In last year’s Fantasy College Blitz Owner’s Playbook, our experts rated the recent fantasy strength of each conference to provide another layer of fantasy insight beyond player rankings.  We felt it was important for owners to have a basis on where fantasy gold could be mined.  This should serve as a precursor to our study on college football “dynasties”, discussed again this year by Vince Mullins.  For now, let’s revisit those 2007 conference rankings:

This year, a poll of Vince Mullins, Daniel Freer and Drew Smith shows quite a bit of change for 2008.  Each used their own methods to rank the 11 conferences.  I then assigned 11 points to their top pick all the way down to one point for their bottom pick.  I added those up to create a composite ranking and overall, it looks as if they sense a shift in power between conferences for 2008:

There are two significant gains taking place in these rankings.  The WAC moves up 3 spots, based on the stats put up last year combined with the outlook that they will hold up this year.  Teams such as Boise, Fresno and Utah took nice steps forward from 2006.  There is no expectation on them falling off.  Also, all of us here expect Hawaii to maintain their offensive prowess, despite the departure of June Jones.  Those details move the WAC to their new spot in the rankings. 

The biggest leap forward comes from CUSA.  UCF, Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina and Memphis had significant offensive growth from their 2006 numbers.  The naysayers will point out that Kevin Smith, Matt Forte and Chris Johnson are now gone, meaning the conference should regress.  However, the offensive systems are still in place and the defenses are still lackluster.  Also, this is where we see that June Jones name again….  He will take the helm at SMU and instantly increase the offensive output.  Not to be overshadowed, Larry Fedora is now calling the shots at Southern Miss after a few strong seasons in Stillwater, OK..     

All that aside, I wanted to focus the rest of this article on how the raw numbers match up against the perceptions of those polled.  Even though each of them used various quantitative methods to rank the conferences, there was also a degree of subjective analysis in play.  Qualitative analysis is important, but we shouldn’t ignore the stats either.  So to prove or disprove these rankings, I wanted to take it a step further.  I crunched the last 3 years of offensive fantasy output from each team, from each conference.  This would give me the average weighted fantasy points scored per team, which would be added up to get an overall conference tally.  Then I adjusted those numbers to equalize things since some conferences have more teams than others.  Based on that, we should have numbers that would give fantasy owners another tool to gauge conference strength measured on a 3 year track record in order better reflect each conference. 

I should also explain the fantasy scoring method used in this study.  Teams were awarded 1 pt for every 10 yards gained by WRs, RBs, TEs.  Those same players also received 6 pts per TD scored.  QBs were awarded 1 pt for every 25 yards passing, with 4 pts per TD.  QB rushing stats were treated the same as RB rushing stats.  Lastly, kickers were added to the mix with 1 pt for XPs and 3 for FGs.  I felt it was important to include the kickers since high point totals from that position also signal conference strength.  Additionally, with the three year look, some years the offensive drives resulted in FGs instead of TDs and in other years, it was the opposite.  So including the kickers smoothed out those variances from year to year. 

So without further ado, here are the results (FPPT = Fantasy Points per Team):

Two outliers exist here when we break down the actual numbers.  First, the Pac 10 rates much higher in this version of the rankings.  When I look at last year, there was significant improvement by many teams in that conference with little fanfare.  Sure, some of the powerhouse teams don’t have quite the talent they are used to – however, it appears that other schools are becoming more competitive.  You might want to keep that in mind for a few sleepers if the Pac 10 is overlooked by owners on draft day. 

Second, the other difference is the lower ranking by the Big East and Independents versus our expert poll.  In years past, this has been a conference that didn’t offer much use outside of Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame and Navy.  However, we saw Cincinnati, Rutgers (they adding passing to their arsenal) and USF (they added offense in general to their arsenal) move forward.  Based on the numbers and the rumblings that Louisville might not perform its usual Louisville routine (1,267 fantasy points per year), this statistical breakdown on the conference might prove to be a more accurate reflection. 

Either way, we’ve given you two different ways to look at each of the conferences.  If you are more inclined to go by the numbers, the second ranking system will create a foundation to support how you use our upcoming cheatsheets.  If the expert opinion poll is more your style, then use those rankings as a building block for your fantasy teams.  Everything in this Owner’s Playbook is designed to give you the information you need to be prepared for the upcoming fantasy college football season.

Related posts:

1. FCB 2008 CONFERENCE ALL-FANTASY TEAMS (All Conferences, All Of Them)
2. CONFERENCE USA 2008 ALL-FANTASY TEAM
3. 2009 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE ALL-FANTASY TEAM
4. Graham Harrell is our Army “Find Your Strength” Player of the Week
5. A survey of college coaches by conference