d also be projecting Burns to have around 1,800 yards passing (when you take everyone else he’d have to pass to into account) and I’m not sure how I feel about that.  At TE, Tommy Trott and Gabe McKenzie have both demonstrated competence in the passing game in previous seasons so they’re not bad options.  However, neither is a quality talent in the passing game, meaning they’ll be mostly outlet options.  Most of the WRs aren’t worth looking at, and Fannin is only worth it if you really, really think he’s going to have a breakout season; personally, I don’t see it.

Not surprisingly, Auburn’s offensive success is going to be dictated by the running game – and they’re in pretty decent shape there.  Ben Tate returns for his senior season; he’s near 2,000 yards for his career and while even I don’t think he has much of a shot at 3,000 yards total, he’s been better than most people realize.  Granted, I still think part of his rushing success has been due to having absolutely no other options, but whatever works.  Fannin will see some action here as well…

On Defense and Special Teams: Defense has long been Auburn’s calling card; my suspicion as to why we don’t think of Auburn as a dominant team is their defense has consistently been so far above good that we don’t even think about it anymore.  It just happens.  (The rest of the reason why we don’t think of Auburn as dominant is their offense has been at best average, save 2004 / 2005.)

The funny part about Auburn’s defense last year is they didn’t rack up the numbers that anyone cares about; their sack and pick totals were lackluster.  Still, their overall yardage defense was just about average for the SEC, which qualifies as a step down for these guys – the 4.1 ypc allowed is the most they’ve allowed in the last five years.  They’ll need someone in the front seven to step up this season; both Auburn’s leading tacklers from last year were their starting safeties.

With all the turnover everywhere else, at least K Wes Bynum is back.  Bynum, like everyone else last year, sucked pretty hard, but everyone’s heard of him for his gutshot kick to beat Florida on the road as a freshman, so it’s not like he doesn’t have the talent.  From the make-your-own-joke department, Auburn actually has a couple of capable punters in Clinton Durst and Ryan Shoemaker; they’ll get plenty of opportunities, amirite?  It’s not all peaches, though – they roll over most of their talent in the return game, meaning Fannin will have to step up here to make the unit worth something.  Benton and Hawthorne may see some action here, too.

So What’s Their Bowl Game? While this is going to be one heck of a transition season for Auburn, at least they picked the right year to schedule Ball State.  West Virginia is a likely loss since it’s so early in the season (although they have their own issues); if they win that, 2-6 in-conference will get them to a bowl game.  If not, you can do the math.  They draw Tennessee on the road and Kentucky at home this year from the East, which isn’t terrible as these things go.  While I’m not sure I’d expect wins from both those games, 1-1 should be nearly guaranteed.  Mississippi State is a home game, so that’s an easy win too.  After that, things get dicey; road games at LSU and Georgia are anything but sure wins (especially the LSU game, which will probably kick off at 8) and they get Ole Miss and the Iron Bowl at home.  With the Alabama game being what it is, I won’t say they’ll lose that game, but I will say that they’re underdogs in that matchup right now.  Ole Miss should be a loss unless we’re all wrong about them.

With that being said, they’re somewhere on that 5-7 / 6-6 cusp; 7-5 is possible if a few things break right.  That means they’re headed somewhere in December likely and it’s going to be some crap game nobody wants to go to – did someone say Shreveport?

Related posts:

1. SEC Preview: Auburn Tigers
2. Outback Bowl Preview: Northwestern vs. Auburn
3. SEC Preview: LSU Tigers
4. Clemson Tigers 2009 Team Preview
5. Ole Miss Rebels 2009 Preview

Tags: Auburn Tigers, SEC