Big 12 Preview: Missouri Tigers
July 17th, 2008 by James Lawrence
The Missouri Tigers’ 2007 season started out with a rather unassuming 40-34 victory over perpetual Big Ten cellar-dweller Illinois. It was a game Missouri dominated and then let off the gas, much as they had in their Sun Bowl collapse against Oregon State at the end of 2006.
Perhaps those were the reasons nobody thought much of it at the time, until later on when Illinois was Rose Bowl bound and were the only team to beat Ohio State outside of a BCS Championship game in the last two years.
The Tigers went on mauling opposition, blowing out Texas Tech and defeating Kansas more comfortably than the score showed at the end. Unfortunately, they fell victim to a Sooner fourth-quarter comeback in Norman in October, then two months later were thoroughly outclassed in a Big 12 Championship rematch. The second loss knocked Mizzou out of the BCS at-large picture (okay, the bowl selection committees did that – the Tigers ranked higher than five teams who made it in, two of whom Mizzou had beaten). This led to an epic beatdown of Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, in which Chase Daniel basically handed the ball off to Tony Temple to the tune of a new bowl rushing record. Yeah, I didn’t see that gameplan coming either, but it’s tough to argue with 38-7.
Missouri’s coaching staff remains unchanged from last season – why mess with success? Gary Pinkel will be entering his 8th year at Missouri, complimented by OC Dave Christensen and DC Matt Eberflus. Both were with Pinkel at Toledo and altogether this staff has spent over a decade together. Unfortunately, I don’t consider Pinkel much of a big game coach.
In the Sun Bowl against Oregon State, Missouri threw away a two score lead with 10 minutes to play by abandoning their aggressive offensive gameplan and being content to just give the ball back to an explosive Beavers offense. Of course the 2007 season started with Mizzou nearly squandering a 37-13 lead with 20 minutes to play, as the Illini reeled off 21 straight and had the ball at the Missouri 22 with a minute to play before an interception by Cornelius "Pig" Brown sealed the deal. Then there was the late collapse at Oklahoma. Kansas was allowed to make a comeback in the Border War, and the team looked completely unprepared for a rematch against OU. I’d like to believe that the Cotton Bowl signals a growth in this area, but frankly Arkansas was an overmatched team. I’ll reserve judgment for the 2008 season, as Missouri has the talent to contend for a title but will have to face Illinois, Texas, and Kansas during the regular season before a Big 12 Championship against (likely) Oklahoma or Texas Tech.
Preview
Lots of teams are shaking their heads in disbelief after passing over QB Chase Daniel , the 2007 Big 12 offensive player of the year. The quarterback threw for 4306 yards and a 33-11 ratio off of 68% completions last season, tacking on a modest 253 yards and 4 TDs with his legs. Daniel’s great decision-making ability has him making the high-percentage throw and keep drives rolling. His mobility makes up for his lack of size at 6-0. He could probably use more cardio also. Despite some key losses, enough offensive personnel return that Daniel should put up similar numbers this season.
Missouri loses a great running back in Tony Temple . Temple was a big game running who had explosive outings in each of Missouri’s last two bowl games (nearly setting a Sun Bowl record in 06 to go with his 08 Cotton Bowl record). Overall he gained just over 1000 yards last season but was battling an injury bug, in addition to the fact that Daniel and Maclin were picking up huge chunks of yardage to limit his rushing opportunities. Freshman Derrick Washington should take over Temple’s scatback role, while Jimmy Jackson may once again be the preferred short-yardage and power running man. Both are solid players, but they’re not likely to put up great fantasy numbers.
Moving along, you can’t even think of the phrase "Missouri Wide Recei…" without "Jeremy Maclin!" immediately coming to mind. Maclin had a sick, sick freshman season – catching 80 passes for a modest 1055 yards, but also being active on the ground rushing 51 times for another 375. He was arguably the best kick returner in the country to boot, making him a rare triple threat. Who knows, maybe in 2008 they’ll have him start throwing it? With this offense I wouldn’t put it past them.
What’s more, Daniel’s most frequent target (Martin Rucker) and the Tigers’ third-leading receiver (Will Franklin) are both gone, so Maclin’s touches are almost certain to go up in 2008. Tech’s Michael Crabtree is the obvious #1 receiver in any draft, but if he’s gone and your league awards points for return yards an TDs, Maclin will be worth looking at for another one of the top picks. Danario Alexander and Tommy Saunders are solid WRs who figured into the offense significantly last season as well, sure to produce decent yardage given the offense (ACL injury recovery from Alexander pending, of course). Tight End Chase Coffman wasn’t technically a starter last season, but only because Martin Rucker was just as good. Coffman was first team Big 12 in 2006, and has averaged over 500 yards a season as the team’s #2 TE! As the starter now, Coffman could pull in 700-900 yards in receptions. He is arguably the top TE in the nation, and certainly top 5.
Missouri returns eight defensive starters, but the unit was 37th in scoring last season. The line and linebackers are really solid – linebackers especially with first team Big 12 Sean Witherspoon and his 130 tackles. The secondary could be shaky, but second-team All-American FS William Moore (117 tkl, 8 int!) has the leadership and experience to hold things together well enough for the offense to put the game away. Actually, this defense is a little underrated. Last season they held Graham Harrell and Texas Tech to 10 points, then held Darren McFadden and Arkansas to 7!
They just give up soooo many late points, and in a lot of ways that comes back to the coaches and the playcalling. I mean, there’s a difference between sportsmanship and not running up the score versus giving up a 24 point lead and having the other team have the ball basically in the red zone with a minute to play (Illinois) or having a 21 point lead going into the 4th quarter then finding yourselves up by just 6 with 2 minutes to play facing an onside kick (Kansas). The season opener is a little more understandable (not really), but the KU game is Missouri’s biggest rivalry game, the Big 12 North title was on the line, and the winner was basically going to have a guaranteed spot in the National Championship if they could knock off Oklahoma the following week. How do you even allow a 5% chance of losing, when you should have the game wrapped up beyond any doubt? Okay, I’m ranting, and I wouldn’t even like Missouri if it weren’t for Chase Daniel (HS football star from around where I grew up). Bottom line, don’t draft this defense – passive late-game play inflates their points allowed stats.
All-Big 12 Kicker Jeff Wolfert has hit 87% of his FG attempts over the last two seasons with a long of 54. Missouri ranked 15th in FG made in 2007 and were 6th in PATs made, making Wolfert a solid pick for your kicker. There’s no reason to believe that this offense won’t have him putting up similar, if not better, numbers in 2008.
Of course, there’s really no need to sing the accolades of return man Jeremy Maclin. Maclin eclipsed 1300 return yards and ran three back for touchdowns as a freshman. He’ll easily be in the runnings for All-American once again. Now those 1300 yards account for roughly half of his yardage production, so when you draft him make sure you know how many yards per point are for receptions and rushing vs how many yards per point for returns.
If it’s not immediately obvious, getting Jeremy Maclin should rank high on any drafter’s to-do list. Overall Maclin finished with 2776 all-purpose yards and 16 touchdowns as he was the Tigers’ leading receiver, #2 rusher, and returned both kickoffs and punts. Maclin has great hands, decent size, blistering speed, and dizzying moves.
Overall, 2008 should be a great year for Missouri. They start off facing a pretty good Illinois team, but it’s a team who couldn’t handle Missouri last season and now they don’t even have Rashard Mendenhall. Seeing games listed "at Nebraska" and "at Texas" aren’t as imposing in 2008 as they would be most seasons, despite the fact that Nebraska should be a lot better this year than they were last, and I think it is very likely that Mizzou could be 11-0 going into that game against Kansas, who without Talib won’t be able to slow the Tigers’ firepower, and Todd Reesing cannot beat Chase Daniel in a shootout. That would be 12-0 and in the Big 12 Championship.
Trying to wrap this up, I think they’d beat Texas Tech but lose to Oklahoma who really seems to have the Tigers’ number. If the former happens and the SEC gauntlet claims the entire conference once again, Missouri could claim the prize of getting to hand Ohio State their third consecutive BCS Runners-Up Trophy! So Missouri fans, you know who to root for when those Big 12 South teams square off on Nov 22. Good luck, OU is 54-2 at home under Bob Stoops and really seem to have a handle on winning the Big 12 and losing the BCS Bowls.
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