Fresh Faces in College Football 2008

May 29th, 2008 by Jason Collette

I have been writing about fantasy sports for going on six years now, mainly about baseball . In that time, I made a niche as one of the early guys who covered minor league baseball players from a fantasy baseball perspective because I was always looking for ways to get ahead of the competition in my leagues.

Naturally, this is something that plays well into fantasy college football because the players come and go out of programs quicker than women in Derek Jeter ’s life.

If you are going to pick a freshman for one of your roster spots, it needs to be a good pick because the odds of that player being productive for you are slim.

Just how slim is it? Each year, cfbstats .com posts a top 100 players for rushing, passing, and receiving. Looking over those numbers paints a grim picture for freshmen…

What makes fantasy college football unique is a majority of leagues are not dynasty leagues so most owners are drafting new players each year. That makes it particularly tough to draft freshmen players as many do not make immediate impacts on teams, particularly in the passing game. Additionally, it’s doubly important to know which guys to target for sleeper picks late in your draft.

Since 2004, thirteen of the players who appear on the Top 100 rushers list were freshmen, and three of those (Pat White, James Starks, and Joel Armstrong ) were quarterbacks. Of those same players, only sixteen of them rushed for more than 1000 yards and only ten freshmen in the last four years have both rushed for more than 1000 yards and scored ten or more touchdowns.

The numbers are even worse for freshmen wide receivers as only seven percent of those same top 100 lists have been populated with freshmen. Only eight of those freshmen have topped 1000 yards in a season and only five of those players scored ten or more touchdowns. If you play in a BCS only league, the numbers are more grim as only Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin have broken 1000 yards as a freshman these past four seasons.

For Quarterbacks, the numbers are not quite as bleak. On a pure passing basis, 10% of freshmen quarterbacks have made Top 100 passing totals in the past four seasons. However, only three percent of those players passed for 2500 or more yards in a single season. The good news is that eight of those ten players were quarterbacks of BCS programs.

Overall, 118 players make up the 1200 players that have populated the Top 100 lists since 2004. That translates into a 10% success rate for fantasy college players turning a freshman draft pick into a significant contributor to a fantasy roster. With those kind of slim odds, it behooves you to know your 2008 freshmen and decide which ones are worth rostering and which ones are worth talking up to your leaguemates so they burn a roster spot on a player that has a 90% chance of disappointing.

Over the next few weeks, I will break down some of the freshmen, by conference, that might be factors in 2008 college offenses starting with Conference USA next week. I will alternate divisions each week so that both BCS and non-BCS schools get equal coverage. What a novel concept.

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