Defenses and special teams – or as it’s seen in the Big 12, the guys who try in vain to stop your offense and the guys who come out after the inevitable touchdown to tack on the seventh point. Getting to the point, you are going to see a lot of defenses here appearing to underperform in terms of fantasy values because of the offenses, and a lot of kickers who might have average field goal kicking abilities with inflated values due to volume of touchdowns scored.  Also, while we are wrapping up the Big 12, let’s cover the one TE worth drafting and a couple of guys with potential.

Defenses

1. Texas

The Longhorns are returning their five leading tacklers from the unit that was (by a large margin) tops in the Big 12 a year ago. Texas should have a better secondary than last year by virtue of experience, with about the same level of production at LB and a slight drop off at defensive due to three starters graduating (although incoming freshman Alex Okafor was one of the nation’s top recruits at DE). Nonetheless it could be one of the top 5-10 defenses in the country, and the numbers will be helped by the fact that the conference isn’t quite as strong as it was on offense last season. Also, Texas has a passing offense that is more oriented towards high-percentage plays to sustain drives and control possession.

Additionally, Jordan Shipley had touchdowns on both kickoff and punt returns a season ago, which are typically counted towards a team’s defensive stats in fantasy leagues.

2. Oklahoma

Oklahoma will be returning their entire front seven and both corners in 2009, and don’t underestimate the impact of a healthy Ryan Reynolds returning as middle linebacker to compliment team-leading tackler Travis Lewis (144!) at the weak side spot. They had a solid defense last season, as evidenced by being the only team to hold Florida under 30 (a game that was 14-14 in the 4th). Ironically, their problem was that the Sooner offense scored so fast that it: a) got the defense back on the field quickly and b) forced opposing offenses to be more aggressive. In fact, on a yards per play basis, their defense performed slightly better than the Texas Longhorns, despite being ranked in the vicinity of 40 spots below Texas in total and scoring defense. We’re not sure how Oklahoma’s offense will look in terms of total points and yards compared to last season’s, but with the running game intact and the receiving corps a deep shade of green, we’re expecting a bit more ball control on the other side to help out a unit that was actually pretty good per play a year ago, and is returning 9 starters.

3. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State might have the best LB corps in the Big 12, led by team-leading tackler Andre Sexton. D-line may be adequate, but unfortunately for Cowboys fans, this is a pass-happy conference and we’re looking at three new starters in the secondary. That’s good for a pair of torchings against UT and OU. Other teams on the schedule (Houston, Texas Tech namely) are apt to exploit this as well. Nonetheless, the front seven alone should put them above the non-championship-contender masses of the conference.

Like Texas, OSU’s defensive fantasy stats could be helped by their return man, Dez Bryant.

4. Nebraska

The top three are there for a separation in skill. And if you can, look elsewhere as the Big 12 is not likely to see a dramatic rebound in defensive stats in just a year’s time. Beyond that, you might want to look at Big 12 North defenses that won’t have to face Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech (and Baylor’s, right!) with the offensive juggernauts they bring. Nebraska will have one of the better secondaries in the conference, a strong defensive line, and trouble at linebacker (two freshmen, yikes!). However, they don’t face Texas or Oklahoma State. The closest thing to an offense they’ll see in September comes at Virginia Tech (ha!).

5. Baylor

The Bears are returning eight starters from a defense that seemed vastly improved in comparison to previous seasons, and ten starters will be either juniors or seniors. Joe Pawelek (LB) and Jordan Lake (FS) are the keys to this unit, and both had strong performances in 2008. Phil Taylor’s transfer from Penn State could help to shore up the defensive line.

6. Texas Tech

To their credit, the Raider defense has an all-senior front four that will be one of the top four units in the conference. Beyond that, this group is mediocre. The loss of Darcel McBath will have a huge impact on the secondary, and the linebackers (though all returning) weren’t that impressive a year ago. Brandon Williams and his 13 sacks will be missed as well.

7. Colorado

The Buffaloes will have seven new starters on defense in 2009, but don’t worry about experience. With an offense this bad, they’ll see plenty of time on the field. Second team-Big 12 Jeff Smart returns at the MLB position, and with hyped redshirt freshman Jon Major taking the weak side spot the LBs should be a strong group. However, I am very concerned about four new faces on the defensive line and a tough schedule including West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma State.

8. Missouri

Amazingly, Missouri finished second in scoring and third in yardage defense in the Big 12 in 2008. Leading tackler Sean Weatherspoon (155!) returns this year, and not a whole lot else. The Tigers’ defense will be breaking in seven new starters, and strong side linebacker Josh Tatum is the only one who has much hype coming in. Illinois, Oklahoma State, and Texas are on the schedule. I’m a little concerned about this group.

9. Kansas

Seven starters return, but the entire starting linebacking corps, which was the heart and soul (and three 90+ tacklers) of this defense, are all gone. KU’s linebackers this season will be among the worst in the conference, and the front four is expected to be mediocre. The secondary – four returning starters led by Justin Thornton and Darrell Stuckey from the Orange Bowl ’07 team – will be among the top defensive back groups in the conference, and they’ll need it in a schedule that includes Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas.

10. Iowa State

In fairness to A&M, this is actually the worst group in the Big 12.  They have five new starters. Last season’s returning tackles leader (James Smith) is back, but he had just 85 tackles which isn’t that much for #1 on the team. But we are looking at a schedule that doesn’t include Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, and that’ll show up in the stats.

11. Kansas State

Kansas State was one of three teams to allow over 40 ppg in conference play last year (the other two are one spot above and below them in this list). Eight starters return, so we can expect the same level of play this year, woohoo! In Bill Snyder fashion, we’ve got a pair of FCS schools on the slate and KSU is also lucky to avoid Texas and Oklahoma State.

12. Texas A&M

The once-proud wrecking crew now routinely gives up 40 points a game in conference play, and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t loving it. This defense and this schedule? Stay away from that mess.

Kickers

1. Hunter Lawrence, Texas

Lawrence was one of three Big 12 kickers to hit over 80% of his field goals last season. All three return, but the others play for A&M (Randy Bullock, hit just 6 of 7) and Nebraska (Alex Henery, hit 18 of 21). We feel like Lawrence is a little more likely to be put in position to have attempts than either of his equally accurate counterparts. Additionally, he hit all 60 PATs in 2008 and should attempt at least as many in 2009.

2. Dan Bailey, Oklahoma State

Bailey hit 15 of his 19 attempts in 2008, so we know he’s accurate. Oklahoma State’s offense will be strong enough to ensure that he gets a good number of attempts in 2009.

3. Alex Henery, Nebraska

Henery has one hell of a leg, hitting on 86% of his attempts in 2008 with a long of 57. This is the best kicker in the conference. Although we’re not sure how productive to expect the Huskers to be,  he’s good to convert pretty much anytime they get inside the opponent’s 40. If you think Nebraska’s offense will be better than expected, definitely move him up on your list of kickers.

4. Jimmy Stevens, Oklahoma

Stevens hit just 8 of his 12 attempts with a long of 42, and actually missed 5 PATs. Oh yeah, he attempted 99 of them. We’re not expecting OU’s offense to keep that pace up, but the Sooners will still be scoring points and calling on this guy to kick it through the uprights.

5. Jacob Branstetter, Kansas

He made 75% of FG attempts last season, but with a long of just 34 yards. It’s ok- the Kansas offense will put up a decent amount of points and probably give him about a FG attempt per game on top of PATs.

6. Ben Parks, Baylor

Well, at this point, we’ve got a couple teams with new kickers, and a couple teams with kickers who have records of missing over half their attempts. Then we have Ben Parks, a guy who hit two thirds of his FGAs last season and plays on a team I’m calling to have a stunning season. You might as well rank their kicker in the top half of the conference (in anticipation of Robert Griffin singlehandedly breaking Oklahoma’s scoring weekend in September) and just stop the list here. Really, there aren’t any other kickers you’d want to look at – Randy Bullock (A&M) may be good, but that offense isn’t getting him anywhere near enough attempts to be of much fantasy value.

Tight Ends

1. Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma

Gresham is essentially a gigantic wide receiver. A year ago, he put 950 yards and 14 TDs in the stat books. The departure of most of OU’s receiving corps may hurt Bradford’s stats, but it’ll make sure that that many more passes are coming Gresham’s way. He’s good for 1000, a rare luxury in a TE.

2. Blaine Irby, Texas

I’m looking down the list of B12 TEs, and I cannot justify putting many of these other names second — there is simply no player to compete with Gresham nor replace Coffman. Irby caught 10 passes for 95yd 2TD in 2008 despite playing just three games (injury), stats that would project out well over a full season. Texas threw the ball a lot to TEs in 2004-07, and with Cosby’s absence felt by the offense I expect McCoy to look to the big guy over the middle once again.

3. Mike McNeill, Nebraska

McNeill just set a Nebraska school record for receiving yards by a tight end (442). With such talent, we could see the system modified to get him the ball a bit more often in 2009, as the Huskers are breaking in several new starting WRs.

4. Jamie McCoy, Texas A&M

McCoy had 500 rec yards in 2008 and should again be the #3 target of this passing game in 2009. Bonus that A&M QBs typically have a good enough arm to dump off to the TE/RB.

5. Jeron Mastrud, Kansas State

Mastrud has seen steady improvement by about 100 yards a season for his three years at KSU. The effect that Snyder’s return will have on the system remains unknown, but Mastrud is one of the productive TEs returning to the conference.

6. Justin Akers, Baylor

Akers is a converted WR playing TE, which is always good for fantasy stats. Two years ago, he caught passes for 480 yards despite being on a pre-Cream Baylor offense. With Griffin requiring all 11 defenders to contain, Akers could have another solid season.

Related posts:

1. SEC’s “Other” Rankings for Fantasy College Football
2. Pac 10 “Other” Rankings for Fantasy College Football
3. A Look at Your Big 12 Fantasy College Football Quarterbacks
4. BlitzIndex College Football Defense Rankings, Week 5
5. BlitzIndex College Football Defense Rankings as of Nov 16

Tags: Big 12