Feast or Famine: Sticky Rice

September 16th, 2009 by Adam Mankuta

QB Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU (thanks Icon SMI)

Week 3’s edition of Feast or Famine will provide fantasy owners some insight as to whether or not certain players are good bets to keep up their current pace (Feast) or are due for a drop off because of better competition, their skills etc., (Famine).

Which Bo Levi Mitchell should we expect? Is he the feast we saw against UAB or the famine we saw in the display against Stephen F. Austin?

Feast is the only answer that can be given. In any June Jones offense, you are going to have to take the good and take the bad. Against the Lumberjacks of SFA, Mitchell threw for only 202 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. Not the type of performance you are looking for against a team that doesn’t play in Division 1-A. Then against a red hot UAB team coming off a manhandling of Rice, Mitchell threw for 353 yards, 3 scores and 2 picks. While the picks will always be there because of the amount of times he throws the ball, Mitchell should be good for 250 yards and 2 scores every game. It comes as a surprise that he is owned in only 77% of Athlon Sports Fantasy college football leagues. If you can find someone that is more consistent, so be it. But the feast definitely outweighs the famine with any high-octane passer, especially one with the benefit of being coached by June Jones.

Can we expect backups such as Shane Vereen, Toben Opurum & Stafon Johnson to have solid contributions making them playable all year?

Each back is a different case, thus deserves a different answer.

Vereen is a feast back, not only because the Cal offense is chugging on all cylinders, but he has great hands and score out of the backfield. Despite playing behind the nation’s top back in Jahvid Best, Vereen has put up massive numbers through two weeks and needs to be owned because of the potent Bears attack.

Shane Vereen rushed for 48 yards and 1 touchdown when the California Bears defeated the Maryland Terrapins (thanks Icon SMI)

Opurum is a famine back. Despite his back to back games with a score and playing in a high scoring Kansas offense, once the Jayhawks get into conference play, there will be less opportunity to bring him in to eat clock. Jake Sharp is the main back when the Jayhawks turn to the run, so enjoy the matchups while they play cupcakes, but keep an eye on if Sharp sustains an injury. If you are intrigued however, Opurum is available in 88% of Athlon Sports Fantasy college football leagues.

Stafon Johnson is another famine back. He will not get steady touches as long as Joe McKnight is running like a Heisman candidate and sometimes the goal line carries he’s getting and converting will dry up. Another running back to keep an eye on, but one to leave on the waiver wire, as evidence by his 41% ownership in Athlon Sports Fantasy college football leagues.

Will any of the following defenses, which are currently giving up less than 5 points per game, even finish the season allowing 10 or less?

Florida, Boston College, Boise State, Kansas and Arizona State

All of the teams are famine except for Boise State. Florida’s defense is electric at times and quicker than many teams in recent memory, but playing in the SEC will take away their chances. Same goes for Kansas playing in the Big 12, BC playing in the ACC and ASU in the Pac-10. The only team that is a feast and has an outside chance is Boise State and that is because of their schedule. The Broncos do play Nevada, Tulsa, and Hawaii during their conference schedule. However, their defense can also dominate the likes of UC-Davis, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, and Utah State. Take into account that last year Boise allowed only 12.3 points per game.

For the rest of the season, is Tate Forcier an every week feast play, a famine play or a middle of the road matchup play?

Forcier is an interesting case because of the two opponents he has faced in Western Michigan and Notre Dame. The WMU game showed that he is explosive against a lesser opponent, while the game against the Irish showed he can not only make plays in pressure situations, but that he can overcome adversity when falling behind. The Big 10 has showed that it does not have a true power team outside of Penn State, so Forcier should prove to be a solid option for fantasy owners, especially those that do not allow non-BCS players. Which doesn’t explain why even after the huge Notre Dame win, only 65% of owners believe he is worth considering as a roster option in Athlon Sports Fantasy College football leagues. Not only can he throw the winning TD as evident by their win against the Irish, his 4^th down TD run showed he can make plays when not airing it out. This QB seems to be an every week Feast QB.

Can Freddie Barnes of Bowling Green continue his 12.5 receptions per game average for long?

The answer is surprisingly feast and the reason is simple, opportunity and skill. However, it may be no secret, since Barnes is owned in 88% of Athlon Sports Fantasy college football leagues. Barnes plays in a league that seems to be playing wide open in 2009, as Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Marshall and Toledo are putting up plenty of points, meaning BGSU will be involved in plenty of shootout. Another factor that helps Barnes is senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan who is averaging over 270 yards passing per game to go along with 30.5 completions per game. Lastly it seems as if Barnes is the only reliable target on the roster. No one else on the team has more than 8 catches so far in 2009, so Barnes may be double teamed in the near future, but so far this season he has been incredible.

Can Ryan Williams and David Wilson both be fantasy backs for Virginia Tech as they were in their Week 2 win against Marshall?

Famine. The Hokies can surely have days like they did against Marshall where each back rushes for over 100 yards and scores, however it is very rare for a team to develop two must start fantasy rushers. Especially in an offense that features the QB posing as a running threat as well. Matthews is the clear feast back, racking up 235 yards in two games to go along with 5 scores. Wilson, unless Matthews gets banged up or they prove this for a few more weeks, is a famine back with long term potential. Wilson is currently owned in only 28% of Athlon Sports Fantasy college football leagues -which seems about right. Compare that to Williams, who is owned in 92% Athlon Sports Fantasy college football leagues.

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