Capital One Bowl Preview

December 31st, 2009 by Chris Pendley

CapitalOneBowlLogo I can’t shake the feeling that the Capital One Bowl is a generally vague disappointment this season. Both Penn State and LSU opened the season as fringe BCS contenders who needed a bit of help to make the national title game; they finished the season 1-3 against teams in the Top 25 when they played them and more importantly 0-5 against teams that are currently in the top 25. Somehow these teams are ranked 11^th and 13^th in the BCS for reasons that quite frankly pass understanding to me, although they’re somewhat similar.

Both teams got it done on the backs of their defense; Penn State in particular managed to finish in the top 10 nationally in total defense (buoyed in part by obliterating overmatched Akron, Syracuse, and Eastern Illinois outfits; they do get credit for shutting down a Minnesota squad that still had Eric Decker). LSU finished barely outside the top 25, helped by shutdown performances against Louisiana-Lafayette, Vanderbilt, and Tulane – their work against Auburn was a legitimate kill, though.

Quite frankly, I’m a bit surprised that Penn State was above-average offensively as well; the 400 yards per game in total offense (conference play only) seems pretty decent until you start stripping away the layers a bit. Against teams with a winning record, that drops to 325 yards a game; against top-25 teams, that’s now 254 yards a game. LSU is at least a bit more consistent; their 310 yards per game (yes, 310 yards; and you just thought they were bad) drops to 296 against winning teams and 207 against teams in the top 25.

Just for fun, the numbers on defense:

Penn State: 277 yards per game, 318 yards per game against winning teams, 325 yards per game against ranked teams
LSU: 325 yards per game, 341 yards per game against winning teams, 389 yards per game against ranked teams

This …well, this really isn’t that surprising if you followed either of these teams, and it doesn’t bode well for the level of play here. Expect the ugly, and just for the fun of it, Penn State’s Collin Wagner has sucked this year (11/18 made FGs) and neither of these teams can return kickoffs to save their life. This is a bit odd in LSU’s case, as Trindon Holliday is one of the fastest football players in the country, but it would seem that track speed doesn’t necessarily translate; he’s an exceedingly fast single-direction runner, but doesn’t handle changes of direction well. On a kickoff return, this isn’t going to work well.

Penn State QB Daryll Clark (thanks Icon SMI)

Still, these teams did manage to win 19 games somehow (from playing bad teams – oops, this is where I build the teams up, sorry). Penn State QB Daryll Clark has finally managed to live up to expectations, completing close to 62% of his passes with a 23/10 TD/INT ratio (his 23 passing TDs led the Big Ten). Similarly, RB Evan Royster was the best mortal RB* in the Big Ten, running for 1,100+ yards and 6 TDs on the season. That’s more or less what we expected at the outset of the season; sure, you could probably discern that they struggled against better teams, but that’d be giving it away. And it’s not like Clark couldn’t top 43% against ranked teams (oh wait, he couldn’t) or that Royster couldn’t bail out the offense when Clark was struggling (does a combined 30 carries for 105 yards do that? No?), it’s that they put in a consistent effort across the season (but only if you’re name Evan Royster).

*John Clay is impressive, both in yardage and TDs. I figured he’d get stuffed by the Miami front seven, but apparently I wasn’t even close to being right.

LSU has the same issue; RB Charles Scott was supposed to lead the Tigers to national relevance (or at least to a win over Ole Miss). However, he spent the first part of the season dealing with aftereffects from being abducted by aliens and spent the last three games of the season injured. Somehow, at 542 yards on the season he was LSU’s leading rusher, saying more about LSU’s running game than it does Scott; if a unit that talented wasn’t able to step up in the absence of their leading rusher, that’s a mark against the rest of the unit, and it doesn’t bode well. On the plus side, WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Toliver have both been excellent, and it’s helped that QB Jordan Jefferson has been effective enough in a limited role.

However, it’s been a lack of explosiveness that’s killed LSU’s passing attack. Neither of LaFell or Toliver averaged over 14 yards per catch, and Jefferson’s 7.2 yards per attempt (even balanced against a 16/6 TD/INT ratio) screams conservative pass attack. That works if you have a dangerous threat somewhere on the field, but that doesn’t exist in this offense; even true freshman WR Reuben Randle couldn’t get above 15 yards per completion, and TE Richard Dickson – who was a great safety valve threat – didn’t do anything of note all season.

Really, everything in this game point to a low-fi affair involving a lot of punts, a lot of bad offensive plays, and passable defense stifling what little offense happens to accidentally squirt through the mess. Based on how things break down, either both teams should lose (if you think they’re both good) or both teams should win (if you think they both suck); since neither scenario can happen, we’ll go for a reluctant Penn State win, maybe something like 9-6 in a game that won’t do anything to cure a New Year’s Day hangover.

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