Building upon my Minimalist theme for 2010 (in everything but quality), I introduce to you my early August look at the running back position for fantasy college football. Compared to the excellent project of our Cheatsheet Customizer from Drew Smith and Tim Dady, I list here some things you will NOT see in my Minimalist project:

One of Oregon State Jacquizz Rodgers 34 career TDs - can he do that in 2010 alone? (IconSMI)

RB by committee (RBBC) – I have long held that why should I draft an average-plus talent who shares carries above an average talent who will likely be the main guy. I will post my RBBC to watch later since there are some quality players and programs involved (e.g., Utah, Texas) that merit monitoring over the course of the next couple weeks.

“Achtung” list – Guys I just do not trust and should be handled with care (again, a future post).  I got close to 100 names here all of whom I would trust on my lineup, so I will just leave guys off here so as to focus on the valuable RBs.

Trust your preparation!

This was driven home to me a couple months back while golfing – I questioned my putt while in the stance, and of course I over-corrected and missed the par. I repeated the mantra as I approached the rest of the greens and performed much better. Very easy to apply this concept to many tasks, but focusing on fantasy college football here means to appreciate what is on the list, not what is absent.

After the jump, I will break out my RBs by tiers of expected performance (with rankings within the cohort less a concern) with important backups.

PS – after I post the WR list later this week, I will put all my Minimalist list onto one sheet for you.

TIER ONE (1500+ and 15+TD expectations)

Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State - my #1 due to dual-threat ability and TD excellence. 2000y-20TD is legit target.
Dion Lewis, Pitt – a very special back playing for a coach that leans on his RBs.
Vai Taua, Nevada - not sure he is my #3, but belongs near the top of any 2010 list
Shane Vereen, Cal - Matt Ryan and I discussed the Cal system at length, and we agreed there is usually a set depth chart but the #2 often leechs yards and TDs, with rare occassions (JJ Arrington, Echimandu) where there was a true fantasy stud. I remember the first time I saw Vereen he reminded me of a quicker, smaller Emmitt Smith. My “contextual vision” is that Vereen will be the stud.
Lance Dunbar, North Texas – entire OL returns so he is poised to abuse the Sun Belt again.
Donald Buckram, UTEP – I think he can do it again in 2010, so very consistent with two games over 300 yds from scrimmage.
Daniel Thomas, Kansas State - just learning the position on the fly in 2009, the former QB also just moved into my top tier.
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TIER TWO (1500-10)

Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State – I want to believe his return to health plus the addition of OC Dana Holgerson means a top tier kind of year, but the grand total of 4 offensive starters returning will hold him back. 2009 Charles Sims-like numbers might squeak him up to Tier One, especially if Hunter remains healthy.
Mark Ingram, Alabama - I fear that the emergence of Trent Richardson will hold him back from a 2000-20 year like 2009′s Heisman Trophy season. Regardless, see where I have him slotted as the main cog in an offense returning all starters.
John Clay, Wisconsin – big fella knows how to get to the endzone, and like Bama lots of returning starters all along the offense to give you more confidence with this Badger.
Noel Devine, West Virginia – big plays have never been a problem for Devine, but consistency has. I will call the 1500 YFS a lock, but with TDs going up from 4 to 14 last year I am expecting a settle to the mean holding him back from superstardom. BUT, with new skill position starters all around him would you be surprised to see 2000-20 with a couple kick return TDs? That potential is why he is in the second group and not the third.
DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma – health has always been Murray’s issue, got to like the way the Sooners played last year despite all the injuries. Murray and Landry Jones likely the most beneficiaries of the resurgence.
Ryan Williams, Virgina Tech – Yes, Darren Evans returns, but I think there are plenty of yards and TD spikes to go around. While they may get kicked off the national title stage in Week One against Boise, the rest of the schedule can be handled to finish up a strong season.
Evan Royster, Penn State – Royster has yet to be drafted in this position in my experience this preseason, I am pretty sure that Royster will carry the load for the Nittanys until QB Newsome finds his groove. And then likely even more carries as Royster sets up to be Penn State’s all-time leading rusher.
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TIER THREE (1000-10)
Derrick Washington, Missouri – senior captain in an expolsive offense with new WRs all around.
Montel Harris, Boston College - coming off 300+ carries, usually predicts a pullback in stats due to wear and tear.
Baron Batch, Texas Tech – safest Red Raider pick with new coach Tommy Tuberville.
Bryce Beall, Houston – with the Sims suspension, Beall should ring up lots of stats.
Mario Fannin, Auburn - my appreciation of his talent should be known to long-time readers. I do not expect ben Tate numbers, but I would expect him to be an RB2 in most leagues, definitely an RB3
Bernard Pierce, Temple - Temple is pushing Pierce as a Heisman contender, a sure sign of the Apocalypse moreso than the Cardinal Climax. Temple looks to be the class of the MAC, my how times have changed.
Jordan Todman, UConn
Anthony Allen, Georgia Tech – not the bruiser of Jonathan Dwyer mold, but adds speed. I do not expect the same digits.
Chad Spann, Northern Illinois – nice bio here illustrates this 22-year-old’s maturity, might be a tier low since he was fifth in the nation in TD last season.
LaMichael James, Oregon - suspended for first game, also seems that many are downgrading Oregon in fantasy due to the Masoli incident.
Waushaun Ealey, Georgia – lots of back in Athens, but easily the most talented.
Roy Helu Jr., Nebraska – more talented than this, but Rex Burkhead will strip carries.
Sam McGuffie, Rice – given the other Owl talent, I expect 25 touces a game. What he can do with that is another question but there is upside potential.
Morgan Williams, Toledo - I am digging the Rockets in 2010, I admit though I tend to adopt one MAC team a year to root for. Remember in 2008 he had 1010 yards.
Alexander Robinson, Iowa -
Martin Ward, Marshall – nice recent trend of strong Herd RBs for us fantasy folks.
Charles Clay, Tulsa – played hurt most of 2009 for a down year for the Golden Hurricane, reports have him healthy so I like him to rebound to 2008 numbers
Da’Rell Scott, Maryland - to give you an idea how different my outlook is on Scott, he wasn’t selected in the recent CFFI All-FBS Mock draft of 11 owners and 16 rounds. This is NFL talent playing for an offensive genius with a veteran line, so stash Scott away as a value pick in the very tough ACC.
MiQuale Lewis, Ball State - #5 rusher in 2008, but 2009 was new coach and new QB that sacked his numbers. I expect a nice rebound from a likely forgotten source.
Alfred Morriss, FAU - I am not feeling a return to his big 2009, so he has been overdrafted in my opinion.
Jeff Demps, Florida – like Noel Devine without the touches.
Mike Ball, Nevada – you can do a lot worse than the #2 RB in the Pistol in Reno.
Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina – yes, the siren call of a talented big RB freshman toting it for Steve Spurrier has my attention. Drew has him at #45 but has admitted to me that he can move up based on camp reports.
Robbie Rouse, Fresno State – will not just step in and make Ryan Mathews like performances.
Stepfan Taylor, Stanford - will not just step in and make Toby Gerhart like performances. I would expect much more passing with a more mature QB Andrew Luck and Coach Harbaugh.

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TIER FOUR (Great fantasy RB3 or RB4 with upside)

Isaiah Pead, Cincinnati
Derrick Locke, Kentucky
Vince Murray, Navy
Jared Hassin, Akron
Jared Tew, Air Force -
Chris Polk, Washington
Michael Smith – Utah State
Desmond Scott, Duke
Matthew Tucker, TCU
Victor Anderson, Louisville
Alvester Alexander, Wyoming – lots of upside with this soph
JJ Luigi, BYU – beneficiary of the Harvey Unga event.
Ed Martinek, Rutgers – another easy schedule
Frank Goodin, Louisiana-Monroe
Brandon Bolden, Mississippi – I liked him as a deep sleeper before Masoli showed up, his addition can only help.
Bobby Rainey, Western Kentucky – not my #9 ranked RB
Jewel Hampton, Iowa – UPDATE: suspended for the opener
Aaron Winchester, Western Michigan – potential upside for this Bronco
Lennon Creer, Louisiana Tech – RB for Tony Franklin is worth a look, just not as much as the QB
Jonathan Davis, UCF – Brynn Harvey still nursing an injury, Knights prepared to progress without him.

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Waiting for orders/Handcuffs

Trent Richardson – BAMA
Stephon Green – Penn State
Onterrio McCaleb – Auburn
Mike Dyer – Auburn
Lache Seastrunk – Oregon
CoVaughn Doboskie-Johnson, Cal
Matt Brown, Temple – mighty-mite played large in Pierce’s absence last season.

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Did it once…
Eugene Jarvis, Kent State – 6th year of eligibility, but return from kidney issues can be delicate.
Josh Adams, Wake Forest – 1k rusher in his freshman year, but quiet the last two. New QB with this veteran RB for a great coach is a good mix.
Philip Tanner, MT – injured for most of 2009, but 16 TD in 2008.
Deonte Jackson, Idaho – as a 2007 freshman he rocked it for 1300 yfs and 7TD.
Darren Evans, Virginia Tech – may have been a first round fantasy guy in many drafts in 2009, now he has to share the spotlight with Ryan Williams.

You want sleepers? see my article from Sunday.

Related posts:

1. Vince’s Minimalist QB Cheatsheet: A New Paradigm
2. Vince’s Minimalist Cheat Sheet: The new paradigm
3. Minimalist Cheatsheet (All-FBS) v3
4. 2011 Minimalist Cheatsheet (All-FBS) v2 UPDATED
5. 2011 Minimalist Cheatsheet (all-FBS)

Tags: Cheatsheet, RB