Texas Bowl Preview

December 30th, 2009 by James Lawrence

Missouri Logo 2007 was a noteworthy year for the Texas Bowl, as it was the only year a team from Texas has participated in this Houston classic with a deep history spanning four years. That year, TCU defeated Houston 20-13 in the only game (of the three so far) that wasn’t a complete blowout. So yeah, Texas Bowl. Good times. Let’s meet the 2009 participants.

Missouri

The Missouri Tigers were expected to suck hard after losing Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and pretty much everybody except Derrick Washington from the 2008 offense. I took Illinois in week 1 of my pick’em league and was shocked as Missouri not only won the game, but did so a lot more comfortably than any of Daniel’s squads did (2009 ended up being a surprising year for both of those teams, in very different ways). A tough stretch in October brought this team down to more of the level we might have expected in a rebuilding year, although certainly a loss to Robert Griffin-less Baylor was a huge surprise. Since falling to 5-4, the Tigers have won their last three although against questionable opposition.

Gabbert isn’t exactly doing what Chase Daniel did his last two seasons, but he is completing 60% of his passes to the tune of 275 ypg and a 23-7 ratio to lead the #12 passing offense in the NCAA. By far his favorite target has been Danario Alexander, who averages 137 ypg receiving and has caught 13 touchdowns. Mizzou’s next-leading receiver, Jared Perry, has about half those totals.

Defensively Missouri is very average in both scoring and yardage defense, and with this offense they’ll take that. Sean Weatherspoon is the standout middle linebacker who has made first team all-conference in two consecutive seasons, and he’ll obviously be a big factor in trying to defend Navy’s triple option.

If it comes down to it, kicker Grant Ressel was first-team all conference in a league with some pretty good kickers, making an outstanding 24 of 25 FG tries and all 38 of his PATs. But unlike during the Maclin years, Missouri does not have a touchdown from a kickoff return nor from a punt return.

Navy

Two years after his departure, Navy is still running Paul Johnson’s base offense with great results. The Midshipment started the season with a trip to Ohio State and they were in position to send the game to overtime when Ricky Dobbs threw an interception on the pivotal two-point conversion which was returned for a Buckeye score in a 31-27 loss. At the time, I felt like the Midshipment should have run the midline option as a called QB iso as the Buckeyes hadn’t shown any ability to stop this play all game. In overtime, with offensive possessions starting at the 25 and with this offense… who knows? Certainly not us, and with a tough opening schedule that also included Pitt, Navy started out 1-2. Since then, the Middies have won eight of ten including a sweep of the Commander in Chief’s trophy, a win over ACC foe Wake Forest, and a huge win over Notre Dame, the program’s second victory over the Irish in three seasons.

The Midshipment are rather the opposite of the Tigers, with the nation’s #4 rushing offense (272 ypg) and all the way down at #120, the passing offense. Scoring is average at #60, but with the 6th-highest time of possession in the country, the effect of this is better than you might expect. The Middies rank #21 in scoring defense, and part of that can be attributed to just keeping the ball away from the other team.

QB Ricky Dobbs is the focal point of this offense. As its leading rusher, he keeps on just under half of the plays and has scored 24 of its 40 rushing TDs. Vince Murray is his top choice for the give, carrying for about 13 attempts a game and 71 yards. Marcus Curry and Alexander Teich round out the heart of the running attack, carrying about 6 times per game apiece for another 80 yards in all.

The 21st-ranked scoring defense is anchored by a pair of senior linebackers, with Ross Pospisil leading the team with 98 tackles. Unfortunately for this matchup, the Midshipmen are a little better against the run (#38) than they are against the pass (#47 yards, #52 efficiency) and Missouri is going to throw the ball a lot. The team has picked off 11 passes this season, just about average.

What to Expect

Honestly I’m not sure what to expect here. My suspicion is that Missouri will have difficulty with the triple option, as many teams do, but that Navy will have difficulty against Missouri’s spread passing attack as they’re not particularly dominant up front to produce the kind of game Nebraska did against Mizzou, nor do they have five or six good DBs where they can just absorb the Tigers’ four receiver sets.

As with many Navy games against solid offenses, the key factor here may simply be the Midshipmen’s ability to play keep-away, as they did so successfully against Notre Dame (at least for three quarters).

Pick: Tossup. Let’s say Missouri… go-go conference homerism!

Share the college football love: