Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes
July 17th, 2008 by James Lawrence
Colorado’s 2007 season can best be described as puzzling. This was a team that shocked both Oklahoma and Texas Tech, but managed to lose to Iowa State and Kansas State.
With QB Cody Hawkins taking over the offense, productivity soared from 16.3 ppg and 291.4 ypg in 2006 to 27.3 ppg and 378.5 ypg. While still in the bottom half of the country, this brought the CU attack closer to the middle than the very bottom – and would have been great with the 2006 defense that gave up 22.3 ppg on 340.9 ypg.
Unfortunately, CU’s defensive numbers also dropped, due to lost personnel, and the Buffs were giving up 29.5 ppg on 389.3 ypg. Despite this seeming offset, Colorado did improve from 2 wins in 2006 to 6 wins in 2007, and at least from their gains in talent and experience it would be reasonable to expect a winning season in 2008.
Third-year head coach Dan Hawkins leads Colorado,
brought in from Boise State and known for his energy and offensive trickery. Boise’s defensive coordinator Ron Collins came over with him, and Mark Helfrich also maintains his tenure at CU under Hawkins after being brought in from Arizona State, a school known for its passing offense.
Cody Hawkins enters his sophomore year with a season’s experience as the Buffs’ starting QB. The coach’s son made positive gains on offense despite not only being a first year starter but also having a freshman receiver corps! This year Colorado’s two leading receivers return and, while still not likely to break par for the Big 12 offenses, you can expect to see Hawkins improve upon his 3015 yards and 22-17 ratio.
Colorado loses a reliable rusher and receiver in Hugh Charles, but no matter. Freshman Darrell Scott was the #1 RB recruit in the country and features 4.32 speed. Unfortunately, the offensive line only returns two starters – Daniel Sanders is a RG converted into a C, and Ryan Miller who was first team freshman All-American last season. The LT is a converted TE and undersized at that, which spells trouble for both the running and passing games. Behind Scott, Demetrius Sumler returns after being #2 on the team in rushing a year ago, albeit with just 335 yards and a 3.4 ypc, and freshman Ray Ray Polk has received much praise this off-season.
The wide receiver position is a little more experienced than last year, with sophomores Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith returning as the top two receivers, and they combined for 1046 yards and 4 TD in 2007. Riar Greer was clearly more of a blocking TE than receiving, pulling in just 14 catches on the season.
On special teams, kicker Aric Goodman hit a woeful 10 of 16 FG in 2006 at Wyoming. I don’t know if that will improve at Colorado (because of better overall players as well as being a very kicker-friendly stadium), but it’s probably not worth the risk when drafting. None of the return men from 2007 return, but there’s a chance that Darrell Scott could replace Hugh Charles on kickoffs (Terrence Wheatley is also being replaced on KO’s). This would of course only add to Scott’s fantasy value, and with a depleted offensive line Hawkins may start looking for other ways to get his star player the touches in the open field.
Though the Colorado defense returns 8 starters from last season, they will be without leading tackler Jordon Dizon (LB, 173 tkl) and star cornerback Terrence Wheatley (5 int). Dizon had neatly twice as many tacklers as the next guy on CU’s stats sheet (MLB Jeff Smart, 89 tkl), so clearly his presence will be missed. The one good thing about this defense is the fact that eight starters are seniors and the remaining three are juniors. Still, this is a defense that wasn’t good last year and lost their two best players. Look elsewhere.
When evaluating Colorado’s prospects for the 2008 season, there are five names that stand out: West Virginia, Florida State, Texas, Kansas, and Missouri. Yep, all on the very tough schedule. Making things that much better, CU plays the first four of those teams consecutively! Guru Phil Steele ranks the Buffs’ schedule as the 8th-toughest in the nation – unfortunately this means that CU will probably finish the season with a losing record unless they really take care of business in all games in which they are favored or on even footing.
So while I wouldn’t draft any Buffs this season, here is one thing to keep in mind for late-season pickups or for 2009. Darrell Scott is the true freshman and three members of the offensive line are freshmen or sophomores (along with 1 jr, 1 sr). Barring injury, the ground game should get better as this season goes on, and on top of that CU’s schedule is significantly easier after Oct 11 than before it. (in fact, they play nobody with any semblance of a defense in November). Then next season, the whole unit returns – only one offensive starter is a senior – and they should keep seeing gains.
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