Big 12 Preview: Texas Longhorns
July 6th, 2008 by James Lawrence
The Longhorns struggled throughout much of 2007, starting the season 4-0 yet marked by unimpressive victories over Arkansas State and UCF. The Horns were embarrassingly run out of Royal Memorial Stadium by Kansas State by virtue of poor kick coverage and -4 turnovers, then lost a good game against Oklahoma in which both teams played well.
Texas needed impressive comebacks to beat Oklahoma State and Nebraska in back-to-back weeks, then seemed to get it together against Texas Tech, putting on an offensive display behind the running of Jamal Charles. Alas, Texas was once again upset by rival A&M to close the regular season in a poor performance by both the Longhorn defense and Colt McCoy .
Texas kept their nation-leading streak of seven 10+ win seasons alive with a dominating performance in the Holiday Bowl, lighting up the scoreboard against Pac 10 runner-up Arizona State.
Mack Brown is entering his 11th season at the University of Texas. The Longhorns have averaged 10 wins a season under Brown and have finished ranked in the top 25 each time!
While criticism of Brown is well-known and, at times, well-deserved (Simms over Applewhite??), the coach has nonetheless produced results that even most major programs would envy. Greg Davis remains offensive coordinator, perhaps to the dismay of some Longhorns faithful (who criticize the offense’s tendency to go into a shell in big games). The most exciting news in Austin is the arrival of Will Muschamp as new defensive coordinator from Auburn. Muschamp’s defense finished last season 6th nationally in scoring, and he was also DC at LSU for the 2003 championship season which featured the nation’s #1 defense. Texas is hoping that he will revitalize what was the worst defensive unit the Longhorns have fielded since 1998.
After an amazing freshman season, Colt McCoy slumped in 2007 – throwing for 3300 yards at a 65% completion rate, but managing just a 22-18 ratio. His feet did boost his stats notably, as he was the team’s second-leading rusher with 492 yards and 4 TDs. Really, McCoy has not been the same since suffering numerous injuries at the end of the 2006 season.
Unfortunately, McCoy lost three of his top five targets from the 2007 season. The top two WRs are solid, but beyond that are a lot of question marks.
Last season, Jamal Charles was among the nation’s top running backs, pounding out 1619 yards and 18 TDs with an impressive 6.3 ypc. Vondrell McGee did punch 8 into the end zone, but the backups played very sparingly.
This season, McGee and Chris Ogbonnaya will split carries along with Foswhitt Whittacker until a leading rusher is established – if ever. Recall that in the 2005 national championship season, Texas employed the use of Charles, Selvin Young, and Ramonce Taylor at the halfback position, so clearly the Horns are not concerned with finding a feature back if a committee works best.
With the lack of experience and the possibility of some serious duty-sharing, this is probably not an ideal group for fantasy owners to pull from.
Texas has had a surprisingly deep wide receiver corps for several seasons, but it took a big hit going into 2008 with the departure of Limas Sweed, leading receiver Nate Jones, and standout tight end Jermichael Finley. Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley are the only two receivers (no tight ends) returning who caught at least 10 passes last year! Perhaps opposite of the RB situation, while this is bad for the Longhorns, it may be good for fantasy owners. Texas has a capable quarterback and plays in a conference where scoring has been trending up. Cosby and Shipley are going to get their catches, the question is who will develop into McCoy’s go-to guy and who will be racking up the bigger gains? My gut leans towards Shipley, but he is also more of an injury risk.
Beyond that, I would not pick other UT receivers for your fantasy squad.
In 2007, Texas had their worst defensive performance since the beginning of the BCS, allowing 25.3 ppg and not showing the ability to close out games with needed stops. The Longhorns lose seven defensive starters, although new starters Roy Miller (DT) and Roddrick Muckelroy (LB) have extensive game experience. The front seven is not a concern, but the secondary is. Texas loses three starters at defensive back, although based on last season you have to wonder if that’s a bad thing? Still this group is both small and inexperienced. It will come down to Muschamp’s schemes, which honestly may save this unit. Still I would not put Texas high on my draft board, not with games against Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Kansas.
Kicker Ryan Bailey was one of the great stories of 2006, a midseason walk-on who hit six of six field goals, including a game-winner at Nebraska, and earned a scholarship! He followed that up with a 18-22 performance last season, including 8-10 from 40+ yards. This is a great kicker, well worth owning.
Summary
This has all the markings of a down year for the Longhorns. Only eleven starters return in total, the offense has been stripped of most skill position starters, and the defense is staring mediocrity in the face. Bright spots include the hopes that Colt McCoy regains his 2006 form and that Will Muschamp has the same effect on the 2008 defense that Gene Chizik had on the 2005 unit. Personally I think this is the season UT’s 10-win streak ends. The schedule is crazy and they’ve been dropping silly games lately.
Statistically, Ryan Bailey just might be the most valuable fantasy player on this team, though Colt McCoy does have the potential to be a top 10 quarterback (he could also not finish in the top 40). It’s a gamble you’d take if you think you know something everyone else doesn’t.
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