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Power I: Halfway Marks
By Drew Smith | October 8, 2008
We now have made it to the half way mark of the season and it is time to recap the top RBs year-to-date. I will go over the Top 10 backs thus far according to the standard scoring system and discuss the how’s and why’s of their successes and whether they will be able to finish the season strong.
Evan Royster, Penn State: I had Royster ranked 26th in the final pre-season ranking which was by far higher than most other experts but not high enough thus far as he has put up 84-659-8 stats. I am sort of torn in how to predict the rest of the season because thus far Royster has put up his stats against all weak defenses. However because the games have been blow outs for Penn State it has allowed them to give carries to plenty of other players. So the question is, will Royster see an increased work-load now that the schedule is getting tougher because the games will be closer or will his work-load remain about the same but without as much success? My gut says that his workload will increase to help off-set the decrease in YPC which will allow him to finish in the Top 12 range.
Donald Brown, UConn: Brown has rushed for 1067 yards and 12 TDs thus far in the season and had arguable reached numbers that most people would have been happy getting for the full season when drafting him. He is someone that tabbed as a sleeper last season but stuck in the dreaded RBBC situation prevented him from breaking out in 2007. Heading into this season a repeat of the ‘07 season was expected until last year’s leading rushing Andre Dixon got injured before the season and the rest is history. Brown had some monster games against some weak OOC teams to pad his stats a bit but any back getting 30 carries a game is a good bet to continue to perform so expect to see Brown finish the season in the Top 5.
Javon Ringer, Michigan State: Ringer was someone I had rated higher than most people as I have been a big fan of his talent for a while. Although I had him ranked 11th I wanted to have him even higher but couldn’t justify the risk considering the Spartans coaching staff always splitting the carries. Well just like we saw with Kevin Smith at UCF in ‘07, the coaching staff broke away from past trends and are just feeding the ball to Ringer an astonishing 35+ times a game which puts him at 212-966-12 on the season. The same thing about Brown can be said about Ringer in that while his schedule gets tougher will slow his overall stats down anyone getting the ball that much is going to continue to be a great fantasy pick. Look for Ringer to finish in the Top 5.
MiQuale Lewis, Ball State: While Brown and Ringer are two guys before the season you could see as Top 5 backs if you knew they would not split carries, no one expected Lewis under any circumstances to be doing this well. Ball State’s leading rusher last year had 531 yards and they returned Nate Davis at QB so where did this running game come from? Lewis is currently at 143-802-12 for the season and has seen his rushing attempts continue to increase as the coaching staff has gain confidence in him. Unlike Brown and Ringer, the schedule does not get harder and Lewis has a legitimate chance to finish as the Top Fantasy Back.
Tyrell Fenroy, UL Lafayette: I dubbed Fenroy as one of the safest picks in the draft with a final pre-season ranking of 25th with TDs being the major thing holding him back. Well TDs hasn’t been a problem thus far as he has scored 10 times already while accumulating 750 yards rushing. The crazy thing about this is that Fenroy did little in the first 3 games and has pretty much put up Top 5 overall RB stats in three games. Fenroy has some ground to make up to pass Brown and Ringer but with the weak defenses of the Sun Belt on the schedule it now appear Fenroy will be vying to finish the season as the top fantasy back.
Derrick Washington, Missouri: The problem I had with Washington heading into the season was the fact that he would be splitting carries and thus far that has been true. He is averaging only 11 carries a game plus a few catches to give him a 67-500-10 rushing line with 9-92-2 receiving. Washington has scored 2+ TDs in each game this season making him one of the most consistent fantasy back YTD. However when the season ends I do not see Washington as a top 10 back because it is expecting too much from a back who is only getting only 11 carries once the conference schedule kicks in.
Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State: Hunter has started out the season very nicely on his way to 101-708-8 by taking advantage of wide-open space against weak defenses. Like Washington from Missouri I expect to see Hunter’s stats to drop off now that the Cowboys are entering conference portion of the schedule and isn’t someone I expect to see in the Top 15 at the end of the season.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia: Moreno was quietly having a Top 5 RB season before running into the buzz saw called Alabama’s rush defense. His rushing yards is what is currently holding back has he is sitting at 78-489-10 on the season. Moreno is going to continue to see the endzone which will keep him in the Top 10 and with any sort of rushing yard increase will once again see him pushing the Top 5 by the end of the season.
Shonn Greene, Iowa: The funny thing about Greene is that I was all over the Hawkeyes rushing attack this year as the offensive line is one of the tops in the country. The problem was that Greene wasn’t on the team and they had a bunch of unproven backs competing for the job. Well right before the season starts, Greene pops back on the team and hasn’t looked back running behind that O-Line. He will continue to be consistent performer and despite a few ‘off’ games should find himself in the 12-18 range when the season ends. Greene currently has 822 yards and 5 TDs.
Darren Fletcher, Southern Miss: Fletcher has put very good overall stats thus far with 112-680-4 rushing with another 166 yards and 1 TD receiving. The problem is that he is a fantasy nightmare with 2 great games and 3 below average games. The schedule is not difficult for the remaining of the season which should allow Fletcher to easily finish in the Top 10 and with a little more consistency make a run for Top 5.
Topics: College Football, Drew Smith, Power I, Running Back |
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