2009 College Fantasy RB Sleepers/Busts
August 9th, 2009 by Drew Smith
Jahvid Best, RB for California Golden Bears (thanks Icon SMI)
The terms sleepers and busts has to be one of the most over-used term in fantasy sports these days. With information available through just a few clicks of the mouse, the true ‘sleeper’ no longer exists. The term ‘bust’ isn’t much better because it implies that the player will be horrible and not worthy of being drafted. In reality, if Jahvid Best ends up being the 8th best RB (which is still great) he will be considered a bust. Does that mean you shouldn’t draft him if he fell in your draft for some reason?
With all that said I like to think of players with the terms ‘over-rated’ and ‘under-rated’. Eugene Jarvis is a RB that I believe is under-rated for example. This means, I expect that you will get more from Jarvis than the spot required to select him. Another way of saying this is; you can get the 6th best RB stats from Jarvis even though you won’t have to select him as the 6th RB in most leagues.
Anyone who looks at my rankings will see the players I think are over-rated and under-rated compared to other experts, but in the next week I will highlight some of these bigger named players, giving you my rationale to go along with the rankings.
Let’s look at the RB position in this article.
Under-Rated
Noel Devine – West Virginia: Despite running for 1289 yards and adding 185 receiving, Devine finished 49th in fantasy points for RB in ’08. The reason was his inability to score with only 4 TDs on the season. He will never be a 20+ TD player but he is also too good to only score 4 times. Pat White vultured a majority of the scores in the red zone and with him now in the NFL, expect Devine to see the paydirt at least 10 times which moves him into the Top 15 for RBs.
Matt Asiata, Utah (thanks Icon SMI)
Matt Asiata – Utah: The Utes by nature are a running-back-by-committee type of team who always cranks out the yards on the ground but tends to split it among too many people to ever have a fantasy stud. This year is looking to be an exception as they have no other proven backs to steal carries from Asiata. This is not speculation on me, but pretty much admitted by the coach. Asiata ranked 58th last season despite splitting carries due to his beastly TD numbers; scoring 13 times. He is one of my favorite sleepers at the running back position who is a low risk pick if you can get him in the 4th round.
CJ Spiller – Clemson: Anyone that is familiar with my approach will know I am very quantitative and tend to not get caught up in only talent, but all the facts and coaching tendencies, in making my projections. I rarely draft or rank a player solely on a “gut” feeling without being able to back it up with some logic. Spiller is one of those rare cases. There is some implied logic but mostly it is reading between the lines that have everything screaming-Clemson is going to have Spiller carry the offense. He carries a big name, meaning he could still get drafted too high, but if he starts to slip I can’t think of a better player to gamble on.
Brynn Harvey – UCF: The Knights were a fantasy wasteland for much of the season and deservingly ignored over the 2nd half of the season. Hiding in the 119th ranked offense was Harvey who rushed for 500 yards over the last 6 games. After Kevin Smith left, the Knights brought in 4 highly recruited back by UCF standards who spent most of last year battling for the right to be the featured back. With Harvey claiming the top spot, 2 of those 4 recruits have left the program, once again leaving the Knights thin at the position. This means Harvey is not going to share the ball all that much, running behind a strong offensive line in the C-USA (which is not known for their defense). Harvey has been one of the fastest risers in my rankings and will almost certainly fly under the radar in most drafts making him a potential steal this year.
Eugene Jarvis – Kent State: Jarvis finished in the Top 5 for RB in 2007 but struggled through injuries and inexperience line play, in what was a frustrating season for owners who used a high pick on him last year. This is exactly what we want to see on draft day as fear creates value. Jarvis is back healthy running behind a line that returns 4 starters and plays a soft schedule. All these things points to Jarvis returning to a Top 5 back, assuming he can stay healthy. This year, his injury risk should allow you to grab Jarvis in the late 2nd or early 3rd round.
Over-Rated
MiQuale Lewis – Ball State: Lewis was always considered talented but never could stay healthy enough to show it. Last year he did, and he blew up to be one of the top backs in the country. Every expert out there is predicting Lewis to see a decrease in stats this year but I don’t think people are discounting him enough. Not only does Lewis have injury risk but he loses Nate Davis and Brady Hoke which was the biggest reason for his blow out season. Hoke ran a wide-open spread offense led by a perfect QB for the system in Davis. The Cardinals will be forced to run a more conservative offense with a new QB, who won’t be as good as Davis behind an inexperience line breaking in 4 new starters. Defenses aren’t going to let Lewis beat them this year.
Vai Taua – Nevada: Taua is in a tough position because of the return of Luke Lippincott who is a fan and coach favorite. Experts are hedging Taua in their rankings, but I wonder if people on draft day will ignore/pass on a back who put the 7th best stats from a running back last year? The answer is you should; you have to throw out the stats from last year and assume Lippincott is going to steal enough carries to make Taua more like a Top 30 back opposed to a Top 10 back.
Michael Smith – Arkansas: Smith put up solid stats last year because the offense had to lean on him and he suffered through some injuries throughout the season because of it. Smith was never intended to be a workhorse and is much more dangerous when getting the ball 10-15 times a game oppose to 25 times a game. This year the coaching staff has made it a point to split the carries more, and while Smith should be more productive on a per carry basis, it is unlikely that he will get enough carries to match his 19.7 points per game this year.
Jonathan Dwyer – Georgia Tech: I want to go on record as saying I love Dwyer as a back and think he is going to be a stud at the next level. However in Paul Johnson’s offense, he is just not going to get more than 10-15 carries a game and while he puts up great stats overall, he will always be limited by the lack of touches. Surprisingly he finished ranked 20th last year in fantasy points and while I expect a slight improvement the fact remains his media hype is bigger than his fantasy production. Don’t reach expecting a huge improvement over last season.
Darren Evans – Virginia Tech: Evans benefitted last year from injuries to get 287 carries and on his way to a great freshman season in which he ran for 1265 yards and 11 TDs. A lot of people are going to make the natural assumption that he will improve on these numbers with another year to get stronger and faster. The truth is that if he got 300 carries this year he would be a Top 10 back but Va Tech is loaded at running back and looking to split carries much more than people think.
Ok, I know I said that sleepers don’t really exist these days but in deep leagues with 20+ teams or leagues that limit the team pool to a few conferences. then there is a chance to find some players not on anyone’s radars that could surprise…Here are a list of some of the more intriguing RB names that I will be watching closely.
Three-year letterman Brandon Minor, Michigan (thanks Icon SMI)
Brandon Minor – Michigan
Edwin Baker – Michigan State
Daniel Porter – La Tech
Phillip Tanner – MTSU
John Mosure – Colorado State
Jeremy Demps – Florida
Christine Michael – Texas AM
Bryce Brown – Tennessee
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