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Feast or Famine: Maxing Out the Edges
By John Huss | September 17, 2008
This entire article is going to center around making use of the Blitz Index . We enter into week 4 of the season and the moves you make now will help separate your team from the rest of the league. Your stiffest competition is going to match you player for player at QB, both RB slots and at least the top two WRs. However, how you manage the edges of your lineup (TE, K, D/ST and WR3) will have a major role in whether you are looking forward to basketball season or vying for a league title. Since team construction will vary from owner to owner, some of the edges are easier to figure out than others. Let me start with TE and WR3 first.
TE is a position on the edge only if you weren’t able to draft a top flight TE. If you own Dennis Pitta from BYU (408 yards, 3 TDs), you aren’t going to do anything other than plug him into your lineup week in and week out. However, if you drafted Travis Beckum or Rob Gronkowski, then you’ve had to deal with injury recovery time or mystery illnesses. Which means you’ve been forced so far to start lesser options at TE. Additionally, in a 12 team or larger league, there are a number of teams that missed out on the top TEs and have huge holes at this spot in the lineup. Now is the time to add an extra layer of analysis to decide who to start at TE going forward. For that matter, most owners already have come to the realization that their draft didn’t go so well in covering the WR3 position. I’ll also cover what we can do to address that hole.
When sorting thru the Index, you’ll see that there are currently 8 teams giving up 300+ passing yards per game. There are also 7 teams giving up 6+ TDs per game. If only it was that easy to just target players playing against those teams. Many of those teams are facing FCS schools or have byes this week so there isn’t anyone from the opposition to use. However, if we mix and match some stats, we can see some matchups that should help your roster.
Utah St vs Idaho - Utah St. has been lit up this season, giving up 50 ppg. Idaho isn’t exactly a powerhouse but TE Eddie Williams broke out last game with 161 yards and a TD. He won’t keep that up all season but you only need him to get half those yards along with a TD. I’m taking my own advice and already picked him up in one of my leagues. Utah St. is horrible against the run so look for Idaho to try and focus on that first. That should set up some play action passes or redzone looks for Williams. On the other side, Idaho has almost given up nearly as many points and has allowed more passing yards against its D. The problem is the Utah St. offense just might be worse so the best option from them is WR Otis Nelson who does have 2 TDs so far this season.
Rutgers vs Navy - The 2008 season has not been kind to Rutgers and playing Navy won’t be easy. However, Navy is vulnerable to the pass, giving up 324 ypg and about 30 ppg. If a fickle owner got weary of carrying WR Tiquan Underwood , he might be a nice pickup off the waiver wire. Even if he isn’t available, TE Kevin Brock is a perfect spot start. QB Mike Teel hit him 5 times against North Carolina, one of those resulting in a score. He’ll have his chances against this weak Navy defense.
San Jose St. vs Stanford - Stanford is allowing just under 300 ypg and is giving up about 33 ppg. With star WR Kevin Jurkovich out with mono, look for WR Jalal Beauchman to have his best game of the season. He offers a 6′4", 220 lb target and probably will be facing 1 on 1 coverage as Stanford keys on RB Yonus Davis and WR Davis Richmond.
Central Michigan vs Purdue - Purdue took a very tough loss vs Oregon this weekend. The game was right there and a wide left and a wide right later, they go home unsuccessful. Enter the Chippewas, who are giving up 285 ypg and 32 ppg. Curtis Painter hasn’t been able to get on track and this is the game that could jump start things. Starting WR Keith Smith could benefit from this soft defense playing alongside already owned WR Greg Orton.
FAU vs Minnesota - The good news is that FAU won’t have to play in the rain this weekend…hopefully. After that water logged 17-0 loss to Michigan St., the Owls should be happy to get away and try to find their passing offense. The key spot start here is TE Jamari Grant . Minnesota has a bend don’t break feel to their defense. Although they give up about 268 ypg, they don’t result in a ton of TDs. Expect him to produce something closer to what he did against Texas (4 touches, 93 yards) with a possible shot at adding a TD to those totals.
You can also use the Blitz index for kicker ideas. I usually go thru 4-5 kickers in a season due to bye weeks and some potential matchups. I won’t go into as much detail around the kickers on this list because let’s face it, at the end of the day, they are still kickers.
Kai Forbath , UCLA vs Arizona - This one is likely the big surprise here but UCLA is not as bad as the team that got destroyed by BYU and not as good as the team that beat Tennessee. In the game against Tennessee, he hit FGS of 41 and 42 yards along with 3 XPs. He did miss both attempts against BYU but I’m writing that game off and giving him some rope against an Arizona D that is good enough to stop TDs but has allowed the most FGs against.
Tino Amancio , Idaho vs. Utah St. - This game again? If you couldn’t go thru with TE Eddie Williams then you could consider Amancio. Utah St. not only gives up huge points, they give up quite a few FGs.
Matt Bosher , Miami (FL) vs Texas A&M - A&M is another team that has shown a bend don’t break defense (of course, the O didn’t help the D much against Arkansas St.). Miami’s offense on the other hand isn’t really that powerful to be the ones to finally break this D. So with that in mind, look for Bosher to have a few attempts. Also, Bosher has range as he’s already hit a 50+ FG
The last part of maxing out the edges is what you do with your D/ST spot. Here is where I may differ most from other owners or advice guys. I take a D/ST late in the draft and it should be a top 12 team. The talent on the team is good enough to cause turnovers, which opens the door for potential TDs. The team also has good kick return talent that can cover some ground and even maybe break one. I ride them till their bye week pops up and then move them for the best replacement I can find. Many owners will try to play matchups and carry multiple Ds. Points from this position is more of a luck factor and you never know when the talent you drafted is finally going to cash in on those TDs. It might come against the creampuffs…but it can also happen vs. the big dogs. If you do only carry one team, then look for a replacement by targeting teams that have forced turnovers, that get to the QB and has some nice returns yards…don’t just look on your league management site for which has the most fantasy points YTD. Alas, this is the one spot that the Blitz Index doesn’t really help at but U-Sports, Prepro Sports and CBS all have sorts that can help you find what you need.
Topics: College Football, Feast or Famine, John Huss |
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