HAWAII BOWL PREVIEW: Mele Kelikimaka, Notre Dame fans

December 24th, 2008 by Vince Mullins

Christmas In Hawaii

First off, the merriest of holiday weeks to all our loyal readers – whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah or any winter solstice inspired festival (lights everywhere for the shortest days of the year, na’mean?) enjoy it warmly with friends and family. Thanks for considering us part of that.

For the environmentally conscious among you, the Irish are traveling over 4000 miles for the Hawaii Bowl versus the hometown Hawaii Warriors, easily the most of any bowl team in a year where bowl home teams are the rage in this new era of minimalism. Anyone wanna calculate that carbon footprint?

In another spot of irony, Hawaii committed the most football sins of any team in the nation with over 1000 yards of penalties - will the Irish offer penance?

Stats, trends and cool conversation starters for the girls at the party/bar after the jump…

The Hawaii Bowl exists mainly to get the Warriors to a bowl game if they qualify, and the best part is that they can have their pick of opponents who would love to travel to the islands for holiday break and they are great hosts – until game day!

Hawaii Warriors Bowl Results since 1999
1999	Oahu	Oregon State	23-17	W
2002	Hawai’i	Tulane	28-36	L
2003	Hawai’i	Houston	54-48	W
2004	Hawai’i	UAB	59-40	W
2006	Hawai’i	Arizona State	41-24	W
2007	Sugar	Georgia	10-41	L
2008	Hawai’i	Notre Dame	?	?

This season I have to admit this creates a rather compelling matchup of 6-loss bowl teams, if for nothing else for how far these two programs have fallen in the last 12 months or more. The Colt Brennan era of Hawaii football clearly passed (see what I did there?) and it took until November for Hawaii to gain any traction this season. For Notre Dame, they have not been a legitimate national contender since green-giant Jerome Bettis ran all over Florida in 1991.

Cool lines for ladies at the watch party

“Notre Dame hasn’t won a bowl game since 1994 – you know that was the year that (insert the fact that you think will most impress her – you have to read the coverage here, mates)

Church of England ordained its first female priests
OJ Simpson allegedly murdered his wife and her waiter
Netscape Navigator was released, ushering in the era of the World Wide Web (screw those damn 3686785634872@compuserve email addresses!!!)
Kurt Cobain committed suicide
Forrest Gump earned top grossing movie of the year.
Stone Temple Pilots won a Grammy for “Plush”

When Notre Dame has the ball

Hawaii’ strength looked to be their defense but that just hasn’t held up – the BlitzIndex puts them at #79 nationally, basically below average. Their sluggish pre-November offense gave opponents a lot of short fields, hence their very bad #89 rank in yards/point allowed (12.88). Hawaii has two true warriors at the LB position, a couple of moderate NFL prospects in Adam Leonard and Solomon Elimimian who will likely not have to worry much about the Notre Dame run offense (101st in run yds/att).

Irish QB Jimmy Clausen hold the ire of many fans and analysts alike as he has yet to put the offense on his shoulders, however this season he is spending much less time on his butt with the improvement in the offensive line. I tend to be a trend guy, but the ND offense should look a ton better with the healthy return of WR Michael Floyd – the offense scored around 30ppg in a six-game stretch where Floyd produced well. Expect better than the #91 offense in tonight’s battle, edge slightly to ND, even if Charlie Weis is going to call the plays on a bad knee.

When Hawaii has the ball

Notre Dame defense seems pretty darn good even factoring in an average-at-best strength of schedule – they stand at #44 in my BlitzIndex rankings and are #18 nationally in pass efficiency defense. That does not portend well for Hawaii that has had success passing in November despite being the worst in the nation in protecting the QB (49 sacks allowed).

Hawaii has changed QBs more often than the US Treasury changes its approach to the credit crisis – actually the Warriors have only played three QB so that is not fair to compare Coach McMackin to the old Goldman Sachs frat but I digress. TE-sized QB Greg Alexander has put on a heck of a run since taking over the gig in late October, puttting a 4-2 record up with a 12/4 TD/int ratio.

Kudos to the offensive structure that spreads the ball around so well – no one player stands out at the skill positions. Slotback Kealoha Pilares and speedster Malcolm Lane performed better last year and need to be accounted for even if they have not captured that 2007 magic yet.

This game really boils down to how well Hawai’i can keep Alexander on his feet and allow him to make plays – if he make the Herculean plays that his physique suggests he can the islands may have a reason to celebrate. I give that a big if, edge to the Irish here also.

Intangibles

The travel. I cannot emphasize how tough it is to take this trip, even if the Irish arrived last Friday and have had four days to get acclimated to the six-hour time change. Plus the luaus, the relaxing rhythms of the surf and island life and the site of Coach Weis in board shorts (eek, I gotta go to the poi-let!) If any college program has the resources to make this trip as benign as possible to these 18-22 year olds it is grand Notre Dame, plus Causen says he has made this trip a few times before with the family so at least he will know what to expect. I still give a big edge to the Warriors here.

Also, Warriors are 3-1 in the last four, ND 1-3. And president-elect is vacationing in his homeland this week and is reportedly going to check out the game. Obama-mentum favors the Warriors.

One reason (besides sand, surf and gorgeous “scenery”) that ND likely chose to travel to our 50th state? They are hot on the recruiting trail of LB/RB/Eagle Scout Manti Te’o, the Sporting News High School Player of the Year.

What does Vegas say?

Not trying to suggest any illegal activity here, just using the only “market-based” perceptions available to sports fans. How illegal can it be when the data is everywhere?

Hawaii opened as a 1-point dog but have surged to a 1-point favorite, and the money men put the total points at 48. Some books still have the Warriors as a dog, so there is a lot of confusion on this game. So applying high-level mathematics here, expected score is like 24-23 one way or the other.

What does Mullins say?

My “on the ball” analysis has this pretty tight, but the travel and other intangibles strongly point to the Warriors. I think it may be a little lower scoring than the big boys say…CUE THE HAKA!