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Future Pros: Tim Tebow
By John Huss | May 28, 2008
Fantasy College Blitz has provided our take on the players in the NFL draft since Day One. Rather than waiting until next April, we begin a new series entitled Future Pros . We will analyze players that are likely in the crop of potential draftees for 2009.
This opening article will begin at the top by breaking down Mr. Heisman himself, Tim Tebow . I know a few of you are thinking I’m taking the lay-up with this selection. However, I believe many will be surprised with my final determination on Tebow.
Before we even get into Tebow’s body of work, let’s check on the track record of the man who created this one man Fantasy machine. Urban Meyer made his mark at Bowling Green, where he coached a QB by the name of Josh Harris . As a full time starter in the 2001 season, Josh Harris threw for 2,425 yards with 19 TD’s. He also ran for 737 yards and 20 TD’s. To some degree, he was a Tebow Jr.
Where did this great season take Josh Harris? He played one year of pro ball with the Cleveland Browns. Actually saying he played is a bit of a misstatement as he never took one snap.
After two seasons, Urban Meyer quickly moved on to coach at Utah. While there, he was able to groom Alex Smith for a role in the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers. In his senior season, Alex Smith threw for 2,952 yards resulting in 32 TD’s while rushing for 631 yards and scoring 10 times on the ground. However, those fancy numbers have translated to 3 sub par seasons in the pros. In his 3 NFL seasons, Alex Smith has 4,679 yards, 19 TD’s and an impressive 31 interceptions.
Those three seasons at Utah spring boarded Meyer to Florida. This was a nice test for his system since it would be against the bigger and badder defenses of the SEC. Urban Meyer’s offensive schemes had Chris Leak nearly average 3,000 yards in each of his two seasons. However, Chris Leak isn’t even in the NFL at this time.
Those of you who have sleuth like training might be sensing a trend here. These QB’s have gaudy college numbers and a “Where are they Now” resume in the pros. I think it’s important to add this backdrop to the Tebow hype, as it may be short lived. In his one season as a starter, Tebow put up 3,286 yards with 32 TD’s. If that wasn’t enough, you could have split him in two. This would result in an equally impressive running back that went for 895 yards and hit pay dirt for another 23 TD’s. It’s key to bring focus to those running stats. In the NFL, he will not get to run like that. Look at Alex Smith…did he suddenly lose his mobility? Whether from a team’s desire to protect an asset or better defenses than he has ever faced in college, Tebow will need to throw more to get the NFL attention as a QB.
Now one can point to his passing stats and say with certainty that he can sling it for whichever team has the first pick. However, I argue that those stats are deceptive since most college defenses couldn’t decide if they needed to cover him to run or throw. However, here’s what I get when I break down the four Gator losses from last year. During the season, Tebow averaged 69 yards per game. In the losses, it dropped to 46 yards per game. Without the run, his passing average also dropped from 252 yards a game to a paltry 187 yards. He’ll see more of that at the pro level where there aren’t many Western Kentucky’s on the schedule.
As I’ve shown in a previous paragraph, Urban Meyer has a great system that allows for high end offensive numbers. Tebow won’t have the luxury of such a system in the pros. As Alex Smith could attest, he probably misses that the most as he has 31 completions to the wrong team.
One other aspect is the past track record of Heisman trophy winning QB’s. The names Andre Ware, Ty Detmer, Gino Torretta, Charlie Ward and Eric Crouch point to guys who didn’t cut it in the NFL (alright, Ward knew his limitations and went NBA instead). There have been some passable names like Doug Flutie, Danny Wuerffel and Chris Weinke . These guys had a couple of seasons that had merit but overall they were disappointments compared to the expectations set upon them. Matt Leinert and Troy Smith still have the jury out on them. Vinny Testaverde compiled 46,233 yards on many mediocre teams. The sole exception to all of this so far in his NFL career is Carson Palmer .
Don’t get me wrong, Tebow has the potential to be a good pro. He has intangibles such as toughness, character ( missionary work ) and leadership skills. He’ll need to rebound from a disappointing 9-4 record where the close losses put a shadow of doubt on his ability to come through in the clutch. However, if he has a great junior season, he will surely get drafted much higher than he should because of those college stats. One mock draft has him going at the top pick . The evidence shows there is a quite a bit of risk for the NFL franchise that decides to take him that high.
Topics: College Football, Future Pros, John Huss, Pro Football, Quarterback, SEC |
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