BCS Championship Game Preview
January 6th, 2010 by John Huss
Bowl History
The Rose Bowl is pretty much the reason why we didn’t have the BCS as early as 1991, and the reason why the BCS is what it is today instead of the playoff that everyone else wants. So… bowl history? 91 Miami/Washington; split national champions. 94 Penn State; unbeaten but didn’t get to play national champs Nebraska. 97 Michigan/Nebraska; split national champions. There’s your Rose Bowl history.
Oh, more Rose Bowl history, you ask? 03 LSU/USC; split national champions. 00 Miami/08 Texas; sat at home and watched teams they beat lose national championship games. 04 Auburn; unbeaten SEC champs and not a slot for them in the championship game. 04 Utah/06 Boise State/08 Utah/09 Boise State ; unbeaten without even an asterisk. The Rose Bowl is evil. As darkly evil as Jim Delany’s black heart. When Bill Hancock sends Chris Petersen a congratulatory note on his team’s “great season” he should include a dozen roses along with that.
Also Vince Young had the greatest ever performance of all time, now and forever at the Rose Bowl, which is the only redeeming thing about this bowl’s history.
Now, to present a pro case for each team winning the National Championship, we have Chris Pendley in the Alabama corner and James Lawrence in the Texas corner. As with the real game, may the best one win.
Alabama Crimson Tide
(written by Chris Pendley)
Alabama had damn near a perfect season; short of Auburn and Tennessee (their two rivals, who likely got up and a half for this game), nobody else got within a possession of them. It’s because of that domination that everyone’s expecting the Tide to well, roll. (Yes, I hate that joke. No, I couldn’t think of anything better.)
Alabama’s success is predicated on the typical, cliché-as-hell, “championship team” motto: defense and a good running game. Of course, it’s only a cliché because it’s worked before, and Alabama’s adhered to that as tightly as you’d like. Nick Saban got where he is because he follows the money because he’s a great defensive coach. Saban’s known for preferring to adhere to a Cover 1 scheme, leaving his free safety as a general catch-all and allowing for his strong safety to focus in either run support or as another coverage back. It’s to Alabama’s benefit that FS Mark Barron was as good as he was, ending up as a first-team All-SEC selection and leading the team in interceptions (by far) with 7, including one returned for a TD. Aside from Barron, the rest of the secondary opts for pass breakups; DB Marquis Johnson led the nation in pass breakups with 16, and three members of the secondary (Kareem Jackson being the other) finished the season in the top 30 nationally of passes defended. It’s because of these guys – and the nasty run defense – that Alabama finished 8th in the country in pass defense, including a particularly nasty 9/20 TD/INT ratio.
Alabama LB Rolando McClain (thanks Icon SMI)
From there, Alabama is free to stuff the run (something they’ve done very well all season, allowing nearly 80 yards on the ground total per game) – helped a bit by virtual mountain NT Terrance Cody stuffing up the interior running lanes. LB Rolando McClain – last seen sweeping up awards en masse – patrols the middle, functioning as the leader of the linebacker corps and pulling his weight in pass defense as well. He’s decent at that, only finishing as a first-team All-American. All told, the defensive unit finished with only allowing 4.1 yards per play; that seems high at first glance – after all, you’d convert every third down with 4.1 yards per play – except that’s good enough for fourth nationally, behind Nebraska (who uses a similar approach, especially at the nose tackle position).
So what about the second half of that equation? Well, Mark Ingram was one of the best power runners in the nation – the best if you base it on receiving little stiff-armed trophies – at 6.2 yards per carry and nearly 120 yards per game. However, it’s not like Ingram is the only running threat; true freshman RB Trent Richardson is averaging over 5 yards a pop and Roy Upchurch has been effective in limited carries. When a team has that many backs averaging that many yards a carry, it means two things: 1) they have great backs and 2) they have a pretty good offensive line. That offensive line is anchored by Mike Johnson and Alabama has typically done a lot of running between the tackles. Ingram in particular excels after contact (part of the reason he’s been responsible for so many demoralizing runs for the Tide’s opponents).
If there’s a weak spot on this Alabama team, it’s the passing game. QB Greg McElroy has been good enough – he was the potential weak link on a championship-capable team – but he had a rough middle of the season, bottoming out in a 15-34, 147 yard performance against Ole Miss. Still, he’s been good as the season wore on, snapping out of his funk to complete no worse than 66% of his passes against his last three FCS opponents (including a 4/0 TD/INT ratio). Again, he’s not going to be asked to win the game, but he can at least not lose it now. His targets are the incredibly talented Julio Jones, speedy Marquis Maze, and reliable safety valve Colin Peek. Jones is the obvious talent here – so obvious, in fact, that teams have been throwing the kitchen sink at him all year and his numbers have suffered as a result.
Because Alabama isn’t insane enough in its own right, K Leigh Tiffin has also had a fantastic year, finishing as a first-team All-SEC selection after going 29-for-33 in FG attempts (including at least three games where he hit four FGs). P Pat Fitzgerald is a weak link by comparison, but he’s averaging 42 yards a punt; so much for that theory. Arenas also doubles as a return specialist; again, since Alabama is all about imbalance, he’s 9th in the nation in kickoff return average and 3rd in the nation in punt return average (with two TDs on the season).
So if there’s a team with no discernible weakness, how on earth do you attack them? Well, they’re going to be straightforward enough about what they do – and it’s not like it doesn’t work, based on this season – so the answer may lie in throwing them a curveball. Both Tennessee and Auburn had success by forcing the Tide out of their comfort zone – ironically, both with recovered onside kicks in part – and it’s possible to beat Alabama in short chunks. I’m not sure it’s possible to win all 60 minutes against this team, but it’s certainly possible to win 15 and hold on for 45. Maybe this comes via Colt McCoy going over the top a couple of times, or Earl Thomas starts jumping routes, but this unit thrives on things going according to plan. It’s up to Texas to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Texas Longhorns
(written by James Lawrence)
Perhaps fittingly for a sport that refuses to get with the times, the Texas Longhorns’ drive to the national championship game started last season (take heart, Boise State fans) when they finished 11-1, en route to 12-1 with a BCS victory, but were inexplicably left out of the national championship game in favor of an Oklahoma team who they’d beaten by double digits earlier that season. The strong season and Fiesta Bowl victory propelled the Longhorns to #2 in the preseason rankings, where they’ve stayed pretty much all season en route to a 13-0 record. Perhaps it was voter sentiment about 2008, perhaps it was the second-toughest schedule amongst the unbeaten teams (Alabama facing the toughest of the five), but one way or another the same system that screwed the Longhorns just a year ago smiled upon them in 2009.
Texas QB Colt McCoy (thanks Icon SMI)
Texas cruised through September, surprisingly holding Texas Tech to just 3 first half points in a much better defensive effort than the Horns put up in their lone loss of 2008. A few weeks later, the Horns won an ugly Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma after ending Sam Bradford‘s season with an unblocked blitz early in the first quarter. The next month was again a breeze, and Texas appeared destined for a title game berth with an 11-0 record. But rivalry games are strange things, and Jerrod Johnson brought his A+ game to account for total 439 yards against what had been one of the most dominant defenses in the nation until that point, but Colt McCoy had an even better game and the Longhorn special teams were able to seal the deal with a late KR TD, their third on kickoffs and fifth overall special teams TD of the season. Finally, in conference championship week, a very underrated Nebraska team (perhaps now getting a bit more respect after their 33-0 Holiday Bowl win over Arizona) nearly pulled off an upset that would have thrown a bit of chaos into the BCS mix, as Ndamokong Suh repeatedly broke through the Texas line to sack and otherwise rattle McCoy into his worst game of the season. But this time the defense, nearly goats of the A&M game, played the role of heroes, holding Nebraska to 106 yards of total offense and picking off three passes, and at the last possible second Hunter Lawrence was able to hit a game-winning, championship berth-clinching field goal.
Texas runs a very pass-heavy spread attack with a little bit of zone read thrown in as the staple of the running game. Just a few years ago, this offense had Cedric Benson and then Jamaal Charles in the backfield and was extremely deadly on the ground. Freshman Tre’ Newton is now the team’s leading rusher, but with just 513 yards on the season (5.0 ypc). McCoy is the next-leading rusher and leads the team in rushing attempts, something Texas had hoped to get away from but apparently were unable to do so. Vondrell McGee and Foswhitt Whittaker frequently spell Newton, and Cody Johnson is the established short yardage back with 12 TDs. The 152.6 ypg and 4.02 ypc that Texas averages as a team are about average for the NCAA, and indeed the lack of a running game anywhere near the level of their passing game is typically cited as the Longhorn offense’s biggest weakness. (might I add, incorrectly cited – more later)
When throwing the ball, Texas has the most accurate passer in the game, first team All-American Colt McCoy, directing a very precise offense. After setting the NCAA record for single season completion percentage last year, McCoy has fallen off to a mere 70.5% accuracy this season, not even good enough to finish tops in the country (second, behind Dan LeFevour’s 71.3%). It’s a top 20-quality passing offense, but perhaps not top 10 level unlike what we saw last season. Jordan Shipley has had an outstanding season, also receiving All-American honors, averaging 104 ypg receiving with 11 rec TD in 13 games, along with having returned two punts of TDs. But nobody else on the team averages over 50 ypg receiving, which is where Texas really misses having a second elite receiver (Quan Cosby) like they did a year ago, when teams couldn’t double team both Cosby and Shipley without seriously sacrificing the rest of the field. At times, Malcolm Williams, James Kirkendoll, Dan Buckner, and Marquise Goodwin have all shown promise during the season, but in the end none has ever emerged as that reliable #2 threat. At least one, and probably two, will have to step up against Alabama.
Overall, the Texas offense is 3rd in scoring (40.7 ppg) despite being just 16th in total yardage (432.4 ypg), and they can thank a 46% 3rd down conversion rate (15th) for that. This is where it really helps to complete 7 out of 10 passes.
Defensively, Texas runs a standard 4-3 base with their SEC-bred coordinator and outstanding personnel at all positions. If defense was the reason Texas fell just short of the title game in 2008, it’s really the reason they’re here in 2009. The defense ranks 8th in scoring, giving up 15.2 ppg, although the A&M game did a little to inflate that. Texas gives up 251.1 ypg (3rd) and is first in the nation in yards per play at 3.8. The strengths of this defense are run defense (62.2 ypg, 1.99 ypc, both 1st), interceptions (24, 1st – leading to the nation’s 10th best pass efficiency defense), and third down conversions (27%, 2nd). The secondary has returned four picks for TDs, including two by All-American safety Earl Thomas (8 int for 149 yards). While Thomas has been a beast, perhaps the biggest improvement in the Texas secondary has been Blake Gideon‘s move from being a safety defenses tended to pick on into an excellent compliment to the conference’s best safety, picking off 5 passes himself and generally playing much, much better coverage than he was known for a year ago.
The DL is also excellent, as you’d expect from the nation’s #1 rushing defense. Sergio Kindle hasn’t been the next Brian Orakpo that many had hoped, but he is a solid pass rusher and is also very useful in stopping horizontal run plays. Lamarr Houston, meanwhile, has been an outstanding presence on the inside, and is probably the single biggest reason why Texas has been able to get away with playing so many smaller defensive ends and relatively quick-but-midsize linebackers compared to, say, Alabama. Three of the top six tacklers on the team play lineman, and tacklers #1 (Roddrick Muckelroy) and #3 (Keenan Robinson) are linebackers – indicative of the fact that the backs and safeties are not having to make a lot of tackles – ie, plays are getting stopped at the point of attack. Indeed, Earl Thomas probably comes in second in tackles more because he has a tendency to come way up to help in run support, as he has excellent recovery/track-back speed which gives him incredible range as a defender. When Bob Stoops analyzed Texas in Rivals’ preview of this game, he singled out Thomas for this very ability as one of the things that makes the Texas defense to difficult to attack, and flat-out said he wished Thomas would go pro.
As has been the case for many seasons, the Texas special teams are a true third prong of the attack. Hunter Lawrence has connected on 22 of 25 field goals, none bigger than the 46-yarder as time expired to win the Big 12 Championship and send Texas to the BCS title game. DJ Monroe, who has been reinstated to the team after being cleared from a midseason arrest for possible DUI, is second in the nation in kickoff return average at 35.8 yards a pop, and has taken two KRs back for touchdowns. They might line up Marquise Goodwin back there with him, as Goodwin was the replacement in his absence and took a kickoff back for a TD against A&M. When Texas fields punts, that duty falls to Jordan Shipley, who comes in 14th in national average at a shade under 13 yards per, and has taken two punts back for scores. Combined with the defense’s interceptions, Texas’ 9 non-offensive TDs leads the nation.
On Defense Against Alabama
Will Muschamp absolutely believes in taking away the run, pressuring the quarterback, and forcing turnovers in the secondary. It’s been fantastic watching the Texas defense become more an more aggressive over the last two years, to the point where they’ve really dictate the flow of the other team’s offense this season. Expect a lot of blitzing from Texas, both in an effort to floodthe backfield to stop Ingram and to pressure McElroy into taking risks against this opportunistic secondary.
Make no mistake about it, Texas (not Florida) has the best secondary Alabama has faced this season. But Alabama has the most physical offensive line Texas has faced by a long shot. These two will strike some kind of balance – how much help does the Texas front seven need to stop Ingram vs how well can the Texas back four bottle up Alabama’s receivers to allow the front to go all-in after the Bama backfield? For that matter, how aggressively is Earl Thomas able to support the run defense without sacrificing coverage soundness? Whereever this balance lies, that will determine how successful these two units are.
On Offense Against Alabama
You know how we mentioned that the Texas running game isn’t really its Achilles heel? Well, yeah. Greg Davis is. I’m expecting Texas to come out in lots of 4 and 5 receiver sets, run the same plays they always do (which were easily pattern-read by Oklahoma and Nebraska defenders… and oh hey, Bob Stoops has made a few visits to Tuscaloosa this winter), and score a couple TDs less than they otherwise would because of repetitive scheming. With the sheer volume of receivers Texas sends out on most plays, Colt McCoy can always just play really amazing and make up for it. But the burden falls on McCoy to make the perfect read and throw in the small amount of time it takes Rolando McClain to tear through the line unblocked, because Davis thinks it’s a good idea not to keep extra blockers in the backfield… um, just about ever. But hey, they’re never going to expect the flanker screen in that situation!
So for me, that’s all it comes down to. McCoy, McCoy, McCoy. I expect Texas to run plays that Alabama generally recognizes, plus Alabama has a bit of an athletic edge here so it’s not like you’re going to have three receivers open or players turning four yard outs into 30 yard gains like we did against A&M. But at the same time, the number of players who can run a route and catch the ball that Texas throws at you makes it unrealistic for a college defense to bottle them all up. When McCoy’s on, there’s not really a lot you can do to stop this offense. But McCoy has to be on this game, because the receivers aren’t going to be running for a ton of yards off some short flare against these defensive backs, and the ground game should be just about useless against this defensive front unless the passing game is already working.
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