Predicted Finish: Notre Dame 17 vs. Florida State 24
This is the battle of “What-Could-Have-Beens.” Notre Dame was supposed to take the next step and become that pass-happy powerhouse that we were all accustomed to under Chip Kelly. We didn’t see it. In fact, the Fighting Irish did not settle on their QB until just before their bye week, half-way through the season. The defense kept them in games, but their offense often times failed to win them. The ‘Noles on the other hand saw one of the largest improvements in overall defense in recent years, but their inept offense never seemed to be able to take advantage of the favorable situations that the defense put them in. With the combination of numerous injuries, the inability to run the ball, and QB accuracy issues, this was one of the worst offenses FSU has had under Jimbo Fisher’sdirections. Both teams come to this math-up with 8-4 records.
Notre Dame has a very clear advantage in running game as they averaged 166 yards per game on the ground, compared to the ‘Noles who barely eclipsed 100 yards per game. The Golden Domers thunder (Jonas Gray) and lightening (Cierre Wood) combo rushed for almost 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. Florida State will rely on true freshman Davonta Freeman to shoulder the load with senior Jermaine Thomas sprinkled in. The passing games, headed by QB EJ Manuel for the Seminoles and QBTommyReese for Notre Dame, will struggle to find a whole lot through the air as both secondaries are very formidable. This will come down to the better WR group, and outside of Michael Floyd, the Irish don’t have a whole lot there. On the other hand, FSU has too many WR to know what to do with, but keep an eye on true freshman Rashad Greene, who had a breakout season.
This game will come down to defense and FSU should have the edge here as their #5 ranked defense in the nation should make it tough to run the ball, which will put the game in Reese’s hands.
The Holiday Bowl has been a graveyard for disappointed teams from both the Big 12 and the Pac 10 for years, and now Cal and Texas get to settle their differences in San Diego.
Texas. Cal. Holiday Bowl. It’s tough to read those four words without thinking of the 2004 season, when Texas and Cal both finished with 1 loss apiece (to unbeaten Oklahoma/USC) and it was Texas chosen by the narrowest of margins to play in the BCS. (Keep in mind that these kids were in middle school back in 2004…)
Vince Young and the Horns went on to win one of the best Rose Bowls ever played (until, you know, their win the following year) while Aaron Rodgers and Cal were embarassed by Mike Leach’s Red Raiders in… the Holiday Bowl!
This year, both teams limp into this game at 7-5 with 4-5 records in their respective conferences. Texas has struggled mightily down the stretch, winning just one of their last 4 games, while Cal finished with a boom (3-1) with only a narrow loss to highly-ranked Stanford. But that may be a matter of schedule ordering – neither team won a game in conference against a team with more than 6 wins. Read the rest of this entry →
The teams had a common opponent this season, each losing to Boise State. The Rockets suffered a 40-15 home defeat to the Broncos on Sept. 16, and the Falcons lost 37-26 on the road Oct. 22.
Notes:
Air Force
The Falcons’ are a strong running team via the triple option; Air Force is second in the FBS in rushing at 320.3 yards a contest.
Asher Clark leads the way with 1,096 rushing yards, while Mike DeWitt has run for 543 and QB Tim Jefferson 492. DeWitt and Jefferson are tied with a team-high 10 rushing TDs, and Air Force has run for 38 scores – fourth in the FBS.
Air Force may have to rely on the pass a bit more because Toledo has been solid against the run allowing an average of 123.2 yards…but their pass defense has been terrible ranking 109th out of 120 FBS schools in pass defense at 278 ypg.
Toledo
The Rockets averaged 42.3 points this season – best in the Mid-American Conference and eighth nationally – and since the start of November they average an FBS-best 53.8.
Running a spread offense the Rockets averaged 221.2 yards rushing and 272.0 passing, one of 14 FBS schools above 200 in both categories.
WR Eric Page is third in the nation with 112 receptions for 1,123 yards and 10 TDs.
Toledo’s ground game has also excelled with Adonis Thomas amassing 648 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in his last four games. Thomas leads the Rockets in rushing with 963 yards and is tied with Morgan Williams for the team lead with 11 touchdown runs; Thomas and Williams could be poised for big games against Air Force, which ranks 113th against the run at 227.8 yards a game.
Nick’s Pick: Air Force 41 – Toledo 40
Comment: The Rockets can really light up the score board but a suspect defense playing against a very disciplined and efficient USAFA offense may be the difference. If the Rockets can eliminate turnovers and penalties they will win; they have yet to really show that sort of discipline this season against the better teams on their schedule. I expect this one to go to the wire.
The Broncos rank among the national leaders in scoring (35.6 ppg) and passing (328.8 ypg).
Western Michigan has lost each of its previous four bowl appearances, most recently in 2008 to Rice in the Texas Bowl.
The Broncos are led by All-American receiver Jordan White, who leads the nation with 127 receptions for 1,646 yards. The senior has 16 touchdown catches, including nine over the last four games while averaging 163.5 yards; with 3,922 career receiving yards, White is 110 shy of becoming the MAC’s all-time leader.
QB Alex Carder will be back throwing to White after missing the Broncos’ 68-19 victory over Akron in their regular season finale with a separated shoulder. Despite missing that game, Carder ranked among the top 20 quarterbacks nationally in yards (3,434), touchdowns (28) and completion percentage (67.2).
Western ranked second-to-last in the MAC in total defense giving up 434.1 yards per game, tackle Drew Nowak was named the league’s defensive player of the year after recording 20 tackles for loss.
Purdue
The Boilermakers totaled 80 points in the final three contests, converting 52.7 percent of their third downs, after scoring 70 in the previous four while making 27.5 percent on third down.
Defensively, the Boilermakers boast one of the best interior defenders in the nation in Kawann Short. The junior ranked 13th nationally with 17 tackles for loss and was tied for fourth in the Big Ten with 6 1/2 sacks.
Purdue did give up 26.4 points per game to rank near the bottom of the Big Ten.
The Boilermakers, 8-7 in bowl games, are making their first postseason appearance since beating Central Michigan 51-48 in the 2007 Motor City Bowl at Ford Field.
Western lost at Michigan and Illinois this season and have dropped six straight to Big Ten opponents since a 23-17 win over the Illini at Ford Field on Nov. 8, 2008; Purdue and Western Michigan will match up for the third time ever; the Boilermakers won 28-24 at home in the most recent meeting in 2002.
Nick’s Pick: Purdue 41 – Western 37
Comment: Expect an offensive showdown in Detroit was the Broncos can score points; unfortunately they also give up a ton. Western can win this game but they have yet to win a bowl game in their long football history.
This will be a battle between underachievers. Both teams enter this bowl game as middle-ranked teams in the respective divisions and both have 7-5 records. Louisville looked to be one of the main competitors for the Big East title early in the season, but the lack of passing game and leaky secondary provided issues for the Cardinals down the stretch. NC State on the other hand never seemed to show any consistency throughout the season; this was best exemplified by their shutout loss against the Florida State Seminoles on October 29. However, things turned around just a couple of weeks later and they dismanted the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers on November 19th.
Louisville enters this game with a slight edge in the running game, headed up by talented duo of Dominique Brown and Victor Anderson who combined for nearly 1,000 yards and 7 scores. NC State never really found much of a running game as they seemed to change personnel like a baby has diaper changes. NC State does have a significant edge in the passing game as QB Mike Glennon showed poise and accuracy all season long. The Cardinals’ Teddy Bridgewater will surely use his legs in this one, something that NC State should be used to from their times of enjoying QB Russell Wilson. This game will come down to the better passing game, and NC State, with the help of TE George Bryan and WR TJ Graham, should come out ready to air it out.
