Alamo Bowl Preview: Missouri vs. Northwestern

December 28th, 2008 by Vince Mullins

Admit it – you are still surprised that Northwestern ranks among the Top 25 teams in the nation. These are the same Wildcats that looked so hapless during the first two years of the Pat Fitzgerald regime, and despite (or perhaps because of) two new coordinators they triumphed to an 8-3 record int eh cyclically weak Big Ten.

And here they are in the Valero Alamo Bowl, one of the three 2008 bowl matchups of top teams as they face the offensive blitzkreig of the Missouri Tigers. Speaking of matchups, you will see some of the top units in the game when Mizzou takes possession, and a couple of the worst when the Wildcats take the field.

Stats, trends and cool conversation starters for the girls at the party/bar after the jump…

Fun facts for the chick at the watch party

Northwestern has not won a bowl game since 1948, same year (insert the fact that you think will most impress her – you have to read the coverage here, mates)…

The US Supreme Court ruled religious instruction in public schools was unconstitutional in McCollum v. Board of Education
Hell’s Angels biker gang was formed.
President Harry Truman signed the Marshall Plan to authorize post-WW2 rebuilding resources throughout Europe.
The Cleveland Indians won their last World Series, same year they signed pitcher Satchel Paige, the first black pitcher in Major League history and also the oldest rookie at age 42.
Many stars of music and the arts of the 1970s were born, like Kenny Loggins (Caddyshack theme), Donald Fagen of Steely Dan, Ronnie Van Zant of Lynard Skynard, dancer Mikhail Baryshnikov, Super Freak Rick James, Alice Cooper, James Taylor, Steven Tyler of Aerosmith, Billy Crystal, Steve Winwood and Robert Plant

Also, both teams beat Illinois this season, Missouri on opening weekend and NW on the last one. Mizzou was a shootout, NW was a defensive grinder. Missouri was a fave on a neutral field, NW a home dog. Oh the dichotomy…

Mizzou has scored 38 points in each of its last three bowl games.

When Missouri has the ball

This is likely when the game will be won – which unit reigns supreme?

Mizzou possesses outrageous talent when the offense is on the field (my #5 regular season offense), led by one of the best college quarterbacks of the decade in Chase Daniel, college’s all time pass catching TE Chase Coffman and one of fantasy college football’s best WR/KR in Jeremy Maclin. It would be wise to be aware of freshman RB Derrick Washington (almost 1300 yfs, 19TD and 6.6 yds/touch) and often injured but potent WR Danario Alexander. The Tigers pass more than 57% of time this season, but oddly Coach Gary Pinkel tends to lean on running the last two years as defenses seem to over-prepare for the pass.

Mike Hankwitz, Northwestern defensive coordinator ne plus ultra, likely will not fall for such over-compensation. He has created an impressive resume including solid results this season – not only are the WIldcats the #15 ranked defense in the nation they are 4-1 vs spread teams (inexcusable loss at Indiana), allowing more than 20 points in four of them…but Hanky realizes that the Tigers present the most potent version of the spread he has ever seen. Northwestern has blitzed on just 16 percent of its snaps this season, MU offensive coordinator (soon to be Wyoming Head coach) Dave Christensen said in a Herald interview, so if Hankwitz were to break tendencies then this would likely change moreso than formations would.

Please understand that this is not hyperbole – this NW D vs. MU O matchup is the most intriguing this side of the BCS Title game when Oklahoma takes possession.

When NW has the ball

RB Tyrell Sutton broken wrist is healed, he is a go and adds a truer running dimension to my #83 ranked offense who has been without his services since early November. The 2-headed QB monster of senior CJ Bacher and junior Mike Kafka, who engineered a great victory over Minnesota with one of the great finishes of the season. Unfortunately, together they have thrown equal amounts of TDs and INT (17), a true sign of the Wildcat fans’ dread of this matchup on an existential level..

That fear should be mollified since Mizzou defensive ills have been well chronicled, but I wonder if there reputation has been deflated as they faced a Big 12 schedule ripe with the nation’s best offenses. The Tigers defense stands at 117 out of 120 in pass yards allowed this season, but my BlitzIndex rankings put them at #61 for efficiency. I have to believe at the end of the day

What Vegas says

Courtesy of theSpread.com, Alamo Bowl has the highest spread of any bowl game remaining, Missouri is a 12.5pt favorite. The total is set at 66.5 so the expected score is around 40-26 in favor of the Big 12 North winner. Intuition is that the strength of schedule in the Big 12 has a lot to do with this big number. Wildcats are 3-7-1 over/under as the talent of their defense really snuck up on the pros, whereas Missouri was dead even as they played as expected.

What others say

Phil Steele gives the Missouri straight up win his highest confidence pick of bowl season. Bruce Feldman of ESPN likes the Tigers big. Everyone (even Regis Philbin?) at Yahoo! picks Mo. The Blue Horseshoe DEC/Cray Supercomputer likes Missouri 75-31, and the FCB Ning Forum Superstar Neil Young likes Tigers 45-24.

What Mullins says

I like the Tigers as well, but I am phasing down the scoring expectations a bit.

Missouri 31, Northwestern 21

The weather will keep some of the late arriving fans from Chicago from even getting out of security detail, which could affect the NW vibe a bit.