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Cheatsheet update: Behind the WR numbers
By Vince Mullins | August 17, 2008
As camps have opened my perceptions of many college football offenses have changed. Coaches banter in vaguaries, ACLs get shredded, and quarterbacks are missing in action.
Given all the movement in my current WR list from the original one in July, I thought I would share some of the rationale.
Bryan Anderson and Dez Bryant flop spots while moving up
They have been in the low-teens on my cheatsheet the whole time, and both continue to creep higher as I grow less confident of Percy Harvin’s health and Malcolm Lane’s QB. This came up Thursday night in the FCB select draft - I had my choice of either at one point and went with Anderson (right, Icon SMI). Granted, the scoring awarded .5 points per reception but upon further reflection this makes sense for all scoring systems. I felt much better when I was able to get Dez in the next round anyway.
Casey Fitzgerald from #6 to #8
CFO Drew and I seriously broke down the Mighty Casey numbers from 2007 and I have nicknamed him the Black Swan due to the seventh-standard-deviation type numbers he puts up and how that mimics the concepts in the best-selling book by Massim Taleb.
Versus Navy and SMU alone he went 31-461T7, probably 90 fantasy points there alone. Rest of the season’s ten games? 80-861T5, by no means stellar and a quite pedestrian ypc.
“Lets not forget that Fitzgerald broke the magical 200 FP barrier”, said Drew Smith, “in which only 2 wideouts since 2000 have repeated 200+ the next season…and one has to assume Crabtree will…so are we saying that we are going to repeat the same amount repeating this year as we have seen this decade?”
So why only move him to #8? Because like Ashley Lelie back in the Hawaii days, YOU KNOW THESE BIG GAMES WILL HAPPEN. A 99-yd TD catch against ULM only adds to the volatile nature of Fitzgerald in the Mean Green Dodge Ball offense. You want to make him your #1 - just be aware of what you are buying and resist the temptation to play the matchups or you might miss out on a special game.
Duval Kamara from #55 to #23
The more I look at the Notre Dame schedule and the more I absorb the concept of a better o-line, a better Jimmy “Emu” Clausen and a proud program looking to return to glory, I really like a 6-5 225 pound wideout who will be a physical mismatch for college corners all season.
Stephen Williams (up) and Kenny Britt (down) switch 15 and 22 spots
The NFL career path of Ray Rice seems more likely to allow Rutgers’ opponents to blitz with abandon and not have to keep both safeties in the box. That moves Britt down the list, a concept that Daniel already had a good handle on with Mike Teel dropped on his list. I liken the Toledo offense to Notre Dame in that years of great production have waned in the last two years (where are you, Gradkowski?) so Williams ability to crank out six 100-yard games last year really stood out given the atrocious QB shuffling due to injury. I expect Williams to rocket higher as the offense navigates the paltry MAC defenses for the first two months of the campaign (Western Michigan and Miami (OH) blanket near Thanksgiving).
Greg Carr, Patrick Turner and Jaison Williams down
While it is fair to say that both will get under the NFL Draft microscope in January, they have yet to fulfill there immense potential given their immense physical presences. And none of these offenses have field generals that inspire me to battle with them. These macro-wideouts will be drafted earlier than past or future performance would deserve, but if you want to take a shot on these guys at WR3 or 4 range you will hardly be faulted.
Hawaii’s Malcolm Lane to #12 and Kealoha Pilares drops way down
Dave Reardon of Honolulu Star Bulletin paints the picture that destroys my early premise to support Pilares - the sophomore will be a backup who plays a lot, but a backup nonetheless. Seniors Aaron Bain and Mike Washington will man the slots, but will it matter if the QB situation remains tenuous and them early schedule beats them up? Per Reardon the starters left to right are Greg Salas, Bain, Washington and Lane.
Topics: Positional Analysis, Preview, Vince Mullins, Wide Receiver |
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