Fantasy College Blitz

Running Through the Big 12 Runningbacks

James Lawrence — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:05:01 +0000

We take things for granted in Big 12 country, but not every team in America has a 4000+ yard passer, and 65% completions isn’t universally considered an off week. In many of these other conferences, they have such a lack of confidence in the quarterback’s ability to find even one of his five receivers open, that they just give the ball to someone standing behind the line of scrimmage, and say “have at it!” Most fantasy leagues reflect this passing deficiency, and have several starting spots reserved for such “rushing-backs.”

Kendall Hunter of OSU during the Insight Bowl at Sun Devil Stadium (thanks, ISM.com)

1. Kendall Hunter, OSU

Hunter is the #1 back on the #1 rushing offenses in the Big 12. In 2008, he was the only back in the conference to average over 100 ypg on the ground (1555 yds, 16 TD rush) and with most of the key ingredients returning in 2009, he should minimally duplicate those numbers. I’d look for him to break 1700, as the loss of TE Brandon Pettigrew may force the offense to shift plays over to the ground game.

2. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma

DeMarco Murray was on pace to lead the Sooners in rushing during 2008, were it not for missing the Big 12 Championship Game and the BCS Championship game, a player that was sorely missed in a close setback against the Florida Gators. While Brown and Murray may produce similar ground totals, Murray caught passes for 395 yards and 4 TDs to Brown’s 109 yards and 1 TD - Murray’s use as an outlet receiver make him the better fantasy pick.

3. Chris Brown, Oklahoma

Brown led the Sooners in rushing and in TDs scored in 2008. I only have him behind Murray since his spot on the depth chart - if Murray stays healthy, I expect slightly better numbers from him. However, Brown is the preferred back in goalline situations. He might be more valuable in leagues awarding bonus points for tasteless Rihanna jokes.

4. Roy Helu, Nebraska

Helu put up 803 yards despite starting 2008 in Marlon Lucky’s shadow. Now Lucky’s gone and new QB Zac Lee has minimal experience. The Huskers should be looking to lean on their back with some experience while the offense gels.

5. Jay Finley, Baylor

People who doubt my bold calls for a Bears Breakout in 2009 may shy away from this one, at least for one or two more picks in the conference. But let’s look at the facts: Finley rushed for just 207 yards and 3.8 ypc in 2007 before Hope arrived on campus, then exploded for 865 (5.8) and 7 TDs in 2008. He also caught a pair of sweet tosses to the end zone from The Creamster. Folks, Baylor is the storm nobody sees coming in 2009. Not only are they going to finish with a winning record, but they will produce a pair of 1000 yard rushers. By technicality, they cannot both be Griffin, so this in the next logical choice.

On right, Jake Sharp of Kansas catches a pass during the Orange Bowl (thanks again, ISM.com)

6. Jake Sharp, Kansas

Sharp quietly ran for 860 and 12 in 2008, and should be good for the same this season. If you have your doubts about The Epic Rise of the Bears, draft Sharp 5th.

7. Keith Toston, OSU

Toston largely played mop-up duty in 2008, gaining 686 yards on 6.7 ypc. Towards the end of the season, his ratio of carries relative to Hunter’s were increasing, and I expect OSU to focus their offense even more around the ground attack in 2009. Toston might not reach 1000, but he should top 800.

8. Derrick Washington, Missouri

Washington was a 1000-yard rusher in 2008, but he’s all that returns of the once-mighty Tigers’ offense. He’ll get his carries, as Missouri tries to protect sophomore Blaine Gabbert, who’s moving up from third on the depth chart to starting QB. But defenses won’t be scrambling like mad to cover Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman with Chase Daniel’s precision passing, so expect the fronts to be a lot sturdier.

9. Darrell Scott, Colorado

Scott had a limited 2008 due to injury problems, and carried just 87 times. Nonetheless, the former #1 RB recruit is expected to be the starter in 2009 for an offense that can’t do much other than run the ball.

10. Baron Batch, Texas Tech

Texas Tech had their best rushing year in (forever?) 2008. Really-the air attack was so good, even for Tech’s lofty standards that teams had to sacrifice run support to contain Harrell’s barrage. With a new QB, Michael Crabtree taking off for the NFL, and three new starters on the OL; look for Tech’s ground game to falter a bit.

11. Alexander Robinson, Iowa State

Robinson was a 700 yard rusher in 2008, and with Arnaud returning at QB the offense will probably put up about the same numbers.

12. Vondrell McGee, Texas

I feel compelled to mention again that the Big 12 is not a running conference. McGee gained 376 yards in 2008, sharing the workload with now departed Chris Ogbonnaya. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, while McGee’s carries should improve, the Texas offense will still be centered on Colt McCoy, and jumbo back Cody Johnson will still be the short yardage specialist. McGee may be looking at 500-700 yards rushing this season, but more would require a fundamental change to the offense like Greg Davis deciding to limit McCoy’s rushing attempts.

13. Cody Johnson, Texas

Johnson was one of four Texas RBs to gain between 250 and 400 yards in 2008, a sign of the offensive philosophy (giving the ball to the RB is what’s done to mix things up by not passing, and also to trick the defense even more by not having McCoy run it). Johnson shouldn’t put up big yards — I think Foswhitt Whittaker is going to take over half of Ogbonnaya’s carries, and the rest by McGee - but this is the goalline back, and he punched the ball in 12 times last season. In the scheme of things, Johnson scored 12 rush TD, McCoy 11, and all other Texas RBs combined for 10.

15. Rodney Stewart, Colorado

Stewart actually ran for 622 yards in 2008, although he was a non-factor in the non-existent passing game. However, the Buffs’ leading back ran for just two TDs because Colorado doesn’t score touchdowns - they punt. The Buffs offense is in such disarray, this rushing total may well decrease, and in any case the team certainly isn’t putting points on the board.

Noteworthy:

* Colorado has talent at the RB position and a creative coach who can design plays to open up the field… but star receiver Josh Smith is transferring, and with him go the Buffs’ ability to stretch the field.

* Kansas State was a devastating option team under Bill Snyder up until his retirement. The trademark slate of FCS schools is back on the schedule; if you’re feeling risky, gamble that the ground stats are back with it.

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BYU COUGARS 2009 PREVIEW

Daniel Freer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:13:10 +0000

Even with some big losses at the skill positions, it should be another successful season for the Brigham Young University Cougars…and another season for fantasy players to load up on Cougar talent.

Keyed by the super-productive QB Max Hall (photo, thanks IconSMI), it will be another stat-happy year from one of the top offenses in the nation…and a program that will be looking for another Mountain West Conference title

Also, BYU’s offense may provide one of the surprise fantasy stars in 2009…

STRENGTHS

Begin with QB Hall, who threw for nearly 4000 yards and 35 TDs in 2008, and returns for his third season as a starter. Although not a real threat to run with the ball, Hall did add 4 rushing TDs to his impressive passing totals. He is definitely one of the top fantasy QBs for 2009. His backup could be Riley Nelson, who started as a freshman at Utah State three seasons ago. Unlike Hall, Nelson is quite mobile and can add some wrinkles to the offense.

The only thing that may slow down Hall’s passing game is the presence of the big and brusing RB Harvey Unga, who rushed for over 1100 yards and 11 TDs in 2008. However, do not fret over Unga getting handoffs….for he is one of the top pass-catching RBs in the nation….snagging 42 catches and 4 receiving TDs. With stats like these, Unga is a top fantasy back…and in many fantasy leagues may be drafted ahead of Hall.

At FB-HB, look for Bryan Kariya to get the start, although he is not really a fantasy consideration.

The strength of BYU’s receiving corps this year may be its tight ends. TE Dennis Pitta is the Cougars leading returning receiver coming into 2009, posting nearly 1100 yards receiving and 6 TDs. Also seeing a lot of action last season, TE Andrew George, who caught 23 passes and scored 6 TDs. Even in non-TE-play leagues, Pitta will be taken early, and, in TE-must-play leagues, both Pitta and George will be gone early on draft day. Few schools throw to the TE as much as the Cougars do.

Although the loss of NCAA-leading WR Austin Collie, and, the loss of the steady Michael Reed, would drastically affect most programs….the losses may not hurt BYU as much as it would appear. The Cougars may have the next receiving star (and surprise fantasy star) in sophomore WR McKay Jacobsen, who has returned from his two-year church mission. As a true freshman in 2006, Jacobsen started a number of games and had over 500 yards receiving….almost similar production to that of Austin Collie in his frosh season (then went on a two-year mission). The rest of the WRs will be inexperienced, but should get some highly effective production from the likes of Stephen Covey (a converted QB), O’Neill Chambers, Luke Ashworth, and Mike Hague.

Defensively, the Cougars return most of its starters from 2008, including All-American candidate DE Jan Jorgensen. Considering this defense was quite inexperienced last season, holding opponents to a 22 point-per-game and 356 yards-per-game average was not too bad….and BYU’s defense is one to consider late in your draft (or a later pick-up in a free agent/suppplemental draft).

PK Mitch Payne may not be an elite kicker, but he is good enough to be a top fantasy kicker. Payne scored 84 points last season, and should better that in 2009.

WEAKNESSES

The offensive line will be breaking in a number of new starters in 2009, so this may slow down offensive production early in the season. However, the Cougars do have Hall’s blind spot covered, as sophomore LT Matt Reynolds was a Freshman All-American last season, allowing only one sack in 13 starts.

Although not a weakness…note that many of BYU’s underclassmen are older than underclassmen at most other schools. With many of its players taking the two-year church-required mission at age 19, the Cougar lower and upper-classmen have a level of maturity that you will not see at most schools…and the lack of playing time for two seasons is not that much of an impact. Also, the talent level in Provo is much better since the arrival of head coach Bronco Mendenhall a few years ago…and players like LT Reynolds and WR Jacobsen were highly-regarded prep players.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART (Starter in CAPS)

QB: MAX HALL, Riley Nelson, Brenden Gaskins

RB: HARVEY UNGA, J.J. DiLuigi

FB: BRYAN KARIYA, Malosi Te’o, Braden Brown

WR: McKAY JACOBSEN, STEPHEN COVEY, O’NEILL CHAMBERS, Luke Ashworth, Mike Hague, Tyler Kozlowski

TE: DENNIS PITTA, Andrew George, Braden Brown

PK: MITCH PAYNE, Riley Stephenson

SCHEDULE

Not an easy first three weeks, with a neutral field game in Arlington, Texas vs Oklahoma (the first-ever college game in the new Cowboys Stadium), an interesting road trip to Tulane, and a home game in Provo vs Florida State. Although intimidating for most schools, BYU has a large fan-base nationwide (largest among the non-BCS schools) and will bring large contingents to games vs Oklahoma and Tulane (there may be more Cougar fans than Green Wave fans in The Superdome for the Tulane game) TCU, Utah, and Air Force all come to LaVell Edwards Stadium this fall.

HOME GAMES in CAPS

09/05 Oklahoma (Arlington, TX)

09/12 @Tulane

09/19 FLORIDA STATE

09/26 COLORADO STATE

10/02 UTAH STATE (Fri.)

10/10 @Nevada-Las Vegas

10/17 @San Diego State

10/24 TCU

11/07 @Wyoming

11/14 @New Mexico

11/21 AIR FORCE

11/28 UTAH

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UTEP MINERS 2009 PREVIEW

Daniel Freer — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:39:27 +0000

If UTEP QB Trevor Vittatoe (photo, thanks College Fantasy Football Insider) was a quarterback in most other conferences, he would be known as “Most Valuable Player” or “Player of the Year”.

Unfortunately, being a QB in Conference USA…even while throwing for nearly 6400 yards with a 58-16 TD/INT ratio in your first two seasons…Vittatoe sometimes gets overlooked in a conference infested with top-producing QBs.

However, the 2009 season just may see Vittatoe get the recognition…both regionally and nationally…that he deserves. And, that recognition should begin before your 2009 fantasy draft.

STRENGTHS

Of course, it all starts with Vittatoe. After a slow start in the first three games of 2008, the Miner QB threw for 3274 yards and 33 TDs. Look for him to improve on those numbers, as the UTEP schedule is a little more friendly (definitely fantasy-friendly) at the beginning of the 2009 season…compared to last season. Even with the QB depth of CUSA and the Big XII, Vittatoe will be a good #1 QB on your fantasy team.

Nothing helps a top QB more than having a pair of bookend WRs who produce as well as any pair in the nation. The Miner breakout star of 2008, Kris Adams, led the Miners with 958 yards receiving and 14 TDs….averaging over 19 yards per catch. Paired with Adams is the Miner breakout star of 2007, Jeff Moturi, who led the team with 51 catches…for 655 yards and 9 TDs (Moturi had 13 TD grabs in 2007). The third WR, Tufick Shadrawy, added 20 receptions and 3 scores. Adams and Moturi are WRs you will be drafting…as their production should increase in 2009.

At TE, Jonny Moore should get the start, as the steady Jamar Hunt has departed. The Miners do throw to the TE, even with the talent at WR, so Moore will be a draft-worthy TE in those leagues requiring that position filled.

The offensive line will be one of the better ones in CUSA, and the left side, with LG Cameron Raschke and LT Mike Arguayo, should be all-conference at the end of the season…and will provide good protection for Vittatoe.

Although the Miners lose the big leg of PK Jose Martinez (who drilled a 64 yd FG vs UCF last season…probably this writer’s most memorable play seen in-person in 2008), they may have another big leg waiting in the wings. Redshirt-freshman Logan Barrett once hit a 72-yard FG in a Miners scrimmage. With this offense, Barrett is a PK you take on draft day.

And, we should not forget, Miners head coach Mike Price is one of the best coaches in the game. Although he is only 30-30 after five seasons at UTEP, it is an outstanding mark considering how difficult it is to bring top Texas high school talent to El Paso. Figure in his time at Washington State (two Rose Bowls in 14 seasons….when Wazzu went to one in the previous 65 seasons), and Price knows how to win at some of the toughest places to attract talent. Price always brings a wide-open offense to any team he coaches, and, his teams have been throwing the football long before it became cool to do so.

WEAKNESSES

The ground game has been virtually non-existent the past few seasons, even with top talent former Miner RBs like Marcus Thomas and Terrell Jackson (transfers from Arizona and Oregon, respectively) toting the rock. The top returning rusher from last season is backup QB James Thomas II, who ran for 351 yards and 3 TDs when filling in for Vittatoe. RBs Daniel Palmer (132, 0 TD in 2008) looks to be the #1 RB for the Miners this season, ahead of Donald Buckram (348, 2 TDs) and Vernon Frazier (176, 1 TD)…Palmer may be getting the nod because he is the bigger of the three. Still, look for all three to get plenty of action…which means the Miner RBs are not going to have much fantasy impact.

UTEPs defense has been a problem the past couple of seasons, finishing near the bottom nationally in NCAA total defense. There should be some improvement in 2009 (especially if talented S Braxton Amy should return from injury), but not enough to consider for fantasy purposes. However, a team with a weak defense does have one positive…it will require the offense to win games…and increase the value of players like Vittatoe, Adams, and Moturi.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART (Starter in ALL CAPS)

QB: TREVOR VITTATOE, Tim Curry, James Thomas II

RB: DANIEL PALMER, Donald Buckram, Vernon Frazier

WR: KRIS ADAMS, JEFF MOTURI, TUFICK SHADRAWY, Evan Davis, Donovan Kemp, Darrin Moore, Russell Carr

TE: JONNY MOORE, Elijah Goldtrap

PK: LOGAN BARRETT, Mike Scott

SCHEDULE

At first glance, three of the Miners first four games look to be tough (MAC champ Buffalo, Kansas, Texas), but, two of those will be at home….and, only Texas will have the defense to slow down Vittatoe and Company. Also, the Miners do not face Southern Miss or East Carolina from CUSA East…and get both Houston and Tulsa at home. This schedule not only will benefit the Miners offense…it should help them secure a bowl berth and/or a conference championship at the end of the season.

HOME GAMES in CAPS

09/05 BUFFALO

09/12 KANSAS

09/19 @New Mexico State

09/26 @Texas

10/03 HOUSTON

10/10 @Memphis

10/21 TULSA (Wed.)

10/31 UAB

11/07 @Tulane

11/14 @SMU

11/21 @Rice

11/28 MARSHALL

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Catching up on SEC Wide Receivers

Chris Pendley — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:26:03 +0000

While the SEC last year had all-college-world WR Percy Harvin, this year’s crop isn’t quite as excellent Sure, we’ve all read the requisite 17,000 words on Julio Jones (and the slightly disturbing articles talking about the JPW-Jones connection; thank whatever deity you’d like that we don’t have to deal with that this year) but there’s more to the conference than just him. Still, the one thing holding this conference back from having truly elite fantasy WRs is awkward allocation of talent; the best WRs have to deal with middling QBs (or, in a couple of cases, another high-quality WR sharing time).

Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss Rebels (courtesy of ISM.com)

1: Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss

Look, I really wanted to rank Julio Jones at 1… but I kept coming back to how the Rebels used McCluster last year. The kid was the leading rusher(!) for the Rebels last year, and while Shay Hodge ended up with more receiving yards, at the end of the day McCluster is the leading rushing/receiving combo returning this year. The odd thing is, he got more involved with the rushing game as the season wore on. Since he’s established as a double threat, the yardage benefit (likely 1,000-plus, and the only guy from the SEC who may get there) and the resultant TDs can only mean good things for McCluster owners.

2: Brandon LaFell, LSU

Even with the flaming pile of crap that was Jarrett Lee last year, LaFell still ended up with over 900 yards and 8 TDs. He’s used to being WR1 in LSU’s offense as well, which means he has quality predictive value. Jordan Jefferson can’t possibly be any worse than Lee was last year, meaning LaFell could make a run at 1,000 yards / 10 TDs.

3: AJ Green, Georgia

He’s like Julio Jones, only his situation is a little worse. He also won’t get Football Jesus Mohammed Massaquoi siphoning coverages away from him, meaning- it’s time to step up as WR1, kid. He hasn’t had to deal with that at a college level yet, but should fare a bit better than Jones in TDs but get dinged mildly on yardage. The TDs win out here.

4: Julio Jones, Alabama

Here’s the guy everyone expected, finally. Yes, Jones is an otherworldly talent, and yes, he’ll be the primary receiver, and yes, he did get 924 yards as a freshman; but this Tide team is not built on throwing the ball (except to him). 4 TDs aren’t great from a receiver, and that was with butt-buddy John Parker Wilson caressing passes to him. I’m not sure Greg McElroy can do the same, but Jones is obviously talented enough to get near those numbers at least. Normally I’m not big on TDs as predictive from year-to-year, but I don’t see schemes changing significantly this time around.

5: Shay Hodge, Ole Miss

Hodge doesn’t have the dual-threat capabilities that McCluster does, but what he does have are WR1 yards with one heck of an offense. You’ll take that, won’t you? He won’t push much past 850 / 9 TDs, but that’s nothing to sneeze at with SEC WRs.

6: Joe Adams, Arkansas

Adams is stepping into a nice situation; as a true frosh last year he was the #2 WR in yardage (DJ WIlliams pretty much wrecked everyone), but with a year to learn Petrino’s system and Ryan Mallett stepping in as WR I, expect Petrino to open up the passing game quite a bit. Adams stands to be the main guy to benefit; admittedly he’s a draft based on potential, but 800 / 8 TDs isn’t bad potential as a true sophomore.

7: Gerald Jones, Tennessee

This ranking is contingent on Jones finally getting used like everyone thought he was going to be when he first came in - as a WR/RB/QB hybrid guy who can be involved in 10-15 snaps a game. If he can get that, 1,000+ all-purpose and 5-9+ TDs is within range. The reason why he’s down here is the level of confidence I have that will happen; meaning, not a whole lot. But he’s still WR1 and about 700 / 6 TDs is the median for his production.

8: Deonte Thompson, Florida

Someone has to catch all the TDs The Real Football Jesus is going to throw; Thompson is as good a bet as anyone. The downside is that there are approximately 1,500 guys who could also catch 15 TDs from Tebow. Unlike all those other guys, Thompson has the most returning yards for a WR.

9: Randall Cobb, Kentucky

Slash back extraordinaire, Cobb won’t excel in any one role but should be adequate enough to net some mildly serious yardage as a primary option for Kentucky. He’s going to have issues since Kentucky’s offense is god-awful and everyone knows he’s their main playmaker, but that shouldn’t stop him from 600+ and 6-8 TDs-ish.

It feels like a cop-out to start randomly listing guys, but here are some people to pay attention to at least. I wouldn’t draft them unless there are some deep leagues out there, but wire pickups are feasible depending on how things shake out.

Riley Cooper, Florida - Another guy who could end up with serious TD numbers, but….

David Nelson, Florida - …there are a few of these guys. While Nelson had the most TDs last year….

Carl Moore, Florida - …Moore can’t fail as badly when it comes to learning the offense this year. See what I mean about there being 12 guys here? (And I haven’t even mentioned Brandon James yet.)

Michael Moore, Georgia - Quality WR, but WR2 in an offense that could easily be average passing means he’s not worth paying too much attention to.

Moe Brown, South Carolina - WR1 in South Carolina’s offense, so if they turn into a flinging-it Spurrier team like the old Florida teams of yore, he’s super-valuable. In reality, he’s probably 500 yards-ish material.

Tim Hawthorne, Auburn - Predicting who’ll break out here is an exercise in futility, but at least he’ll get more chances with Malzahn than he did with Franklin …right?

Brandon McRae, Mississippi State - Quality WR stuck with a popgun QB. This isn’t going to be any fun.

Jarius Wright, Arkansas - He’s pretty much on here because he’s mildly talented and in Year 2 of Petrino’s schemes; there are worse fates.

Reuben Randle, LSU - Dynasty alert (big ol’ WR recruit who will probably see significant PT as a freshman), don’t expect much this year, though.

Really, once you get past this point you might as well play pin-the-tail-on-the-weekly-breakout. And if you’re the kind of completist who needs to know who Vandy’s WR1 is: John Cole. May you never need to know his name.

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BOISE STATE BRONCOS 2009 PREVIEW

Daniel Freer — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:33:00 +0000

They’re back!!!

Another year, another season for the Boise State Broncos to wreak havoc on the Western Athletic Conference, and the flawed BCS Bowl Syndicate.

As usual, the Broncos, under head coach Chris Petersen, have another deep and talented team, led by sophomore QB Kellen Moore (photo, thanks CFN Scout) and a balanced attack that will fill up your fantasy depth charts…and pound opponents of all shapes and sizes into the legendary blue turf of Bronco Stadium.

As Yogi Berra once said: “It’s deja vu all over again“.

Yogi must have retired in Boise…

STRENGTHS

Numerous. Start with QB Moore, who in his first season as a starter threw for nearly 3500 yards and 25 TDs…while hitting close to 70% of his passes. His top target should be WR Austin Pettis, who had 567 yards receiving and 9 TDs. Plus, the return of WR Titus Young from suspension will help alleviate the loss of Jeremy Childs, since Young has the speed to spread defenses. Another WR, Tyler Shoemaker, should step up in 2009…after scoring 2 TDs on 7 catches in limited action as a freshman last season.

For those leagues who require TEs to start, Kyle Efaw is a consideration, as he averaged over 15 yards per catch on his 17 catches last year as a frosh.

Although BSU loses an icon at RB in Ian Johnson, the Bronco backfield may experience little, if any, dropoff in 2009. Juniors Jeremy Avery (614 yards, 4 TDs) and D.J. Harper (265, 4 TDs) have already seen a lot of action in their first two seasons. At FB, Richie Brockel is more of a blocker but will catch passes out of the backfield (2 TDs in 2008).

The Broncos OL was one of the youngest in the nation last season…at times starting many freshmen…and played quite well (only allowed 13 sacks in 2008). Now, those freshmen are a year older, and a year more experienced. In fact, on the projected three-deep OL, there is not a single senior.

On defense, look for the usual swarming, turnover-creating, slobber-knocking defense that at times, might have forced the United Nations to convene war-crimes trials on the Broncos (especially those last two meetings vs. New Mexico State). BSU has two legitimate All-American candidates on defense in DE Ryan Winterswyk and CB Kyle Wilson. Even with potential high-scoring shootouts on the Broncos schedule, their defense is worth drafting because of their propensity to get a lot of sacks, turnovers, and defensive scores.

CB Wilson also adds another threat on special teams, as he is arguably the best punt returner in the nation, taking 3 for TDs last season. RBs Avery and Doug Martin are steady kick0ff returners, and PK Kyle Brotzman is one of the top kickers in the nation, scoring 101 points last season. Noted college football prognosticator Phil Steele ranks Boise State’s special teams #1 nationally (of all 120 FBS schools) coming into 2009.

WEAKNESSES

Well…if we have to be picky….the lack of upper-classmen on both sides of the ball could be an issue in some of their tougher games…but the Broncos routinely go deep into their roster every game they play, so many of the sophomores and juniors now starting already have a lot of real-time game experience. By the way, let us not forget BSU went 12-1 last season with these youngsters and the “1″ in the loss column was a 1-point loss to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

For the fantasy coach/GM…the Broncos depth at the skill positions brings down their individual fantasy potential…but BSU players are great for late-round picks used for roster depth. Of course, QB Moore will be a good fantasy QB, and WR Pettis, RB Avery are steady performers who will get more plays directed to them this season. However, the Broncos do distribute the ball around to many players, which limits individual’s production. It definitely will not be the defenses the Broncos will face in 2009 limiting fantasy production.

PROJECTED SKILL-POSITION DEPTH CHART (Starter in CAPS)

QB: KELLEN MOORE, Michael Coughlin, Drew Hawkins

RB: JEREMY AVERY, D.J. Harper, Doug Martin

FB: RICHIE BROCKEL, Dan Paul

WR: AUSTIN PETTIS, TITUS YOUNG, TYLER SHOEMAKER, Mitch Burroughs, Chris Potter, Michael Choate

TE: KYLE EFAW, Tommy Gallarda

PK: KYLE BROTZMAN, Jimmy Pavel

SCHEDULE

Boise State will see some challenges on the field, but few teams who will pose a big defensive threat. Note that the Broncos will play 13 regular-season games in 2009, and 6 of those will be non-Saturday games (get your Bronco players in early).

HOME GAMES in CAPS

09/03 OREGON

09/12 MIAMI, OHIO

09/18 @Fresno State

09/26 @Bowling Green

10/03 UC DAVIS

10/14 @Tulsa

10/24 @Hawaii

10/31 SAN JOSE STATE

11/06 @Louisiana Tech

11/14 IDAHO

11/20 @Utah State

11/27 NEVADA

12/05 NEW MEXICO STATE

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Running Through the SEC Runningbacks

Chris Pendley — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 02:50:40 +0000

When it comes to RBs, the SEC has been a bit weird the last few years. Most college teams fall into one of two RB camps: primary back or stable of equal backs, which is often code for “we have no talent in our backfield, so we’re trotting these three guys out here and just hoping one of them gets hot.” (What little is left loosely translates as “we have no running game” or “Texas Tech.) The SEC is a weird hybrid of these two camps; virtually all the teams in the SEC employ some kind of stable in the backfield save one or two, but those players are often talented enough to start elsewhere. The net result is a deep overall RB corps that doesn’t always translate well to fantasy. The talent is certainly there, but the opportunity may not be.

1: Charles Scott, LSU

Charles Scott, LSU (pictured above, thanks to ISM.com)

It feels odd to rank any RB from LSU as the best overall in the conference since LSU has been one of the biggest proponents of the mass RB strategy - or at least it seems that way. In reality, the last two years have been primary-back years, and Scott benefited last year to the tune of 1,174 yards and 18(!) TDs. Sure, he had no involvement in the passing game, but who cares? If the other guys in the backfield couldn’t take carrier from him and he’s outrushing the #2 LSU rusher to the tune of 3:1, I think he’ll be all right to take early. Also nice: Scott not only had the most yards by far, he also had the most ypc (5.41) of anyone with more than 25 carries, and nearly of anyone with more than 15 carries (Trindon Holliday just beat him). The TDs may not be there as much as they were last year, but he should be close.

2: Michael Smith, Arkansas

Smith is the clear starter at Arkansas and racked up about 1,075 yards and 8 TDs (chipping in another 300 receiving yards and 2 TDs). Unlike Scott, Smith has some competition from the locals, but the locals are also all unproven at Arkansas (and he lapped the competition and a half last year), so there’s no reason to think it’ll be any different this year for Smith. Expect upwards of 1,300 multipurpose yards and in the neighborhood of 12 TDs. One caveat, though; he’s not the beefiest guy, so he’s more likely to break down than the guys around him on this list.

3: Mark Ingram, Alabama

He’ll definitely be Back A in the Tide’s schemes; what we don’t know is how he’ll deal with it. Ingram certainly has the talent to push the 1,000 yard barrier with 10 TDs; what separates him from the top two is that he hasn’t done that yet. He has more risk than anyone around him, but it’s not inconceivable that he will turn up as the best fantasy RB when it’s all said and done. If for some reason he’s still floating around in dynasty leagues, he jumps to the top of this list, as everyone around him on this list is a senior.

4a: Ben Tate, Auburn

Well, Brad Lester’s finally gone, meaning Tate should get the ball all to himself - right? Well, Mario Fannin is there acting like he’s going to steal carries (and Lord only knows how much Kodi Burns will suck useless plays that could’ve gone to Tate), but that hasn’t been the case. Tate’s biggest problem last year (664, 3 TDs) was the 12 in the box since Auburn’s passing attack resembled North Korea’s ballistic missile tests. If Auburn’s passing attack can consistently - or even semi-consistently - get that 8th guy out of the box, Tate could end up around 950 / 7 TDs which was similar to his 2007 season. Otherwise, last year is the worst he’ll do.

4b: Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State

Dixon’s a lot like Tate, except a little less exciting - and amazingly, Dixon has an even more ineffective passing game to deal with. As such, Dixon’s margin for error is a bit smaller, but he’ll likely be in the 800-900 / 5-7 TD range.

5: Caleb King, Georgia

He didn’t have a great ypc last year (4.0), but that was in part due to the offensive line. Georgia’s line should be healthy and deep this year, meaning if King can get around 4.5 ypc and 20-25 carries a game, he’ll be in line for a quality season - likely one similar to what Mark Ingram could put up. What separates King from the others above him is not only has King not done anything like that in college before, we don’t know if the offensive line will stay healthy enough for King to succeed - and there’s enough talent behind King that they could easily suck carries if King struggles early.

6: Chris Rainey, Florida / Jeffrey Demps, Florida

Really, these guys are the same guy. Last year, Rainey did a bit better in the raw yardage department (652 to 605) but Demps beat him back on TDs (7 to 4). At that level, and with the Florida offense, predicting TDs is somewhat of a crapshoot, but barring injury these guys will put up similar (if not improved) numbers than what they had last season. They’ll be challenged by not having a gamebreaker like Harvin in the backfield. On the other hand, they both averaged 7.8 ypc (yes, you read that right), so it won’t be too insurmountable. They get dinged here because …well, they’re two guys. Unpredictability is not your friend.

7: Bryce Brown, Tennessee

Are you a believer? If you are, you’ll like Brown, whose recruitment was a big deal not only because of the circus surrounding his handler, but because Brown is really freakin’ good. Lennon Creer was his biggest threat to consistent PT - Montario Hardesty seems destined to play RB #2, which is a bit of a shame - which means Brown should be in good shape to take over the primary back duties. We don’t know how Lane Kiffin will run his offense (other than “by secondary violation”), but there’s at best a quasi-stable of backs in Tennessee, of which Brown is the best horse. While I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up around 800 / 8 TDs, there’s a lot of volatility here; not only is there no passing game to speak of (8 man fronts hello!) but expecting 800 / 8 out of a true freshman is a bit …risky. He’s obviously a big, big deal in dynasty format. Do what you have to in order to get him there.

8: Cordera Eason, Ole Miss

Eason was a bit surprising last year as the leading rusher on the team for a RB (Dexter McCluster counts as a WR here) since Enrique Davis got all the hype. Well, Davis fell the way of so many hyped freshmen and struggled, leaving Eason to get around 625 with 3 TDs (chipping in a couple of multipurpose TDs as a receiver). Eason has a bit of danger behind him - if you believe in Enrique, you’ve already moved on - but Eason has the track record and should do better than 5 TDs overall.

9: Emmanuel Moody, Florida

He has the raw talent to excel. However, what he doesn’t have is a track record at Florida and he has to contend with the raging speedsters that are the Rainey / Demps combo. I suspect Moody will pick up some close-in TDs (the ones that Tebow doesn’t steal) that Rainey and Demps won’t end up with, but because of the massive quantity of people in the Florida backfield, anything above 55 / 6 TDs is gravy to me.

Things get even more confusing after this. Here are some guys worth targeting in deeper drafts:

10: Montario Hardesty, Tennessee

Solid pick, moderate upside if Brown gets injured and/or struggles.

11: Terry Grant, Alabama

Top talent, but in a rough situation since playing behind Mark Ingram. He will also have to deal with Roy Upchurch and Trent Richardson, who’s also a top talent. Unlike the others, Grant has a track record, but this is shaping up like another ball-control Tide team.

12: Jarvis Giles, South Carolina

The South Carolina tailback situation is a mess, but Giles is the best talent there, so why not? He’ll likely split some carries with Brian Maddox. Not a guy I’d look at drafting anywhere except deep dynasty, and in shallower dynasty leagues Giles is worth watching to see if he’s worth going after later in the season.

13: Jared Hawkins, Vanderbilt

Completely unassuming pick, completely unexciting - but he’s the feature back at Vandy if you’re into those kinds of things.

14: Derrick Locke, Kentucky

He’s fast. That’s about it. He isn’t durable enough to serve as a feature back though, meaning he’s a feast / famine type.

15: De’Anthony Curtis, Arkansas

He’s Michael Smith’s injury replacement. He’s talented in his own right, too - worth looking at in dynasty.

16: Richard Samuel, Georgia

Don’t look at last year’s UGA RB distribution; this’ll be a more even distribution. Samuel’s the guy you want to remember if Caleb King goes down.

Here are the other random guys, in no particular order:

Broderick Green - Arkansas (can he get eligible?)

Dennis Johnson - Arkansas

Mario Fannin - Auburn (more hype than substance)

Robert Elliot - Mississippi State (dynasty pick, perhaps)

Keiland Williams - LSU

Richard Murphy - LSU

Roy Upchurch - Alabama

Trent Richardson - Alabama (dynasty alert!)

Enrique Davis - Ole Miss (he flies up this list if he’s figured out how to block)

Alfonso Smith - Kentucky

David Oku - Tennessee (may redshirt, dynasty alert)

Brian Maddox - South Carolina

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FSU Seminoles 2009 Team Preview

Jeremy Shory — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 23:00:35 +0000

2008 overall record: 9-4

2008 conference record: 5-3, Atlantic Division co-champions

Returning starters Offense: 8, Defense: 5, Punter/Kicker: 0

Top returns: OG Rodney Hudson, C Ryan McMahon, QB Christian Ponder, DT Budd Thacker, LB Dekoda Watson, TB Jermaine Thomas, WR Bert Reed.

Key losses: DE Everette Brown, LB Derek Nicholson, RV Myron Rolle, CB Tony Carter, P/PK Graham Gano, WR Greg Carr, RB Antone Smith, WR Preston Parker

Fall Fantasy Question

Defensive Secondary. There’s going to be an infusion of freshmen this summer who could challenge for playing time. Greg Reid from Georgia is a big-time player. The staff is also expecting more from Terrance Parks, who was banged up this spring and didn’t get a chance to compete much at rover/safety. Either way, there is a complete lack of experience in this secondary which will look to Patrick Robinson for leadership.

Team Breakdown

Ponder throw incomplete pass to some receiver likely now in jail.

Quarterback -The Seminoles might have finally found the quarterback they’ve been looking for since Chris Weinke left earlier this decade. Christian Ponder showed plenty of potential last season, leading Florida State to nine wins last season. He threw for over 2,000 yards, and as a second-year starter should improve quite a bit.
Ponder also has good mobility as he ran for 423 yards last year. After Ponder is a five-star redshirt freshman E.J. Manuel. Manuel broke his finger on the first day of spring practice, and didn’t get to play during the spring, so he has yet to show what he has. 2008 Stats: Ponder - 177 for 318, 2,006 yards, 14 TDs, 13 INT, 119 rushes for 423 yards, 4 TDs.

ACC Rank - 4

Running Back - The Seminoles will have a new starter at running back that will have to replace Antone Smith’s and team-leading 792 yards and 15 touchdowns. The most likely candidates are sophomores Jermaine Thomas, who rushed for 482 yards last year, and Ty Jones. Thomas in particular is a very good receiver too. Both had great spring games as each broke the 100 yard marker and each are probably the most likely duo out of any backs in the ACC to have the breakouts for long gains. Tavares Pressley will be the power back and should get the goal line touches. 2008 Stats: Thomas - 69 rushes for 482 yards, 3 TDs, 6 receptions for 48 yards.

ACC Rank - 7

Wide Receiver - The Seminoles don’t have a huge amount of experience returning for the 2009 season, but there is talent. Gone are last years’ top two receivers Preston Parker, due to legal reasons, and Greg Carr, due to graduation. The third leading receiver Taiwan Easterling ruptured his achilles tendon during the off-season, but FSU coaches are hopeful he will be available by the time the season starts. Bert Reed caught 23 passes last season, and without Easterling is the No. 1 receiver. Richard Goodman, who caught 20 passes in 2007, returns after missing 2008. Watch for non-scholarship Louis Givens as well in 2009 as there is a ton of hype surrounding him. 2008 Stats: Easterling - 30 for 322 yards, 1 TD. Reed - 23 for 295 yards, 3 TDs. Givens - 4 for 44 yards.

ACC Rank - 6

Tight End - Caz Piurowski provides some pass-catching ability at TE. Piurowski caught eight passes and had one touchdown last year. Jimbo Fisher has said repeatedly that he wants to get his tight ends involved in the passing game this year now that he knows he can trust the offensive line to hold strong. Look for good red zone looks for Piurowski. 2008 Stats: Piurowski - 8 for 83 yards, 1 TD.

ACC Rank - 5

Defense - Last year, Mickey Andrews’ defense was very good as there was a wealth of senior leadership on the team. This year, they will have to find a way to cope with the loss of safety/rover Myron Rolle, cornerback Tony Carter, and star defensive end Everett Brown. However, the Seminoles have a ton of young talent, and I’d look for the D to continue to impress as Florida State played the most underclassman of any team in the nation last year in anticipation for this year. The front seven should be just as stout as last year and most likely one of the best in the ACC as they welcome back linebacker Dekoda Watson, defensive tackle Bud Thacker, and five star recruit, Jacobi McDaniel.

ACC Rank - 6

Kicker/Special Teams - Long gone are Graham Gano and his Lou Groza award winning leg. His replacement has some unbelievable shoes to fill as Gano had a 97% field goal accuracy with 5 of 7 beyond 50 yards! Good thing is that the Seminoles lured the #1 kicking recruit from last year’s class in Dustin Hopkins. It has yet to be seen how well he’ll be able to handle the pressure of 100,000 plus eyes on you. Fall camp will help determine his ability as he will have a lot of attempts to score. Returners will probably be Jamie Robinson and Patrick Robinson. Both have quick feet and have the potential to break it loose. 2008 Stats: None for any returning players.

ACC Rank - 10

2009 Schedule

Sept. 7 Miami
Sept. 12 Jacksonville State
Sept. 19 at BYU
Sept. 26 South Florida
Oct. 3 at Boston College
Oct. 10 Georgia Tech
Oct. 17 BYE
Oct. 22 at North Carolina
Oct. 31 NC State
Nov. 7 at Clemson
Nov. 14 at Wake Forest
Nov. 21 Maryland
Nov. 28 at Florida

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Duke Blue Devils 2009

Jeremy Shory — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 23:00:31 +0000

2008 overall record: 4-8

2008 conference record: 1-7

Returning starters Offense: 5, Defense: 5, Kicker/Punter: 2

Top returns: QB Thaddeus Lewis, WR Johnny Williams, RB Jay Hollingsworth, RB Re’Quan Boyette, OG Kyle Hill, C Bryan Morgan, CB Leon Wright, LB Vincent Rey, DT Vince Oghobaase

Key losses: RB Clifford Harris, WR Eron Riley, OT Cameron Goldberg, LB Michael Tauiliili, FS Adrian Aye-Darko.

Fall Fantasy Question

The Offensive Line: The offensive line struggled this spring to replace three starters. There was minimal improvement, but nothing can compensate for game day experience. Kyle Hill moved from left guard to left tackle, so the unit has a whole new look. The one player back in his original position is center Bryan Morgan.

Team Breakdown

Lewis doing his best Brett Favre impersonation. (ICONSMI)

Quarterback – Quarterback Thaddeus Lewis would be a household name if he played at any other school. Lewis has experience as he’s started 34 games. Last season Lewis threw for 2,171 yards 15 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He ranked fifth in the ACC in quarterback efficiency. The Blue Devil’s roster offers more than Lewis, though. Sean Renfree is a four-star quarterback out of Arizona, signed in 2008, who will be groomed to be the starter in 2010. 2008 Stats: Lewis - 224 for 361, 2,171 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INT, 69 rushes for 96 yards, 2 TDs.

ACC Rank – 5

Running Back – The return of Re’quan Boyette will have the most impact on this team offensively. Boyette was Duke’s leading rusher in the 2006 and 2007 seasons, but missed all of 2008 with a knee injury. Last year’s returning leading rusher, Jay Hollingsworth, led the Blue Devils with almost 400 rushing yards. Tony Jackson also saw significant time last year, while gaining 259 yards, and showing good speed in his limited opportunities. 2008 Stats: Hollingsworth – 108 rushes for 399 yards, 1 TD, 25 receptions for 188 yards, 2 TDs. 2007 Stats: Boyette – 104 rushes for 432, 2 TDs, 14 receptions for 77 yards.

ACC Rank – 11

Wide Receiver – Johnny Williams, the second leading receiver for the Blue Devils is back. He had 30 receptions for 327 yards last season, and will be Duke’s feature receiver this season no that Eron Riley is gone. 5-9 Donovan Varner had 21 catches, and will be a bigger part of the offense. 6-3 Austin Kelly adds height to the group. 2008 Stats: Williams – 30 for 327 yards. Varner – 21 for 164 yards, 1 TD. Kelly – 13 for 142 yards.

ACC Rank – 9

Tight End – TE Brett Huffman is the solid starter for this group. He had a decent season as a sophomore last year and should look to be on the receiving end of a few more touchdowns this year. 2008 Stats: Huffman – 14 for 171 yards, 1 TD.

ACC Rank – 5

Defense – Much like Virginia, so much has been made about David Cutcliffe and what he is doing to this offense that not much has been mentioned about the defense. The biggest departure out of the six that graduated on this side of the ball is linebacker Michael Tauiliili who was drafted late in the NFL draft this past April. He was vocal leader and stepped up when needed. Duke will really need for some leadership to come from guys like defensive tackle Vince Oghobaase and linebacker Vincent Rey for this team to stay solid and give Duke a legitimate chance at a bowl game this year.

ACC Rank – 10

Kicker/Special Teams – Duke has a solid, young kicker that will be able to double up as punter in the 2009 season in Nick Maggio. He had a 78% field goal accuracy and 100% extra point accuracy. Only issue here is that the opportunities were not as frequent as it was for other teams in 2008. Return duty will be determined during fall camp. 2008 Stats: Maggio – 28 for 28 extra points, 11 of 14 field goals, longest field goal was 46 yards.

ACC Rank – 9

2009 Schedule

Sept. 5 Richmond
Sept. 12 at Army
Sept. 19 at Kansas
Sept. 26 North Carolina Central
Oct. 3 Virginia Tech
Oct. 10 at North Carolina State
Oct. 17 BYE
Oct. 24 Maryland
Oct. 31 at Virginia
Nov. 7 at North Carolina
Nov. 14 Georgia Tech
Nov. 21 at Miami (FL)
Nov. 28 Wake Forest

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