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Mock NFL Draft Update: Enter Tim Tebow

April 16th, 2010 by Drew Smith

Tim Tebow works out for all of the gathered during the Florida Gators Pro Day (thanks Icon SMI)

Tim Tebow works out for all of the gathered during the Florida Gators Pro Day (thanks Icon SMI)

The trade of Donovan McNabb obviously got all the headlines; but, it was the trade that most football fans didn’t see or perhaps didn’t care about that had the biggest impact on my latest mock draft.

The Lions trading for Rob Sims from the Seahawks finally has me convinced that they are going to trade Ndamukong Suh.  This minor trade caused changes in 5 of my top 10 picks.  The teens remained stabled but with the trade of Santanio Holmes we see more changes in the picks in the 20s. While the Brandon Marshall pick makes the Broncos pick tougher, in the end didn’t affect this mock. The draft is coming up rather quickly so be sure to check back for updated mocks.

1) St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma- Bradford might not be the top rated player in the draft but he is the top rated QB.  The Rams are desperate for a franchise QB and will almost certainly take one with the top pick unless they make a trade for a QB they believe can win them games before the draft.

2) Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska – The trade for Rob Sims finally convinced me that the Lions do intend to draft Suh with this pick.   A strong argument can be made that they should continue to build the offensive line in which I tend to agree with.  However, if you are going to go against this thinking, then drafting Suh is the only option that makes sense.

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma- Part of the Bucs coaches have to be delighted to see the Lions draft Suh because that means that McCoy, who is a better fit to their defense, will be the pick.  There is really no other option for the Bucs but if they passed on McCoy for some reason then someone like Eric Berry or Jason Pierre-Paul would most likely be who they are targeting.

4) Washington Redskins – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma – A lot of people have Russell Okung here as a default because he is considered the top OT.  The thing is, someone has to be considered the #1 OT, but in this case there is little difference in over-all talent between Okung and Bryan Bulaga and Williams.  Williams is a much better fit to the Redskins zone blocking scheme than Okung.

5) Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa- If we learned anything from last year’s draft it is that Scott Pioli is big on positional value.  That alone should rule out Eric Berry from the discussion as drafting a safety with the 5th pick.  Okung is a possibility because as I mentioned with the Redskins, he is considered the top OL in the draft.  However just like the ‘Skins, Okung is just not as good of a fit in their zone blocking scheme as Bulaga.  He might not had the press as some of the other OT in the draft but he is a solid player who can start contributing immediately. Plus Bulaga has a mean streak that coaches love from their linemen.

6) Seattle Seahawks – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St- The Seahawks will benefit from the Redskins and Chiefs passing on Okung and get the top OT in the draft with the 6th pick.  Eric Berry makes sense from a need standpoint but Pete Carrol is smart enough to not pass on Okung.

7) Cleveland Browns – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee-.  The Browns will have a very tough decision between taking the QB of the future in Jimmy Clausen or going with the highest rated safety in the draft since Sean Taylor.  The Browns secondary is a mess and Berry would go a long way to improving it immediately. Most people are reporting that the Browns will go with Berry or Joe Haden with this pick and it certainly makes sense to me.  However, I got this sneaky gut feeling that Clausen could be the pick here.

8) Oakland Raiders – Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida- The Raiders drafting style is just plain laughable.  Who are the biggest combine freaks at a position they need? Bam there is your pick for the Raiders.  It seems like this pick will come down to Bruce Campbell or Pierre-Paul and while Campbell fills a bigger need, Pierre-Paul is the bigger freak and therefore in Al Davis’s mind is obviously the logical pick. Many folks saw the trade for Kamerion Wimbley as a sign that the Raiders wouldn’t draft a DE but he will be playing LB in their 4-3 defense.

9) Buffalo Bills – Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame- The Bills are in a similar situation as the Browns in that most reports have them eyeing an OT with this pick — that certainly makes sense to me.  I just have a hard time accepting that two teams with new people running it will both pass on a potential franchise QB.  Clausen will be in for an epic fall if he gets out of the Top 10, similar to what we saw from Aaron Rodgers.

10) Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech-The Jags signed Aaron Kapman but he is old and coming off knee surgery so I think that Morgan will be too tough to pass on.  Dez Byrant is another strong possibility to give Tim Tebow <cough>, I mean David Garrard another weapon as part of the Jags front office is probably still upset with passing on Michael Crabtree last year.

11) Denver Broncos – Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama–The Broncos seemed like a lock to select Dan Williams before signing Jamal Williams.  After addressing most of their defensive needs with free agents, the Broncos have the luxury of drafting the top WR in the draft.  I see the Broncos passing on Dez Bryant as he continues to make poor decisions and they just don’t want another headache.

12) Miami Dolphins – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas- The more I think about it the more I think the Dolphins go with a pass-rushing LB with this pick.  It is a major need and Bill Parcels has a long track record of going this route.  Kindle was a highly productive pass rusher in college the highest rated one left on the board.  If Pierre-Paul were to slip past the Raiders then I see the Fins preferring him over Kindle.

13) San Francisco 49’ers – Joe Haden, CB, Florida-  Haden has seen his stock drop after a disappointing combine but I don’t expect to see him drop too far.  The 49’ers have been linked to CJ Spiller with this pick but if they are choosing between the top CB in the draft and a change-of-pace RB, I think we know the answer.  If you recall this is the same situation with the Saints last year; everyone was predicting RB but they took the top CB in Malcolm Jenkins.

14) Seattle Seahawks – CJ Spiller, Ohio State- Seattle needs some excitement on offense and Spiller is just the player to do that.  Pete Carroll would be bragging to people saying ‘what is so hard about this drafting stuff?’ if he could come away with the top OT in Okung and the top RB in Spiller as his top two picks.

15) New York Giants – Brian Price, DT, UCLA- Price hasn’t gotten a lot of press because everyone is talking about Suh and McCoy but he has quietly solidified a Top 20 spot in the draft.  The Giants love drafting lineman and Price would be a nice value here despite having what some consider a poor pro day.

16) Tennessee Titans – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee-The Titans could actually go a few different directions with this pick.  They have a huge need on the defensive line so taking someone like Williams makes a lot of sense but I could also see them going with a CB like Kyle Wilson, DE Everest Griffen or maybe even Bryant or Demaryius Thomas could present too much value for them to pass on.

17) San Francisco 49’ers – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland – The 49’ers have a need at OT and Campbell is the last one in that first tier who many project as a Top 10 player.  If Spiller is still on the board, then I could see them selecting him here.

18) Pittsburgh Steelers – Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech- Minutes after word spread that the Steelers gave Santanio Holmes to the Jets for nothing, the debate of whether the Steelers would need to draft a WR in the 1st round erupted.  The answer is ‘no’ they do not need to draft a WR as they could get by with Hines Ward and Mike Wallace.  However, Ward is getting up there in age and Wallace is better suited for in the slot.  Thomas is considered a great blocking WR who has the mentality that fits into the Steelers style.

19) Atlanta Falcons – Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri-The Falcons need a lot of help in the secondary but signing Dunta Robinson allows them to consider other positions in the 1st round.  Weatherspoon has the type of intangibles that you can not teach and the type of player ever coach wants on their team.  He made a fan out of me at the Senior Bowl where he was clearly the vocal leader on the field.

20) Houston Texans – Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State-The Texans need a RB who they can count on contributing if not carry the load out of this draft.  Matthews is a bit of a reach at #20 but I don’t think the risk waiting to grab their back. Kyle Wilson and Earl Thomas

21) Cincinnati Bengals – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan- I could see the Bengals going with a TE, Safety or a DE with this pick.  Earl Thomas is the player I would select if I was the Bengals but I think they will see Graham as a better value with this pick.  If you believe that the Bengals are truly attracted to players with a criminal background then Carlos Dunlap could be the DE they are eyeing.

22) New England Patriots – Jared Odrick, DT – Penn State – This pick seems like it would come down to Odrick and Sergio Kindle as both players are expected to go in this range and both fit a big need.  History says that the Patriots would value the defensive lineman over a rush linebacker so Odrick is the pick.

23) Green Bay Packers – Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida- Pouncey continues to see his stock rise and would be a perfect fit for a Packers team that has to protect their franchise QB better in ’10.  Anthony Davis is another option because he has Top 10 upside but has too many question marks to pass on a sure thing like Pouncey.

24) Philadelphia Eagles – Earl Thomas, S, Texas-The Eagles are a team that often drafts lineman early regardless of their needs. However, they have been missing the presence of Brian Dawkins in the secondary and will be skipping to the podium to have a chance at Thomas. Keeping with the secondary theme, the Eagles could easily choose Kyle Wilson or Devin McCourty with this pick as well.

25) Baltimore Ravens – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State- The Ravens will be looking for a CB early in the draft and while Jermaine Gresham is a option here I think they will see value in the next few rounds at the TE position and choose to grab one the top CBs in the draft in Wilson.

26) Arizona Cardinals – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers – Davis is a big upside OT that is falling due to some poor off-season performances.  The Cardinals have gone from a Super Bowl contender to a team with a ton of holes in just one season.  There are a lot of different directions that they could go with this pick but Davis should be the highest rated available.

27) Dallas Cowboys – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State – The Cowboys don’t usually draft OL in the 1st round and even if Mike Iupatithis is the perfect of a fit, I just don’t see Jerry Jones selecting a guard in the 1st round.  Bryant has seen his stock drop more dramatically than anyone as he went from a lock in the Top 10 to falling almost out of the 1st round completely.  Since my mock doesn’t factor in trades Bryant falls to the Cowboys but on draft day I see someone trading up to grab him in the 17-22 range if indeed he does start to fall.  Even if Bryant is gone, I could see someone like Golden Tate or DeMaryius Thomas getting selected here.

28) San Diego Chargers – Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama–The Chargers will be looking for a running back but won’t find one worthy of the 28th pick.  Instead they will look to replace Jamal Williams with a prototypical 3-4 NT in Cody.

29)  New York Jets – Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU-The Jets are quickly looking like a Super Bowl contender assuming Rex Ryan can keep all the head cases in-line.  One of the few holes they have is with their pass rush making Hughes a great selection for them here.  A player like McCourty could be too good to pass on for Ryan if they have some pass rushers they like in the next few rounds.

30) Minnesota Vikings – Tim Tebow, QB, UF- The Vikings surprised many when they went with Percy Harvin who most people felt would drop to the 2nd round.  The Vikings is an ideal situation for Tim Tebow, perhaps the best scenario for him in regards to a chance for long-term success in the NFL.  Most people might say I am going out on a limb having Tebow going in the 1st round but I am convinced someone will take roll the dice on him on the first night of the draft.

31) Indianapolis Colts – Charles Brown, OT, USC-The Colts are one of these teams that tend to draft the best player available.  They could use more depth on the offensive line and while Mike Iupati is being mocked higher than Brown for most people, he is just too raw in pass coverage for the Colts.    Another option is Devin McCourty who probably has a higher draft grade than Brown at this point.

32) New Orleans Saints – Everson Griffen, DE, USC- Griffen is the type of playing that could easily go in the Top 20 or fall out of the 1st round.  The Saints have a need at DE and as things have fallen in this mock will have the luxury of choosing between Griffen and Carlos Dunlap who is another player that could go in the mid-1st round.

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  1. Jeremy’s Mock NFL Draft Update
  2. Jeremy’s NFL Mock Draft Update: Will Oakland cash in?
  3. Drew’s NFL Mock Draft: It went to hell after 10
  4. Jeremy’s NFL Mock Draft
  5. Final Mock NFL Draft Picks: Jeremy vs. Drew

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