ACC Preview: North Carolina Tarheels
July 10th, 2008 by Drew Smith
The Tar Heals are getting a ton of hype from the media for being one of these sleeper type teams for the 2008 season. There are plenty of valid points to why North Carolina should win more games but I’m more concerned with seeing improved fantasy numbers as Hakeem Nicks (left, Icon SMI) was pretty much the only player with fantasy value over the course of the 2007 season.
Last year as a freshman, QB TJ Yates threw for 2,655 yards but only 14 TDs. His 18 INTs sapped all of his fantasy value. The interceptions were high because the lack of running game caused Yates to see a large amount of “cover” defenses. This type of D caused him pay when he tried to force passes. This year, with the running game expected to take off, look for the TD/Int numbers to improve from the starting QB position. But wait one moment, Yates is not guaranteed the starting job. Previous starter, Cameron Sexton, had a great spring while Yates was out with a sore shoulder. Sexton also has the experience that Butch Davis might want if he feels this team is ready to compete for the ACC title. However, the guy I can see stealing the job or at least a decent amount of playing time is true frosh Mike Paulus. Paulus was a big-time QB recruit for Davis and coaches tend to like to play ‘their’ recruits.
Bottom-Line: Yates should be the starter but will have a short-leash which makes him a huge risk. The upside if he is the starter the entire year is 2,700 yards, 20 TDs and 12 Int.
Davis has been looking for a work-horse running back since he arrived in Chapel Hill and believes he has finally found one in converted WR Greg Little. Little was actually converted to RB mid-season and started the last two games in 2007 with decent results. All indications point to Davis dumping the RBBC and giving Little the ball 20-25 times a game which holds well for us fantasy players. The Tar Heals return 9 of their top 10 offensive line this year and while they aren’t the best bunch talent-wise, you will see improvements. If Little gets injured then expect to see a bunch of backs rotated in, similar to last season…which means little fantasy value.
Bottom-Line: I am projecting Little to have a break-out season and while other owners in your league might be hesitate to take him because he is an unknown, you shouldn’t be.
Nicks was pretty much the entire receiving corp last year as he had 74 catches, while the next guy on the list had 25. This year might not be much different as Brooks Foster and Brandon Tate are really only there to make defenses pay for over-loading on Nicks. Zack Pianalto is a pass-catching TE who be a bigger part of the offense and could be deemed a sleeper in 2 and 3 conference leagues.
Bottom-Line: Look for Nicks to put up similar catches and yards with an increase in TDs as the improved running game will open up the red zone for him to work. Upside: 70-1000-10TDs.
Jay Wooten takes over as the kicker and while he is considered a great talent, he is still inexperienced. He will be inconsistent but has decent upside as far as kickers go.
Fantasy wise, the Tar Heals defense was scratching at the Top 50 last year and should easily break through as this is a young and talented group. They might be a year or two away from being great but this is a defense you can grab late and feel confident starting when your top defense has tough matchups.
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