2009 Fantasy College QB Sleepers/Busts
August 8th, 2009 by Drew Smith
The term sleepers and busts has to be one of the most over-used terms in fantasy sports these days. With information available with just a few clicks of the mouse, the true ‘sleeper’ no longer exists. The term ‘bust’ isn’t much better because it implies that the player will be horrible and not worthy of being drafted. However, in reality, if Case Keenum ends up being the 8th best QB (which is still great) he will be considered a bust. Does that mean you shouldn’t draft him if he fell in your draft for some reason? No, it just means you drafted him too early.
Juice Williams, while throwing a 54 yard TD pass against Penn St. (courtesy Icon SMI)
With all that said I like to think of players with the terms ‘over-rated’ and ‘under-rated’. Juice Williams is a QB that I believe is under-rated for example. This means that I expect that you will get more from Juice than the spot required to draft him. Another way of saying this is that you can get the 7th best QB stats from Juice even though you won’t have to select him as the 7th QB in most leagues.
Anyone who looks at my rankings will see the players I think are over-rated and under-rated compared to other experts. Here I will highlight some of these bigger named players to give you my rationale to go along with the rankings.
Let’s look at the QB position in this article.
Under-Rated
Juice Williams – Illinois: On a per game basis, Juice finished as the 14th ranked QB last year thanks largely to his 719 yards rushing. He is a four year starter who has gotten better each year in the passing game. I expect him to improve once again in his senior year and push the 3500 yard and 30 TD mark. Add in 600+ rushing and 5+ rushing TDs, and you have a QB who should finish with fantasy stats close to Tim Tebow without costing you a Top 3 pick.
Jeremiah Masoli – Oregon: If you take a quick look at Masoli’s stats last year, you see a player who finished 27th in overall stats and 28th in p/g for QBs. However, if you look closer you will see that he played sparingly the first 4 games of the season and didn’t take over the starting job until Week 5 against Washington State. Once the full time starter, Masoli put up points per game that would of ranked him 11th best QB. I fully expect him to continue putting out similiar stats this year and should be able to be drafted at a nice discount. His stats are heavily driven by his rushing stats, so he is not recommended for leagues that discount running QBs.
Greg Alexander – Hawaii: People have jumped off the Hawaii band-wagon overnight once June Jones left and last year proved that this might have been justified. What people fail to recognize is that last years offense of Hawaii was doomed regardless of the coach, as they lost all their receivers and had no QB ready to take over for Colt Brennan once Tyler Graunke crashed and burned. It wasn’t until the 8th game of the season when Alexander took over as the starter, and that was when the offense started to resemble the Jones days. In the final 7 games of the season he put up Top 20 stats and with most of his offense returning this year I expect him to be continuing his success again.
Bo Levi Mitchell – SMU: Sort of the opposite effect happened last year with SMU as everyone over-valued their QB expecting Hawaii type numbers. Heck, I even drafted Justin Willis in the 3rd round of the expert league. Mitchell won the job and had a rough year, finishing outside the Top 50 QBs overall. He was brought down by his 23 Ints and his negative rushing yards played a huge part in holding him back. Expect vast improvements from Mitchell going into his 2nd season of June Jones offense with arguably the best WR duo in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders.
Austen Arnaud – Iowa St: Arnaud had a surprisingly solid season for a horrible Iowa State team when he threw for 2792 yards 15 TDs and 10 Ints and also chipped in with 401 yards and 5 TDs rushing. This was all done in a conservative offense that didn’t scare any defenses. Now enters Tom Herman as the new OC, who some fantasy owners will recognize as the mastermind that turned Rice into a somebody in the fantasy world. The new coaching staff has admitted that they need to score a lot more points to be able to compete in the Big 12, so look for a much more up-tempo offense that should see Arnaud make a push for a Top 20 finish.
Over-Rated
Tim Tebow – Florida: I love Tebow as a player but he will cost you a Top 3 pick in just about every fantasy league out there. He is the most media-hyped college player in my lifetime and while he certainly justifies it in the real world, in the fantasy world this media hype causes him to be over-rated. Last year he finished 8th in points per game for QBs and this year could be in for even a lower finish if he continues to run less. I do expect to see his passing stats increase but offset by his running stats decreasing. Sadly, the fact that the Gators defense is expected to be so dominating hurts his fantasy chances because he just won’t be called on to carry the team. I would love having Tebow on my team and would never criticize someone for using a high pick on him because he is so much fun to watch, but from a purely value sense you will not get Top 3 overall stats from him.
Tyler Sheehan – Bowling Green: Sheehan had a respectable fantasy season last year finishing with 2600+ yards passing with 20 TDs. Some people would expect him to at least match those numbers or even improve on them heading into his senior season but the new coaching staff is committed to running a power rushing offense. Sheehan has a knack for the endzone with his feet, but it is hard to expect him to exceed his 7 rushing TDs from last year so with a expected decrease in passing yards, Sheehan is going to be over-valued in this year’s draft.
Jevan Snead – Ole Miss: Snead is going to be this year’s version of Matt Stafford in the fantasy world. As a player who could go 1st overall in the NFL draft, he is certainly getting a lot of media hype and even has the Rebels in the Top 10 in the pre-season polls. All this hype is going to make him get draft too high in fantasy drafts.
Terrelle Pryor – Ohio State: Pryor may indeed turn into the next Vince Young as a true fantasy superstar, but we are likely a year away before we need to have that discussion. He will continue to have value because of his rushing stats but with a young receiver corp and still learning how to be a passer, he will just be over-drafted in leagues this year based on his name.
Ryan Mallett – Arkansas: As with most of the names found on an over-rated list, it is the media hype that people let influence their fantasy selections. The Razorbacks are loaded at the running back position and will not need to pass on a consistent basis to make Mallett a fantasy force, assuming he even wins the starting job.
Ok I know I said that sleepers don’t really exist these days but in deep leagues with 20+ teams or leagues that limit the team pool to a few conferences then there is a chance to find some players not on anyone’s radars that could surprise…Here are a list of some of the more intriguing QB names that I will be watching closely.
Dwight Dasher – MTSU
Ricky Dobbs – Navy
Diondre Borel – Utah State
Riley Dodge – North Texas
Nick Fanuzzi – Rice
Vic Hall – Virginia
Rob Calabrese – UCF
Looking for some real time college football news and commentary? I am on Tweeter under the name ‘fcbdrew’.
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Can I throw in Akron’s Chris Jacquemain?
Top-shelf offensive coaching staff, two above average WR return and a couple of sleeper RBs behind him. I have yet to see Jacquemain selected in a mock draft (hell, most are not taking Daryl Clark of Penn State until 15-16th round!) but I think he has nothing but upside.