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Fantasy Dynasties
By Vince Mullins | July 7, 2008
If you are forward-thinking enough to have searched for and found our site, I know that you are looking for insight that makes your draft preparation more effective, not just efficient.
When faced with 120 FBS schools (no more Division 1, you know), it is important to identify the schools and coaching staffs that consistently produce above average offensive numbers.
You already know that a Texas Tech WR has a better chance of outperformance rather than a WR from Ole Miss - this is the second year we have taken this concept to the next level with our Offensive Dynasty Study.
(Not endorsed by Joan Collins, Linda Evans, nor Heather Locklear)
The entire study can be found on my earlier article . Today I will focus on those Top 20 equal-weight rankings but apply some qualitative work for 2008 (Lots of in-depth team previews coming over the next month):
#1 Texas Tech
Coach Mike Leach made his name as offensive coordinator during the Josh Heupel era at Oklahoma. Since taking over the top spot in Lubbock he has never disappointed the fantasy world. The onslaught happens with big-time recruits and walk-ons alike as the system turns out running backs with 15 TD’s, quarterbacks with 50 TD’s and multiple receivers with ten TD’s. “The starting QB for the Red Raiders has averaged 4,500 yards and 35 TD’s over the last four seasons. Write it down - the Tech QB is always in the top three,” said Drew Smith, our Chief Fantasy Officer. With Graham Harrell possibly a value at the #1 pick, all-world WR Michael Crabtree and an easy out-of-conference schedule, it is fair to expect record-setting numbers in 2008.
#T2 Hawaii
June Jones fine-tuned his run-and-shoot in the NFL and turned in some huge numbers, but nothing like the success (and the suntan) he earned in Hawaii. He has moved to the Dallas metro area to revive a once proud SMU Mustangs program, but how far should the Warriors fall? The offense has averaged over 380 yards per game since 2001 (most with Timmy Chang at the helm), but it has never run as smoothly as 06-07 under the leadership of Colt Brennan and his 72% completion percentage.
Brennan and the top three wideouts all move on, but Head Coach Greg McMacklin kept the Lee Brothers to coach up both sides of the ball. We do not expect any big changes except look for a bigger RB and more plays with the QB under center. Stay tuned as the roster expectations will fluctuate even after fall practice begins - I would expect a drop but not outside the top 30.
#T2 Louisville
While the team was a huge disappointment in the win column in 2007, the offense finished at #11. I would expect you could find some value here as expectations have dropped. The big question for 2007 was how the loss of Coach Bobby Petrino will affect the Cardinals. We didn’t expect much drop-off with our pre-season #2 QB in Brian Brohm and stud WRs returning. However, injuries really derailed the studs like Douglass and Brohm. Steve Kragthorpe’s NFL- style offenses have been strong in Tulsa and have shown tremendous balance including strong TE play. Louisville has produced a lot of NFL talent at RB over the past decade, but the big question is how will new QB Hunter Cantwell do in his first year as full-time starter. It remains to be seen how he meshes with all the new wideouts.
#4 Texas
Notice how Longhorn yearly ranks have been trending downward, but that happens when Vince Young goes pro I suppose. Freshman QB Colt McCoy looked great in 2006, but he regressed in 2007. The offense leaned more on RB Jamaal Charles and the defense was quite awful [link to final BlitzIndex]. Still OC Greg Davis got top 20 numbers out of the offense. I think the biggest plus for the Longhorns in 2008 will be the addition of DC Will Muschamp from Auburn, whom our Drew Howard called the most important off-season hire in the nation. His attacking style should give the Longhorns better field position and I would expect more scoring efficiency with a third-year starter under center.
#5 Boise State
Boise is the highest scoring offense in the game over the last nine years. Dan Hawkins started it all for the Broncos, and Chris Peterson took the ball and ran (and trick played) with it. The QB tradition is strongest with huge numbers put up by Ryan Dinwiddie and Bart Hendricks over the last ten years. RBs have played well also, going back to the amazing 2003 season by Brock Forsey (32 TD’s). Ian Johnson has been less effective as he gets older, I am not sure whether it is injuries or a philosophy in favor of a RB committee. LOTS of turnover on the roster as a new QB needs to be worked in for the second year in a row. Expect our WAC correspondent Kevan Lee to keep you up-to-date on the roster happenings.
#6 West Virginia
Ignoring the off-field issues during the Rodriguez tenure, the Mountaineers run the ball like no one else ever has - they have ranked in the Top 7 in rushing the past four years and most of those yards go to the starting QB and RB. New coach Bill Stewart says he would like to pass more, but Tom Osborne used to say the same thing. Patrick White is the best dual threat QB in the nation (notice the improvement from 2005 to 06) and demands to be a top five pick in every draft if passing TDs are deemphasized on your scoring system. I also expect Noel Devine will continue the yards and TD binges common in the Appalachian mountains.
#7 Houston
The fact that their equal weight ranking matches the recent-weighted speaks to consistency during the Art Briles regime. Coach Briles took his system with him to Baylor, in comes rising offensive coordinator star Kevin Sumlin from Oklahoma to take over the Cougars. We expect a bit of a drop but not much since no one really plays defense in C-USA and he has two good QBs coming back. The issue is finding new producers at RB and WR. Not easy to replace the highest drafted WR (speedy Donnie Avery), but reports from Houston say LJ Castille is a beast.
#8 USC
“Pete Carroll may not have had a productive RB last year, but that has been the only blip for a program infested with talent,” said our Daniel Freer. Notice the big difference in the equal versus weighted rankings (#14). You should expect a dropoff when two Heisman winners move on, but last year JD Booty couldn’t get them into the top quartile. USC serves as the perfect example of one of the redflags in this top-down analysis. Trojans stash talent so deep on their roster that it is hard for an indivdual fantasy player to stand out. Case in point for 2008 - four WR will probably be first day NFL draft picks (Turner, Hazelton, Ausberry, and Razorback transfer Damian Williams ) so I would expect it would be hard for any one of them to separate from the pack of QB Mark Sanchez targets. The RB glut is well chronicled elsewhere, suffice it to say the same issue exists here. Safest picks in 2008 are QB Sanchez and the kicker.
#9 Navy
The last of the true Wishbone teams, Paul Johnson’s Midshipmen always produced a RB and/or a QB that is a high fantasy consideration. Johnson has moved on to Georgia Tech, but status quo should remain with OC Ken Niumatalolo now admiraling the troops . Beware of multiple RBs splitting carries, but the pattern of bonecrushing fullbacks who score ten TD’s cannot be underestimated. This years battleship is Eric Kettani (might be the safest pick in the RB2 tier). If you pick the QB Kaipo-Noa Keheaku-Enhada , you will need to work on the pronunciation (we call him Special K in the office). The good news is you should have plenty of opportunities as we expect lots of scores with his return to health. Last year Daniel Freer thought Kaipo would lead the nation in rushing TDs - was he just a year early?
#T10 Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane rocketed up fantasy charts in 2004 when TE Garret Mills racked up huge numbers. Last year was special under first year coach Tood Graham and fourth-year QB Paul Smith as they led the nation in yards per game and were a rare team with a 5000 yard passer and three 1000 yard receivers. Everyone but Smith is back plus sixth-year eligibility RB Courtney Tennial returns, but a big gap exists where Smith stood. Graham possesses a strong record of performance (see Rice 2005-6) so expect the skill position strength to help out the new signal caller.
#T10 Oregon
Love or hate the uniforms, you gotta love the numbers from the Ducks. Coach Mike Belotti earned his reputation as a QB incubator with tremendous names during his tenure (although he cant be faulted that Joey Harrington is now the worst QB in NFL history). This guy just gets numbers from all areas, even TE, every single year. 2008 squad is loaded again at WR, but a new signal caller has yet to be christened and they must replace all-world talent Johnathan Stewart.
#12 California
Coach Jeff Tedford has shunned the NFL for five years and has Berkeley excited about things other than Nobel Prizes these days. While Cal is known for a wide-open offense, it is their RBs that gets them ranked this high (Lynch, Forsett, Arrington, Echinobe). You need to know who will carry the ball for
the Bears because he is a lock for 1300+ total yards. Also, let’s not forget about the passing game that produces great fantasy QBs; however this year there looks to be a dead heat between Nate Longshore and bowl hero/Oregon state goat Kevin Riley. Bears also tend to spread the ball among several receivers and that should be the case with an all new squad here.
#13 Missouri
This number should not be unlucky for the Tigers. Brad Smith was a one man show but QB Chase Daniel’s Tigers have attacked from all angles as they shoot up these rankings. Tony Temple provided ground support but his graduation leaves a big gap - that should be more than covered when WR Danario Alexander returns healthy to pair with electric Jeremy Maclin and steady TE Chase Coffman.
#14 Florida
This is all about Tim Tebow and his contributions over the last two years - notice how the weighted rank is up at #8. Curious how the addition of RB Emmanuel Moody and a flood of new receiver will affect Anointed One specifically in 2008, but the offense is sure to continue the amazing career path of coach Urban Meyer.
#T15 LSU
This is the definition of team approach, and like Navy, the Tigers never have a singular superstar. Unlike Navy, LSU offense has received much help from their defense for field position. Maybe QB Ryan Perrilloux would have been that guy if he got his mind right, but now the OC Gary Crowton has to work with a couple of journeymen. Not only does 2008 look like a down year for the entire offense but depth at all positions make any player here a risk.
#T15 Nevada
Every one talks about the Boise and Hawaii offensive juggernauts, but Chris Ault and his pistol offense just keeps on firing. QB Colin Kaepernick had two monster performances last year in relief of injured Nick Graziano so they will battle for playing time this year. We fantasy guys would prefer to see Colin due to the running dimension. Speaking of running, RB Luke Lippincott looks like the next Top Ten RB in a great line of Wolves, and WR Marko Mitchell has NFL talent.
#17 Purdue
A very proud tradition of the Joe Tiller offenses is losing some steam but is still effective. Putting the political histrionics behind us [link] for Tiller’s final season, we should expect another solid season from QB Curtis Painter and RB Kory Sheets. WR Greg Orton returns as the leading pass catcher and has some ability, but youngsters will have to step up to keep the Boilermakers near the top.
#18 Ohio State
I think most readers would expect the Buckeyes to be higher. However, the transition after Troy Smith graduated did not go so well in 2007 (not even top third!) hence the drag in the rating. The Buckeye defense has been amazing for most of the decade and that helps the TDs. With RB Beanie Wells a legit Heisman candidate, this offense should improve. Also, have you heard of that new QB Terrelle Pryor?
#19 Washington State
You can see they are trending the wrong way (8 spot variance to the weighted rank), but a new head coach and a new QB could change that. Paul Wulff comes over from Eastern Washington and brings a no-huddle spread to match up with a new QB. At least they have a top ten permastarter wideout in Brandon Gibson.
#20 UTEP
Mike Price only owns about a decades’ worth of strong offenses under his watch at Washington State and here (we wont talk about Bama). It looks like the Miners are heading back up the shaft. Notice the consistent finishes in the yearly rankings. Young QB Trevor Vittatoe, big WR Jeff Moturi and a stable of RBs make this unit look solid for 2008.
Topics: College Football, Owner's Playbook, Vince Mullins |
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