Oklahoma vs. Texas

This is going to be interesting on both sides of the ball, making it the game of the week as far as that goes.

The Red River Shootout is a game that needs little introduction. The winner has gone on to play in the BCS five of the last six seasons, with the lone derailment the 06 Longhorns after Colt McCoy suffered a late-season injury. The winner played for a national title each year from 2003-05 (and the loser in 08, LOL).

Oklahoma’s two early losses have taken some of the glitter off of this game, earmarked in August as the most anticipated matchup of the 2009 season. In terms of national championship implications, maybe it only matters how Texas does. But in terms of what happens on the field tomorrow, this should be the strongest unit the Sooners have put on the field in 2009. Anything can happen on Saturday.

Longhorns QB Colt McCoy (thanks Scout.com)

Texas mainly operates out of a pass-heavy spread focused on short, safe throws with a threat to go deep if the coverage overplays the flat routes. The overarching strategy here is taking advantage of the higher expected gains of throwing the ball, while minimizing the variation inherent in passing. Until the defense does something to take away these routes, the ideal Texas drive will be a methodical march down the field completing short, high-percentage passes.

Texas will also set up a vertical passing concept out of this, with four receivers running straight upfield to divide a secondary caught with inadequate deep coverage. This can come with a playaction or QB rollout to give the play time to develop, before a receiver comes open 20 yards downfield with room to run after the catch. It’s a nice wrinkle that has been extremely effective when the short-to-mid passing routes are causing problems for the defense.

This is very much a “pass to set up the run” system, in which the defense is spread thin trying to defend all the flat/underneath routes that McCoy will be content to throw, resulting in favorable numbers in the box. Texas will run draws/delays, mix in a little zone read or speed option, but as far as I can tell the runs are coming in response to the defense giving them favorable numbers in the box.

Charged with countering this frustratingly methodical attack is Oklahoma’s Brent Venebles, an aggressive coordinator not known for being patient against the opposing offense. Last season, Oklahoma largely stopped the Texas attack for most of the first half, with the Horns buoyed by a KR TD and a late Sooner turnover to keep things close, but the defense was unable to match Texas’ halftime adjustments as the Longhorn passing game exploded in the third quarter.

An interesting dynamic is going to be what happens when Oklahoma dials up their numerous zone blitz packages. OU has been a very aggressive blitzing team, at times leaning on an (intentionally) unsound defensive coverage in order to send additional defenders on the blitz. Stoops believes that his defense can get to the quarterback before he has a chance to find the hole in the defense, and that over time he will make enough mistakes to offset the big gains.

This creates a really explosive dynamic against an offense like Texas’. When OU dials up these heavy zone blitzes, the Longhorns’ most common passing plays will already have receivers settling in quick holes against this defense without even having to make adjustments. However, the defenders play this very aggressively in coverage, so in addition to the possibility of a quick hit turning into a big gain, there is the possibility of a misread leading to a pick.

Oklahoma's Sam Bradford (thanks Icon SMI)

Oklahoma’s offense changed in 1999 when Mike Leach was brought in from the Kentucky program which had just produced successful seasons for Tim Couch as quarterback despite playing on a lower-rung program in the SEC. His system was of course the Airraid, an offense that has produced the #1 passing offense in the nation almost every season at Texas Tech. Leach left before the 2000 season, but the core of his offense remained and was run successfully by Josh Heupel, who had learned the offense under Leach the year before. In fact, Oklahoma really did not change the Airraid at all until bringing in Kevin Wilson from Northwestern in 2003, and even then the offense remained similar throughout the Jason White years. From Heupel to Nate Hybl to Jason White, OU had a fine stream of “system” quarterbacks and offenses while were really only stopped by a handful of teams, notably all three national championship games including the 13-2 offensive abortion by both teams against Florida State.

Despite the presence of Adrian Peterson, who had shown amazing potential as a freshman, Oklahoma didn’t really have the right quarterback to run the offense we see them using today in 2005 or 06. Sam Bradford is the first true pro talent Oklahoma has had at that position in recent years, and his arrival allows Wilson to run the no-huddle, hurry-up spread that has been one of the nation’s best each of the last two seasons.

Unlike most spread offenses, Oklahoma bases their scheme around power runs. The offense will play three or four legitimate receiving threats to force the defense to play an appropriate personnel. By going hurry-up and not huddling, the defense cannot substitute. Then the Sooners rush their spread personnel to the line, call a zone or power running play, and the defense does not have the proper alignment nor personnel to stop them. This was a little more effective when Jermaine Gresham was playing, because he demanded the respect of a WR in coverage, but when the Sooners shifted into a more compact formation, he could be a strong, effective blocker.

From here, the Sooners set up an aggressive deep-throwing passing game based on playactions and punishing the defense for having to play their secondary up to stop these power runs while defending spread personnel. While the Sooners are missing many receivers from last year, Ryan Broyles‘ return means they will have at least one established deep threat.

The Texas defense has been one of the most unstable units on a dominant program, featuring six DCs since 2003 including a few seasons of having defensive “co-coordinators.” The unit has produced anywhere from above average to excellent results, but the naming of Will Muschamp as “head coach in waiting” will hopefully keep him in Austin and give the players the opportunity to know his system inside and out.

Last season, Muschamp correctly predicted that he could disrupt Oklahoma’s offense enough by taking away their running game, that the Texas offense could win the game for them. In holding the Sooners to 48 yards rushing, Texas gave up 387 yards passing and 5 TDs for Sam Bradford. But those 35 points were not enough to win it, as the Texas offense matched the Sooners yard for yard, having an advantage in play balance, turnovers, and special teams play.

With a defense thus far outplaying their 2008 counterparts, and with the Sooners’ toughest receiver to defend last year, Jermaine Gresham, out for the season, surely the Longhorns have the ability to hold OU to a lower points total than they did a year ago. However, an offense derived from the Airraid featuring one of the nation’s most talented QBs always has the chance to go off in any game.

Game notes: Oklahoma LG Brian Simmons is out for the game. Texas will likely be without RB Vondrell McGee and RB Tre Newton, leaving Foswhitt Whittacker to handle the carries. Whittacker himself was supposed to be a top back for Texas, but missed a lot of time last year dealing with injuries of his own, so this will be a chance for him to earn the coaches’ confidence.

Related posts:

1. Big 12 Roundup: Red River Shootout!
2. Big 12 Roundup: Cue the Red River Rivalry
3. Big 12 Preview: Red River Rivalry leads the Best Conference in NCAAF
4. Big 12 Preview: Texas Tech Red Raiders
5. Big 12 Preview: Texas Longhorns

Tags: Big 12