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Going Deep: The Replacement Vince
By Drew Smith | November 12, 2008
This weeks edition of Going Deep is brought to you by me, Drew Smith. I’m the guy who spends his days buried in running back data and information. With Vince off exploring the Continental Divide, I am pulling double duty and will throw out some of my thoughts on the WR position. I admit it will be coming at you a bit differently than the normal weekly article.
As a reminder, running backs are much more predictable because we have an idea of the quality of the rushing offense, the talent of the back, the talent of the defense the back is going against and most importantly number of carries we can expect. Add in the number of points the offense of the back is expected to score and now we have a somewhat predictable number of TDs the RB has a chance to get. The WR carries a lot of the same predictable traits with the exception being the number of receptions and potential TDs. So how can we make lineup decisions for the receivers that goes beyond just random luck?
The first thing we need to embrace is that there will always a huge amount of luck with receivers so rule #1 is don’t bench the superstars. While this is true for most positions, it is especially true for the receiver position because when dealing with so much luck you want the most talented fantasy receivers playing.
Now that you have your superstar receivers in the lineup, you are probably looking at a handful of interchangeable receivers for a spot or two in your starting lineup. So rule #2 is when dealing with a list of similar receivers start the one that is expected to play in a game that is a shootout. Even if your other receiver is a quote unquote more talented Wr or even the team’s #1 WR, if the players have similar stats go with the guy playing in an offense that needs to score 30+ to win the game.
Often receivers have their stats grossly inflated from a big game or two. So rule #3 is to look at the trend of catches over the last 3 or 4 games. After digging deeper, it may be clear that one receiver has been much more consistent than the others despite the overall similar stat lines.
The last rule to consider (yes this is rule #4) is when all else fails, go with the receiver who is playing with a poised veteran QB. What makes fantasy college football great is how unpredictable things can get because we are dealing with 18-22 year old players who can get rattled and be thrown off their game easily. Start the WR with a QB who has proven to remain calm and unphased by crazy things that can take place in a game. That QB has a greater chance of getting his offense back on track without imploding.
Working off of Vince’s PermaStarters List:
Austin Collie, BYU at Air Force (Blitz Index # 14) - Collie has been one of the most consistent fantasy receivers this year and although Air Force may be able to control the ball enough to limit the plays the Cougars offense gets, their players will not be able to stop Collie from having a decent game.
Jeremy Maclin, Missouri at Iowa State (107) - Maclin is a bit hit or miss and with Iowa State unlikely to be within reach in the game after about 5mins, it is not crazy to think Maclin sees his plays limited. However with the upside being 35+ points, it is impossible to sit him.
Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State at Colorado (85) - Bryant is another one of these receivers who can put up 8 points or 48 points and of course you can never sit him. Unlike Maclin, he seems to feed on the lesser teams so he should be poised for a huge game this weekend against the Buffaloes.
Chris Williams, NMSU at Fresno State (91) - This is a tough matchup for Williams as he and the Aggies offense struggles against superior talent like they will be facing this week. He will still see 10+ balls thrown his way so start him and hope for at least a TD.
Eric Decker, Minnesota at Wisconsin (60) - Reports have come out declaring Decker out this week vs. the Badgers so please sit (however check this weeks Triage Time for any updates).
Percy Harvin, Florida hosts South Carolina (11) - While Harvin has yet to have any monster fantasy games outside the Mississippi game, he is Meyer’s favorite toy and always gets his touches. This makes him one of the more consistent receivers. The Gamecocks have a great defense but honestly Harvin is just in a whole other realm and should be fine for his normal 15-25points.
Brennan Marion, Tulsa at Houston (79) - As David Johnson has grown as a QB this season, we are seeing him spread the ball more and more with Marion production taking a major hit over the last few weeks. This game could easily eclipse 100 points so expect Marion to be busy making this a great week to expect a rebound.
Emmanuel Sanders, SMU at UTEP (115) - Sanders has not been the super-star that most predicted this season but with UTEP on the schedule this week there should be plenty of points put up. This is as good of a time as ever to have Sanders blow up.
Aldrick Robinson, SMU at UTEP (115) - Robinson has over-taken Sanders as the star WR in June Jones offense and should have a huge game against one of the defenses in the nation.
Brandon Banks, Kansas State hosts Nebraska (100) - Common theme with these Big 12 receivers is the inconsistency from week to week and Banks fits perfectly. A battle of two defenses that love to give up points will provide Banks with plenty of balls thrown his way.
Jamarko Simmons, Western Michigan host Toledo (103) - Simmons is as consistent as they come and is a virtual lock for 15-25points this week.
Michael Crabtree, Jarett Dillard, James Casey and Casey Fitzgerald are idle - Tough week to be without Crabtree and Dillard for teams hoping to progress to the next round of the playoffs and leagues that require a TE, losing Casey might not be recoverable.
Topics: College Football, Drew Smith, Going Deep, Wide Receiver |
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