Over-Rated! Over-Rated!

One of my favorite things in college football is when the polls get it wrong and the fans let everyone know it. I’m talking about when you have a team that is considered to be one of the top teams in the nation, walking into the house of some weenie school that they are supposed to whoop up on and walk out with an easy win. But for some reason, whether it is an act of God or just parody in the college football world, they get beat by that weenie school. The words are almost angelic voices whispering sweet nothings into your ear…Over-Rated! Over-Rated!

Now that I got that out of the way, there is a whole method to my madness. I want to discuss this malarkey that I’m reading about how Virginia Tech is worthy of a top 5 rating when the NCAA polls come out. What?! Are you kidding me? Who are they looking at that would make them a viable top 5 team in the nation? You can’t say it’s Tyrod Taylor. Don’t get me wrong. The kid is really good and could be as good as Michael Vick was in college with a little work, but he has durability issues. Plus, just because you have one great player on offense does not mean that the entire team is going to be good on offense. I understand that they are going to have a nice stable of Running Backs this year lead by Sophomore Darren Evans, but how do expect to run when the Offensive line can’t make a hole large enough to squeeze through? Don’t even get me started on the Wide Receivers, let alone some of the key losses on Defense.

Look, I get it. They were extremely young last year, and still are for that matter. One more year under their belt should make them better. But let’s not confuse another year’s worth of experience with elite status. That would be like saying that since the Detroit Lions drafted Matthew Stafford, they are now going to make a deep playoff run. Cart, please say hello to the horse.

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AJ Green makes a great catch versus Vanderbilt in 2008

This college fantasy football thing must be getting some traction as Mr. College Football, Tony Barnhart of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, asks which SEC prodigy freshman wide receiver would you prefer - Alabama’s Julio Jones or Georgia’s AJ Green?

I say both just watched their quarterbacks move on to the NFL so the immediate future is up in the air depending on the relationship each can build with the new signal caller.

I do not have the empirical evidence, but my guess is the new QBs will make sure most of their passes go towards these big studs outside the hashmarks to ensure their own success.

My pick is AJ Green – a litter leaner and already showing a knack for the TD. Yes, Bama Fans, I know Green had the #1 draft pick Matthew Stafford and Jones had the just-above-pedestrian JP Wilson.

Anyway, nice to see fantasy being discussed in the mainstream. But who would YOU pick?

As we begin our preparation for fantasy college football draft day 2009 (early guess is August 22), we always start from the top down and look at history to give us a framework for the future. Sure – great players graduate and make room for the stars of tomorrow, but what schools consistently produce top statistical performances?

As I have done since 2000 I gather the most fantasy related stats for every FBS team (including those pesky Western Kentucky Hilltoppers) – and once again the state of Oklahoma owns the scoreboards with OU and OSU in the Top Five but both yielding to the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes for the top spot for 2008′s offensive rankings.

Fantasycollegeblitz-dynasties-study-2008.pdf

For a refresher, I rank all teams by yards per play (YPP), yards per game (YPG) and touchdowns per game (TDGM) then add up the rankings. Like for Tiger Woods, lower scores are better…

The Sooner State continues to rule, as all three teams were in the Top Ten in 2007, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys show up in the Top Ten every year since 2006. It is likely that Tulsa could fall out of the top ten due to the departure of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn to Auburn, but Head Coach Todd Graham promises to keep the offense going with the same schemes under Herb Hand.

Probably no shock that nine of the Top Ten are spread offenses (not Texas per se), as are fourteen of the top 20. Later this week I will look at three-year rolling periods and debut the 2006-8 total ranks. Stay tuned.

On March 30th 2009, Nick Gerogosian had the opportunity to spend time with MAC Commissioner Rick Chryst. Chryst announced in late January that he will be stepping down this June and pursuing other interests after leading the Mid-American Conference for the past decade. In mid-March Dr. Jon Steinbrecher was announced as the league’s new commissioner. Dr. Steinbrecher comes to the MAC from the Ohio Valley Conference.

Below is a portion of the question and answer session between Rick Chryst and Nick, followed by a personal closing commentary.

Nick: The timing of your announcement in January was quite odd. On January 28, 2009, the MAC office announced the historic TV extension with ESPN and then within a day or two there was the announcement of your departure. Why was it done then?

Rick: Nick, I just think it was right time both personally and professionally. Ten years as a commissioner of any league is a long time and we’ve accomplished a great deal during this time period. I’ll admit the timing may have seemed a little odd but I wanted to make sure that this television contract was secure before I left. We’ve had an incredible relationship with ESPN over the years and certainly our product has had success on their family of networks. Obviously this was a win-win situation for both parties.

Nick: So it’s good to out on a high note.

Rick: Absolutely.

Nick: How long have you been leaning this way? Where there any extenuating circumstances as well?

Rick: Probably for the past twelve to eighteen months I’ve been considering it. A decision like this certainly takes time to evaluate, both from a career standpoint along with a personal and family standpoint. As for extenuating circumstances; no; none really to speak about. I’ve been very fortunate to work with some outstanding presidents, athletic directors and MAC staff through the years. Obviously when you spend ten years doing something like this you develop relationships, some stronger than others. But no, there were no extenuating circumstances.

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