Drew’s Thoughts on Athlon Mock Draft
June 12th, 2010 by Drew Smith
For the second year in a row I was honored with the opportunity to partake in Athlon’s Mock draft for their website and magazine. Not only do I get to draft against some of the top college fantasy football brains around, but for me it’s really the kickoff per se of the new fantasy season. Nothing is better than busting out some early projections and rankings in April to really get the brain back focused on what is important after a few months of leading UCF to multiple BCS championships with NCAA football on the old X-box 360. Below I have broken down my strategy and the thought process of my picks and I’ll conclude with how I feel I did.
Drew’s strategy…
As Vince mentioned in his write-up, with the rules of the Athlon’s Mock having 2 starting QBs in the lineup I had to tweak my general rule regarding them. I usually totally ignore the QB position early in the draft because there always seems to be value later. However having to start 2 QBs means I am going to be on the look-out a lot earlier for a QB that I like who is slipping. The rest of my plan is build a core group of RBs and WRs that have minimal risk in their projections in the early rounds and then go for huge upside guys in the mid to late rounds. In college fantasy, if you don’t get one of the Top 3-5 TEs then you might all wait until the end of the draft. There are no TEs this year that I feel overly-excited about so I plan on waiting for this position until later.
courtesy Icon Sports Media
1.7 Shane Vereen, Cal, RB – The first five picks were QBs so I was eyeing a RB the 7th pick. In my opinion Jacquizz Rodgers and Vereen are the two safe picks at the top of the running back list with the rest of the Top 10 all having too much risk for my taste with the 7th pick. While Rodgers would most likely have been my pick, a strong case could be made for Vereen; but, that case was not needed as Steven Lassan took Rodgers 6th. Cal is a fantasy RB haven and without Jahvid Best there, I fully expect Vereen to have a monster season.
2.20 Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma, WR – This is a reception league so getting a solid few receivers as your core is important. As so, I was eying that position with this pick unless someone dropped that should not have. Being in a league of professionals proved their namesake; they made sure no to not let anyone slip to me this early in the draft so I took my 2nd rated WR in Broyles. Greg Salas was the other WR that I considered since his receptions is a major plus in this scoring format, but in the end I felt Broyles was safer. Plus I could just wait and get Salas in the 3rd round, right?
3.31 DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss, WR – Salas made it to pick 27 before Nathan Rush snagged him making me sweat 4 picks hoping that the only other WR I was targeting with this pick left on my board. I got lucky when Braden Gall took Jeff Fuller over Brown and the other three picks went RB. Anyone who has watched Southern Miss games last year saw that CUSA defenses can not cover Brown. With an extra year after his nasty leg break and an offense that should air the ball out even more this year, I am expecting something huge from Brown.
4.42 John Brantley, Florida, QB – OK so I reached here. I am someone that believes there is tremendous value later in the draft at the QB position and if you aren’t getting one of the Top 3-5 QBs then you gain very little in point difference between the 8th QB points total and the 20th QB points total. So why did I take Brantley and why did I feel the need to take him in the 4th round? Good question. 10 quarterbacks came off the board and when looking at my available QBs on my list, Brantley was the one guy that I really wanted. On my RB list, Toben Opurum was the guy I really wanted as well so I took the guy with more media hype in Brantley hoping Opurum would make it to my next pick.
5.55 Toben Opurum, Kansas, RB – My gamble paid off as Opurum was there for me in the 5th round. A great value in my opinion as Opurum should be the workhorse for a new Kansas offense that will put a heavier focus on the running game.
6.66 G.J. Kinne, Tulsa, QB – Whether you agree with the Brantley pick or not, I certainly made up with it by what I consider the first major steal of the draft. Kinne who by Tulsa standards had a terrible year last year still out-performed this draft slot so there is only upside from here. Now all I have to do is hedge by taking hotshot youngster Shavodrick Beaver at the end of the draft and I have a Top 10 fantasy QB in the 6th round.
7.79 MiQuale Lewis, Ball State, RB – Needed another RB and with 29 already off the board it is safe to say that most of the backs on my board had some major question marks. While I like to minimize risk in the early rounds, in these mid to late rounds it is time to take guys with upside. Lewis is talented enough to be a Top 20 player if the Ball State offense can help him out and with more consistent play expected from the O-Line, this is a real possibility.
8.90 Tyler Stradford, North Texas, WR – This can go down as my second reach of the draft as I could have probably gotten him several rounds later. I am extremely high on the ex-Oklahoma Sooners playing for a wide open offense in the Sun Belt and just couldn’t risk not getting him.
9.103 Sam McGuffie, Rice, RB – Keeping with the theme of high upside players, McGuffie was able to have success running in the Big Ten on a bad Michigan so it is scary what he might be able to do against the weak CUSA defenses.
10.114 Alex Torres, Texas Tech, WR – There is a lot of uncertainty in the fantasy world regarding Texas Tech and while I have my doubts as to whether they will still be the fantasy power-house of the last decade, getting Torres in the 10th round is a heck of a value.
11.127 B.J. Daniels, USF, QB – It really pains me to take any player from this team but that is for another time. The reality is that Daniels is a difference maker on the field and while he will struggle against good defenses he has some major cream puffs on his schedule making him a great 3rd QB who you can plug in and get Top 10 QB stats for that week.
12.138 Kris Adams, UTEP, WR – I was pleasantly surprised to see Adams still on the board and while head coach Mike Price seems to find a way screw things up, you have to like to get a player as talented as Adams in the 12th round.
13.151 George Bryan, NC St, TE – Bryan got into some trouble in the off-season and there is some uncertainty with him for the ’10 season which allowed him to fall to me in the 13th round. If he can put it behind him and get in the field, I got a top TE in the 13th round.
14.162 Florida Defense – Too much talent, too many weak offenses on their schedule to ignore despite breaking in a whole bunch of new starters. This defense is just going to reload and not rebuild.
15.175 Kyle Brotzman, Boise St, K – The Broncos return 10 starters on offense and while I wonder how consistent each individual player will be on a weekly basis, one thing is for certain: this team is going to put up a ton of points.
16.186 Charles Clay, Tulsa, RB – Clay was on most people’s sleeper list last year and I ranked him the lowest in the industry. The rationale and excitement for Clay last year still apply for this year and while I have my doubts, I am willing to roll the dice on the experts being a year early on Clay with the 16th round pick.
17.199 Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina, RB – Every year there is a freshman running back that seems to make an instant fantasy impact. In order for this to occur, not only does their need to be talent but also opportunity to be the workhorse. Lattimore could have gone to any school in the country but chose South Carolina because Steve Spurrier convinced him that he will be his workhorse out the gate.
18.210 Josh Smith, UCLA, WR – I was targeting a WR with my last pick after not taking one since round 12. Smith showed he can put up fantasy stats playing for the offensive inept Colorado so it is safe to assume he can make an impact for UCLA who is desperately searching for a play-maker.
How did it all turn out?
Grabbing GJ Kinne in the 6th round was exactly what I was hoping to do with the QB position, however taking John Brantley in the 4th was a reach and totally not what I planned on doing. BJ Daniels late is a nice backup, thus giving me a nice group that has the potential to be strength if Kinne and Brantley don’t disappoint.
I received a great RB in Shane Vereen but by getting all smitten with Brantley I was not able to get that solid 2nd back who is carries little risk. This caused me to go after a bunch of backs that I like and who had nice upside but will need at least 2 of them to pan out or this will be a huge area of weakness for my team.
With Ryan Broyes and DeAndre Brown as my top two WRs this is clearly a position of strength for me and will most likely have to carry my team. Add in Stradford, Adams and Torres to round out a very deep group of WRs that has 6 players who could easily be starters on most teams. Perhaps I should package one or two in a deal for a running back, now I am using my head.
Overall, the team could be good but it relies on my QBs being special and that is just not my style so I have to say this not my favorite team I have ever drafted, but one that is capable of making run if some of the running backs come through.
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