Feast or Famine: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
September 2nd, 2008 by John Huss
I left the UCF game on Saturday completely drenched and dejected. Another season of hurricane’s pouring buckets on us and another season knowing that our upcoming game against USF is not going to be as forgiving as South Carolina St. To take my mind off of it, I turned on the XM and got a blast from the past. The Clash were jamming away and it was a song I heard quite often waaaay back when I was attending UCF. No, it wasn’t Rock the Casbah or even London Calling. I’m talking about Should I Stay or Should I Go.
This led me to drift off and think about this weekend of football. Of course, my fiancee hates when I do that while driving. Thankfully I managed to get us home in one piece. Anyway, the song gave me my theme for the first edition of Feast or Famine. As a reminder, this segment will hit on various fantasy strategies, waiver wire considerations and things to contemplate while managing your team thru the college football season. Today, I’ll use this space to talk about the waiver wire.
In a recent conversation with Jeff Erickson from Rotowire.com about his Expert League team (Fantasy College Football Invitational), I asked if he sat on guys for a few weeks or if he attacked the waiver wire immediately. His answer matched up with my thoughts, that you have to attack the wire early to grab players that slipped thru the cracks. No matter how much you analyze data, names fall thru the cracks in every fantasy sport. With that said, here are few thoughts on names that will get some attention:
Should I Stay – these names need to stay on your waiver wire….
1. RB Shun White, AF – Talk about falling thru the cracks…we didn’t even have Mr. White ranked in our top 150 RBs (with good reason. We have to remember that Week 1 games are deceptive, so take his school record setting 348 yards with a grain of salt. Navy played Towson, not Wake Forest or Rutgers or Notre Dame like they will later this year. The team needed to shuffle its lineup around with QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada injured, giving White more reps than usual. The triple option is used to exploit what the defense is giving Navy and that just so happened to be to White’s advantage that day. Look back to last season and you see he opened with 122 yards against Temple….and never saw 100+ yards again until Navy’s 10th game against North Texas. I suspect White will be a classic fantasy tease, killing you the weeks you start him and blowing up when you finally sit him. Let someone else in your league deal with that headache.
2. WR Nathan Palmer, N. Illinois – Palmer had a great first game, compiling 170 yards and 2 TDs. Vince Mullins and I had a bit of a debate about him during a NFL draft this past Sunday. Vince stated that the Huskies offense would set up plenty of ops for QB Chandler Harnish to go over the top to Palmer. I didn’t disagree with that. However, deep patterns require many things to have them go right. Timing has to be there, the defender has to bite on the fake, the line has to hold the pocket just long enough and so many other things. Palmer only had 3 receptions in the game. A little wind or a stutter step too many and maybe he doesn’t even get those. Touches equals fantasy consistency and I think you’ll find Palmer being another example of a fantasy tease throughout the season.
3. QB Lyle Moevao, Oregon St. – 404 passing yards and 3 TDs is nothing to sneeze at but please put away the box of tissues. Last season, Moevao had a pass completion percentage of 53% and a TD/INT ration of 2/6. His opening game against Stanford saw him complete 63% of his passes but he still threw 2 picks against his 3 TDs (sacked twice). Underneath the stats, I don’t see anything that makes me excited and I expect him to regress back to the norm. There are better choices to pick from if you need another QB.
4. RB Nic Grigsby, AZ – Let’s set some context around his 169 yards and 2 TDs. There is a reason this guy was rated as the 112th RB in our preseason cheatsheets. Last season, he had 3 big games (yardage-wise, he only had 2 TDs all season) surrounded by even more games of mediocrity. This game was against Idaho, not exactly a team known for its ability to defend (they gave up 37ppg last year). Unless you have an uncanny ability to know when to spot start a guy, he should be passed on when you submit your waiver requests this week.
5. WR Will Judson, Illinois – Yes, the Juice got loose against Mizzou and tried to rally his team in a second half thriller. And yes, Judson did his part in that by tallying 124 yards and 2 scores. However, he is down on the depth chart for this squad and stands at all of 5’8″. Besides that, it’s not like you’ll see 400+ passing days from Juice everytime he suits up. So when those numbers normalize, you’ll see Arrelious Benn and Chris Duvalt (he had 104 yards and 2 TDs against Missouri) get the bulk of the stats.
Or Should I Go – these are guys you should go and pick up this week
1. RB Da’Rel Scott, Maryland – In deeper leagues, this guy should have been picked up. If he is sitting out there on your waiver wire, pick him up. In previous years, Maryland was known for RBBC between Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore. In this game, Scott got the ball 26 times (197 yards) and his only challenger was Davin Meggett with 7 carries. Scott was our #54 RB, with the thought being that he would be the top end of a job share (getting 700+ yards and around 8 TDs). Those stats have value on the bench but if he continues to get this type of workload, you are seeing a guy that can play well above his preseason ranking.
2. WR Mark Dell, Michigan St. – In the preseason, our WR rankings focused on freshman Fred Smith stepping in and trying to do his best to have a Crabtree or Maclin impact for the Spartans. Take a seat youngster as Mark Dell put his stamp on this team Saturday with his 202 yards and a score. I also like that he got 9 touches in this game and those kind of looks will translate to numbers much like we saw out of Devin Thomas last year (1,260 yds, 8 TDs).
3. QB Dustin Grutza, Cincy – Grutza erased some doubts about whether he can lead this offense. Coming into this season as our #55 QB, he was discounted in the rankings based on Cincy as a whole being down based on a high graduation rate. Last season, this team got 3,000+ yards and 30+ TDs from this position so the system can turn out some good fantasy numbers. Grutza is also blessed with a team that is flush at the WR position. He may have some games of inconsistency but it would be wise to grab him now to round out your bench strength.
4. WR Dominick Goodman, Cincy – see above…if the QB gets discounted in the rankings, then his WRs get knocked down as well. Don’t pick up both Cincy guys as it’s never a good idea to start a QB/WR combo. However, if you need a WR, this guy can be a legit add to your roster. 10 catches, 144 yards and 2 TDs won’t happen all the time, but he will be a consistent part of this offense. Expect the senior to have numbers to match last years with an upside to have a shot at 1,000 yards.
5. RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma St. – Going into this season, we thought the bigger Beau Johnson would get the nod to carry the load for the Cowboys. However, on Saturday Hunter got the bulk of the reps and turned those 23 carries into 107 yards and 2 TDs. Last year, Dantrell Savage put up 1,272 yards with 9 scores, despite QB Zac Robinson getting 847 yards and Hunter getting 696 yards. Those types of numbers are not out of reach for Hunter so grab him if he wasn’t drafted in your league.
Should I stay or should I go….I don’t know!!!
QB Chris Nickson, Vandy – In 2006, I was all over QB Matt Ryan, stating that he would go gonzo in the ACC and get over 3,500 yards and around 30+ TDs. Instead, he played hurt much of the season and put up a weak 2,942 yards and 15 TDs. I stuck with him in 2007 and insisted that 2006 was a fluke. This time, he came thru for me with 4,507 yards and 31 TDs on his way to being the #3 pick in the NFL draft.
What does that have to do with Chris Nickson? Well, I was all over him last year to have a big season…only to have him lose his job early. He was tabbed the starter just before Saturday and had a nice game with 91 passing yards, a passing TD, 166 rushing yards (on 20 carries) and 2 rushing TDs. If he can return to form and look like the player he was in 2006, he’ll be a nice dual threat QB in the mold of Zac Robinson, Jake Locker, Adam Weber and cough..ahem…Tim Tebow.
Ok, so my expectations may be a little lofty. Its for that reason I’m picking this guy up in all my leagues but only placing him here on the Feast or Famine. It’s just like I say in my disclaimer that I’ve used in the past for Sleepers:
Warning: Sleepers should be used in moderation. Overuse of sleepers may have adverse reactions such as loss of games. Side effects include potential upset behavior resulting in angry wives, girlfriends, co-workers. If you find yourself overusing sleepers, please contact your league patsy and trade on hype to get more established players.
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