Feast or Famine: Second Helpings
September 4th, 2009 by Adam Mankuta
This weekend, as we enter a new college football season, the first feature in our Weekly column “Feast or Famine” will take a look at coach’s impact as they enter their 2nd season in a new program. Even though many coaches are in their second season, only a select few will have a major fantasy impact and have a record with proven results to go on.
Bobby Petrino, Arkansas
Bobby Petrino (pictured left courtesy Icon SMI) enters his second season as coach at Arkansas with a full season under his belt and a chance to prove some doubters wrong. 2008 was a rebuilding season for the Razorbacks after losing Running Backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to the NFL. Now, with Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett under center, things are looking up.
Petrino’s 1st and 2nd year at Louisville
2003 Louisville vs. 2004 Louisville
| QB NOTES | RB NOTES | WR NOTES | TEAM NOTES | |
| 2003 | Lefors-3,145 yds, 17 TD, 10 INT | 2 rushers 500+ yards | 2 players 25+ receptions | 9-4 |
| 2004 | Lefors-2,596, 20 TD, 3 INT & Brohm 819 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT | 4 rushers with 340+ yards | 1 receiver 40+ catches | 11-1 |
What this Means
…is that if Ryan Mallett has taken the year seriously and is ready to mature, he will have a solid 1st season with Arkansas. Not only did Stefan Lefors become less prone to mistakes in his 2nd year under Petrino, the coach allowed hot shot prospect Brian Brohm to play and gain experience. The program is in Mallett’s hands, so expect a big season. Another thing you may see is a receiver develop into the true number one. Chances are, that will be their playmaking Tight End D.J. Williams, who can expect more than the 61 catches he had in 2008. All in all after that immense turn around in Louisville the Razorbacks are pumped, but playing in the SEC is never easy.
Art Briles, Baylor
Briles (pictured left courtesy Icon SMI) is in charge of one of the most in-demand fantasy quarterbacks this season; Robert Griffin, who was phenomenal during his freshman year. Before taking over for Baylor, Briles led Houston having some of the most potent offenses in college football during that time. He also had the luxury of a future NFL QB Kevin Kolb on his roster.
Briles’ 1st and 2nd year at Houston
2003 Houston vs. 2004 Houston
| QB NOTES | RB NOTES | WR NOTES | TEAM NOTES | |
| 2003 | Kolb-3,131 yds, 25 TD, 6 INT | 4 rushers with 460+ yards | 3 receivers with 7+ TD | 7-6 |
| 2004 | Kolb-2,766 yds, 11 TD, 6 INT | 1 800 yard runner | 1 receiver with 5 TD | 3-8 |
What this Means
Kolb had a down 2004, throwing 14 less touchdowns. As you can tell by the numbers, Briles attempted to get his ground game going by focusing on one back. This year it’s a positive outlook for Griffin, who will be allowed to run around and make plays and Jay Finley (the Bears lead back), who is coming off a year which saw him run for over 800 yards and 7 touchdowns. Do not expect big things however from the Bears receivers since only one, Kendall Wright, had over 50 catches in 2008. He may be a sleeper fantasy play against weak defenses, however Griffin will be in total control of the show and should help Briles avoid a 2nd year down turn like he had at Houston.
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech
Paul Johnson (pictured left, courtesy Icon SMI) came to Georgia Tech with a reputation for running the best option offense in the nation. The numbers do not lie. Johnson utilizes his best weapons on offense, no matter what position they play. In 2002 it was his quarterback Chris Candeto who scored 16 times, while in 2003 it was Kyle Eckel, who rushed for 1,249 yards and 10 scores. If you are a workhorse Johnson will ride you.
2002 Navy vs. 2003 Navy
| QB NOTES | RB NOTES | WR NOTES | TEAM NOTES | |
| 2002 | Candeto-843 passing yards, 5 TD | 7 rushers with 200+ yards. 5 rushers with 4+ TD. QB’s combine for 23 rushing TD | No receiver 17+ catches | 2-10 |
| 2003 | Candeto-1,140 passing yards, 7 TD | Eckel-1,249 yards, 10 TD. Candeto 16 rushing TD | 1 receiver with 20 receptions | 8-5 |
What this Means
Two guys should be on every fantasy team in 2009; Jonathan Dwyer, who rushed for over 1,300 yards and 12 TD’s in 2008 and QB Josh Nesbitt, who will not throw many touchdown passes, but will rush for close to 700 yards and likely improve on his 7 TD’s from last year. Candeto was consistent in that he rushed for 5, then 7 scores. So with another year in Johnson’s system, maybe Nesbitt cracks double digits, while Dwyer chases the Heisman.
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
Rich Rodriguez (pictured left, courtesy Icon SMI) is in for a very interesting year in Ann Arbor. Amidst allegations of practice violations, while trying to return a proud program to respectability, Rodriguez will have his hands full. However, if his track record is any indication, he will rely heavily on the rushing game- primarily his lead back- while allowing the quarterback to be patient and make plays only when they see a chance to make a big one.
2002 West Virginia vs. 2003 West Virginia
| QB NOTES | RB NOTES | WR NOTES | TEAM NOTES | |
| 2002 | Marshall-1,616 yards, 9 TD | 3 rushers with 600+ yards. Cobourne leads with 1,710 and 17 TD | 1 receiver with 40+ receptions. 3 receivers with 2+ TD | 9-4 |
| 2003 | Marshall-1,339 yards, 7 TD, 9 INT | 1 rusher over 200 yards. | 5 receivers with 20+ receptions | 8-5 |
What this Means
Clearly there are two trends. The first is that Avon Cobourne became the feature of the offense in his second season and the other two players who rushed for over 600 yards in 2002 became role players. This is great news for Brandon Minor owners who are looking for more yardage after his 500+ yard 1st year under Rodriguez. He did score nine times, but as the numbers show, the coach will ride his one back in the second year, so a 1,200 yard, 14 TD season is within reach. The second trend is that the quarterback position will not be a fantasy factor. That is not good news for freshman Tate Forcier and his owners, who will endure plenty of ups and downs during this year, while relying on Minor to move the line of scrimmage. One thing to remember as well is that with a very small passing game, no Michigan receivers are worth owning on your team.
Houston Nutt, Ole Miss
Nutt (pictured left, courtesy Icon SMI) is in an interesting position in 2009 as his Ole Miss group is a sleeper BC contender if they could ever get back Florida in the SEC. When taking a look at his first two years at Arkansas it is clear that Nutt put the ball in his best player’s hands, QB Clint Stoerner. Although his numbers dropped in 1999, the ground game became more important, which is an interesting trend heading into 2009, 10 years later.
1998 Arkansas vs. 1999 Arkansas
| QB NOTES | RB NOTES | WR NOTES | TEAM NOTES | |
| 1998 | Stoerner-2,629 yards, 26 TD | 2 rushers over 650 yards | 3 receivers over 25 catches, 1 with 1,000 yards and 7 TD | 9-3 |
| 1999 | Stoerner-2,293 yards, 19 TD | 3 rushers over 220 rushing yards. | 5 receivers with 20+ receptions. Leading WR totals drop | 8-4 |
What this Means
Just as he did at Arkansas, Nutt has an experienced QB to hand the reigns to in Jevan Snead. You have to remember that if not for Colt McCoy, Snead would be the starting QB for Texas. Snead will play steady and probably duplicate his solid numbers from 2008. The one interesting thing to take notice of is the three headed monster at RB which looks similar to that of the 1999 Razorbacks who had 3 rushers gain over 220 yards. While Dexter McCluster gets all the attention because of his big play ability and skill receiving out of the background, Cordera Eason and Brandon Bolden cannot be ignored. The receivers are in the same boat, as three players caught at least 40 passes, with the team leader only amassing 44. Expect similar balance in 2009, with McCluster being the only reliable offensive fantasy weapon outside of Snead.
June Jones, SMU
Jones (pictured left, courtesy Icon SMI) is a master at his craft and his craft is a high octane passing offense. Not only can Jones harvest hot-shot QB’s like they are corn, he knows how to develop a vast group of receivers who put up staggering numbers. Every now and again, whether it is Ashley Lelie or Davone Bess, they make the NFL. Now entering his second season at SMU, Jones has finally settled on his QB after a long debate in the 2008 off-season. Thus, Bo Levi Mitchell has the keys to the Ferrari.
1999 Hawaii vs. 2000 Hawaii
| QB NOTES | RB NOTES | WR NOTES | TEAM NOTES | |
| 1999 | Robinson-4,119 yards, 29 TD | Weaver-729 rushing yards, 4 TD | 4 receivers 40+ catches. 3 receivers 8+ TD | 9-4 |
| 2000 | Chang-3,041, 19 TD | Fenderson-651 rushing yards, 7 TD | 5 receivers 30+ catches. 1 receiver 7 TD | 3-9 |
What this Means
The major thing to identify immediately is to not over react about the drop off in pass yards from 1999-2000. Timmy Chang was brand new to the offense and in his first year as the starter, yet STILL threw for over 3,000 yards and almost 20 scores. Not to mention they relied on Fenderson on the ground more, as evidence by his 7 touchdowns. Also in Jones’ second season, it became clear that less receivers were involved, while those that were got the ball more, and only one of them hit the end zone more than seven times. Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders are guaranteed to repeat their numbers of 2008 (each gained over 900 yards and scored 9 times), but finding the 3rd wideout to have an impact comes down to Cole Beasley and Terrance Wilkerson. Our choice is Beasley, catching 18 more balls then Wilkerson did in 2008 and seemed to pick up the offense a little bit more. The final aspect to consider is the running game, which was non-existent in 2008. Do not expect that to change in 2008 as SMU will likely be playing from behind and need to toss it all over the field. In 2008 the Mustangs leading rusher Andrew McKinney gained a total of 190 yards….during the ENTIRE SEASON.
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