Starting with Phil Steele’s 2010 projected defense rankings, but I ranked team rush D and team pass D separately, then used my distance theorem to come up with our first fantasy focused total defense ranking.

Can UCF defense help knock off NC State and Kansas State in 2010? We feel confident the Knights can help your fantasy season. (Icon SMI)

I then overlaid total rank of opponent OLs to be faced during the season, which led to some big surprises for your draft prep – several of the top projected Ds also face the nation’s worst OLs to amplify their badassitude.

Teams like Iowa (10), North Carolina (1, pre-sanctions?), Miami (FL) (4), Alabama (8), and Florida (6) are sure to be among the 1st Ds off the board on draft day, but may end up producing similar numbers to those 2nd-tier defenses with easier schedules like Southern Miss (25), UCF (40) or surprising Kent State (46) when it’s all said and done.

Below are the rankings, then the attachment illustrates the full power of this Death Star with conference, division, AQ status (to help you sort if playing AQ only) and all the individual variables discussed above. I bolded the Top 12 in each category (Top 10%) and italicized the bottom 10%.

Fantasy College Blitz Defense 2010

RANK
1    UNC
2    TEXAS
3    OKLAHOMA
4    MIAMI
5    OHIO STATE
6    FLORIDA
7    USC
8    ALABAMA
9    TCU
10    IOWA
11    NEBRASKA
12    BOISE STATE
13    PENN STATE
14    SOUTH CAROLINA
15    OREGON
16    WEST VIRGINIA
17    MISSISSIPPI ST
18    LSU
19    MISSISSIPPI
20    PITTSBURGH
21    VIRGINIA TECH
22    NOTRE DAME
23    FLORIDA STATE
24    AUBURN

25    SOUTHERN MISS Read the rest of this entry →

We turn statistician extraordinaire Matt Ryan loose on any stat he can find for our Hacking series – he cites the source, then he puts the data in a rear naked choke and twists it into something useful for fantasy college football.

Colin Kaepernick - due for a fall if his offensive line fails to gel? (Icon SMI)

Today I am starting with Phil Steele’s 2010 projected SOS rankings (pg 317), then I overlaid the research I did on the Draft Talent Lost. It tracks the top 300 NFL 2010 prospects and about 350 additional undrafted rookies who had an invite to an NFL camp.

The logic here can best be illustrated by my beloved Tennessee Vols: Even though they are breaking in an entirely new OL, the chart says they lost 3 NFL-caliber O-Linemen. They had 2 walk-on starters in 2009 who were not good enough to get an invite to camp with any team, so presumably these 2 will be easier to replace, or at very least there will not be a talent drop-off from the guys who do step up in their stead.

Ive taken a quick breakdown and identified some teams without a lot of returning OL starts that also did not have many (if any) NFL-quality O-Lineman holding back any youngsters last season. These teams appear at a glance to not only lack experience but also quality along the OL and may cause their skill guys to under preform. I will look on the flipside also to find potential values:

Read the rest of this entry →