You have no doubt seen this analogy heading in to the 2012 BCS Title Game between the LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide but it has two flaws – 1) the original game was not entertaining nor played at a high level, and 2) there is always the chance we will get a “Wrath of Khan” or a “Dark Knight” followup.

Defense. Honey Badger. Trent Richardson. The verbal stylings of Les Miles. Here is the SportsCentral Preview:

My take on the matchup after the jump.

Smart guys in the desert say: Alabama 21-19 (Alabama -2, Total 40)

But there may be no information advantage here – EVERYONE in the country knows about these two teams and all the history of this SEC matchup shows 50-50 results against the spread. 65% of the “votes” are for LSU, but that is not significant enough bullishness to go contrarian against the crowd (want to see 80%+ on one side to justify that).

To me it is significant that LSU is 10-3 ATS (9-0 in SEC) in their 13-0 2011 campaign – we all know they are good but they consistently exceeded expectations.

Also, remember that the Tide were favored in the first match on November 5th “Game of the Century” by 5.5 points but lost in a slugfest and a game marred by missed field goals on both sides.

My pick: LSU 17-13

When there is little in the data to go on, you are left to rely on the gut. My gut says that Les Miles continues to be the coach from whom to expect the unexpected. Miles eats grass like Maximus samples the dirt of the battlefield. Fake field goals. Shuttling quarterbacks. The Hat.

After suspending his starting QB for four games, Jordan Jefferson and his option running was a big part of the November gameplan. I still maintain that Jarrett Lee is the best quarterback on the field Monday, so his more balanced passing package should be successful.

Nick Saban has no time for gut – his style is like Moneyball in that it is designed to be very steady and effective. Play vicious defense, control the clock, win football. If this game were played ten times (I know, it feels like it) I would take Alabama to win a majority.

But the BCS National Championship is one game. One game with the two best defenses in the country. Unless Trent Richardson puts Alabama on his back and just carries the offense, I do not see many big play opportunities against LSU. I think LSU possesses more talent at skill positions and Les Miles will dig deep into his creative mind to find one or two big plays needed.

Look for LSU and the upset again.

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Clemson tried to do it. They tried to have another epic meltdown late in the season just like they do every year. In fact, if they would have lost to Wake Forest, like I think they should have (they got lucky with some typically shoddy ACC officiating), they would not have made it to the ACC title game, and thus would not be in a BCS bowl. In fact, we probably would have seen the end of Dabo Swinney. But somehow, after back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, the Tigers managed to come out swinging against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game and cruised to an easy victory right on into the Orange Bowl.

The Mountaineers needed a ton of help to get into the Orange Bowl. At the end of the regular season, there was a three-way tie for first place in the Big East, which came down to the final rankings in the polls being the determining factor. There was a lot of strangeness leading up to the beginning of the season for West Virginia; Dana Holgerson was handed the team after a series of lies were spread by then HC Bill Stewart about Holgerson as an attempt to save his job from the newly-appointed head coach-in-waiting. There was a quick change in philosophies for the team and a few quick hires which really put the team behind the 8 ball. Either way, they managed to put together a decent package for the season and climb their way high enough in the rankings to play in a BCS bowl.

Tigers QB Tajh Boyd really flourished under new OC Chad Morris’ up-pace, pass-happy system. It didn’t hurt that he had a supreme WR tandem in freshman All-American Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins will most likely miss the game after suffering a concussion in a car accident this weekend. RB Andre Ellington eclipsed 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns this year and will look to use this game as a way to boost his draft stock as he will most likely jump for the NFL draft a year early.

West Virginia QB Geno Smith had a good year in Holgerson’s passing offense as well, throwing for almost 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. Just like in any Holgerson offense, the ball gets spread around to all of the WR way too much to consider any one in particular to be a break-out candidate, but Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austinboth had over 1,000 yards receiving and should really give this poor Clemson secondary some fits.

This will be a high scoring game and should have a ton of yards. I would not be surprised to see nearly 1,000 combined yards in this one. It’ll come down to who has the better defense and to be honest, both are below average with the edge slightly going to the Clemson Tigers.

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What type of team is best suited to stop a running QB? I’d say a team that has arguably the best running QB in the entire NCAA; Michigan. Virginia Tech finally figured out that they could use their big 260 lb QB as a rusher by mid-season which got the Hokie’s stagnant offense clicking. But Michigan experienced a resurgence toward national relevance under new HC Brady Hoke, and they will know how to handle a QB with wheels.

Tech will look to use their rushing attack and solid defense to control the clock. Look for QB Logan Thomas and RB David Wilson to run close to 40 plays on the ground. The Hokies has a pair of stud WRs in Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin that struggled to live up to much this season, and a national stage could be just what they need for a breakout game.  Wolverine QB Denard Robinson was asked to stay in the pocket more and learn to pass first. The offense struggled because of it. But once the coaches opened up the playbook a little and allowed Robinson to just make some plays, the offense began to really take off. The emergence of sophomore RB Fitzgerald Toussaintand WR Junior Hemmingway kept opposing defenses honest enough for Robinson to rush for over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns.

This is going to be a little more defensive of a game as I would have hoped. Honestly, both teams have solid defenses and when you don’t play for a month, it tends to favor the defensive side of the ball more than the offense. This will be a relatively close game for most of the time so it should be a good one to watch.

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Grasp this.  Oregon and Wisconsin are two of 12 teams since 1996 to score at least 80 touchdowns in a season.  In a season!  Now Oregon has done it twice along with Oklahoma.  Take your seat folks, please fasten your safety belts as this one could be a fast paced game that gives you a thrill ride like you have not seen in years.  The Badgers average 44.6 points per game.  The Ducks average 46.2.  The Badgers give up an average of 17 points per game while the Ducks yield 23.6.  Both teams are loaded and both teams have great offenses.  Both these teams had visions of playing for the bigger prize this season but the Rose Bowl is still a great place for these teams.  It is a game that should delight football fans everywhere.  The Badger offense has been the best in the Big Ten all year.  They finished the season ranked first in rushing (237.4), fourth in passing (229.5) and first in scoring (44.6) in the Big Ten.  They won the Big Ten Leaders division and the Big Ten championship game.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has been a huge gain for the Badger offense this year.  He has thrown for 2879 yards and 31 touchdowns while also rushing for 320 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The running game is led by Montee Ball.  Ball has rushed for 1759 yards and 32 touchdowns this year.  When he isn’t ripping defenses apart they bring in James White who has 683 yards and 6 touchdowns this year.  Nick Toon leads receivers with 822 yards and 9 touchdowns but Jared Abbrederis has emerged as another receiving threat for the Badgers this year with 814 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Yes, they have the weapons.

The Ducks are no slouch.  Oregon managed to finish first in the Pac 12 North and win the Pac 12 title this year.  The Ducks ranked first in rushing offense (295.7), tenth in passing (219.5) and first in scoring (46.2).  They do like to run the ball at you a lot but they have had plenty of success in the air as well.  Quarterback Darron Thomas has thrown for 2493 yards and 30 touchdowns this year.  The Ducks have a tandem of backs to give opposing defenses problems too.  The leading running back is LaMichael James who has rushed for 1646 yards and 17 touchdowns this year.  When he needs a break they bring in Kenjon Barner who managed to run for 909 yards and 11 touchdowns this year.  The receiving threats are De’Anthony Thomas who has 440 yards and 5 touchdowns and Lavasier Tuinei who posted 441 yards and 8 touchdowns.  As you can see, the Ducks have weapons too.

The Badger defense was one of the best in the Big Ten.  Sadly there are not many teams in the Big Ten that run the ball like Oregon.  This will be a challenge for the Badgers.  Their strength is in their pass defense.  They are not a great rush defense team and that will be a problem.  Wisconsin finished the year ranked third in the Big Ten in total defense with 293.0 yards per game.  Their rushing defense yields an average of 138.0 yards per game.  The defense did finish the year ranked second in interceptions in the Big Ten.  The defense is led by Mike Taylor and Chris Borland.  They will be called upon to stop the Ducks running game.

The Oregon defense is not a particularly strong unit at stopping either the pass or run.  The Ducks rushing defense yields 137.5 yards per game which is good enough to be ranked fifth in the Pac 12.  The passing defense yields 243.5 yards per game which is also fifth in the Pac 12.  The defense is anchored by linebacker Michael Clay, Safety John Boyett and Linebacker Dewitt Stuckey.  The Ducks will have their hands full trying to keep Wilson in the pocket but so far this season DE Dion Jordan (7.5 sacks) and Josh Kaddu (6.5) have proven they can get to the quarterback to shake things up in the backfield.  The more they can rattle Wilson the better their chances of stopping Ball.  The big guys have to get the penetration up front to stop the Badger running game.

The Ducks are a 6 point favorite in this game.  That is crazy.  I like what the Ducks can do and I may be a bit biased but I think the better weapons will be dressed in cardinal and white for this game.  I just don’t believe the Oregon defense can stop the Badger offense.  I do believe the Badgers have more weapons on defense that can stop the Ducks.  Ok, maybe not stop them but at least slow them down or disrupt their flow enough to give the Badgers the chance to win.

Prediction:
Wisconsin 41 Oregon 39

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Elite WR Justin Blackmon leads the high-scoring Oklahoma State attack (Icon SMI)

Glendale AZ hosts the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Stanford Cardinal on Monday January 2 at 8pm ET, and in any other year this would be a fantastic BCSMNC (BCS Mythical National Championship).

Heck, one could well argue that the Cowboys deserved to be in the title game but that nasty loss at Iowa State “left it to the judges”.

Nonetheless, a great consolation prize and a true 3-4 matchup for bragging rights. Two respected coaches leading their alma mater to heights previously not known for the programs. Two of the best quarterbacks in the sport. And fans can enjoy the football for football sake.

Breakdown and predictions after the yump.

When the Pokes have the ball:

It can be argued that QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackmon and C Grant Garner represent the best at their respective positions, then when you see that RBs Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith combined for 1800 yards and 32 TDs you can see why the Cowboy offense strikes fear in every defensive coordinator’s dreams.

#3 nationally in yards per play (7.2), #2 with 49.3 Points per game, and most every college football fan has witnessed the sheer aesthetic gorgeousness of the Weeden fade route to Blackmon.

If there is a weakness to the Cowboy offense, it can be Weeden’s (well deserved) hubris on early downs trying to force passes into tight windows – of his 12 picks thrown, eight were on first down, and seven were when the Cowboys were up by 8+ points. I expect his mind will be focused given the national stage and importance of this game to himself and the program.

Stanford defense ranks in the top quartile in most categories, and they excel at creating havoc in the backfield (6th in sacks (3.17/gm) and 15th in tackles for loss). LB Chase Thomas provides the main assault on blocking schemes. One can argue that when ranked teams with talent came calling, the Stanford defense could not keep up. They allowed 48 to USC in a win and a similar scheme of Oregon put up 53 in the Cardinal’s only loss.

Key to the game: Cowboys offense tempo continues to be quick before the Cardinal can disrupt. If Coach Gundy and OC Todd Monken cannot establish the usual frenetic rhythm then advantage Stanford. But don’t expect that.

When the Cardinal have the ball:

Andrew Luck led his offense to impressive numbers too, #6 in the nation with 6.7 yards per play behind an excellent offensive line. LT Jonathan Martin should have a seat at the NFL Draft Green Room. If you can name a Stanford WR, you are a super fan – Luck spreads it around exceptionally well with SEVEN Cardinal with 20+ catches and three of those are TEs. If that isn’t enough to keep a defender’s head on a lazy susan, blink and you get back-to-back 1k RB Stepfan Taylor running up the gut. Coach David Shaw likes power football and is one of the rare college teams that relies on dual-threat tight ends to make it work.

Many pundits give Oklahoma State defense a bad rap, whether by ignorance or choice most focus on the yards allowed while discounting their nation-best 42 turnovers created. Granted, bend-but-don’t-break has its limits when the defense ranks 106th with 446 yards allowed per game but let us remember that the goal of the defense is to not allow points (average 60th at 26 ppg) and that is acceptable when you can score 50 on any given game.

If you think the spread or the triple option makes for a tough week of preparation, good luck fielding a scout team that can replicate three-tight formations and personnel that stretch the field vertically. Maybe the Cowboys can borrow some power forwards from their underwhelming hoops squad. Subtle advantage to Stanford.

Smart desert guys say: OSU 38-34

Most of my prediction work begins with the most informed spectators and what they do with their money versus what pundits say.

Both teams 6-6 Over/Under for the year, so feel good about the total points projection. Both teams much better than expected at 11-1, both essentially 9-3 against the spread (ATS) so again there isn’t much to go on from the smart guys.

If we dig deeper and look at ATS trends as a sort of “investor sentiment”, surprisingly all the Luck love over the last three seasons never quite made it to the bettors – 25-11! My educated guess is that the country thinks the rest of the roster is weak, but Luck just keeps putting the Cardinal on his shoulders. Kinda Tebow-like, but with a proper throwing motion.

Oklahoma State has been a tremendous favorite though during the last three seasons, going 22-8 overall and 13-0 when a moderate fave from 4 to 10 points.

These contradicting stats and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks – throw them all in a leftover gift bag, shake it all up and just sit back to enjoy the most compelling non-rematch of the bowl season.

PREDICTION: a little under expectations but a stellar game and a Cowboy win 35-31.

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Forget the game, everyone wants to talk about the coach.  Urban Meyer, the former Florida Gator coach and future Ohio State coach, will be the most talked about aspect of this game.  What a twist of irony that his former team and his future team are both appearing in this bowl game with 6-6 records after disappointing seasons for both teams.  Forget the early season suspensions.  The Big Ten has been buzzing about Meyer getting an exemption to be at the game for recruiting.  And we haven’t even begun to talk about the lovely things Florida fans are saying about their former coach.  Let’s just say Congress and Communism have a higher approval rating right now than Urban Meyer does in Gainesville.  Ohio State brings in a less than impressive offense to Jacksonville.  The Buckeyes ended the season ranked sixth in rushing offense (142.4), last in passing offense (124.1) and eighth in scoring offense (25.1).  The offense is led by quarterback Braxton Miller who passed for 997 yards and 11 touchdowns this year.  Miller is also the leading rusher for the Buckeyes with 695 yards but once Dan Herron returned from suspension he began compiling yards and has 596 yards this year.  The lack of a passing game has hurt the receiving corps this year and no one has really emerged as a real threat downfield.

The Gator offense has been about as impressive as well.  The Gators finished the season ranked eighth in rushing (144.0), fifth in passing (190.2) and seventh in scoring (25.6) in the SEC.  The offense is led by quarterback John Brantley who has thrown for 1912 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.  The primary running attack has come from Chris Rainey who has rushed for 790 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The primary receiving target has been Andre Debose with 423 yards and 4 touchdowns.  The Gators offense has struggled at times this year and had plenty of games where they failed to score more than 12 points.  If the offense can get going the score often.  When they struggle though they are abysmal.

The Buckeye defense has traditionally been one of the strongest assets for Ohio State.  It still had its moments this year but was not as strong as it had been in years past.  The Buckeyes ranked fifth in the Big Ten in sacks and fourth in interceptions.  The heart of the defense is linebacker Andrew Sweat.  He leads the Buckeyes with 34 solo tackles this year.  C.J. Barnett, Christian Bryant and Johnathan Hankins have also been key components of the Buckeye defense this year and have accounted for a majority of the tackles on the field.  John Simon leads the Buckeyes with 7 sacks which ranks third in the Big Ten.

The Gator defense is a similar story.  Traditionally a strong unit but a bit of a disappointment this year although they do have one of the better pass defenses in the nation.  The defense is led by linebacker Jonathan Bostic who has 53 solo tackles this season.  Jelani Jenkins (46 solo) is another key linebacker that keeps the Gators defense in the face of opposing offenses all day.  Matt Elam and Jaye Howard will also play a factor in giving the Buckeye offense a rough day.  Ronald Powell is the sack leader for the Gators.  He will try to add to that total if he can catch the speedy Miller in the backfield.

These two teams match up pretty well on paper but the Buckeyes have played like a lost group all season.  I don’t expect to see them come together as a unit for this game.  Perhaps once Meyer gets to Columbus and takes over things will be better but for now it looks like the Gators will be drinking the victory Champagne while the Buckeye fans will just be nursing a bad New Years hangover.

Prediction:
Florida 24  Ohio State 20

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This is one of the most even matched games of the bowl season.  Nebraska finished the season 9-3 with a 5-3 conference record and was third in the Big Ten Legends division.  South Carolina went 10-2 this year with a 6-2 conference record and was second in the SEC East.  South Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the nation.  Nebraska has one more thing on their side.  South Carolina has never beaten them.  Neither has Steve Spurrier.  And that is the kind of omen that gets in a fella’s head. The kind of thing that will make a guy throw his visor down in disgust and bite his bottom lip as he struggles to find the right play call.  I can picture Spurrier now pacing the sideline as he tries to beat Nebraska in this one.  But this time, he has a team that matches up well against the Cornhuskers.  Nebraska’s offense is led by the dual attack of quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Rex Burkhead.  Nebraska ended the season ranked third in rushing offense (223.9 yards per game), tenth in passing (166.6) and fourth in scoring (30.5) in the Big Ten.  Taylor Martinez has been a dual threat at quarterback as he passed for 1973 yards and 12 touchdowns and rushed for 837 yards and 9 touchdowns.  When Martinez isn’t running or throwing his main offensive weapon is Rex Burkhead.  Burkhead rushed for 1268 yards this year with 15 touchdowns.  The Cornhusker rushing attack is ranked 14th in the nation and should be able to test South Carolina’s defense.

South Carolina has an offense that matches up pretty well to Nebraska.  The Gamecocks ended the season ranked third in rushing offense (198.0), seventh in passing (177.4) and fifth in scoring (30.1) in the SEC.  The offense is led by quarterback Connor Shaw who claimed the staring job in October and has been improving as the season came to an end.  He threw for 1218 yards and 12 touchdowns during his short time at quarterback.  The rushing attack is led by Marcus Lattimore and Brandon Wilds.  Lattimore is out and Wilds has done a great job replacing him late in the season.  There has been concern recently about a hamstring injury that is nagging Wilds.  During the season, Wilds rushed for 486 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Alshon Jeffery is the leading receiving thread and could disrupt the Cornhusker secondary.  He caught 614 yards this year and 7 touchdowns.

Nebraska’s defense is one of the most generous defenses in the Big Ten.  They average giving up 22.8 points per game.  The defense ranked eleventh in the Big Ten in sacks this year.  The defense is missing a big pressure man up front.  Linebacker Lavonte David leads the team in tackles and is responsible for 3.5 of their sacks this year.  Will Compton also does a solid job anchoring the linebackers and keeping opposing offenses in check.

South Carolina brings one of the nations best defenses to Orlando.  The defense ranks fourth and yields only 18.8 points per game.  That was good enough to be ranked third in the SEC in scoring defense.  There are a few key contributors to this defenses success.  Antonio Allen has 50 solo tackles.  D.J. Swearinger has 51 and DeVonte Holloman had 30.  And we haven’t even mentioned Melvin Ingram yet.  Ingram has been a wrecking machine for the Gamecocks this year.  He has 9 sacks on the season (8 solo) and should be playing in the NFL next year.

From the match up we have here the best aspect of this game will be watching the Nebraska offense try to move the ball against the South Caroline defense.  Both sides features star players that can help their team win the game.  We just have to wait to see who will play the better game.

Prediction:
Nebraska  27 South Carolina 28

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The TicketCity Bowl organizers did what no one else was willing to do.  Invite Penn State to play in their bowl game.  Kudos to the organizers for having the courage to take the gamble.  The off the field stuff does not involve these players and they should not be penalized for it.  As for their opponent, well the organizers stumbled into that one.  Houston appeared to be on the verge of a BCS game until their conference championship collapse.  Now they are thrust into a lesser bowl but against a historic program that is sure to test their passing game.  Penn State has struggled on offense all year.  The quarterback position has been the major weakness that has kept the offense from performing at levels one would expect of former Penn State teams.  This year the Lions ended the season ranked eighth in rushing offense (165.1 yards per game), ninth in passing (180.3) and eleventh in scoring offense (19.8 points per game) in the Big Ten.  Despite their offensive struggles, they still finished second in the Leaders division in the Big Ten this year.  Robert Bolden will start at quarterback for the Lions.  He does not have impressive stats, throwing for only 548 yards and 1 touchdown along with 4 interceptions, but he should be healthy enough to scramble when needed and give the Cougar defense trouble.  The heart and soul of the Lion offense is Silas Redd.  Expect to see a huge running effort by Redd in this game.  So far he has rushed for 1188 yards and 7 touchdowns this year.  Derek Moye is the primary receiving target but with the change at quarterback he may not be a huge factor in this game.

Houston brings a high octane offense into Dallas.  The Cougars ended the year ranked fourth in rushing (155.2), first in passing (443.8) and first in scoring offense (50.8) in Conference USA.  The Cougars passing offense is also ranked first in the nation.  Houston has been led all year by quarterback Case Keenum.  His stats include an impressive 5099 yards passing and 45 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions.  Houston does run the ball on occasion.  Charles Sims (782 yards, 9TDs) and Michael Hayes (707, 11) get the call when they decide to keep it on the ground.  The real threat downfield though is receiver Patrick Edwards.  He has 1524 yards and 24 touchdowns this year.  When he is covered and Keenum needs another receiver he turns to Justin Johnson who has compiled 1081 yards and 11 touchdowns.  They have plenty of weapons to attack with on offense.  The one thing missing for this game will be the coach that led them all year.  He took the job in College Station earlier in December and won’t be there to lead the Cougars.

The Penn State defense has carried this team all year and is the reason they finished as high as they did in the Big Ten.  Their pass defense is ranked 5th in the nation so we should have a good match up for this one.  I am sure Penn State has studied the film from the Conference USA championship game to find ways to knock Houston off their game.  The Lions ranked 3rd in the Big Ten in sacks with 29 this year.  They were last in red zone defense though.  The trick is getting into the red zone against the Lions.  The defense is led by Gerald Hodges and Drew Astorino.  Jack Crawford and Devon Still also lead the way in putting pressure on the quarterback and will be expected to put plenty of pressure on Keenum in this one.  Nick Sukay leads the Lions with 3 interceptions this year.  He will try to add to that total against the Houston air attack.

Houston’s defense has not really been a major factor in the games this year.  When your offense averages 50 points you really don’t have to do much on the defensive side though.  Marcus McGraw leads the Cougar defense in tackles and will be the anchor for this game.  He will look for help from Sammy Brown and Derrick Mathews.  Sammy Brown leads Conference USA with 12 solo sacks.  The Cougar defense will need to be ready to put pressure on Bolden and stop Redd to keep the Lions under control.

The key match up in this game is the Penn State passing defense against the Houston passing offense.  Houston struggled in the Conference USA championship.  Now they have a shot to redeem themselves and put up some points on one of the best passing defense in the nation and from a well known university.  This should be a fun game to watch.

Prediction:
Houston 44 Penn State 20

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Both Illinois and UCLA come in to this came with records near the 500 mark.  That explains why both teams will have new coaches come next season and the men that coached them through 2011 won’t be on the sidelines for this game.  Illinois finished the year at 6-6 but suffered through a brutal 2-6 Big Ten Conference record.  UCLA brings a 6-7 record into this Bowl game and finished the year with a 5-4 record in the Pac-12.  Neither team particularly stands out for this one so this may just be one of those bowl games that turns into a nice surprise with a great game.  Then again it could be just what it looks like.  Two middle of the pack teams getting a bowl invite so their alums could spend money on a trip and the universities could do a little recruiting.  I suspect the latter and have already reserved my tee time.  Let’s look at how they match up:

The Illinois offense was once something the Big Ten coaches feared as conference play began this season.  Then the running game disappeared and they were left with just a passing attack.  It didn’t take long for opposing coaches to figure out how to control that aspect of the game either.  Illinois finished the season ranked seventh in the conference in rushing (171.2 yards), eighth in passing (187.0) and ninth in scoring (22.8).  Nathan Scheelhaase is an exciting young quarterback to watch and he threw for 1971 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.  The running game will focus on the legs of Troy Pollard who will bring an average of 7.45 yards per carry into this game.  The biggest receiving target for Illinois all year has been A.J. Jenkins.  Jenkins led the Big Ten in receptions with 84 catches this year and is closing in on the single season receiving yardage record.  If he has another 100 yard game, well he would tie the school record for games with 100 yards receiving.  It has been that good of a year for Jenkins.

UCLA is more of a running team.  The Bruins ranked third in the Pac 12 in rushing (190.7), eleventh in passing (198.1) and tenth in scoring (23.8).  The tandem backs of UCLA have pounded their way through many defenses all year to get the Bruins to this bowl game.  Johnathan Franklin has rushed for 947 yards while Derrick Coleman has pounded out 726 yards on the ground.  The two have combined for 16 touchdowns this year with Coleman getting most of those.  The Bruin quarterback is Kevin Prince and he has thrown for 1627 yards this year including 10 touchdowns.  His receiving target is Nelson Rosario who will bring a very impressive 18.1 yards per catch average into this game.

The Illinois defense is one of the best ranked defenses in the nation.  They ranked third in the conference against the run giving up an average of 132.7 yards per game.  The defense is anchored by All-American defensive end Whitney Mercilus who leads the nation in sacks and forced fumbles.  He is just 2 sacks shy of breaking Simeon Rice’s single season record of 16.  Another key contributor to the defense is linebacker Jonathan Brown.  These two are the main reason why the Illini defense ranks fifth in the nation in tackles for a loss.  Running against these guys won’t be an easy task.

The Bruins defense has been there worst aspect of their game all season.  In the Pac 12 they finished the season ranked eleventh against the run.  Their pass defense was much better ranking third but that begs the question, were they really better against the pass or were other teams just exploiting their weak run defense.  The defense does have 13 interceptions to their credit this season.  Tevin McDonald (3 Int), Andrew Abbott (4 Int) and Sean Westgate (3 Int) should certainly be lurking around and make Illinois pay for any poorly thrown balls that come their way.  The linebacker corps is led by Pat Larimore and Eric Kendricks.  They should provide plenty of challenges for the Illini in this one.

These teams actually match up well but just lack the appeal to draw a lot of folks to watch.  Illinois will certainly try to get A.J. Jenkins into the record books.  UCLA’s secondary is counting on that and looking forward to getting a few interceptions and trying to keep Jenkins under control.  UCLA has the backs to pound the ball up the field with and Illinois will certainly be ready for that challenge on defense.  Expect to see lots of pressure and lots of Illini defenders collapsing the pocket.  The Illinois defense is the bright spot for Illinois going into this game.  They will be looking to shine and put on a great performance as the bring an end to 2011 and look forward to 2012.

Prediction:  Illinois 24 UCLA 21

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It’s noon on the last day of 2011! What are you doing? Watching a pair of 6-6 teams square off in preparation for a 3:30 game involving a pair of 6-7 teams. Woo!

Texas A&M’s final game in the Big 12 will be recorded as a loss to Colt McCoy’s younger brother on a slow-weaving QB scramble from midfield into field goal range in the game’s closing seconds. In the process of reaching bowl eligibility, the Aggies blew double digit halftime leads against Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri and blew a 10 point lead against Kansas State with just over 6 minutes left in the game. It’s been a kind of dream season for the Aggies, from Austin’s perspective.

Northwestern, the closest team geographically to Madison in the Big Ten Where’s Wisconsin division, somehow lost consecutive games to Army and Illinois, but don’t worry folks – Jim Delany made damn sure that 10 of the 12 Big Ten teams would be playing somewhere this Bowl Season. Yay!

The Wildcats run a pretty high-powered offense, with QB Dan Persa completing an impressive 74% of his passes in a system that calls plays quickly and focuses on short, high percentage throws. Receiver Kain Colter is an x-factor QB/WR here, averaging 49 ypg rushing and 38 ypg receiving. Jeremy Ebert has been the main target through the air though, at 71 total receptions for 93 ypg.

Texas A&M has also been explosive offensively. QB Ryan Tannehill is averaging just shy of 300 ypg, and two RBs are gaining over 95 ypg. Unfortunately, of those two backs, Christine Michael has been lost for the season and Cyrus Gray is questionable. So the offense will probably be a bit less balanced than usual, and you can expect Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller to see a lot of balls thrown their way.

Overall, we’ve got two pretty good quarterbacks going up against two mediocre-to-bad defenses. My gut trusts the Aggie defense a little more than their NU counterparts, so I’ll go with A&M to win a high-scoring game.

Prediction: Texas A&M 38, Northwestern 27

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Iowa may not have Mr America QB Ricky Stanzi anymore, but do have the nation’s first presidential caucuses in a few weeks and they were the subject of some pretty awesome “Rick PArry” ads run by the Colbert Super-PAC. They also have a legitimately impressive RB (Marcus Coker, 115 ypg) and receiver (Marvin McNutt, 106 ypg) so there is some balanced firepower on this squad. Sure, they may have gotten slightly out-gained in the season aggregates, and sure, they
finished in the bottom half of the Big 10′s Where’s Wisconsin division. But, other than Minnesota and Iowa State, this team didn’t have any bad
losses, and they made up for those with some impressive wins like, umm…

On to Oklahoma!

It’s weird for a Texas fan to say this, but OU caught some really bad breaks this season and if life was fair they’d be in a better bowl. Not based on their 9-3 record, but I mean if they hadn’t lost one of the best two WR in the country (Ryan Broyles) and their starting HB Dominique Whaley, they might have finished with another win or two and a top 10 ranking. Nevertheless, this is a very good team. Landry Jones throws for 358 ypg, even with Broyles out for 3 games, and Kenny Stills and Jaz Reynolds have both been very effective receivers. In three losses, the defense has given up 40+ points, but that’s only indicative of a really
poor effort against Texas Tech. Against Baylor and Oklahoma State, you kinda expect that unless the defense is really elite.

The bottom line is that Iowa is too outmatched at QB, WR depth, and probably on the lines to make this a competitive game.

Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Iowa 17

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Predicted Finish:  Georgia Tech 42 vs. Utah 24

The Yellow jackets led all of the NCAA in points scored through the first half of the season, which is a huge deal considering some of the extremely potent offenses out there in the college landscape. The thing that is even more impressive about that feat is the fact that they were getting it done through the air as often as they were on the ground. The Utes on the other hand were the complete opposite of that. They struggled to score earlier in the season, but found their stride by mid-season and averaged just over 30 points per game during the second half of the year.

Tech still runs the triple option, which means that we will see somewhere around 50 – 55 run plays divided pretty evenly between RB Orwin Smith, RB Roddy Jones, and field General, QB Tevin Washington. The aerial assault will most likely focus around WR Stephen Hill who started the year with back-to-back breakout performances. Utah runs a much more balanced attack on offense led by juniors QB Jon Hayes and RB John White IV.

Georgia Tech’s defense has been hit or miss this season under Al Groh, but when they have been on, they have played lights out. Utah’s defense is average at best and will have a hard time stopping the run.

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Predicted finish:  Mississippi State 30 vs. Wake Forest 28

This is a matchup that could provide some excitement. With both teams having a 6-6 record, they barely met their bowl eligibility, but both teams have a unique offense that could be fun to watch. Both teams are better than their records show, which is why I think this could be the best bowl game that no one watches.

Wake’s QB Tanner Price made tremendous strides in just his sophomore year, keeping his team in all but two games. The defense is what really let this team down. The running game, lead by Brandon Pendergrass, should find some decent running lanes in this one, and watch for stud WR Chris Givens to give the Bulldogs fits all day long.

Mississippi State’s QB Chris Relf is a dual-threat QB that is better at running than he is throwing, so we will most certainly see some heavy doses of QB Tyler Russell on obvious passing downs. Mississippi State’s biggest threat on offense is senior running back Vick Ballard, who ran for 1,009 yards this season and has scored 29 total touchdowns over the past two years.

I see this one coming down to a last minute drive ending in a long field goal attempt for the win. Whether that is Miss. St making it for the win or Wake Forest missing it for the loss is what we all will have to watch and see.

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In 2008, on the 4th of July, that boy began his pilgrimage to his homeland. The Pacific Ocean was a long swim, but he had been preparing for this for his whole life. Two months later, he arrived in Waco, Texas.

Robert Griffin III is the perfect hipster. When he listens to a band, everyone else forgets they ever existed. He has the ability to turn water into wine, but he prefers to drink PBR. His favorite number is the number J. Superman wears an entire outfit modeled after the socks RG3 wore to receive his Heisman Trophy.For years, you’ve been reading it here at FantasyCollegeBlitz. Finally, the experts have realized what we’ve known since the final months of the Bush administration: Sir Robert C. “Cream” Griffin III, Esq is the best player in college football. Maybe the best ever. This Thursday night, we will see him take the college field for what may be the final time. Perhaps it’s fitting that this game is called the Alamo Bowl, because if Robert Griffin had been at the Alamo then the Texans would have won.

His comrades in battle are go-to WR Kendall Wright (131 ypg), Terrance Williams (81 ypg), and Tevin Reese (68 ypg). Terrance Ganaway provides his option on the ground (112 ypg). All the while, Griffin himself averages almost 400 total yards per game including an astounding 192.3 passer rating. Just when you think you’ve got him wrapped up, he does a 5-star reverse elastico and throws a perfect 50 yard touchdown pass… to himself. If you don’t think that 100% of his receptions have been to convert key 3rd downs on game-winning drives against higher-ranked teams, then you obviously didn’t follow Baylor football this year. So whenyou’re watching him gallop past, through, and over defenders, it’ll give you a glimpse of what the 400m hurdles (which Griffin is a Big 12 gold medalist in) would look like as a contact sport. Only the field isn’t 400m long and none of the other players have the same combination of speed and agility, so it’s also like watching someone go back and play the original Mario Bros after spending the last three years grinding out games on the Korean ladder in Starcraft.

Griffin’s feeble opposition en route to the Bears’ first 10-win season since 1980 will be the Washington Huskies. UW backup QB Nick Montana once commented that the only player he’s ever seen who is a better passer than Griffin is his own father. But, he noted, Joe didn’t average 50+ ypg rushing. Indeed, only one of the Husky runningbacks, Chris Polk, averages more yards on the ground per game than His Creamliness. And none of their WRs have Griffin’s 100% 3rd down conversion rate.

Things may look bleak for the Huskies, but don’t feel too sorry for them. Not only do they get to take the field alongside the greatest player in college football, but Baylor’s defense is also terrible, so the final score should be respectable.

Baylor 1687, Washington 1407.

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Predicted Finish:  Notre Dame 17 vs. Florida State 24

This is the battle of “What-Could-Have-Beens.” Notre Dame was supposed to take the next step and become that pass-happy powerhouse that we were all accustomed to under Chip Kelly. We didn’t see it. In fact, the Fighting Irish did not settle on their QB until just before their bye week, half-way through the season. The defense kept them in games, but their offense often times failed to win them. The ‘Noles on the other hand saw one of the largest improvements in overall defense in recent years, but their inept offense never seemed to be able to take advantage of the favorable situations that the defense put them in. With the combination of numerous injuries, the inability to run the ball, and QB accuracy issues, this was one of the worst offenses FSU has had under Jimbo Fisher’sdirections. Both teams come to this math-up with 8-4 records.

Notre Dame has a very clear advantage in running game as they averaged 166 yards per game on the ground, compared to the ‘Noles who barely eclipsed 100 yards per game. The Golden Domers thunder (Jonas Gray) and lightening (Cierre Wood) combo rushed for almost 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. Florida State will rely on true freshman Davonta Freeman to shoulder the load with senior Jermaine Thomas sprinkled in. The passing games, headed by QB EJ Manuel for the Seminoles and QBTommy Reese for Notre Dame, will struggle to find a whole lot through the air as both secondaries are very formidable.  This will come down to the better WR group, and outside of Michael Floyd, the Irish don’t have a whole lot there. On the other hand, FSU has too many WR to know what to do with, but keep an eye on true freshman Rashad Greene, who had a breakout season.

This game will come down to defense and FSU should have the edge here as their #5 ranked defense in the nation should make it tough to run the ball, which will put the game in Reese’s hands.

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Texas. Cal. Holiday Bowl. It’s tough to read those four words without thinking of the 2004 season, when Texas and Cal both finished with 1 loss apiece (to unbeaten Oklahoma/USC) and it was Texas chosen by the narrowest of margins to play in the BCS. (Keep in mind that these kids were in middle school back in 2004…)

Vince Young and the Horns went on to win one of the best Rose Bowls ever played (until, you know, their win the following year) while Aaron Rodgers and Cal were embarassed by Mike Leach’s Red Raiders in… the Holiday Bowl!

This year, both teams limp into this game at 7-5 with 4-5 records in their respective conferences. Texas has struggled mightily down the stretch, winning just one of their last 4 games, while Cal finished with a boom (3-1) with only a narrow loss to highly-ranked Stanford. But that may be a matter of schedule ordering – neither team won a game in conference against a team with more than 6 wins.Both teams faced UCLA, with Texas winning 49-20 and Cal losing 31-14.

Cal’s attack is based around RB Isi Sofele (almost 20 carries per game, 106 ypg) and WR Keenan Allen (7.5 catches per game, 105 ypg). QB Zach Maynard had a decent but not great season, compiling a passer rating of 129.4 while throwing 17 TD to 11 INT.

Texas’s attack is based around multiple RBs as the Longhorns actually rush for more ypg (210) than they pass for (193). However, Malcolm Brown and Joe
Bergeron were banged up at the end of the season, and Fozzy Whittaker is definitely out. Case McCoy and David Ash are both expected to play some at QB, but McCoy seems to have played a little better overall and boosted his status with the game-winning drive at A&M.

PREDICTION

Texas seems to have a better defense, and the teams’ games against common opponent UCLA is also a little indication in UT’s favor.

Longhorns 24-17.

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Who has the edge?  Let’s take a look at how these teams match up for this contest.

Purdue’s offense ranked sixth in the Big Ten rushing (174.7 yards) and passing (196.8).  They ranked seventh in scoring with 26.1 points per game.  The running game will be a concern with Ralph Bolden missing this game due to an injury but Akeem Hunt was able to rush for 100 yards against the Hoosiers in the season finale.  The passing game has been shaky all year but has improved as the season progressed.  Caleb TerBush averages 150.3 yards per game and has thrown 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.  The receiving leaders for Purdue are Justin Siller (430 yards) and Antavian Edison (561 yards).

Western Michigan’ offense ranked eighth in rushing (127.4), first in passing (328.8) and third in scoring with 35.6 points per game.  Their passing game is ranked eighth in the nation.  Led by quarterback Alex Carder, the Broncos passing attack will certainly prove to be a challenge for Purdue.  Carder’s shoulder should be healed and ready to add to his 3,434 passing yards this season.  Carder also has thrown 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  The Broncos running game is rarely seen, but when it does make an appearance you will see Tevin Drake getting the carries.  This year he has carried for 570 yards and 4 touchdowns.  The big threat on the field is All-American Bronco receiver Jordan White.  White leads the nation in total receiving yards with 1,646 and a few other categories.  He ranks second in receiving touchdowns with 16 on the year.

The Purdue defense features a defensive unit that ranked eighth in the Big Ten against the pass.  The pass rush is led by Kawann Short who finished the regular season with 6.5 sacks and 53 tackles.  He will need to put lots of pressure on Carder to give the Boilermakers a chance to compete in this one.  Ricardo Allen will be called upon to stop White.  Allen is the best one-on-one pass defender the Boilermakers have and he will probably spend the game being White’s shadow.

The Broncos defense looks pretty questionable on paper.  Eighth against the pass and eleventh against the run in the MAC.  Don’t let the numbers fool you though, the Broncos are an offensive minded team that will outscore you.  They don’t plan on stopping you on defense, they plan on beating you with their passing attack.  They do feature the MAC defensive player of the year in Drew Nowak ranks fifth in FBS in tackles per loss per game.  The big defensive tackle will get after you and makes life rough on offensive linemen.  The Broncos had 26 sacks this season, tied for second in the MAC.  Freddie Bishop is another player that gets in there as he posted 5.5 sacks this year.

Overall, Western Michigan looks to have the advantage going into this one.  They average more points per game, throw for a lot more yards per game and should be able to stretch the Purdue defense to keep the passing attack going for this one.

Prediction: Western Michigan 34  Purdue 30

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