POINSETTIA BOWL PREVIEW
December 22nd, 2008 by Daniel Freer
When the staff of Fantasy College Blitz began divying up the bowl game assignments, your humble scribe had his sights set on doing the preview for the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (Wednesday, December 23rd, ESPN, 8:00PM Eastern).
Like the geeky kid in class who would raise his hand so high that it poked holes in the ceiling, I had to have the teacher “call on me” for this one. The 2008 Poinsettia Bowl may be the most intriguing game during this bowl season not named the BCS National Championship Game.
Stinks that these teams get only $750,000 each to play this one. How about a bailout for these two programs, Washington DC?
The matchup between Boise State and TCU features the 9th and 11th ranked teams in the BCS, and two of the top three defenses in the nation…according to the Mullins FCB BlitzIndex 2008 Prebowl BlitzIndex Worksheet – Google Docs
Also, the game will be the last collegiate game for Broncos RB Ian Johnson (photo, thanks IconSMI), who caps off a sensational career filled with memorable plays (on and off the field) and many, many wins.
TCU (Head Coach: Gary Patterson)
Overshadowed a bit by their stellar defense, the Horned Frog offense is no pushover. One of the top rushing attacks in the nation, TCU boasts a deep corps of RBs, led by Joseph Turner, Ryan Christian, and Aaron Brown. The balanced Horned Frogs ground game produced five players who rushed for 400 yards or more.
Leading the attack on offense is QB Andy Dalton, who can throw the ball as well as he can run it…throwing for over 2000 yards and 11 TDs. Daltonn’s top target is WR Jimmy Young, who had over 900 yards receiving and 5 TDs this season. TE Shae Reagan is also a dependable receiver and an excellent blocker.
But, the strength of the Horned Frogs lies with their defense. Ranked in the top 10 nationally in many statistical categories, the heart of the TCU defense is their defensive line, led by consensus All-American DE Jerry Hughes.
An athletic DE who gobbles up QBs like late-night snacks, Hughes led the nation in QB sacks with 14 (TCU led the nation, as a team, in QB sacks)…and had 2 interceptions and 6 forced fumbles.
How good is TCUs defense? In a meeting earlier this season vs Oklahoma, they held the Sooners all-time record-setting offense to a season-low 34 points….20 under their season average. The Horned Frogs also held BYU to 7 points, and Mountain West Conference champ Utah to 13 points.
BOISE STATE (Head Coach: Chris Petersen)
The Broncos will not be happy campers coming into the Poinsettia Bowl…after getting snubbed for a BCS Bowl despite going 12-0 and finishing 9th in the BCS rankings. Look for Coach Petersen (35-3 overall record in three seasons) to rally BSU together in this game to prove the BCS doubters wrong.
The heart of the BSU offense, although he does not produce the rushing yards like he used to, is RB Ian Johnson. The senior RB ran for only 738 yards in 2008, but did score 12 TDs…and was Steve Tasker-esque on special teams. Johnson shared a lot of carries with Jeremy Avery, who had 4 rushing TDs this season.
The development of freshman QB Kellen Moore was another big factor in the Broncos perfect season. Moore threw for over 3200 yards and 25 TDs…mainly to top targets WRs Jeremy Childs (741 yards, 7 TDs) and Austin Pettis (502 yards, 9 TDs). The only negative on Moore is that he has tossed a few interceptions that have been returned for scores.
Boise State’s defense is no slouch, finishing second overall in the BlitzIndex rankings (just ahead of TCU). The Bronco defense took out the “offense” and “happy” parts of many of the WAC’s “offense happy” teams, and in its two games where they allowed over 30 points (vs Oregon and Nevada)…Oregon scored most of its points in the fourth quarter, and Nevada scored two defensive TDs.
While the Broncos defense may not have the overall athletic talent like TCU, they are a well-coached unit with few weaknesses…and its strength may be its secondary, led by CB Kyle Wilson…who not only makes big plays on defense, but also is a top punt returner nationally (2 punt return TDs).
A key advantage for the Broncos over the Horned Frogs is their kicking game, with sophomore PK Kyle Brotzman one of the most consistent kickers in the land.
INTERESTING:
TCU may have two losses, but finished #11 in the last BCS poll. This is a great finish for a non-BCS school with two losses…considering Hawaii last season went undefeated and finished only at #10 in the pre-bowl 2007 BCS rankings. Two reasons for TCUs high ranking: Its losses were to #1 Oklahoma and #6 Utah (and should have beat Utah if not for 2 missed chip-shot FGs late in that game). Also, the Mountain West Conference was quite strong this season; better than some of the BCS level conferences.
As mentioned earlier, Boise State head coach Chris Petersen has amassed a 35-3 record in his three seasons as head coach of the Broncos. A win over TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl would put Petersen at 36 wins…an average of 12 wins per season. No other coach in the history of college football has had such a great career start, and a few more great seasons he should surpass leaders in career winning percentage like Nebraska’s Tom Osborne and legendary Notre Dame coach Knute Rockne. Also, Petersen has never lost a home game in Boise, and the Broncos (under three different coaches) have lost only one regular season home game in this millenium.
IN SUMMATION:
This will be a close, low-scoring game, in which the defenses should dominate. However, if this game gets into the twenties for either team, this will favor Boise State…who is a little more proficient on offense. Also, if this game comes down to FGs, advantage goes also to Boise State with PK Brotzman.
TCUs best chance to win will be to control the ball on the ground, keeping the Boise State offense off the field. The fewer possessions the Broncos offense has…the fewer chances the Broncos have in pulling off something wild (never forget the 2007 Fiesta Bowl…our photo above is Ian Johnson’s game-winning two-point score off the Statue of Liberty play). In last year’s Hawaii Bowl, East Carolina demonstrated how to pull off a rare win against Boise State….and TCU needs a similar performance.
PREDICTION:
BOISE STATE 20 TCU 17
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