If you have been around this site for any length of time (esp. back to the pre-Blogger custom made website abomination of 2005) you know that we prefer deductive reasoning – have an opinion, then gather the data and crunch the numbers in order to determine if your opinion is worth a crap.

Graham Harrell leaves Texas Tech after three years as starting QB, but the program will live on.

Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. That is life my friends.

One thing I have found to work very well is the “Dynasty Study” which looks at three variables that mean the most to fantasy college football and see which schools and/or coaches consistently produce top-shelf offensive output.

Total offensive TDs, Yards per play and yards per game are scraped from the NCAA website, each variable is ranked one through 120.

Lots of numbers and the offenses to watch in 2009 after the jump.

Last month I looked only at the 2008 data and today I am looking at the three-year period of 2006 through 2008 to get a bigger picture look at what schools you should focus on for your fantasy research. I created two different scores – RAW means that each year’s results have an equal weight in the calcualtion (simple average) and a WEIGHTED score that gives added gravity to recent years (exponential or weighted moving average). I thought it would also be interesting to see how much RAW and WEIGHTED differed and found it gave me a momentum measurement – I highlighted the postive momentum in green and the negative momentum in red.
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As we begin our preparation for fantasy college football draft day 2009 (early guess is August 22), we always start from the top down and look at history to give us a framework for the future. Sure – great players graduate and make room for the stars of tomorrow, but what schools consistently produce top statistical performances?

As I have done since 2000 I gather the most fantasy related stats for every FBS team (including those pesky Western Kentucky Hilltoppers) – and once again the state of Oklahoma owns the scoreboards with OU and OSU in the Top Five but both yielding to the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes for the top spot for 2008′s offensive rankings.

Fantasycollegeblitz-dynasties-study-2008.pdf

For a refresher, I rank all teams by yards per play (YPP), yards per game (YPG) and touchdowns per game (TDGM) then add up the rankings. Like for Tiger Woods, lower scores are better…

The Sooner State continues to rule, as all three teams were in the Top Ten in 2007, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys show up in the Top Ten every year since 2006. It is likely that Tulsa could fall out of the top ten due to the departure of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn to Auburn, but Head Coach Todd Graham promises to keep the offense going with the same schemes under Herb Hand.

Probably no shock that nine of the Top Ten are spread offenses (not Texas per se), as are fourteen of the top 20. Later this week I will look at three-year rolling periods and debut the 2006-8 total ranks. Stay tuned.

courtesy of Sportsbook.com, The Top 21 for the College Football 2009 Odds for BCS Championship (entertainment and market sentiment purposes only).

1. Oklahoma +350
2. USC +400
3. Florida +400
4. Ohio St +700
5. Texas +1000
6. Oregon +2000
7. Alabama +2000
8. LSU +2000
9. Virginia Tech +2500
10. Penn St +3000
11. Notre Dame +4000
12. Florida St +5000
13. Georgia +5000
14. Miami FL +5000
15. North Carolina +5000
16. Oklahoma St +5000
17. Georgia Tech +5000
18. California +5000
19. Texas Tech +6000
20. Pittsburgh +6000
21. Mississippi +6000

I got bit of a bug over the holidays so I apologize to my tens of loyal readers expecting these ratings yesterday. It’s the final round of the playoffs and if you find yourself trailing then it’s time to nail a huge lineup and overcome that deficit And if you, like me, went with Chase Daniel in round one then you’re no doubt looking to make up a lot of ground. Here are the players that can
help you do that:

Top 5 Value Quarterbacks

1) Graham Harrell, Texas Tech (19.3M, 76.15 efficiency rating)

Analysis: The big question here is with weeks of preparation can the Rebels figure how to contain Harrell and the high-flying Red-Raider attack? Ole Miss is on a hot streak of late winning their last five conference games and doing so with stellar defensive play. However, none of those teams can even come close to the fire power of Texas Tech. Look for Harrell to play angry here in the wake of him not being invited to the Heisman ceremony.

2) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma (20.0M, 73.23 efficiency rating)

Analysis: The 2008 Heisman Trophy winner versus the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner. Does it get any better than that? Although Bradford is the leading scorer in H2H (which lends to his monstrous salary), I don’t expect him to put up the same kind of numbers we’ve been seeing from him all season. I think the Sooners will focus more on their running game in an attempt to keep the Gator attack off the field. In all honesty, I think your salary cap dollars are wisely spent elsewhere.

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Today’s guest blogger is birthday boy Steve Golden. Steve has followed college football since the Art Schlichter days at Ohio State and has a great take on the remainder of the schedule and the BCS. Take it away Steve…

As you take a look at the first BCS Poll of  2008, there is one thing that is for sure.  At least 10 teams have a shot at Miami January 8^th, 2009.

All ten play another Top 10 team except Alabama and USC.  Bama has been vulnerable lately against Kentucky and Ole Miss and still has a tough game at LSU and a rivalry game in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.  Tommy Tuberville is 7-2 against Bama and will likely be playing to keep his job…..again.  LSU is 3-1 in conference and still has visions of a repeat and will go with the strategy they know best in big situations and 4^th downs…. “Les-ticles”.

USC has by far the easiest remaining schedule and likely will not stumble.  If they do, it may be to a revengeful and rejuvenated Notre Dame team or the cross town rivalry against UCLA.  You can “bet” Rick Neuheisel will have his very average team ready for the game December 6^th, the same day as many of the Conference Tournaments.

Schedule breakdown after the jump… Read the rest of this entry →