SEC Preview: Kentucky Wildcats
July 6th, 2008 by Chris Pendley
After two 8-5 season in a row – highlighted by two bowl wins, both in the Music City Bowl – this shapes up to be a harsh offensive season for the Wildcats. They lose virtually everyone from their 36.5 ppg offense, returning only three guys on the line and the second-best name in the SEC, Dicky Lyons, Jr. (Captain Munnerlyn is the current best SEC name, with Vince Vance coming in 3rd.)
Rich Brooks and his air attack return for the 6th season at Kentucky, along with OC Joker Phillips. Steve Brown returns for the 2nd season as the DC, having previously served as the DB coach. The last two years have been the most successful years in a while in Lexington, so Brooks and Phillips likely have as long as they want to stay here. However, there could be some heartache this season, even though it won’t be their fault.
Even though Mike Hartline is still around as the backup QB from the Woodson era, he’s likely still the backup QB – but this time it’s to Curtis Pulley. Pulley should produce pretty decent numbers (especially in Kentucky’s weak first month) and is able to bring more mobility to the position than Woodson. It’s a longshot for Pulley to even come close to putting up the numbers that Woodson did, especially with as much talent being lost at the skill positions. Pulley is certainly worth paying attention to, but shouldn’t be drafted except in deeper formats as a backup. Since Pulley could turn out to be a quality fantasy QB, keep him in mind as a late round sleeper.
While Andre Dixon is gone, expect Tony Dixon and Derrick Locke to pick up most of the slack. Locke is the burner of the two (4.21 40-yard dash), so he’s the long-distance threat. Dixon should be the back who sees the most downs. Both guys should get a little bit of a boost from the passing game. The million-dollar question, of course, is which guy would be useful from a fantasy perspective. Neither guy stands much of a shot of getting the magical 1,000 yards (or even 10 TDs) but 800/8 isn’t out of the question for either. It will likely be Dixon and then Locke in terms of usefulness. While Dixon should get his yardage on a relatively consistent basis, Locke could turn in a few big weeks to get most of his.
For the record, Dicky Lyons, Jr. is a senior this year. He’s also the only returning receiver who was in the top 5 in receptions last year, so there will be some growing pains in the WR corps. The other guys worth knowing are: Anthony Mosley, Kyrus Lanxter, and E.J. Fields. TE TC Drake saw very limited action in the passing game last season, but could see increased action. Brooks’ offense does use the TE a fair amount, although expecting a Jacob Tamme type performance from Drake is a reach. Picking one of Mosley, Lanxter and Fields to succeed would be no better than picking names out of a hat. None of them have any game experience to speak of, so it’s best to avoid them in drafts. Instead, watch UK early and see who ends up looking legit.
Kentucky couldn’t sack anyone or stop anyone last year; don’t expect that to change. They can still pick people off – and might get better at that – but a one-dimensional defense is asking for trouble year-to-year. Couple that with losing their top KR and PR and it’s not worth thinking about Kentucky as a viable defensive option.
K Lones Seiber, on the other hand, is pretty solid. Don’t expect the 54 XP attempts like he had last year, but he could see an uptick in FG attempts. He’s worth drafting in deeper leagues.
Summary
This isn’t last year’s Kentucky; there are at best two guaranteed producers on this Wildcat team. Sure, it’s possible that Kentucky could turn into a fantasy goldmine, but don’t take that chance with more than one guy on this team, and be warned that’s a low-percentage chance. Stick to Dicky and Seiber and see what happens.
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