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WAC Preview: New Mexico State Aggies
By Kevan Lee | July 9, 2008
The Air Raid offense is the encyclopedia salesman of football strategy, yet New Mexico State and head coach Hal Mumme are intent on hawking their version of Worldbook Britannica to the rest of the WAC.
Thus far, it has been incredibly unsuccessful. There are better, more dependable ways of scoring points, but Mumme and the offensive coordinator duo of Gary Goff and Matt Mumme (nepotism!) continue to believe in their eclectic style of play.
The Aggies only averaged 24 points per game last season and failed to score more than 20 in six games. Certainly, their scheme is designed for big plays and big stats, but until recently, NMSU has simply not had good enough players to make the system work effectively.
If the Aggies and the Air Raid stand any chance of moderate success, the responsibility will be entirely on Chase Holbrook. The senior quarterback had a solid sophomore year that he followed up with a injury-laden junior season equivalent to a giant step backward…resulting in an interception. Turnovers were Holbrook’s downfall; he threw 18 picks, which was twice the number he had in the season prior. Might he be in store for a 36-INT year this season?
Certainly, Holbrook has the talent to succeed. He will be a consensus preseason all-WAC member, and many experts expect him to regain his stellar sophomore form. His play that year was outstanding for a young quarterback (over 4,500 yards and 34 touchdowns), so the potential for a great senior season is there. Holbrook is one of the WAC’s elder statesmen, and he is one of the few proven quarterbacks who will be under center this fall.
Expect Holbrook to bounce back slightly from his bummer of an ‘07. At the same time, don’t expect the second coming of Timmy Chang. On a short list of fantasy WAC quarterbacks, Holbrook merits consideration, but his spotty history also merits trepidation.
A big reason for Holbrook’s occasionally gaudy numbers is the design of the pass-happy Air Raid offense, so New Mexico State receivers should stand to benefit, too. The problem is that the Aggies trot out so many different pass catchers that the statistical impact is a rather benign one (coincidentally, the NMSU season highlight tape was titled “Rather Benign Impact”).
If a fantasy owner is bold enough to test the muddled waters of the Aggies’ receiving corps, Chris Williams would be a great place to start. Williams has had double-digit touchdowns in each of the past two years, and the senior should be a favorite target for Holbrook. If he can remain on the field (Williams missed New Mexico State’s last five games), he will be a wise pick-up.
His fellow receivers will have a chance to shine, too, but good luck picking one over another. A group that includes A.J. Harris, Kenneth Buckley, and Julius Fleming among others is a roulette wheel of possibilities. keep an eye on freshman LaVorick Williams too. One may rise up to be worth a fantasy selection, so it may pay to keep a close eye on their progress.
With so many receivers to throw the ball to, how does anyone find the time to run the ball? Hal Mumme must wonder the same thing. A founding principle of the Air Raid offense appears to be its seething hatred of the ground game. Did NMSU backs know this when they signed their letters of intent?
The black sheep running backs include returners Tonny Glynn and Jeremiah Williams and a couple of junior college transfers. Hope they bring a Sudoku on gameday.
Kyle Hughes expects to be a busy man. If the Aggie offense is half as productive as it should be, Hughes will have plenty of placekicking opportunities. He could be a serious fantasy option, but the fact that he has never kicked in Division I-A before makes matters a little risky.
Perhaps part of the reason why Mumme has yet to shake his ancient offense is that it works so well in practice. Going up against the Aggie defense in recent years would make anyone look good, as every WAC school can attest. NMSU hopes that changes this season.
New coordinator Joe Lee Dunn brings an aggressive style of defense to the Aggies, and if it proves effective, it could mean a few extra wins for the program. That is a big “if,” though. Dunn’s 3-3-5 scheme will be fun to watch, but the constant blitzing and shifting will most certainly leave the “D” susceptible to big plays (see Tigers, Memphis 2006). On that note, fantasy owners might want to monitor NMSU opponents for potentially good matchups.
Dunn has few of the players necessary to spark a defensive resurrection. Safety Derrick Richardson is the leader of the secondary, but he is too often the exception when it comes to dependable defensive play. Dunn may find himself blitzing more often than he would like early in the year, and late in the year, he may find himself wishing he had screened his resume calls better.
Conclusion
The reasons to be excited for New Mexico State football are obvious: they score points and don’t play defense. It’s like an NBA game on FieldTurf! No wonder greedy-eyed fantasy owners worship at the temple of the Air Raid offense.
Excitement has failed to translate into victories, though. New Mexico State has not gone to a bowl game in nearly fifty years, and in order to break the shneid this season, they need to be significantly better than they were last year. The potential is there, especially with senior leadership at the quarterback position. In the meantime, fantasy owners should appreciate Mumme’s backward-thinking passing circus and take advantage of players like Holbrook and Williams.
Kevan Lee runs a website for Boise State football called One Bronco Nation Under God (OBNUG). For the best Bronco news, humor, and commentary, visit www.obnug.com.
Topics: College Football, Kevan Lee, Preview, WAC |
September 26th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
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