We got the lowdown on many of the top QB plays this week…and we even did this article on our own.  What?  You think we got Butch Davis’ Nanny to write this?  Come on…

Important note this week:  Many of the top programs and QBs will be playing lesser FBS programs and FCS programs…which means your star QB will probably not see as much action as in most games…possibly being pulled in the third quarter with backups used in mop-up duty.

————————————————

BEST PLAY THIS WEEK:

Jerrod Johnson – Texas A&M (vs Stephen F. Austin): Johnson may have a sore shoulder, but, he may see the most time of any top QB playing a lower program in their opener.  SF Austin was one of the top offenses in FCS level football last season, and, the Aggie defense was one of the worst in the Big XII last year.  Johnson could be still playing into the fourth quarter on this one….great for his fantasy owners.

OTHER GREAT PLAYS THIS WEEK

John Brantley – Florida (vs Miami, Ohio): Brantley could see more playing time than most of the QBs in his position (good team vs weak opponent) because this will be his first start, probably getting more reps behind center even if the Gators have a huge lead.

Blane Gabbert – Missouri (vs Illinois): Although some of his key targets will not be playing, Gabbert and his Mizzou teammates actually have a contest this week, and, a game that has turned into a high-scoring rivalry in recent years.

Robert Griffin – Baylor (vs Sam Houston State): The Bearkats will have problems if Griffin is 100% from reconstructive knee surgery…and look for Griffin to get as much playing time as possible.

Andy Dalton – TCU (vs Oregon State, at Arlington, TX): In reality, a home game for the Horned Frogs at Cowboys Stadium.  The dual-threat QB is sure to play a full 60 Minutes in this one.

Colin Kaepernick – Nevada (vs Eastern Washington): This game is not as easy as it appears for the Wolf Pack…Eastern Washington was a FCS playoff team last season…which could mean more action for Kaepernick late in the game.

MORE QBs TO PLAY THIS WEEK:  Ryan Mallett, Arkansas; Zach Collaros, Cincinnati; Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State; Landry Jones, Oklahoma; Kyle Padron, SMU; Case Keenum, Houston; Russell Wilson, North Carolina State; Josh Nesbitt; Georgia Tech; Ryan Lindley, San Diego State.

————————————————–

MAYBE NOT PLAY THEM THIS WEEK:

Kellen Moore – Boise State (vs Virginia Tech, Landover, MD): Neutral site game may be the only time where Moore is not a sure play.  Virginia Tech has a decent defense, and, I think the winner of this game will have to run the football…something both teams do well.

Bryant Moniz – Hawaii (vs USC): Moniz will have games where he will light it up, but, USC will be the best defense the Warriors may play all season.

C.J. Kinne – Tulsa (at East Carolina): Early CUSA conference game…even with a new head coach, East Carolina will have to rely on their defense to win.  Kinne will get his chances to blow up the stats page later in the season.

—————————————————–

DO NOT PLAY THEM THIS WEEK:

Tyrod Taylor – Virginia Tech (vs Boise State): Ditto with Taylor as with Kellen Moore….the winner of the Boise-VT game is going to have to run the ball and play some defense.

Diondre Borel – Utah State (at Oklahoma): Good fantasy QB who will helm an over-matched team vs the Sooners.  Borel will have his moments vs WAC opponents in 2010…but no good moments in Norman this weekend.

Riley Nelson/Jake Heaps – BYU (vs Washington): Both will see action vs the Huskies, so expect their stats to be low.  Even if one of them were to get 100% of the reps this week, they would not be a good play vs an improving Husky defense.

——————————————————–

OFF THIS WEEK:

Dwight Dasher – Middle Tennessee (may not be playing at all in 2010 for taking that non-approved VA Loan)

Trey Revell, UL-Monroe; Wes Carroll, Florida International.

Related posts:

1. FROM THE SHOTGUN….Week Eleven QB Start/Sit
2. FROM THE SHOTGUN…Week 3 QB Start/Sit
3. FROM THE SHOTGUN…Week Eight QB Start/Sit

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Mark Ingram - the first back-to-back Heisman Trophy winner? (Icon SMI)

Alabama’s Mark Ingram starts the 2010 season right where he left off in 2009–on top of the Heismanpundit.com Heisman Poll.

1. Mark Ingram, Jr., RB, Alabama – 26 (6)
2. Terrelle Pryor, Jr., QB, Ohio State – 18 (2)
3. Kellen Moore, Jr., QB, Boise State – 12 (2)
4. Jacquizz Rodgers, Jr., RB, Oregon St. – 6 (2)
5. Case Keenum, Sr., QB, Houston – 4 (1)
6. Ryan Mallett, Jr., QB, Arkansas – 4
7. Ryan Williams, So., RB, Virginia Tech – 3
8. Dion Lewis, So., RB, Pittsburgh – 2
9. Jake Locker, Sr., QB, Washington – 1
John Clay, Jr., RB, Wisconsin – 1
Michael Floyd, Sr., WR, Notre Dame – 1

Related posts:

1. Ingram Leads Final HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll
2. Ingram Takes The Lead In Latest HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll
3. Tebow Holds Lead In HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Last Tuesday Night – Chief Fantasy Officer Drew Smith and I reflect on our collective 11 drafts.

Today – SEC correspondent Chris Pendley of Simulated Gameday Experience breaks down the Florida and Auburn offenses. yes, we will talk a lot about Mario Fannin…

Tuesday – my appearance on Matt Mc’s Sports Fix going over Week One schedule. At the very end, I squeeze in my upset special.

Stay tuned by subscribing to the free podcast on PodOMatic, or keep checking in here on the FCB Blog. Or add it to your iTunes. We make it easy.

Related posts:

1. PODCASTS: Daniel Freer examines the Senior Bowl periphery
2. Week Six College Football Schedule Kicks off early and often
3. PODCAST: Bowl week has begun – Vince on the Sports Fix

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

My man-crush Middle Tennessee QB Dwight “Donkey” Dasher seems not to know when to fold ‘em, poker led him to a personal debt to an elderly man in Murfreesboro. The debt on its own is not really the issue as I am sure the NCAA would go nuts trying to track down personal lending for all athletes, but the still-alleged theft of a teammates blank check as collateral is what will keep Dasher out indefinitely.

<<<FANTASY IMPACT>>> Drew and I talked this one out a lot today, we think it is too early to cut Dasher. He could be out three games, or this could be a 2009 Dez Bryant like situation that drags out for the season. Current weight of the evidence has us suggesting a hold on Dasher.

On the other end of the social ill scale, rumors surface on the Net late Friday that Missouri RB Derrick Washington was off the team due to allegations of sexual battery. I will spare you the details but check out ESPN and the excellent Columbia Daily Tribune for details. The case was dismissed in July, but is playing a part in the suspension.

<<<FANTASY IMPACT>>> The Washington case is tougher to call, but has bigger implications for a season long dismissal. At the very least, grab Kendall Lawrence who takes over the #1 spot for the Tigers, but even better if  RB Ronnie Hillman of San Diego State is still a free agent in your league you should secure him.

Related posts:

1. U-Sports discounts end Friday – sign up now
2. Friday Night Lite – Start your Tigers against Nevada, and do you remember Colin Kaepernick?
3. Player Spotlight: QB Gary Rogers, Washington State Cougars

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

2010-min-cheat

While Drew’s Cheatsheet Customizer stands as an enormous paean to his goal of personalizing his work to your specific league, mine assumes you are playing all-FBS only. My minimalist cheatsheet evolved through 4 actual drafts and many mocks. It includes the players I look for outperforming seasons and very little else to distract me.

I don’t want to be flooded by 200 QB – so my cheatsheet has 40 for all-FBS (why rank Steven Garcia or Nick Fanuzzi if I have no intention of drafting them? No offense to them of course…) I have less than 80 each of RB and WR again because I want only the essential players. Think of it as enriched uranium to power your team thru the draft.

Enjoy. Download – grab it at the last minute out the door. You may not have every name, but you will have what I think to be an optimized list of the most important ones.

Related posts:

1. Vince’s Minimalist QB Cheatsheet: A New Paradigm
2. Vince’s Minimalist RB Cheatsheet: A new Paradigm
3. 2008 SCHEDULE…A Nightmare On Roster Sheet

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

North Carolina State Team Breakdown

Returning starters: Offense: 7, Defense: 5, Punter/Kicker: 1

QB Russell Wilson back to slinging the pigskin.

Quarterback – Starter Russell Wilson (pictured right, SMI) missed all of spring football to play baseball. In his absence, Mike Glennon impressed coach Tom O’Brien and completed 21 of 38 passes for 423 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the Pack’s spring game. As long as Wilson picks up where he left off in 2009, it should be his job to lose. Wilson had nearly three times as many touchdown passes as picks (31 to 11) last season. He also threw 379 passes without a pick, which broke the old mark of 325. I think this team is going through some turmoil with all of the offseason distractions (arrests) so watch for them to have a slow start and then pick up their performance about midseason. Wilson will not come close to 30+ TDs this year.

Running Back – For the first time since 2005, NC State doesn’t have a running back with any starting experience. Brandon Barnes broke his ankle so the competition is now between Curtis Underwood, who redshirted last year, and James Washington, who played in six games as a true freshman last year. I would expect to see the carries be limited to start, especially if either of the unproven runners have fumble problems on their new stage. Watch these two as the season progresses and pick them up off of waivers or in Free Agency.

Wide Receiver – So who are the lucky recipients of Russell Wilson’s passes? Senior Owen Spencer led the nation with 25.5 yards per catch last season and senior Jarvis Williams led the league with 11 touchdown catches. This offense has a very potent passing offense and Russell Wilson will once again be looking to air it out. I would take both of these guys in the mid rounds of your fantasy draft as both will be productive.

Tight End – George Bryan may be the best tight end in the league, although he could face future disciplinary actions for being one of four Wolfpack players arrested in April. Watch this closely and if he misses a game or two, he is worth taking high in the draft as he will still see the field and make the most of the time he does have, trust me!

Defense –Watch for linebacker Nate Irving to come back from a near-fatal car accident last year and light a spark for this defense. He’ll be a little rusty to start but should come back and be one of the top LB in the ACC. The secondary will still struggle this year as they have lost some players to injury and the D line is expecting to be very thin. This is a near bottom defense in my opinion.

Kicker/Special Teams – NC State has a good kicker returning in 2010 in Josh Czajkowski. He made all of his extra points last year and was in the mid 80% range on field goals. The best thing about Czajkowski is the number of opportunities he is going to have this year. They should see more field goal opportunities this year as he only had 12 field goal attempts.

Schedule – NC State faces Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Boston College in back to back to back games in October. Throw in games against FSU and at Clemson and at UNC and this team is staring down another bowl-less season. Sorry Wolfpack, it just doesn’t look good right now.

Virginia Team Breakdown

Returning starters Offense: 6, Defense: 6, Punter/Kicker: 2

Quarterback – The Cavaliers have just as many question marks at quarterback as most of the ACC does. A new coach brings in a new offensive philosophy. I expect a rough year for this team as they don’t quite have the talent and the scheme is too new. Watch for them to be near the bottom of the list in fantasy stats.

Running Back – In addition to losing their leading passer from a season ago, Virginia also loses its four leading rushers (Rashawn Jackson, Mikell Simpson, Jameel Sewell and Vic Hall). Correy Mack is the team’s leading returning rusher with 73 yards in his freshman season, but is not listed at either #1 or #2 on the post-spring depth chart. With these kind of questions no certainty at who is going to be the starter, I suggest to stay away, stay very far away.

Wide Receiver – Junior Kris Burd is the lone returning bright spot on the WR corp. Vic Hall has graduated along with Mikell Simpson and Rashawn Jackson who accounted for over half of the catches last year. Burd is the only guy I would even consider having on my team, but I would wait a couple of weeks to see how Mike London changes things up for this offense.

Tight End – There is no experienced talent at the TE position and no one has been named a starter yet. I would keep away from any TE from this team until something is known which could take a couple games to figure out.

Defense – So much has been mentioned about the Cavalier’s change in coaches that no one knows much about either the offense or defense. They switch back from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 base. Watch for cornerback Ras-I Dowling to step up his game in the secondary and become a vocal leader for this team as the spotlight is now shining on him. The NFL scouts are watching. LB Steve Greer should help man the middle of the field, but I would still stay away for now as no one knows how this team is going to respond to all of the changes.

Kicker/Special Teams – Robert Randolph started off taking the extra points last year, but by midseason Drew Jarrett had take over those duties and left the field goals only to Randolph. Neither has the clear advantage yet and Mike London said the battle will continue into fall camp. Regardless, neither kicker will probably see a whole lot of chances to score as the offense learns the new schemes which means the offense will struggle about as much as last year to move the ball.

Schedule – Virginia is going to have a tough season this year. They have a whole new scheme being learned, and the schedule is not going to allow for a whole lot of breathing room. The non-conference schedule allows for some competitive games against Richmond and Eastern Michigan, but watch for the game against Southern Cal to be tough sledding. Their conference games late in the season are going to be the real determining factor on how well this team is adapting to the new systems as they round out the year against Duke, Maryland, Boston College, and then rivals Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech Team Breakdown

Returning starters: Offense: 8, Defense: 5, Punter/Kicker: 0

Quarterback – Virginia Tech’s Tyrod Taylor certainly belongs among the top half of quarterbacks in the league. Taylor’s five interceptions were the lowest among any starter last season and he averaged an impressive 17 yards a completion. His back-up, redshirt freshman Logan Thomas, has never thrown a pass which largely explains why the Hokies are worried about their depth. Throw in the addition of Evans coming back, I think the Hokies will look to control the clock by grinding it out on the ground to keep their untested defense off the field. The Hokies have a great set of receivers, but I expect them to see fewer passes than last year. Taylor will throw a few less TDs than last year, but he will also run a few more in.

Running Back – Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams burst onto the scene as a freshman last season and broke a school record with 1,655 rushing yards. . If Darren Evans is suffering any lingering effects from last year’s torn ACL, it wasn’t evident during his first carry of the spring game when he ran over safety Antone Exum. Evans told reporters he’s feeling the best he has since he was injured. This will be the most potent RB tandem in the ACC and will be a top 10 RB group in the nation. Draft Willams first as Evans will most likely ease his way into the season as an ACL injury is no small thing.

Wide Receiver – Jarrett Boykin is the leading returner which should really help this group out as he was most often looked to on passing downs.. Also keep an eye on Danny Coale and Dyrell Roberts as both have potential to rack up some yards this year. I have mediocre expectations for this group in 2010 as they focus on the running game in Blacksburg.

Tight End – With the departure of star Ed Wang on the O line and Senior TE Greg Boone to graduation, this group of TE will most likely be used for blocking the way for their 2 1,000 yard rushers. I don’t expect anyone from this group to be really an option in the passing game as the WR are more than capable.

Defense – The Hokies struggled to plug all of the holes on defense during the spring which has the coaches in Blacksburg slightly worried for the fall. They don’t have a star playmaker at any position which is different from years past. The coaches will not allow this defense to be the demise of the team, so watch for them to get better as the season progresses. This is a buy low and sell high kind of defense in my opinion. They will finish in the top half of the ACC like they should.

Kicker/Special Teams – Does anyone else hate the term “Beamer Ball” as much as I do? The only problem is that it is still alive and kicking in Blacksburg, Virginia. Chris Hazely enters the season as the frontrunner for the PK job this fall, but he is untested. I stick to my mantra to stay away from first time kickers, but in this case, I’ll make the exception as Virginia Tech has one of the best special teams in the nation year after year.

Schedule – The Hokies will open the season against Boise State who is looking for something to prove on a national stage. If they falter, they at least have a couple of easy opponents to take out their frustrations on in weeks 2 and 3 just before their league play starts. The toughest part of the season comes in November when they play against Georgia Tech, at UNC, at Miami, and the rivalry against Virginia who will be looking to put a good cap to the end of their season.

Wake Forest Team Breakdown

Returning starters Offense: 6, Defense: 7, Punter/Kicker: 2

Quarterback – Record breaking QB Riley Skinner is gone which leaves a small group of untested rookies in the star position. Coming out of spring, the QB position was not entirely settled and probably won’t be until just before game 1. Whoever it ends up being, watch for Wake to really struggle in all facets of the game, including the passing game. I would steer clear from a fantasy standpoint of any Wake Forest QB.

Running Back – Without Skinner, the Deacons are making the transition to a more run-based option offense. Receivers Devone Brown and Chris Givens can both take a handoff on a sweep, and the Deacons have two veteran backs in Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass. Wake’s ground game should get a boost from both the running backs and wide receivers. According to Grobe, he is going to hand it off until his backs tongues hang out. Watch for Josh Adams to be the main man with a few carries by Pendergrass sprinkled in.

Wide Receiver – Receiver Marshall Williams had 60 catches last season, and is the top returnee followed closely by junior Devone Brown. Both put up a combined 1,500 + yards receiving. Watch for those to be the main targets when needed but I expect their numbers to drop from last year as Wake breaks in a new QB. It’s been said several times already that this will be a run first team in 2010.

Tight End – Andrew Parker was the surprise TE candidate for the Deacons last year. He had a decent hear with a couple of TDs but not entirely start worthy unless if you’re in a pinch. I always like TE on team’s that have a new QB because they usually look their way as security blankets in the red zone.

Defense – The amount of talent lost to the NFL in 2008 reared its ugly head last year. Well this offseason saw the same time of exodus but from the offensive side. The biggest loss on the defense was DT Boo Robinson and CB Brandon Ghee. This team has the ability to take average players and make them better through solid coaching, so I expect little drop off from last years stats. This team will finish right about #6 in the ACC is my guess.

Kicker/Special Teams – Wake Forrest found a decent replacement for career record-breaking Sam Swank in the form of sophomore Shane Popham. Unfortunately Popham got injured in game 2 and never saw the field for the rest of the season. Jimmy Newman stepped in and had a solid season for a freshman as he completed 100% of his PATs and 65% in field goals. Expect Shane Popham to have the leg up on regaining the starting gig and if he stays healthy, he should have a decent season.

Schedule – Wake Forrest starts the season with a should-win game against Presbyterian, but then ramps up the competition gradually as the play Duke, then Stanford, then FSU. Games against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech should present some speed bumps along a long season for this team. I expect the team to end the year right about .500.

Related posts:

1. 2010 ACC Preview – Part 2
2. 2010 ACC Preview – Part 1
3. ACC Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

OUT  for 2010 – Charles Sims, Houston / Marcus Curry, Navy / Jamon Forston, FSU /Delashaun Dean, Arizona

http://www.collegefantasyfootballinsider.com/college-fantasy-football-injuries

http://philsteele.com/miscpages/Injuries/prior_to_ssn.html

FCB Knowledge

Matt Ryan Hacking – Defense Ranks / Best conferences for offense / Hacking Phil Steele – SOS+OL Starts Returning

Draft Reviews

Athlon Expert Mock by Position – QB | RB | WR :: CFFI All-120 Expert Mock

FCFI Expert League Draft - Draft grid

Participant Reviews – Drew :: Others and Landing Page

Related posts:

1. Drew and Vince owned Athlon Mock Draft Part Deux, aka 2009 Draft Strategy
2. Drew and Vince owned the CF Geek Draft
3. Expert Mock Draft Monday Aug 2 at 9ET – watch it live!

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

On the bright side, Texas A&M returns most of their starting offense, and Baylor should rebound in a big way if QB Robert Griffin stays healthy.g

Once again, Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska should field very formidable defenses – possibly all top ten units in the nation. Because of their elite defenses, one of these three teams should finish with the best record in the conference. A&M might be considered a sleeper; however, to win the Big 12 South they will have to show much more consistency than they have in recent years.

Nonetheless, there are still many players in the conference worth looking at:

Jerrod Johnson's poised to make this conference his?

Quarterbacks

Jerrod Johnson is the clear preseason favorite for top conference QB here, and as a dual threat QB his rushing TDs will be a big boost to fantasy stats.

Blaine Gabbert benefits from an incredibly easy non-conference schedule and the fact that the Tigers do not face the Big 12′s top secondary, Texas.

Gabbert narrowly beats out Robert Griffin, who is likely to struggle against TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma as those defenses will give the Baylor offense fits. (Nonetheless, I’m half-expecting and whole-heartedly rooting for Griffin to lead Baylor to a bowl eligible season.)

Landry Jones will lead an Oklahoma offense that returns most of its receiving corps and can only expect improvement over 2009.

If it gets this late in the draft, Garrett Gilbert and Austen Arnaud are your two best bets. We likely know what we’re getting with Arnaud – solid production but an offense that isn’t going to put the ball in the end zone a lot. Gilbert is more of a question mark — I think he performed admirably against Alabama given the circumstances, and that 2010 will be a redeeming season for him. But on the other hand, the team’s best WR (who caught both TD passes against the Tide) is also gone and the running game has been problematic for several seasons now.

Running Backs

The Big 12 has no nationally elite running backs. However, there are some good picks in this bunch.

Daniel Thomas basically is that Kansas State offense. He may not score heaps of TDs because of the team he plays for, but he’s got a good shot to finish in the top 10 nationally in rushing yards just because of the volume of carries he gets.

Demarco Murray is in the opposite situation. Oklahoma’s offense is bound to improve, and with Chris Brown gone, Murray should be nearing full-time status in the red zone. He can expect a lot of scores.

Kendall Hunter should be the focus of Oklahoma State’s offense now that Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant are gone. Keith Toston is also gone, so Hunter will reclaim his featured role.

Looking a little down out list, Derrick Washington will be playing in an offense that could score a lot of points, and his priority will be emphasized in the red zone as some of the experienced WRs are gone. Alexander Robinson is likely to be a major emphasis (along with Arnaud) for the otherwise lackluster Iowa State offense.

Roy Helu has become something of a name in the conference, but I expect Nebraska’s offensive woes to only slightly improve in 2010. Likewise, Christine Michael’s stats may be hurt by the fact that Jerrod Johnson himself is a threat to run in the red zone, so Michael may be deprived of some of the easy scores that other top fantasy RBs get.

Baron Batch plays for an offense that has been prolific in the past, and his new coach has hinted at more of a running game than the team has used in the past. However, I am skeptical that this Tech offense will continue putting up numbers even resembling those of previous seasons.

Rodney Stewart is probably the only other RB in the conference worth looking at.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

The first pick at WR is easy, as Ryan Broyles had a monster season in 2009 and could be the nation’s top fantasy receiver in 2010. Broyles doubled as the conference’s top punt return man in 2009.

Jeff Fuller won’t be in Broyles’ point range, but he has been Johnson’s favorite target in the past and should be the #2 receiver in the conference.

Beyond this, things are less clear. Detron Lewis and Alexander Torres both had similar stats a season ago for Texas Tech. With Torres having been just a freshman, he should be expected to see the greater improvement, and thus could be the third-most productive receiver in the conference.

Jerrell Jackson is the top receiver returning at Missouri and could be due a 1,000 yard season. Wes Kemp ought to settle in as the offense’s #2, but I see no reason he won’t be within 200 yards of Jackson.

Anyone expecting a resurgence of Robert Griffin should look for Kendall Wright to be catching plenty of balls and getting more open looks as defenses struggle with Griffin’s mobility.

Malcolm Williams had more yards per catch than any other Texas receiver in 2009, and could lead the team in yards in 2010. The problem is that James Kirkendoll outscored him in TDs 6 to 2. One of these will likely be the top receiver on the team… with Gilbert throwing a deeper ball than McCoy, that could be Williams.

Scotty McKnight emerged as a reliable receiver at Colorado, and could easily place above the Tex recivers and Wright on this list. There is some variance here due to Colorado’s offensive issues, particularly at QB.

For Oklahoma State, Hubert Anyiam stepped up to become the #1 receiver after Dez Bryant became ineligible. However, Anyiam had just 515 yards and 3 TDs in this role, and shouldn’t challenge the top of the league’s receiving stats.

At the TE position, Mike McNeill is the clear league favorite and will get decent production in Nebraska’s offense. The rest of the league is full of question marks at TE. Missouri could well field the #2 TE because of the offense they run, but whether that will be Andrew Jones or Michael Egnew is not completely clear at this point.

Kickers

Place kicker is a very strong position for the Big 12, and just about everyone is returning their kicker from 2009 (save for Texas).

Grant Russell hit 26/27 for Missouri in 2009 and could be the nation’s top kicker in 2010.

Alex Henery was reliable for Nebraska with an 86% conversion rate, and his stats are helped by the fact that Nebraska’s defense often puts the offense in favorable positions, but the offense is often unable to put the ball in the end zone. He is the most likely challenger to Russell’s spot at #1.

After these two, the question becomes which teams will likely get the ball into field goal range the most. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are my picks here as both could be running fairly one-dimensional offenses that don’t quite fire on all cylinders, but are still successful enough to push the ball well past midfield.

Texas actually was one of three Big 12 teams to have a kicker hit over 20 field goals in 2009 (nobody else hit over 13 in fact), but Hunter Lawrence is gone – replaced by John Tucker who did most of the punting last year as well as handling kickoffs – and the offense is full of question marks.

Betting on Oklahoma’s offense never seems like a bad idea, and returning kicker Jimmy Stevens converted 11 of 13 last season. I’d look for a 50-100 point improvement for this offense over the season, and Stevens would obviously see a large chunk of that.

Defense

As mentioned, the Big 12 has three top tier defenses. In this order: Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma. Beyond these three, Texas Tech might see some improvement under a more defense-minded coach, and Missouri looks like a passable choice if your options are limited.

Related posts:

1. Miami RedHawks 2010 Preview
2. 2010 ACC Preview – Part 1
3. Big 12 Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

I put little weight on preseason polls since there is so much complexity involved not only week to week but then trying to prognosticate said complexity over the course of an entire season. That has nothing to do with the fun and discussion that results from the exercise.

Related posts:

1. FCB Week 6 Ballot for CBSSports.com Blogpoll Top 25
2. FCB Blogpoll Top 25: Gators maintain top spot
3. FCB Top 25 for CBSSports.com Blogpoll – showing the O face

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Floyd is a true offensive playmaker who has skills for the next level.  However, there are two glaring reasons why you need to temper expectations for this season. The first is the absence of a proven, starting quarterback. Jimmy Clausen is gone and with doubt as to the true leader of the Irish attack, Floyd may struggle at times to develop chemistry with the new signal caller. The second major issue is that Golden Tate is now in the NFL, not taking coverage away from Floyd. WR Kyle Rudolph will surely attract attention, however, not having Tate to cover will allow defenses to key more on Floyd. He will have a solid season, but it may be best to draft him as a WR2.

Air Attack going flat for Tech?

Taylor Potts or Steve Sheffield, QB, Texas Tech

Whichever QB (Taylor Potts pictured right, SMI) wins the battle for the Red Raiders will definitely be a fantasy performer on someone’s roster this year. However, with the new Tommy Tuberville regime in town, there is no way the air it out attack of former Coach Leach will continue to that degree. We have been spoiled by the fantasy stats coming from the Raiders QB position for a decade. Just don’t be the guy to overpay for the winner of the QB derby.

Garrett Gilbert, QB, Texas

Gilbert showed what he was made of in 2009 when he was tossed into the National Title game and led the Longhorns within 3 points with two second half touchdown passes. What has to be remembered is the Longhorns best offensive weapon is gone as Jordan Shipley is now playing on Sundays with the Bengals. Gilbert will have his huge games against lesser opponents, but don’t expect him to gel right away with developing receivers and a defense that lost a ton of talent is a lot to ask. While not a QB1, he is a QB2 with upside.

Matt Barkley, QB, USC

There are two glaring reasons why Barkley should not be a fantasy QB 1 or 2 this year. Reason number one combines the new regime under Lane Kiffin and the fact his statistics do not back up the name on the jersey. This is not the high octane Leinart-Bush-Sanchez-Williams-LenDale Trojans. Barkley threw only 15 touchdowns in 2009 to go along with 14 INT’s. While those numbers should get better, with a lack of familiarity with the new system, he may struggle. The second glaring issue is motivation. How will USC respond to not being able to play for the Pac-10 title, let alone a bowl game? I just say stay away.

A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

Let me state this. Green is a freak and will be a top 10 NFL pick when he comes out of school. The one thing he is not is a legitimate fantasy WR1 like many experts project. The stats are just not there. Green only grabbed 53 catches in 10 games in 2009, to go along with only six scores. Even if he adds 20 catches and 3 scores to his totals, which is a stretch in the Bulldogs offense, he is a borderline WR2.

Related posts:

1. Fantasy College Blitz Experts QB Top 20 List
2. FCB Experts WR Top 20 List
3. FCB Experts RB Top 20 List

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The biggest concern here is how to replace Kafka. It won’t be easy but it looks like QB Dan Persa is the front runner for the job. Persa is an accurate and mobile quarterback which is good news for Wildcat fans.  Let’s just say he might be scrambling at times.

The running game is still unclear for the Wildcats. Last year Arby Fields got the bulk of the carries. Now we have RB Alex Daniel returning from injury. Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith both should contribute some to the running game this year. There may not be a clear front runner or fantasy starter in the bunch but Adonis Smith is worth watching to see how he does on the season. He could be the future of the Wildcats.

The receivers Sidney Stewart and Drake Dunsmore return but with concerns at the QB spot it is hard to expect a lot from these receivers this year. Neither receiver caught over 600 yards last year but with both Brewer and Markshausen gone they should see an increase in yardage this season. Just don’t draft them expecting 800 yard seasons.

The defense is a weak spot and should be drafted with great concern. Kicker Stefan Demos is one of the top kickers in the Big Ten and will get plenty of field goal chances with this offense.Michigan State

QB Kirk Cousins had a great year in 2009 (2680 yards, 19 TD’s and 9 INT’s) and looks to improve on those numbers this year. This team is ready to move forward and forget about the off-field problems of last year, which will benefit Cousins. If he can improve at getting the ball downfield consistently, then his receivers will find a way to help him improve his passing yards.  Funny how that works.

The running game is helped by the return of RB Larry Caper (468 yards, 6 TD’s).  Edwin Baker (427, 1) is also capable of helping take pressure off Cousins and keeping the ball moving downfield.

The receivers are still trying to emerge and define themselves. Keith Nichol and Keshawn Martin are the projected starters for now. The primary concern is getting this unit to stop dropping passes no matter who is lining up.

The defense is anchored by the hardest hitting LB in the Big Ten, Greg Jones. The defense returns 6 starters this year but the Spartans have plenty of talent to fill any holes in their defense. One of the players to watch will be William Gholston.

Purdue

Hopes run high for the Boilemaker offense and the new QB transfer Robert Marve. If he can keep his head on straight and stay out of trouble, he might just have one heck of a season. The other option is Caleb TerBush. Both guys have strong arms but Marve looks like the bigger playmaker of the two. If Marve struggles then TerBush could be called upon to take full advantage of the opportunity.

The running game has suffered some rough times lately with RB Ralph Bolden tearing his ACL in March and Al-Terek McBurse suffering a hairline fracture in his arm. McBurse should be the main guy and has signs of potential. Dan Dierking will also be available to help out but he is also coming off a hyperextended knee.

The receivers at least are healthy. Keith Smith returns and should have another great year (1,100 yards, 6 TD’s). He will be joined by Cortez Smith and Keith Carlos along with tight end Kyle Adams in one of the strongest receiving units in the Big Ten. Both Smith and Adams are worth adding to your fantasy roster.

The defense is not a strong spot for the Boilermakers. The secondary has lost all four starters. The linebacking unit is the heart of this defense and is solid.

Carson Wiggs remains one of the top kickers for fantasy teams because he gets plenty of field goals. The problem is he isn’t accurate. He made 8 of 14 from over 40 yards last year.

Michigan

You would hope that things would get better after the 2009 season but I’m not sure this team is ready to improve much over last year’s 5-7 record.

QB Tate Forcier returns to lead the passing game and should improve on his 2,050 passing yards and 13 TD’s. The only problem is he has more competition this year should he struggle like he did in the second half of last season. Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner could challenge Forcier for the job before the end of the season.

The running game is also a toss up at this point. The front runner appears to be Vincent Smith (276 yards, 1 TD). Michael Shaw (185, 2) should also see plenty of carries this season. Both runners have great speed and the luxury of running behind an offensive line that returns three starters with plenty of depth.  With an offensive line this solid, it should make it easy for both backs to improve on their rushing yards this season.

The receivers are another area of concern. Roy Roundtree (434, 3) and Martavious Odoms (272,1) have the ability to make the big plays and should be fun to watch if given the opportunity. Tight End Kevin Koger (220, 2) returns and should see improvement in his numbers this year. If the quarterback spot can cut down on mistakes and deliver to these guys, their numbers will improve.

The defense at least returns 8 starters from last years. Craig Roh will be a player to watch this year with his speed at getting to the ball. There are not many proven playmakers on this squad though.

Illinois

I’m sure there are plenty of Gator fans right now going “told ya so” about Ron Zook and the Illinois job. It certainly looks like this will be his last season in Champaign.

At quarter back we have (insert player here). I don’t know either. So the point is don’t draft the Illini QB for your team. The Illini will most likely name Nathan Scheelhaase as the starter given his speed. Jacob Charest may get the job but I think the edge goes to Scheelhaase. Then there is Chandler Whitmer who is probably the most accurate of all three candidates. When the head coach’s job is on the line, you may see all of these guys before the end of the season or week 3. All kidding aside, once the quarterback spot is resolved you should see improved accuracy from this position. Watch to see who emerges as the starter then go to the waiver wire in your league.

The running game at least is a bright spot for the Illini with Mikel Leshoure (734, 5) and Jason Ford (588, 4) running the ball. Expect to see Leshoure rack up a few more 100 yard plus games this season and Ford’s numbers should improve as well.

The receivers lack depth but that’s ok, there are plenty of options at quarterback to make up for it. Look for Eddie McGee, Jarred Fayson (218, 1) and Fred Sykes to benefit from the improvement at the QB spot. Again, these may be better candidates to get off the waiver wire in your league than by drafting them in the late rounds.

The defense returns 7 starters but this unit yields too many yards and points per game. They may be a surprise this year but you are better off looking for another defense for your fantasy team.

Minnesota

QB Adam Weber will do better this year even though his best receiver is gone and we are worried about that offensive line. He had a great spring and appears to be focused. He should improve on his numbers this year including his accuracy, which took a step back last season. Expect improvements over the 2,582 passing yards and 13 TD’s he compiled in 2009.

The running game is not bad with Duane Bennett (376, 6) and Devon Wright joining the group this fall. The problem is the line. If they could get more consistency from the front men, their numbers could improve and the Gophers would not have to go to the air attack so much.

The receivers will enjoy improvements from Weber this year. Expect to see gains in the numbers for Troy Stoudermire (306, 2) and Da’Jon McKnight (311, 0). Both players should see dramatic increases in yardage totals with the departure of Decker.

The defense returns 2 starters and will be tested often as Big Ten play gets underway. This is another defensive unit you will want to take a pass on.

Kicker Eric Ellestad though does deserve a look. He was 13-17 last year with a long of 39 yards. He did go 0-3 over 40 yards so he has trouble with the long kicks. He missed no XP and only 1 FG less than 40 yards.

Indiana

This has to be one of the most interesting teams in the Big Ten. They have good players. They have skill players. They just have breakdowns at areas that impact the game. The offensive line needs improvement. If they can fix the problem there then this team is going to give a lot of folk’s problems.

The quarterback situation is great with Ben Chappell returning to lead the way. In 2009 he threw for 2,941 yards, 17 TD’s and 15 INT’s. He completed 62.6 percent of his throws. That is the 3^rd best completion percentage among last years Big Ten starters. He also has two of the best receivers in the game and a decent running attack to help him out.

The running game is solid with Darius Willis (607, 6) pounding the ball in the middle. He will improve on those numbers if he can stay healthy and his line gives him a chance.

The receivers are led by Tandon Doss (962, 5), Damarlo Belcher (770, 5) and Terrance Turner (443, 1). All these guys are great possession receivers and can help move the chains. The only thing lacking is a real deep threat to this group. Expect to see improvement in their numbers though if the line gives Chappell time to throw and not scramble.

The defense is returning 4 starters and is led by Larry Black and Adam Replogle. This unit still gives up a lot of points and yards per game and you may want to take a pass on them for your fantasy team.

Related posts:

1. 2010 Big 10 Preview – Part 1
2. INDEPENDENTS 2010 PREVIEW
3. 2010 ACC Preview – Part 2

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

MOCK DRAFT RESULTS GRID

http://fantasycollegeblitz.podomatic.com/rss2.xml

Related posts:

1. PODCAST: Ron Jumper of Sports Overload talks SEC and Expert League
2. PODCAST: Bowl week has begun – Vince on the Sports Fix
3. PODCAST: Vince Mullins on ESPN 1450 Paydirt Sports Talk

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The starting lineup for the league consists of:

• 2 QB
• 2 RB
• 2 WR
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE)
• 1 Defense
• 1 Kicker

My Fantasy College Blitz entry had the 20th pick in the draft (scroll WAY to the right), the lowest I have ever drafted in any league in any sport. My strategy going in was to get solid low risk running backs and wide receivers in the first 4 rounds.  After that, I would load up on high upside guys at those two positions the rest of the way.

If a top quarter back didn’t fall to me at picks 20/21, I knew that by the time my next picks came up at 60/61, at least 15-20 QBs would be off the board.  Therefore, I planned looking for value QBs later in the draft if that happened. The TE position is not very exciting so I planned on taking a few sleepers late. The defensive scoring is not strong enough to use anything more than a late pick and the same goes for kickers.

Pick 1.20

RB Kendall Hunter – Oklahoma St. (right, courtesy of SMI)

The Cowboys offense is going to put up a ton of points and Hunter is as a lock for Top 10 RB if he can stay healthy. Quickly adapting to his dual-purpose role.

Pick 2.21

RB Noel Devine – West Virginia

Devine is a special back who will eventually be playing on Sundays.  He will be good for 1,500+ total yards and 12+ TDs. With this pick, I accomplished my first goal of getting two low risk stud backs.  I will say that I was tempted to take Tulsa QB G.J. Kinne who went the next pick.

Pick 3.60

WR Jermaine Kearse – Washington

I fully expect Jake Locker to take a step forward as a QB this year which means Kearse should be the biggest beneficiary. I expect 10+ TDs this year and 1,000 yards although Kearse isn’t the low risk WR I was hoping for with this pick.

Pick 4.61

WR Darvin Adams – Auburn

We are very high on the Auburn offense this year which should see vast improvements across the board. Adams was a bit too inconsistent last year for my taste but that should be better this year.

5.100

RB Alexander Robinson – Iowa

Robinson lacks the upside but should be a consistent player that I can plug in when not playing the top defenses. This is the definition of a value pick as he was easily the top rated player left on my board.

6.101

WR Chris Rainey – Florida

I might have been able to wait on Rainey till later in the draft.  However, as I was finding out, 40 picks is a lot of picks to wait so I decided not to delay on one of my biggest sleepers at the WR position.

7.140

RB Mike Ball – Nevada

Everyone assumes RB Vai Taua is going to get the majority of carries now that Luke Lippencott is gone…however that is not the Nevada offense. The #2 back is going to have a good shot at 1,000 yards and 10 TDs.  That #2 back appears to be Ball. This pick is in keeping with my goal of choosing high upside RBs/WRs.

8.141

WR Vidal Hazelton – Cincy

Hazelton has the talent to play for USC but now finds himself with a fantasy juggernaut offense in Cincy. He has as much upside as just about any WR this year and I was more than willing to take the gamble 140 picks into the draft.

9.180

QB Taylor Potts – Texas Tech

If Potts wins the starting job and if he keeps it for the entire year and if the Texas Tech offense continues to air the ball 50 times a game…then I just got a Top 10 QB with the 180^th pick in the draft. One might say my fantasy season rests on Potts (although I won’t say it).

10.181

QB Zac Dysert – Miami (OH)

Dysert is one of my favorite sleepers at the QB position as he really started coming into his own late last season.

11.220

RB Marcus Lattimore – South Carolina

There is always at least one true freshman running back who makes an impact. The key is opportunity and talent. Lattimore has both of these. Now playing in the SEC and with Steve Spurrier as his coach work are things against him but high return type pick at #220.

12.221

QB Jacory Harris – Miami

Harris started out last season on fire before interceptions galore during the stretch brought him down to earth. With another season under his belt, I expect to see the mistakes cut down and for Harris to throw for 3,500+ yards.

13.260

WR Malcolm Williams – Texas

Williams is a NFL talent who has yet to put it together on the field. The Longhorns are desperate for a new playmaker at WR so it was worth a shot here.

14.261

TE Dwayne Allen – Clemson

I really wanted Lee Smith or Jordan Reed as my TE, but in a league of experts they weren’t going to let them slip. No worries as Allen is a nice consolation.  He is a big-time talent on a team that is lacking big-time receivers.

15.300

TE Phillip Lutzenkirchen – Auburn

As I mentioned before, we are high on the Auburn offense so grabbing their pass-catching TE was a no brainer for me here. With Allen and Lutz, I have two TEs with great upside but picking which one to start now becomes the challenge.

16.301

QB Kevin Newsome – Penn State

People seem to be discounting Newsome because he is raw in the passing game but that is exactly why he has value. I expect a very similar game plan that Penn State used when Michael Robinson took over.  This means Newsome should be good for 600-700 yards on the ground. If the passing game is better than expected, look out.

17.340

WR Jesse Grandy – Ole Miss

My favorite super sleeper is Jesse ‘McCluster-Lite’ Grandy. I have him finishing as a Top 50 receiver, which is a bold statement considering no one else in the industry seems to be drinking the Kool-Aid. Assuming you draft him late like I am in all my leagues, it is a low risk, big return pick.

18.341

RB Jared Hassin – Army

Hassin is a fullback for Army so his upside is limited by default, but he is a nice talent by Army’s standards.  I believe he is a lock for 10+ TDs this year.

19.380

Def California Bears Defense

I waited to draft my defense so my objective was to take the best defense available that didn’t have an early bye nor a difficult schedule to start. Based on who was left, Cal was the defense that fit the bill. I will have to play the waiver wire matchup game later in the season.

20.381

K Jake Rogers – Cincy

The final piece to my draft day strategy was to wait until round 20 to take a kicker on the most potent offense available. Rogers was that guy.

Overall thoughts…

Looking at my team, it is easy to see that I will only go as far as my QBs take me. I feel very confident with everything else on my roster so with some solid QB play, I like my chances. Trading for a QB is also a strong option for me because of my expected depth at RB/WR. Picking 20^th was certainly challenging but I can’t say I would have done things differently now that I can reflect on it one day later.

Related posts:

1. Fantasy College Football Invitational: Expert League Draft Results
2. Fantasy College Football Invitational: Expert League Report, Grading the Draft
3. PODCAST: Fantasy College Football Invitational Playoff edition

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Big arm, big body, big-time coach - yes, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett looks like the real fantasy deal (Icon SMI)

At least we have trophies…

QUARTERBACK
1.  Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2.  Cam Newton, Auburn
3.  John Brantley, Florida
4.  Jeremiah Masoli, Ole Miss

Let’s start with the obvious: Ryan Mallett is as close to a fantasy QB beast the SEC is likely to get for the near future.  He has a system designed to maximize his talents, he has a quality crop of WRs, and he’ll get the opportunities.  After that …. yikes.  Sure, Stephen Garcia is still floating around, and Greg McElroy is a great real-life QB, but they have systemic issues – McElroy isn’t in an offense that lets him pass enough, and Garcia is going to be yanked out of at least 3-4 games (plus is still playing behind a swinging gate of an offensive line).

Instead, we’re left with what systems are likely to produce.  Newton, Brantley, and Masoli are all untested in SEC play, excepting Newton’s garbage time as a Gator his freshman year.  However, they’re all in systems that can maximize their talents (and to be brutally frank, I flipped their order a few times writing this).  For now, I trust Newton more than either of the two guys ranked below him.  Brantley has all the tools, but after what happened to Florida’s offense under Steve Addazio last year, I’m a bit gunshy.  Masoli by all rights should be going to an offense that will let him run – Matt Jones in 2004 as a good example of Masoli’s potential – but there’s the simple matter of, well, not trusting that Houston Nutt has any idea how to coach QBs.  At all.  Couple that with Ole Miss breaking in three new guys on the line and there are some red flags here, even with Masoli’s production last season.

Don’t get me wrong – Newton, Brantley, and Masoli all have a chance to be the best fantasy QB in the SEC.  But in the absence of any history, we’re left to fall back on what we’ve seen guys like them do, and the production potential of those three guys doesn’t outweigh what we already know about Mallett.

On to the feature backs…RUNNING BACK

Alabama RB Mark Ingram raised his hands 20 times in 2009 (Icon SMI)

1.  Mark Ingram, Alabama
2.  Derrick Locke, Kentucky
3.  Jeff Demps, Florida
4.  Ontario McCalebb, Auburn
5.  Tauren Poole, Tennessee
6.  Broderick Green, Arkansas
7.  Washaun Ealey, Georgia
8.  Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
9.  Mario Fannin, Auburn
10.  Trent Richardson, Alabama

Vince Mullins has to be so happy that it’s been three years and I’m finally starting to give Mario Fannin some credit.  Sure, he’s ranked behind the true freshman running behind a super-porous line, but hey!  Mario Fannin! (ed. Note – we will talk in November.)

The SEC running back crew is weird; on one hand, you have starting RBs in single-back type offenses (Ingram, Locke, Poole, Lattimore, likely Ealey, Green – who we’ll talk more about in a bit), but enough teams have dangerous enough runners in multiple-back offenses that they’re viable (Demps, McCalebb, Fannin) – and then there’s Trent Richardson, who’s enough of a beast in his own right that he’s worth paying attention to at least.  At the top, we know what we’ll get from Ingram and Locke; both are dominant enough runners, and Ingram is likely one of the first RBs off the board, if not the first.  After that, things get weird.

Tauren Poole and Marcus Lattimore are both effectively starters in single-back offenses.  At this point, that makes them viable fantasy commodities for entirely different reasons.  Tennessee’s offense is likely a lo-fi affair this year, and considering the absolute massacre of a QB situation the Vols are going with, they’ll depend heavily on the running game.  Tennessee’s crutch is a fantasy boon.  Lattimore, on the other hand, is South Carolina’s first golden child and arguably the best recruit Spurrier 2.0 has brought in to Columbia.  Although I’m a fan of Jarvis Giles, there’s absolutely no reason he should start above Lattimore, and Lattimore will get the kind of leash that Stephen Garcia only wishes he had.

Washaun Ealey should be the starter for Georgia, but the risk here is twofold: either he may not end up as the starter for the entire season, or he’ll split carries.  He has talent, but tread carefully.  Broderick Green may not end up as the starter at Arkansas, either (if he isn’t, Ronnie Wingo is); however, he’s turned into Jovorski Lane 2.0, and even with Wingo, um, waiting in the wings, Green still outcarried him in all but two games last year.  Green was a TD magnet last year – he finished fifth in the SEC in rushing TDs last year with 11, which isn’t bad for a guy who isn’t getting any press.

As for the multi-back offenses… well, I believe in Gus Malzahn.  That, and I think McCalebb stands to inherit the Ben Tate Honorary Battering Ram and All-Around Awesome RB mantle, although it may take him a season to inherit all the lands Tate conquered last year.  Fannin in turn will slot nicely into a hybrid RB/WR role, and he should be able to inflict a decent amount of damage if he can get about 15 touches a game.  Demps is as close to a primary back as we’ve seen at Florida in a couple of seasons , but he has two big things working in his favor: he carried most of the non-Tebow workload last year, and with Tebow’s departure there are so many carries available.  Tebow registered 217 carries last season; even if a quarter – well, a third – of those were broken plays and sacks, that’s still about 12 carries a game.  Last year Demps averaged 7 yards a carry and 1 TD per 14 carries.  Projecting that out, Demps is looking at an additional 5-8 TDs or so, which isn’t a minor improvement.

WIDE RECEIVER
1.  Darvin Adams, Auburn
2.  AJ Green, Georgia
3.  Randall Cobb, Kentucky
4.  Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina
5.  Greg Childs, Arkansas
6.  Andre Dubose, Florida
7.  Terrance Tolliver, LSU
8.  Julio Jones, Alabama
9.  Gerald Jones, Tennessee
10.  Joe Adams, Arkansas

Once again, we have some issues with top-heavy talent.  Darvin Adams was a beast last season, and as the leading returning receiver in a Malzahn offense (sense a trend yet?) he’s quality.  With Randall Cobb functioning as the other half of the Kentucky offense, that’s worth paying attention to as well.  In Kentucky’s case, they don’t really have any other dynamic playmakers beyond Locke and Cobb; with QB Morgan Newton entering his sophomore year, expect to see Cobb (a former QB in his own right) getting plenty of snaps at the Wildcats’, er, Wildcat formation.  Yeah.  Imagination.  Go!

It was a minor upset to see AJ Green turn into a more productive WR than Julio Jones; sure, both are the focal points of their respective team’s passing games, but Green has a bit more talent on his team at wideout (or he’s better at shaking double-teams).  Of course, the “primary WR target as viable fantasy option” is where the SEC makes it bones right now – Alshon Jeffery, Tolliver, and Gerald Jones fall into this category.  To an extent, Greg Childs falls into this category as well, except Arkansas’ passing attack is pretty high-powered so Joe Adams pops up at the bottom of this list (it’s either him or Chad Bumphis, and I’m not ready for a reality where a Mississippi State WR is a fantasy commodity).

That leaves Andre Dubose, who’s easily the most fascinating guy on this list.  Dubose was injured all of last season, but the vibe on Dubose is Percy Harvin 2.0.  Last year Florida had a glaring need for this kind of player and playmaker – Demps is good but not in that mold, and Chris Rainey didn’t seem to take to that role.  Dubose, on the other hand, looks like he could be that guy.  However, injuries are a very real concern with him.  He could easily end up as the most productive WR in the conference, but hedge your bets if you can.

TIGHT ENDS
1.  Luke Stocker, Tennessee
2.  DJ Williams, Arkansas
3.  Weslye Saunders, South Carolina
4.  Brandon Barden, Vanderbilt

DJ Williams is the SEC tight end that gets the most press, and deservedly so.  However, Stocker came into his own last season after a relatively quiet first month.  Stocker is also fortunate to be playing for a questionable offense, which could easily drive balls to the tight ends.  Williams is the third outlet – granted, it’s on a pass-first offense, but it’s still a third outlet.  Saunders and Barden are pretty much “slightly better than a warm body” territory, and are only included because I told myself I’d include four tight ends in this ranking.  With Saunders’ possible eligibility issues (NCAA investigators have set up a field office in front of his apartment / hotel room), he’ll drop off the list, leaving …. *throws dart* Orson Charles.

KICKERS
1.  Blair Walsh, Georgia
2.  Caleb Sturgis, Florida
3.  Wes Bynum, Auburn
4.  Alex Tejada, Arkansas

I have a simple formula for evaluating kickers: look for quality legs on shaky offenses, and then look for extra points galore.  That really about sums it up.  Walsh is the best leg by far in the SEC this season, and he has both range and accuracy; not trusting Georgia’s offense is just the icing on the cake.  The remaining kickers are, accurately enough, kickers who get to play for possibly the three most explosive offenses in the conference.  There are worse fates.

DEFENSE
1.  Alabama
2.  Florida
3.  South Carolina
4.  LSU

I don’t know how to put this, but SEC defenses this year are kind of a fantasy wasteland.  The two premier defenses in the league shed a combined 15 starters and one defensive coordinator over the offseason; even with that, they’re still the class of the crop.  Outfits from Georgia and Tennessee flipped DCs – Georgia opting for the pro route, Tennessee bringing in Boise State DC Justin Wilcox – and while both hires are likely to bear fantasy fruit, it won’t be this season.

That leaves Ellis Johnson and John Chavis, which aren’t bad fallback options.  Johnson in particular has put together one of the better under-the-radar defenses at South Carolina over the last few years.  Chavis is in year two of his LSU stint; while I don’t expect him to get any help from his offense, he’s done well enough in that situation before (see: Tennessee 2005, Tennessee 2008).

Related posts:

1. SEC Breakdowns & Projections
2. SEC Preview: It’s good to be the Commodores
3. SEC Preview: Top 25 matchups live here

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The Independent school that has piqued the most interest is Notre Dame, as they bring in new head coach Brian Kelly (photo, thanks, Scout.com).  Kelly has produced potent offenses, and winning teams, while at Central Michigan and (most recently) Cincinnati….and could put some spark into a Fighting Irish offense that could use a little more consistency.

Meanwhile, Navy and Army will continue to run their option offenses, giving fantasy players some running, fantasy-worthy QBs

——————————————————————————

——————————————————————————

ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS

This is head coach Rich Ellerson’s second year at West Point, and look for Army to be a little more familiar with the new option offense installed last season.  Also, with a relatively easy 2010 schedule (especially early in the season), the Black Knights will have some late-round fantasy considerations on the roster.

QB Trent Steelman should improve on his 2009 numbers, where he rushed for over 700 yards, 5 rushing TDs, and threw for another 637 yards (3 passing TDs)….as a freshman.  An interesting pick could be FB Jared Hassan, an Air Force transfer who is 6-3, 235 lbs…about as big as the USMA offensive lineman  RB/SB Patrick Mealy rushed for nearly 700 yards and 3 TDs in 2009…averaging 6 yards per carry.

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

Two words:  Ricky Dobbs.  The Middies QB set an NCAA record for single-season rushing TDs by a QB last season, with 27.  With all those TDs, Dobbs also rushed for 1203 yards, threw for 1031 (at nearly 10 yards per completion), and tossed 6 TD passes.  With 3 O-Line starters back, and, a little easier schedule…Dobbs could equal those totals this season.  He is a first-round pick in any fantasy league….especially those that reward rushing TDs more than passing TDs.

Although USNA’s option attack distributes the ball to many different backs and receivers, FB Vince Murray is a nice late-round pick up…as he rushed for nearly 1000 yards and scored 6 TDs in 2009…Murray definitely gets 15-17 carries per game.  RB/SB Marcus Curry is a big play threat every time he has the ball….rushing for nearly 600 yards (7.2 yds per carry), averaged over 28 yards per catch on 10 receptions…and scored 8 total TDs…Curry’s big play ability is nice for leagues that offer bonuses for big-play TDs.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

So, what talent does Brian Kelly have on his first Irish squad that will pique the interest of fantasy players?  Start with WR Michael Floyd, who had nearly 800 yards receiving and 9 TDs…all while missing a few games due to injury, and, being the second WR target behind the departed Golden Tate.  Floyd should surpass his 2009 totals in 2010, and he is one of the top WRs for your fantasy draft.

The new starting QB should be Dayne Crist, who was one of the most heralded prep QBs a couple of years ago, and worthy of a draft pick.  Along with WR Floyd, he will have some other good targets in experienced WR Duval Kamara (218 rec yds, 1 TD) and TE Kyle Rudolph (364 rec yds, 3 TDs)….Rudolph is especially valuable in leagues where TE must play.

Do not look for any real improvement in the running game under Kelly, as his offenses are geared to pass.   A late-round pick may be had in RB Armando Allen, who had almost 700 yards rushing, over 200 yards receiving, and 3 TDs.

Related posts:

1. INDEPENDENTS 2009 PREVIEW
2. Independents Preview
3. WAC 2010 PREVIEW

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Georgia Tech Team Breakdown

Returning starters Offense: 7, Defense: 8, Punter/Kicker: 2

Quarterback – Joshua Nesbitt (right, courtesy of SMI) will once again lead Tech’s hi-powered triple option offense and this time could see less success. With this being the third year of GT running the offense, the ACC has had yet another year to gear up and learn the tricks. Add in some new defensive coaches that will be hell bent on stopping the option along with Tech losing itstop receiver (Demaryius Thomas) and top running back (Jonathan Dwyer) and I predict they will struggle to find the success that they had last year. Losing Thomas is probably the bigger blow. The first-round draft pick accounted for more than 66 percent of the team’s receiving yards. If Nesbitt (who missed the spring due to ankle surgery) goes down, Georgia Tech will have turn to Tevin Washington. If you look at his stat line, you will see he has thrown one career pass.

Running Back – Georgia Tech lost Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yards), but returns Anthony Allen, who led the team with a gaudy 9.7 yards per carry average. Juniors Marcus Wright (5.8 per carry) and Roddy White (6.5 per carry) also figure to be in the mix. Any starting or second RB in GT’s offense is going to put up great figures, so draft away.

Wide Receiver – Losing Demaryius Thomas is a tremendous blow for the Yellow Jackets. For all practical purposes, Thomas was Georgia Tech’s receiving game last season. A running back, Embry Pebbles, was second on the team with eight receptions. The good news is that coach Paul Johnson believes sophomore receiver Stephen Hill (6-4, 195) has the physical tools to be a star and will step into the large hole left behind. Look for the Jackets to make an effort to throw more to the A-backs, or slot backs, this year.

Tight End – Tech employs no Tight Ends in their offense. Expect more of the same out of this position as Paul Johnson plans to use more run-and-shoot elements, geared towards his wide receivers, to his triple option offense.

Defense – Georgia Tech hired former Virginia head coach, Al Groh, to help this defense turn a new page. They transition to a 3-4 defense but not all of the positions are completely sorted out as they lack all of the talent needed. This defense will struggle, especially early on and I just cannot see them being at the top of the league. Draft low if you have to as I consider this a mid-pack defense.

Kicker/Special Teams – Senior Scott Blair has the kicking job down, but watch for a small competition in the fall camps just to try and spark a little more productivity out of him. He returns from a junior campaign that yielded a 97% extra point accuracy but only a 70% field goal accuracy. I would expect most of Blair’s points to come from extra points versus field goals, just like it was last year.

Schedule – Georgia Tech has a pretty solid schedule. They play some easier non-conference games against South Carolina State and Middle Tennessee State, but they also have to play at Kansas and at Georgia as the last game of the season. Their conference schedule is going to be brutal as they play at UNC and at Virginia Tech, but at least they host Miami. A split schedule of six home games and six away games should make for a very interesting season for this team.

Maryland Team Breakdown

Returning starters: Offense: 7, Defense: 5, Punter/Kicker: 2

Quarterback – Starter Chris Turner has graduated which left behind untested youngsters at the position. Maryland wrapped up spring with Jamarr Robinson as its new quarterback, Danny O’Brien his backup and C.J. Brown No. 3. Robinson made good decisions, threw the ball pretty well and limited his turnovers despite two picks in the spring game. He has a quiet confidence and started to become more of a leader, taking control of the huddle. Expect meager stats for a new QB in an already struggling offense with a leaky O Line.

Running Back – Da’Rel Scott returns for one last crack at it. He fared much better in 2008 than he did in 2009, but he should see some solid carries this year. I expect a mediocre season fantasy wise, so I wouldn’t draft him. Watch him on the waivers or free agency as the season progresses as the offense may pick up a little more steam as their new QB gets broken in.

Wide Receiver – Torrey Smith is a playmaker and should be a star this year. He was one of the top 5 WR in the ACC last year and should be again this year. He’s a threat with the ball in hands and has even taken a couple of kick/punt returns for a score which could be bonus points. I would take Torrey in the mid rounds of your draft and use him as a flex player.

Tight End – Tommy Galt looks like the starter at TE. He had an okay year with 14 grabs last season. Expect the tight end position to be more of an additional blocker as the offensive line has struggled throughout the spring.

Defense – The explosion of LB Alex Wujciak shows that Friedgen still knows how to recruit some elite level talent for this team. He was a force that many didn’t see coming. The overall defense will change somewhat as some new coaching has been brought in to try and reinvigorate a stagnant team. Like Georgia Tech, I consider this defense to be a middle of the pack.

Kicker/Special Teams – Maryland found their kicker in Nick Ferrara who was 100% on PATS and 72% accurate on Field Goals. The problem is that this offense does not move the ball well enough on a consistent basis for him to be much of a factor. I think Ferrara will end up around the # 6 or #7 spot in the ACC by season’s end, not because of talent or ability, but because of opportunity.

Schedule – Like last year, Maryland gets all of their non-conference games out of the way first. They host some should-be-easy games against Morgan State and FIU, but start off with a tough game against Navy and then West Virginia two weeks later. They escaped having to play UNC, Virginia Tech, or Georgia Tech which will help. I expect this team to be .500 by season’s end.

Miami Team Breakdown

Returning starters: Offense: 6, Defense: 8, Punter/Kicker: 2

Quarterback – Jacory Harris returns with a full year of experience under Mark Whipple’s offense. He may the biggest enigma in the league. The junior has a penchant for making big plays and also poor decisions. He is the first Miami quarterback to throw for 3,000 yards since Ken Dorsey but also had 17 interceptions last season, which ranked second most in the FBS. This just shows that even with success, he still has a ways to go. The smack down by Wisconsin in the bowl game just proves that this team is good, but not great. I expect another year of similar stats for Harris, with a few less INTs.

Running Back – Like FSU, this will end up being a RB-by-committee situation for Miami as they had arguably the best spring of any position group and proved they’re still deep, despite the loss of James and not having Cooper, who is recovering from a torn ACL. Lamar Miller, a redshirt freshman, was tough to bring down in the open field, and had good speed. Storm Johnson, a true freshman who enrolled early, picked up the offense quickly and ran hard. Damien Berry showed the same form he had at the end of the season when he finished strong, and Mike James returned to running back from fullback. Watch for some impressive numbers, but not by any one particular RB. Damien Berry, who posted a team-high 6.6 yards per carry in ’09, should be the starter and will have the most chance to be the star.

Wide Receiver – The Hurricanes boast perhaps the best receiver in the league in Leonard Hankerson (17.8 yards per catch) and two other proven receivers in Travis Benjamin (17.3 yards per catch) and LaRon Byrd (13.9 yards per catch). With one full year in Whipple’s offense, each of these players will see improvement. Couple that with no clear star TE, and the WR group looks like they may see some more action their way.

Tight End – They lost their top three tight ends, including Dedrick Epps and Jimmy Graham, who combined for eight touchdown catches. Senior Richard Gordon stands out to me as the next viable TE for the U, but if it’s not him then I’m looking to Chase Ford who is a JUCO transfer. He led the Southwest Junior College Football Conference with 32 receptions and 545 receiving yards last year. I don’t expect many teams will respect this yeas TE crop for Miami which could land them some good numbers at the beginning of the season.

Defense – Miami’s D will be good as always as they did not lose a whole lot of the skill positions on defense. Miami played a ton of underclassmen last year and will look to do the same as they incorporate Rey Rey Armstrong at Safety. The biggest weakness last year on this team was in the secondary as they still weren’t able to generate a whole lot of turnovers. Randy Shannon knew what needed to be tweaked and he recruited for it. DE Allen Bailey will be an unstoppable freight train on the edge that will be looking to raise his draft stock during his senior season.

Kicker/Special Teams – Kick Matt Bosher is returning which provides a great boost to Miami’s special teams. He was 50 for 50 on PATS and 87% with field goals. He didn’t have as many field goal opportunities as some of the other kickers in 2009, but I would expect his attempts to jump quite a bit as Miami should be able to move the ball well as everyone has a year under their belt in Mark Whipple’s scheme.

Schedule – After their first cupcake, Miami probably has the single worst opening to a season out of any team this year. They play at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, at Clemson and then host FSU. They do get to host UNC and Virginia Tech mid season which should give them a slight advantage, but an away game at Georgia Tech could be troublesome.

North Carolina Team Breakdown

Returning starters: Offense: 10, Defense: 9, Punter/Kicker: 2

Quarterback – Three-year starter T.J. Yates was outplayed in the spring game by redshirt freshman Bryn Renner, which opens the door for possible controversy. Watch for Yates to be held on a short leash here. If WR Greg Little ends up having some sort of suspension due to the Miami party, then Yates is going to lose his top WR threat.  This leaves an underwhelming group of receivers to catch the balls. I don’t expect this team to fare all that well fantasy wise. Look for a passing TD total in the low teens to match the number of INTs that will be thrown.

Running Back – North Carolina had a backfield that most in the league underestimated. Despite an offensive line that suffered a multitude of injuries, Ryan Houston managed to gain 713 rushing yards last season and Shaun Draughn had 596 despite missing four games with a wrist injury. Both return and if the O-line can get healthy, UNC’s production should improve sharply. Draughn reasserted himself as the main man this spring with Houston out to concentrate on his academics, so he appears to be the likely starter heading into the fall. I expect both backs to eclipse 650 yards and about 5-7 TDs each.

Wide Receiver – Tar Heels return every key receiver, including the dynamic Greg Little, who became just the fifth player in school history to have at least 60 catches in a season. Let it be said here that I predicted Greg Little to be one of the leading WR in the ACC last year, and he was! I expect this team to be about as productive offensively as it was last year as not much has changed. If Little avoids any suspensions, he’s the guy I would draft late for fantasy.

Tight End – Zack Pianalto who is the school’s all-time receptions leader among tight ends is back after a season-ending injury. Look for him to be a big red-zone target and one of TJ Yates’ favorite.

Defense – The good news for North Carolina is that all of the scandals really focused on just one player from the defensive side, Marvin Austin. The problem with that is if, and it’s still an if, they lose Austin for any time, it leaves a huge hole.  He is one of the biggest playmakers on that side of the ball. They do, however, return linebacker Quan Sturdivant, and defensive end Robert Quinn who look to make their senior years a memorable one. The defense should be able to keep this team in games early on while the offense continues to work out the kinks. They are the best defense in the ACC and probably in the whole NCAA.

Kicker/Special Teams – Casey Barth stepped in from the start last year and had a very solid year. He only missed one of his 35 PATs and 21 for 25 on his field goals. With another year to mature, he should be even better as the offense will not be as stagnant as they were last year. Look for him to have more opportunities this fall to score some points.

Schedule – North Carolina has a rough opening schedule as they start against LSU and then Georgia Tech. They face Clemson midseason and have away games at Miami and FSU. At least they get Virginia Tech home. Tough schedule for a team going through some turmoil at the moment.

Related posts:

1. 2010 ACC Preview – Part 3
2. 2010 ACC Preview – Part 1
3. ACC Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Well Buckeye fans, this is the year the Buckeyes take the BCS title.  They are loaded with weapons and ready to unleash their destruction upon anyone that steps in their way.  If the Terrelle Pryor (featured on the right, thanks SMI) we saw in the Rose Bowl shows up this season, the Buckeyes will be unstoppable.  It is time for the Buckeyes to take the next step and become national champions.

Head coach Jim Tressell has a team with plenty of experience and weapons.  This year he will utilize those weapons more efficiently than ever.  Expect to see better passing numbers from Terrelle Pryor. The QB has shown he knows how to use his legs to open up the passing game and he was throwing lasers in the Rose Bowl.  His completion percentage should take a huge jump this season and his rushing yards should decline a little as Tressell attempts to get the QB to throw more this year.

That is good news for RB Brandon Saine, who rushed for 739 yards and 4 TD’s last year.  Saine should get more work this season and come closer to posting 1,000 yards.  Dan Herron should also see increased carries this season and improve on his 600 yards from 2009.

The Buckeyes have two of the top Big 10 receivers returning this year.  Expect to see big numbers from DeVier Posey who posted 828 yards and 8 TD’s last season.  Dane Sanzenbacher will also see an increase in numbers over last years 570 yards and 6 TD’s.  Both receivers will benefit from breakdowns in coverage created by Pryor scrambling around in the backfield.  Tight End Jake Stoneburner is a great blocker and has the ability to get down the field.The Buckeye defense will be one of the best in the nation this year.  Ross Homan, Brian Rolle, Chimdi Chekwa and Cameron Heyward anchor this defensive unit.  The only weakness for now is concerning the safeties.  But when you have big monsters attacking the offense and keeping the opposing QB on his heels, it should keep the pressure off your safeties.

The good news for the Iowa Hawkeyes is that QB Ricky Stanzi is back for his Sr. year and it should be a great one.  He finished last year with 2,417 yards and 17 TD’s.  The downside, he also threw 15 interceptions.  He has to reduce that number for the Hawkeyes to have a real chance at contending for the Big Ten title against Ohio State.  The offensive line has some questions with the loss of three big men from last year.  With a rebuilding line and a tendency to play close games, as well as falling behind early in games, it may put pressure on Stanzi to produce those numbers again this year.

The bright side is the running game will take some of the heat off Stanzi.  Adam Robinson should see an increase in his number over last years 834 yards and 5 TD’s.  Brandon Wegher compiled 641 yards last year and 8 TD’s.  Jewel Hampton, who tore his ACL last August, also returns to give coach Kirk Ferentz a triple threat running attack.  Expect the bulk of the carries from Robinson but Wegher and Hampton should split the rest of the work load.

Stanzi does have the luxury of throwing to two familiar faces at the wide receiver position.  Derrell Johnson-Koulianos hauled in 750 yards last year and 2 TD’s while Marvin McNutt pulled in 674 yards and 8 TD’s.  Expect to see similar yardage numbers from these guys and an increase in TD’s for Johnson-Koulianos.  Tight End Andy Reisner returns and should see a better year than last years 143 yards and 1 TD.

The Defense should be tested this season after an impressive 2009 campaign.  They should be able to fill many of the holes and build on an already strong and experienced defensive core.

The big question is who is that playing QB this year for the Penn State Nittany Lions?  Kevin Newsome is expected to be the guy.  He has good size and is mobile enough to buy time as he learns how to run the Spread HD attack.  Newsome will be a gamble in fantasy leagues this year but will be one with lots of upside potential considering the weapons he has at his disposal.

It doesn’t hurt to have one of the best running backs in the conference in your backfield.  Evan Royster should build on last years numbers (1169 yards and 6 TD’s) as he carries more of the load this year.  Royster is one of those backs that can be fed the ball 20 or more times a game and do well.  Something Newsome can use in his first year.

The receiving game is one of the best in the Big Ten with Derek Moye (785 yards and 6 TD’s) and Graham Zug (600 yards and 7 TD’s).  Chaz Powell also had 28 catches last year.  All three may see a slight decline in numbers this year with a new QB.  From a fantasy perspective the tight end spot is a gamble.  Andrew Szczerba is expected to be the starter but he caught just one pass last year.  Add in the fact that he has a new QB and it is a tough call on what to expect from the TE spot.

The defense has some big holes to fill this year but Joe Pa has always had good defensive units.  Bani Gbadyu and Nathan Stupar should provide solid replacements at linebacker.  The defensive line has Ollie Ogbu and Jack Crawford returning to a strong line.  The safeties are strong as well with the return of Drew Astorino and Nick Sukay.

I have the Wisconsin Badgers ranked 4^th in the Big Ten mainly due to their defense and concerns over the way the team struggled after tough losses in 2009.  They could be a surprise team this year though since they don’t have to play Penn State and their toughest games are back to back against Ohio State and Iowa.  The rest of the schedule is not that bad.

Scott Tolzien returns to lead the Badger air attack where he compiled 2,705 yards and 16 TD’s in 2009 and led the Big Ten in passing efficiency.  He should improve in accuracy, passing yards and TD’s this year as well as cut down on those pesky INT’s.

The key to the Badger attack though is all about RB John Clay, the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year last year.  Clay racked up 1,517 yards and scored 18 times.  Expect big numbers again from Clay as he makes a run for the Heisman behind his big offensive line.  All five offensive lineman return for another season to pave the way for Clay.

At the receiver spot Tolzien will have one of the best Big Ten wide outs in Nick Toon to throw too again.  Last year, Nick caught 54 balls for 805 yards and 4 TD’s.  Look for Nick to improve on those numbers this year.  Isaac Anderson will also return and should improve on last years 480 yards and 2 TD’s.  Lance Kendricks should fill in well at Tight end and improve on last years 356 yards and 3 TD’s.

The Defense is a big question mark for the Badgers.  Three of the front four have left and there are some really big shoes to fill at end.  In total, five starters on defense have to be replaced and that is a little alarming.  Last year the Badger defense yielded an average of 21.8 points a game.  I’m not sure this Badger defense will be better than that.  I would try to find another defense to draft.

Related posts:

1. 2010 Big 10 Preview – Part 2
2. INDEPENDENTS 2010 PREVIEW
3. Ohio Bobcats 2010 Preview

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Have a good number of players become fantasy-friendly (i.e….lots of stats):  Check.

Dominate the BCS conference mostly to the west of us (Pac-10):  Check.

Crash the BCS:  Check.

The MWC has been active in the 2010 off-season, becoming one of the players in the recent conference re-shuffling (losing Utah, but gaining Boise State).  During the 2010 regular season, the MWC will also produce a number of fantasy prospects, including TCU QB Andy Dalton (photo, thanks Scout.com)

————————————————————————

————————————————————————

AIR FORCE FALCONS

You have a lot of late-round options on the AFA roster in 2010.   Starting at QB, Tim Jefferson (848 yds pass, 5 pass TDs; 254 yds rush, 4 rush TD) should beat out Connor Dietz (369 rush yds, 1 TD), as Jefferson has a better arm.  Jefferson is a nice late consideration.

The top fantasy consideration on the AFA roster will be FB Jared Tew (970 rush yds, 9 TDs), who is guaranteed to get nearly 20 carries per game.  Another good consideration is TB Asher Clark (865 rush yds, 7 TDs), who was formerly the Falcons starting QB.  Although Air Force passes around 10-12 times per game, WR Kevin Fogler had 567 rec yds, 5 TDs receiving, and averaged nearly 23 yards per catch last season…and someone to consider late-draft.

The AFA Defense was one of the best fantasy defenses in America last season, and could be as good as they return 6 starters….a large number for a service academy.  Including those returnees from a theft-happy defense is CB Anthony Wright, who had 7 INTs last year.  Seems like you can also be stopped by the US Air Force….take the Falcon defense in your draft.

BYU COUGARS

It will be an interesting season in Provo as the Cougars will have to replace some key players who put up big numbers the past few seasons.

QB Max Hall moves on, and it still is up in the air as who will replace him.  Riley Nelson has the most experience (mainly while he was at Utah State), while incoming freshman Jake Heaps was arguably the top HS QB in the nation last season.   Favor Nelson as the starter on opening day, as I do not see Heaps getting the start as a true freshman, as he will most likely head off on a Mormon mission the next two seasons.  Note also, Nelson is much more mobile than his predecessor Hall….and makes him a strong fantasy consideration.

The biggest loss may be RB Harvey Unga, who was booted out of school for moral infractions.  Losing a certain-1000 yd rusher is huge, and replacing him will be tough.  The top replacement will be J.J. DiLuigi, who is a good receiver out of the backfield, like Unga, but lacks Unga’s size.  DiLuigi will be a nice late-round pick up.

The Cougars also lose TE Dennis Pitta, who was one of the most productive TEs in the land….his replacement most likely will be freshman.  At WR, big-play specialist WR McKay Jacobson (556 yards, 24.2 per catch, 4 TDs) returns, and put up respectable numbers even while missing 4 games.   O’Neill Chambers (376 yds, 1 TD), Luke Ashworth (367 yards, 4 TDs), and true freshman Ross Apo are good late-round considerations.

COLORADO STATE RAMS

After a dismal 3-9 season, the Rams will need new players to step up on offense, replacing a cadre of productive players

The most interesting addition will be true freshman QB Pete Thomas, who is a big-time recruit seldom seen in Fort Collins.   Thomas should beat out the veterans ahead of him on the roster….but, wait until your free agent/supplemental draft to grab him.

WR Tyson Liggett (253 yards, 3 TDs) is the top returning WR, and will most likely be the main target of Thomas.  At RB, John Mosure (6 TDs last year) or UCLA transfer Raymond Carter should get the bulk of the carries.  Likewise as with Thomas, hold off on the Rams WRs and RBs until free agent/supplemental time.

NEW MEXICO LOBOS

This was a bad football team last season, whose highlight was a fight among the coaching staff.  UNMs best player, QB Donovan Porterie, has used up his eligiblity….thank God for him.

Probably the only fantasy-worthy player may be WR Ty Kirk, who had 427 receiving yards and 2 TDs…and that is stretching it.   The Lobos best chance for success may be the weekend of October 16th….they are off that weekend.

SAN DIEGO STATE

With a favorable non-conferece slate, San Diego State will have some good fantasy considerations in 2010.

QB Ryan Lindley threw for over 3000 yards and 23 TDs in 2009, and could throw for more in head coach Brady Hoke’s offense.  Lindley’s top two targets are back, WRs DeMarco Sampson (851 yds, 8 TDs) and Vincent Brown (778 yds, 6 TDs).  The three will make good late-round fantasy picks, and you may end up playing them more in 2010 than you planned.

The ground game was weak at SDSU last season, but Brandon Sullivan (675 toal yds, 4 total TDs) will move to FB…and he will do more than just block.  Sullivan makes a decent late-round pick, or, one to consider during free agent/supplemental drafting.   Note that the Aztecs return most of their O-Line from last season.

TCU HORNED FROGS

After a 2009 season where they just dominated the MWC, TCU appears to have another dominant season in the works.  The top fantasy consideration is QB Andy Dalton, who threw for nearly 2800 yards and 23 TDs in 2009….while rushing for 512 yards and another 3 TDs.  With most of his key weapons returning, Dalton will be a definite #2 QB for your fantasy roster….maybe even strong enough to be your #1 QB.

At RB, there is not one fantasy standout, but there are good candidates for late draft picks.  Sophomores Matthew Tucker (676 yds, 8 TDs) and Ed Wesley (638 yds, 4 TDs) will lead a balanced ground attack, running behind 4 returning O-Line starters.  Waymon James is a redshirt frosh who should see some playing time in 2010.

There is a lot of balance and depth at WR, which means that each individual Horned Frog WR is a late pick at best.  Jeremy Kerley led the team in rec. yards with 532, and had 4 total TDs (2 TDs on punt returns).  Jimmy Young (517 yards, 3 TD) and Antoine Hicks (478 yds, 8 TDs) also catch their share of passes.

With seven returning starters, the TCU Defense will be one of the best in the nation.  Although they lose All-American DE Jerry Hughes, the Horned Frog defense may be even better this season (at least for fantasy) as the MWC, as a whole, does not look as strong on offense for 2010.  Also, PK Ross Evans scored 96 points last season (including 15-18 FGs)…and will be one of the top PKs this season.

UNLV REBELS

A new coach (Bobby Hauck, from FCS Montana) is at UNLV this season, and there will be some talent on the roster.

QB Omar Clayton is a better QB than his numbers reveal (2230 yds, 13 TDs passing)…and will have WRs Phillip Payne (661 yds, 7 TDs) and Michael Johnson (464 yds, 1 TDs) to throw to.  All three are late-round considerations, with Payne being the best in the group.

RB duties could be split with Channing Trotter and C.J. Cox…though Trotter did have 9 TDs last season.  I would hold off on Rebels RBs until free agent/supplemental draft.

UTAH UTES

In their final season in the MWC, the Utes have a few late-round fantasy considerations.  QB Jordan Wynn, who started the last 6 games for the Utes, threw for over 1300 yards and 8 TDs, and should beat out Terrance Cain for the starting QB job (although Cain is a better runner).   Take Wynn late…if he does not pan out, Cain could get the call.

Utah is deep at RB, with Eddie Wide and his 1000+ rushing yards (12 TDs) returning.  His value may be a little diminshed, as backfield mate Matt Asiata (330 yards, 4 TDs) was granted a sixth-year of eligibility.  Expect both backs to see playing time….Wide is the small, speedy back, while Asiata is a big bruiser.

At WR, the top fantasy consideration is Jereme Brooks, who had nearly 700 yards and 7 TDs last season.  An interesting pick late could be WR Shaky Smithson, who rushed for 198 yards, had 100 yards receiving, and also returns kicks and punts.

PK Joe Phillips is a kicker to look for late, or free agent/supplemental…as he hit 20 FGs last season, scoring 98 points.

WYOMING COWBOYS

Fresh off a bowl-game winning season in 2009, the Cowboys will have some interesting fantasy considerations.  QB Austyn Carta-Samuels is a late-round consideration, not so much for his passing (1953 yds, 10 TDs), but for his running (366 yds, 3 TDs).  The sophomore’s production should improve a little in 2010.

Alvester Alexander is a serviceable back, rushing for 640 yards and 7 TDs in 2009, but is not much of a target in the pasing game (8 catches).  At WR, David Leonard is a top target, with 705 yards and 3 TDs…but averaged only 9 yards per catch in 2009.

Related posts:

1. MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE 2009 PREVIEW
2. 2009 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE ALL-FANTASY TEAM
3. SUN BELT CONFERENCE 2010 PREVIEW

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

We discuss not only the Top 5 at each position, but also debate the placement of some big names to the national media that we just do not expect to rack up the stats. And Drew surprises Vince with three wide receiver names that even he had never heard of!

Seriously, if you would like some custom work done for your cheatsheets, Drew offers as much at about the 35 min mark. Email him at drew [at] fantasycollegeblitz [dot] com. Follow his “Tweeter” feed at twitter.com/fcbdrew

Feedback on the podcast, or media inquiries, please email vince [at] fantasycollegeblitz [dot] com.

Related posts:

1. Drew and Vince owned the CF Geek Draft
2. PODCAST: Vince on Mc’s Sports Fix
3. Podcast: NFL Draft Skill Position Breakdown

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

One of Oregon State Jacquizz Rodgers 34 career TDs - can he do that in 2010 alone? (IconSMI)

RB by committee (RBBC) – I have long held that why should I draft an average-plus talent who shares carries above an average talent who will likely be the main guy. I will post my RBBC to watch later since there are some quality players and programs involved (e.g., Utah, Texas) that merit monitoring over the course of the next couple weeks.

“Achtung” list – Guys I just do not trust and should be handled with care (again, a future post).  I got close to 100 names here all of whom I would trust on my lineup, so I will just leave guys off here so as to focus on the valuable RBs.

Trust your preparation!

This was driven home to me a couple months back while golfing – I questioned my putt while in the stance, and of course I over-corrected and missed the par. I repeated the mantra as I approached the rest of the greens and performed much better. Very easy to apply this concept to many tasks, but focusing on fantasy college football here means to appreciate what is on the list, not what is absent.

After the jump, I will break out my RBs by tiers of expected performance (with rankings within the cohort less a concern) with important backups.

PS – after I post the WR list later this week, I will put all my Minimalist list onto one sheet for you.

TIER ONE (1500+ and 15+TD expectations)

Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State - my #1 due to dual-threat ability and TD excellence. 2000y-20TD is legit target.
Dion Lewis, Pitt – a very special back playing for a coach that leans on his RBs.
Vai Taua, Nevada - not sure he is my #3, but belongs near the top of any 2010 list
Shane Vereen, Cal - Matt Ryan and I discussed the Cal system at length, and we agreed there is usually a set depth chart but the #2 often leechs yards and TDs, with rare occassions (JJ Arrington, Echimandu) where there was a true fantasy stud. I remember the first time I saw Vereen he reminded me of a quicker, smaller Emmitt Smith. My “contextual vision” is that Vereen will be the stud.
Lance Dunbar, North Texas – entire OL returns so he is poised to abuse the Sun Belt again.
Donald Buckram, UTEP – I think he can do it again in 2010, so very consistent with two games over 300 yds from scrimmage.
Daniel Thomas, Kansas State - just learning the position on the fly in 2009, the former QB also just moved into my top tier.
—
TIER TWO (1500-10)

Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State – I want to believe his return to health plus the addition of OC Dana Holgerson means a top tier kind of year, but the grand total of 4 offensive starters returning will hold him back. 2009 Charles Sims-like numbers might squeak him up to Tier One, especially if Hunter remains healthy.
Mark Ingram, Alabama - I fear that the emergence of Trent Richardson will hold him back from a 2000-20 year like 2009′s Heisman Trophy season. Regardless, see where I have him slotted as the main cog in an offense returning all starters.
John Clay, Wisconsin – big fella knows how to get to the endzone, and like Bama lots of returning starters all along the offense to give you more confidence with this Badger.
Noel Devine, West Virginia – big plays have never been a problem for Devine, but consistency has. I will call the 1500 YFS a lock, but with TDs going up from 4 to 14 last year I am expecting a settle to the mean holding him back from superstardom. BUT, with new skill position starters all around him would you be surprised to see 2000-20 with a couple kick return TDs? That potential is why he is in the second group and not the third.
DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma – health has always been Murray’s issue, got to like the way the Sooners played last year despite all the injuries. Murray and Landry Jones likely the most beneficiaries of the resurgence.
Ryan Williams, Virgina Tech – Yes, Darren Evans returns, but I think there are plenty of yards and TD spikes to go around. While they may get kicked off the national title stage in Week One against Boise, the rest of the schedule can be handled to finish up a strong season.
Evan Royster, Penn State – Royster has yet to be drafted in this position in my experience this preseason, I am pretty sure that Royster will carry the load for the Nittanys until QB Newsome finds his groove. And then likely even more carries as Royster sets up to be Penn State’s all-time leading rusher.
—

TIER THREE (1000-10)
Derrick Washington, Missouri – senior captain in an expolsive offense with new WRs all around.
Montel Harris, Boston College - coming off 300+ carries, usually predicts a pullback in stats due to wear and tear.
Baron Batch, Texas Tech – safest Red Raider pick with new coach Tommy Tuberville.
Bryce Beall, Houston – with the Sims suspension, Beall should ring up lots of stats.
Mario Fannin, Auburn - my appreciation of his talent should be known to long-time readers. I do not expect ben Tate numbers, but I would expect him to be an RB2 in most leagues, definitely an RB3
Bernard Pierce, Temple - Temple is pushing Pierce as a Heisman contender, a sure sign of the Apocalypse moreso than the Cardinal Climax. Temple looks to be the class of the MAC, my how times have changed.
Jordan Todman, UConn
Anthony Allen, Georgia Tech – not the bruiser of Jonathan Dwyer mold, but adds speed. I do not expect the same digits.
Chad Spann, Northern Illinois – nice bio here illustrates this 22-year-old’s maturity, might be a tier low since he was fifth in the nation in TD last season.
LaMichael James, Oregon - suspended for first game, also seems that many are downgrading Oregon in fantasy due to the Masoli incident.
Waushaun Ealey, Georgia – lots of back in Athens, but easily the most talented.
Roy Helu Jr., Nebraska – more talented than this, but Rex Burkhead will strip carries.
Sam McGuffie, Rice – given the other Owl talent, I expect 25 touces a game. What he can do with that is another question but there is upside potential.
Morgan Williams, Toledo - I am digging the Rockets in 2010, I admit though I tend to adopt one MAC team a year to root for. Remember in 2008 he had 1010 yards.
Alexander Robinson, Iowa -
Martin Ward, Marshall – nice recent trend of strong Herd RBs for us fantasy folks.
Charles Clay, Tulsa – played hurt most of 2009 for a down year for the Golden Hurricane, reports have him healthy so I like him to rebound to 2008 numbers
Da’Rell Scott, Maryland - to give you an idea how different my outlook is on Scott, he wasn’t selected in the recent CFFI All-FBS Mock draft of 11 owners and 16 rounds. This is NFL talent playing for an offensive genius with a veteran line, so stash Scott away as a value pick in the very tough ACC.
MiQuale Lewis, Ball State - #5 rusher in 2008, but 2009 was new coach and new QB that sacked his numbers. I expect a nice rebound from a likely forgotten source.
Alfred Morriss, FAU - I am not feeling a return to his big 2009, so he has been overdrafted in my opinion.
Jeff Demps, Florida – like Noel Devine without the touches.
Mike Ball, Nevada – you can do a lot worse than the #2 RB in the Pistol in Reno.
Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina – yes, the siren call of a talented big RB freshman toting it for Steve Spurrier has my attention. Drew has him at #45 but has admitted to me that he can move up based on camp reports.
Robbie Rouse, Fresno State – will not just step in and make Ryan Mathews like performances.
Stepfan Taylor, Stanford - will not just step in and make Toby Gerhart like performances. I would expect much more passing with a more mature QB Andrew Luck and Coach Harbaugh.

—
TIER FOUR (Great fantasy RB3 or RB4 with upside)

Isaiah Pead, Cincinnati
Derrick Locke, Kentucky
Vince Murray, Navy
Jared Hassin, Akron
Jared Tew, Air Force -
Chris Polk, Washington
Michael Smith – Utah State
Desmond Scott, Duke
Matthew Tucker, TCU
Victor Anderson, Louisville
Alvester Alexander, Wyoming – lots of upside with this soph
JJ Luigi, BYU – beneficiary of the Harvey Unga event.
Ed Martinek, Rutgers – another easy schedule
Frank Goodin, Louisiana-Monroe
Brandon Bolden, Mississippi – I liked him as a deep sleeper before Masoli showed up, his addition can only help.
Bobby Rainey, Western Kentucky – not my #9 ranked RB
Jewel Hampton, Iowa – UPDATE: suspended for the opener
Aaron Winchester, Western Michigan – potential upside for this Bronco
Lennon Creer, Louisiana Tech – RB for Tony Franklin is worth a look, just not as much as the QB
Jonathan Davis, UCF – Brynn Harvey still nursing an injury, Knights prepared to progress without him.

—
Waiting for orders/Handcuffs

Trent Richardson – BAMA
Stephon Green – Penn State
Onterrio McCaleb – Auburn
Mike Dyer – Auburn
Lache Seastrunk – Oregon
CoVaughn Doboskie-Johnson, Cal
Matt Brown, Temple – mighty-mite played large in Pierce’s absence last season.

—-
Did it once…
Eugene Jarvis, Kent State – 6th year of eligibility, but return from kidney issues can be delicate.
Josh Adams, Wake Forest – 1k rusher in his freshman year, but quiet the last two. New QB with this veteran RB for a great coach is a good mix.
Philip Tanner, MT – injured for most of 2009, but 16 TD in 2008.
Deonte Jackson, Idaho – as a 2007 freshman he rocked it for 1300 yfs and 7TD.
Darren Evans, Virginia Tech – may have been a first round fantasy guy in many drafts in 2009, now he has to share the spotlight with Ryan Williams.

You want sleepers? see my article from Sunday.

Related posts:

1. Vince’s Minimalist QB Cheatsheet: A New Paradigm
2. Vince’s Minimalist Cheat Sheet: The new paradigm
3. Vince Mullins’ College Bowl Confidence Picks

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.