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BCS BREAKDOWN - ten teams have a chance
By Vince Mullins | October 20, 2008
Today’s guest blogger is birthday boy Steve Golden. Steve has followed college football since the Art Schlichter days at Ohio State and has a great take on the remainder of the schedule and the BCS. Take it away Steve…
As you take a look at the first BCS Poll of 2008, there is one thing that is for sure. At least 10 teams have a shot at Miami January 8th, 2009.
All ten play another Top 10 team except Alabama and USC. Bama has been vulnerable lately against Kentucky and Ole Miss and still has a tough game at LSU and a rivalry game in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. Tommy Tuberville is 7-2 against Bama and will likely be playing to keep his job…..again. LSU is 3-1 in conference and still has visions of a repeat and will go with the strategy they know best in big situations and 4th downs…. “Les-ticles”.
USC has by far the easiest remaining schedule and likely will not stumble. If they do, it may be to a revengeful and rejuvenated Notre Dame team or the cross town rivalry against UCLA. You can “bet” Rick Neuheisel will have his very average team ready for the game December 6th, the same day as many of the Conference Tournaments.
Schedule breakdown after the jump…
Golden BCS Schedule
| Harris | AP | USA | BCS | School | Loss? | 25-Oct | 1-Nov | 8-Nov | 15-Nov | 22-Nov | 29-Nov | 6-Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Texas | None | Ok St | at T Tech | Baylor | at Kansas | idle | Tex AM | B12 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Alabama | None | at Tenn | Ark St | at LSU | Miss St | idle | Aub | SEC |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Penn St | None | at OSU | idle | at Iowa | Ind | MSU | idle | idle |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | Oklahoma | Texas | at K State | Neb | at Tex AM | T Tech | at Ok State | idle | B12 |
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | USC | Oregon St | at Ariz | Wash | Cal | at Stan | idle | ND | at UCLA |
| 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 | Okla. St | None | at Tex | Iowa St | at T Tech | at Colorado | idle | Okla | B12 |
| 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | Georgia | Bama | at LSU | UF | at Kentucky | at Aub | idle | G Tech | SEC |
| 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | Texas Tech | None | at Kansas | Tex | Ok St | idle | at Okla | Baylor | B12 |
| 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | Ohio St | USC | PSU | idle | at NW | at Illinois | Mich | idle | |
| 6 | 5 | 7 | 10 | Florida | Ole Miss | Kentucky | UGA | at Vandy | SC | Citadel | at FSU | SEC |
The Big Ten’s hope for a 3rd year in a row with representation in the big game is with Penn State or Ohio State. All Penn State needs to do is not lose and they will move up to #2 past Alabama, and #1 if Texas slips. They will be tested on the road at Ohio State this week at 8pm. If they win, Joe-Pa will instill the discipline and focus his team has shown all year and will not lose to Iowa, Indiana or Michigan State. Ohio State’s chances to make it 3 in a row will be as tough as a Waffle House steak. Winning out would include wins against Penn State, at Northwestern, at Illinois (payback game) and Michigan. As bad as Michigan is this year, you throw away the record books when these two teams play.
Even then, the human vote would factor in as not many coaches outside of Columbus want to see the Buckeyes AGAIN on January 8th. If they win out, USC needs another loss or all as the Big 12 team would need 2 losses. It is possible with the help of Kansas winning their big games (they still play Texas and Texas Tech) in an attempt to win the Big 12 North.
Either Florida or Georgia drops off when they meet November 1st. There are too many good teams that will have one loss for a two-loss team from the SEC to make the NC this year. The winner of this game still has a tough schedule. UGA is at LSU this week and at Auburn in 4 weeks and then will have to stop the GT wishbone (and Vince’s #2 defense) November 29th. UF is at Vandy (and always struggles against them), hosts the Ole Ball Coach and a rivalry game at FSU. All 3 are trap games in their own right.
If UGA or UF make it through the schedule, they will play a hungry team from the West in the SEC Championship game. If the winner has 1 loss, they will play for the National Title.
4 of the Top 10 are in the Big 12 South. Only one can play for the Big 12 championship and as bad as Mizzou has been lately, anything can happen in one big game. If Kansas tops Mizzou and comes out of the North, that means they probably beat Texas or Texas Tech or both.
Texas Tech has already had close calls against Nebraska and Texas A&M. They still play the 3 teams in their division ranked above them and play them back to back to back. Gauntlet time.
There are five undefeated teams in the Top 10. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State all play each other. Penn State plays Ohio State this week and we will know where the Big Ten stands. Alabama has to play out it’s games against solid teams, but none in the current Top 10.
The games to watch this weekend - the two battles of Top Ten teams as Penn State visits Ohio State and Oklahoma State travels to #1 Texas. Get yer popcorn.
Topics: Preview, The Trend is Your Friend, Vince Mullins |
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