Fiesta Bowl Preview: Longhorn angst or Buckeyes break streak?

January 4th, 2009 by Vince Mullins

I had dismissed this Fiesta Bowl game from my mind, thinking of it as just another top-level bowl for the Buckeyes to lose and another opportunity to be aurally assaulted by Longhorns demanding a recount of their conference standings.

The Buckeyes have bowled in Arizona six times during Tressel’s eight years at the helm (two of them title game losses) and the Longhorns likely harbor some ill will about being left out of the title game, so the potential for lasseiz-faire approach to the contest is possible on both sides. You may remember the 2006-7 home-and-home between these titans that set up the Buckeye title runs and think that this game has little to offer over those clashes.

But after reorienting myself (perhaps still dizzy from a New Year’s Eve rendezvous with a bottle of Bombay Sapphire) I am legitimately excited for this collegiate version of Monday Night Football. Both offenses feature excellent QBs who can run it and stout defensive lines. Perhaps it is my early upbringing in Akron, OH and early baptism in the Buckeye fire, maybe it is just resetting myself to a really stellar matchup in this excellent exhibition game.

Fun facts for the chick at the watch party

Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor was not made available to the media before the game. Pryor is a chatty kid, perhaps Tressel shielded him from providing bulletin board material under the guise of “film study”. In same article, the normally rabid Buckeye fans bow to the economy and are making it difficult for tour operators to operate at capacity.

Akron Beacon Journal chronicles the recent bowl history of the Buckeyes – think Buffalo Bills taking social science classes.

Seems like other outlets are focusing on Freshman DB Blake Gideon’s dropped interception as the turning point for the Longhorns season (a few weeks after I did) – AP, Austin Statesman and the Dallas Morning News got quotes from the freshman DB this week who is handling it very well.

Colt McCoy could be confused for a maestro conductor of the#4 offense in the country, but it seems his musical talent was voiced in other places besides the huddle.

Longhorns Game Week

When Ohio State has the ball

(OSU # 37 offense versus UT #25 defense)

Many point to the Longhorns weakness against the pass, and that is borne out in their 5.2 yards/play allowed this season (58th in the nation) but I would clawback that;

(a) they are impossible to run against so opponents pass 60% of the time and
(b) think of the pass-happy offenses on their Big 12 schedule.

Given that and the Ohio State offensivee efficiency likely is enhanced by their strong defense allowing short field positions I think The Longhorns have an edge here. Add to the mix freshman QB Pryor in his first bowl game and a one-dimensional running offense (2:1 run/pass ratio) and there is significant downside expectations for the Buckeye offense. This bet is off if RB Beanie Wells can bust for a few long runs since Texas really tightens up in the red zone, seventh in the nation allowing scores on only 72% of trips (28 of 39). Another weakness of the Texas D – 102nd in the nation in turnovers forced (only 16).

Texas also led the nation in sacks per game (3.67) and they didn’t just feed off Rice and Arkansas. I am certain that DE Brian Orakpo will rudely introduce himself to Pryor at least once this game.

When Longhorns have the ball

(UT #4 offense vs. OSU #8 defense)

Ahh, Colt McCoy led the nation in completion percentage and also led his team in rushing – he is like Pat White in that he IS the offense. WR Jordan Shipley chipped in nicely during the middle of the schedule both receiving and kick returning as the Longhorns stand 5th in the nation in pts/gm (44). A big reason for the strong efficiency ratings are the nation’s 5th-best 13 turnovers lost.

But look at the other side of the ball at one of seven teams to allow fewer than 20 TDs for the entire campaign. The Buckeyes forced 28 turnovers, but I will grant to you that they played some bad offenses. I will spend little time propping up James Laurinaitis (photo courtesy Icon SMI) as his multiple Butkus Award nominations do all the talking.

Edge Longhorns here as well though.

What Vegas Says

Texas is an 8.5-point favorite and the total is set at 51, so the moneyman models predict a 30-21 Longhorn win. Interesting but likely useless stat – Buckeyes are 1-5 on Monday games since 1992.

What Mullins says

That TD+1 sounds like a big margin in a battle of top teams – plus Texas may still have sour grapes over their bowl destiny. Above I set the table for a lower scoring game but I expect it to be closer: