Power I: Week 11 Fantasy Running Back Start-Sit

November 12th, 2009 by Drew Smith

Pittsburgh Panthers RB Dion Lewis (Icon SMI)

Ryan Williams – VaTech at Maryland
Dion Lewis – Pitt vs. Notre Dame (ND defense is just average, don’t be scared off by the name)
Jacquizz Rodgers – Oreg St vs. Wash
Darius Marshall – Marsh vs. Southern Miss
Ryan Matthews – Fresno at Nevada (is now the #1 fantasy RB)
Toby Gerhart – Stanford vs. USC (tough matchup for Gerhart but still a starter)
Mark Ingram – Alabama vs. Miss St
Noel Devine – WVU at Cincy (questionable with ankle injury, risky start this week)
Lance Dunbar – North Texas at FIU
Bernard Pierce – Temple at Akron

The Perm-Starters list lost a great one as Jahvid Best is most likely done for the season after a gruesome concussion last week. Even if Best gets back on the field this year I expect to see a light workload going down the stretch.

Stat of the Week: Over the last 7 weeks…or from Week 4 until this past week, the top three fantasy RBs are Bernard Pierce, Lance Dunbar and Donald Buckram. All three of these players were undrafted in just about every league out there. Both Pierce and Dunbar were players I highlighted early enough to pick up, whereas Buckram blew up before I could highlight him. There are always surprises every year but not with this type of impact…at least not from the running back position. This year is a perfect example as to why you must continue to manage your roster throughout the season–not to fall in love with players in August.

Fave plays for Week Four

Chad Spann, Northern Illinois vs. Ball State – Spann did plenty of damage last week despite only getting 11 carries as he rushed for 174yards and 2 TDs. This week the game should be closer allowing Spann to get back to his 20+ carries and with Ball State as the opponent he should be in for another big game.
Jonathan Dwyer, GT at Duke – Dwyer has topped 20 carries now for 4 straight games and this week faces a Duke team that won’t be able to slow down the Georgia Tech running game. Dwyer is set for another big game especially if the Duke offense can keep the game somewhat close.
CJ Spiller, Clemson at NC State – Is there a defense worse in the ACC than FSU? A strong argument could be made for NC State as being worse than FSU, if that is even possible. Regardless, the point is, the Wolfpack are horrible on the defensive side of the ball and I expect another shoot-out with Spiller once again touching the ball 20+ times. It might be too much to ask for another 37point week from Spiller but it isn’t out of the question.
Donald Buckram UTEP at SMU – Buckram has been on fire over the second half of the season and is technically a Perm-Starter at this point. This week he faces a SMU team that is somewhat under-rated on the defensive side of the ball. Assuming Mike Price continues to feed Buckram the ball 25+ times, it should be another huge game for him this week.
Andre Anderson Tulane at Rice – Anderson has been a bust this season as the QB situation at Tulane is so bad that teams are just stacking the line. However if you have Anderson on your team, this could be the week you’ve been waiting for. Rice is one of the worse defenses in the nation and it won’t matter if they put 14 in the box to stop Anderson, he should still be able to run all over them. If you have Anderson he is almost a certain start unless your team is stacked with Perm-Starters.
Daniel Thomas – K-State vs. Missouri – Thomas has quietly put together a very solid season and shows fair consistency over the last 4 games. This week he gets to face a Missouri team that has been struggling all season. Their defense is below average and their offense is not good enough to take K-State out of their running game. I expect another 20+ carry week in which Thomas breaks 100 yards with at least a touchdown.
Robert Turbin – Utah State vs. San Jose St – Turbin is the classic good player on a bad team which means he is going to be inconsistent on a weekly basis. However this week against San Jose should be a week in which he really blows up as San Jose comes in ranked 119th against the rush giving up 277 yards per game on the ground. Turbin is someone you want to start if you have him.

Super sleeper

Jonathan Davis, UCF vs. Houston – Ok this is might be more than a super-sleeper…this is more like “I need a RB and don’t see anything good on the waiver wire” sleeper. If this is the case then I recommend taking a flyer on Davis as he has more upside than your typical waiver wire scrap-heap guy. Davis played for Brynn Harvey last week against Texas and actually ran pretty decently. He expects to see plenty of action again this week against Houston which has the 114th ranked rush defense giving up 220 yards per game. Davis was a big-time high school player that would have been one of the top LB recruits if he was 5inches taller. I expect things to play out as the following: Davis and Harvey will split carries early with George O’Leary riding the hot hand after that. If Davis is that hot hand then he could be in for a very solid game.

VICIOUS PINE

LaMichael James, Oregon vs. Arizona State – James has been a very solid performer over most of the season but this week faces an Arizona State team ranked 6th against the rush. Although I think the return of LaGarrette Blount this will get a lot of TV time, I don’t see him coming in and taking away all of James’ carries. However even if he takes 8 carries this week- with the tough run defense of Arizona, I don’t expect James to have a very good game. It is best to sit him if you have other decent options.

Jake Sharp, Kansas vs. Nebraska – Sharp has declared himself 100% healthy this week and it couldn’t come at a better time for a Kansas team that has really struggled offensively down the stretch with a running attack that desperately needs him. However, don’t let this news fool you into thinking Sharp is a good start this week. The Jayhawks offense is a wreck and the Cornhuskers defense is the best in the nation. Don’t buy the hype– leave Sharp on the bench until the Kansas offense shows it is back on track.

***If you have any questions feel free to post the question on the forums or you can always email me at drew@fantasycollegeblitz.com.

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