We turn statistician extraordinaire Matt Ryan loose on any stat he can find for our Hacking series – he cites the source, then he puts the data in a rear naked choke and twists it into something useful for fantasy college football.

Colin Kaepernick - due for a fall if his offensive line fails to gel? (Icon SMI)

Today I am starting with Phil Steele’s 2010 projected SOS rankings (pg 317), then I overlaid the research I did on the Draft Talent Lost. It tracks the top 300 NFL 2010 prospects and about 350 additional undrafted rookies who had an invite to an NFL camp.

The logic here can best be illustrated by my beloved Tennessee Vols: Even though they are breaking in an entirely new OL, the chart says they lost 3 NFL-caliber O-Linemen. They had 2 walk-on starters in 2009 who were not good enough to get an invite to camp with any team, so presumably these 2 will be easier to replace, or at very least there will not be a talent drop-off from the guys who do step up in their stead.

Ive taken a quick breakdown and identified some teams without a lot of returning OL starts that also did not have many (if any) NFL-quality O-Lineman holding back any youngsters last season. These teams appear at a glance to not only lack experience but also quality along the OL and may cause their skill guys to under preform. I will look on the flipside also to find potential values:

OVERVALUED

Nevada sticks out since QB Colin Kaepernick is likely to go in most league’s Top 5 and RB Vai Taua will go in most Top 10s, so be aware these two may be overvalued on draft day. And not that Bowling Green and Idaho needed any help ratcheting down expectations after losing big time WRs (Barnes, Komar), but the new guys get to operate behind a new line. QB Russell Wilson may want to go back to baseball after enduring a brand new NC State O-line too.

NOTE: Tennessee doesn’t make this list since while they have very few game-starts coming back (13, 117th) they did lose 3 NFL-caliber OL guys, so presumably those studs held back guys who may become NFL-caliber prospects themselves this season. That is confidence in your team, man!

UNDERVALUED

On the flipside, the below teams have lots of returning experience along the OL and great depth since they lost at most only 1 NFL-quality O-Lineman.

Combo this with SOS numbers and some things jump off the board, namely North Texas RB Lance Dunbar. Possibly worth a #1 pick? The OL is back virtually intact, and the other main rushing threat (QB Riley Dodge, 100 carries 500 yds and 5 TDs is now a WR) is gone. Averaging 6.9 per touch last season, give those 100 carries to Dunbar and watchout. But even simply adding Riley’s numbers to Dunbar’s 1400 and 17 and youre talking about a 1900 yards and 22 scores even if there is no skill/decision improvement in Dunbar from his freshman campaign. Add in the returning OL and extra year of seasoning everyone has and you could be easily be talking about a 2200+ yard rusher with 28+ scores in 2010. Plus the schedule trades 2009 Champ Alabama for 2010 chump Clemson.

QB Alex Carder (heir apaprent to Tim Hiller) could have a helluva season at Western Michigan with that OL and the MAC’s top WR corps, and will almost certainly be available in the later rounds of most drafts as a late-round-gem.

Robbie Rouse could have a great season for Fresno State and quickly make people forget about Ryan Matthews, and the winner of the Bulldog QB derby could put up some nice numbers as well if he can firmly nail the job down.

Other players to watch for breakouts – Auburn QB Cam Newton and Mario Fannin, anyone of the new skill guys at Central Michigan, Rice RB Sam McGuffie, BC RB Montel Harris and why not a return to grace by Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis?

What other values do you see here?

Related posts:

1. Hacking: 2010 Fantasy Defense Rankings
2. Hacking: What programs cultivate the best talent?
3. NFL Draft: Late Round Finds vs. Undrafted Gems

Tags: Hacking, Hacking Phil Steele, OL, SOS