Heisman Winner? The Sooner You Read This…The Sooner You Know

December 10th, 2008 by Drew Smith

The Heisman Trophy is one of the most talked about awards in all of sports. It is often the cause for heavy debate amongst fans as they have completely different ideas of what this award is all about.

According to official Heisman Trophy website, the award goes to “the most outstanding college football player”. This of course is little help as outstanding could mean a lot of different things. Based on the history of the past Heisman winners, it is safe to say that ”outstanding” does not mean the player with the most gaudy stats. Or the most dominant college player. Or the player with the brightest NFL future.

In the world of the Heisman, the word ”outstanding” means which high profile, offensive skill player, from one of the Top 10ish teams possessing the best statistics to justify getting the award. There have been a few exceptions over the years to the above statement but it required a lot of factors to fall into place. Unfortunately, this means we can eliminate all the mid-major players like Nate Davis, MiQuale Lewis, Kellen Moore and Brian Johnson even though they play on a Top 25 team and lead their teams to big bowl games.

This statement also means we get to eliminate Shonn Greene, Donald Brown, Javon Ringer, Dez Bryant, LeSean McCoy and Case Keenum. All of these players have the stats that would be consistent with past winners but realistically have no chance at winning.

You might be saying that is unfair…why does the player have to be from a Top 10 ranked Big 6 conference team? The rationale, whether flawed or not, is that these players put up their stats against inferior teams and was not good enough to lead their teams to victory against the good opponents. If a player can’t perform great and lead his team to a near flawless season, then he is obviously not the most outstanding player in college.

There are four players that fit all the criteria to win the Heisman this year and they are Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Graham Harrell and Colt McCoy. If a 5th player was invited to New York, it would just be a free trip and some TV time. That player should be Shonn Greene of Iowa.

I admit that the media plays a big factor in determining the winner as it is impossible to ignore some of the hype that they create. We already know that Bradford, McCoy, Tebow, Harrell have the stats, the victories and the media backing to justify winning the award. So which of them should win? Its easy to determine who should win the Heisman if you use the same criteria that eliminated all the other worthy players. Any player can accumulate huge stats against terrible teams but which of stood out against the top teams in college?

Sam Bradford QB, Oklahoma: Bradford had 7 games against teams that are or have spent most of the season on the Top 25. The teams are Cincinnati, TCU, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Missouri. Against these teams, Bradford led the Sooners to a 6-1 record. His accumulated stats in those games were 2,719 yards, 27 TDs, 4 INTs with a 69% completion ratio. Spelled out another way, he averaged 388 ypg with 3.8 TDs against .5 INTs. For the season, Bradford averaged 351 yards per game and 3.6 TDs so it is safe to say his stats are not inflated against inferior teams. In the one loss this season to Texas, Bradford completed 71.8% of his passes for 387 yards and 5 TDs (however, he did have 2 INTs). Much of the media hype has been made of how Tebow put the team on his shoulder after UF’s loss. How much has been said about how Bradford responded to Oklahoma’s loss? Guess what…after the Texas loss, Bradford led the Sooners to seven straight victories. The team averaged 60+ points in those games and Bradford threw only 1 INT the rest of the way.

Colt McCoy QB, Texas: McCoy was 4-1 against top teams in Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech and Kansas. His cumulative stats were 1,554 yards with 9 TDs and 2 INTs. He also had a mind-blowing 77% completion ratio to go with 189 yards rushing and 4 TDs on the ground. He averaged 310 ypg and 1.8 TDs. A lot has been made about McCoy’s rushing yards but it appears those stats are a bit inflated as he only averaged 37.8 ypg. On the season, McCoy passing average was 287 ypg and 2.67 TDs so his results in the big games is sort of a mixed bag. He threw more for yards but his already low TD production dropped by almost a full point. In the one loss to Texas Tech, McCoy had his worse game in regards to passing rating as he only completed 58% of his passes for 294 yards and 2 TDs, 1 INT.

Tim Tebow QB, Florida: Tebow had 4 games against top teams in Miami , LSU, Georgia and Alabama. Honestly, if Miami and LSU didn’t have their history, they would never have been ranked. SEC fans have long argued that their conference was head and shoulders above everyone else making their schedule harder. Any team or player that can come out on top over the rest of the conferences deserves to be crowned every title and award. In a lot of years, there is a case to be made but not this year as this might be the most down season of the SEC in my lifetime. This means Tebow will not get the ”well he played in the SEC” benefit of the doubt this year and will need to show it in the numbers to get my endorsement.

In the four games against ranked teams, Tebow completed 65% of his passes for 836 yards and 9 TDs. He did this with 0 picks plus added in 173 yards rushing with 4 TDs. On a per game basis, this equals 209 ypg passing with a 2.25 TDs with an additional 43 yards and a score on the ground. On the season, he threw for an average of 193 ypg with 2.15 TDs. His rushing stats for the season on a per game basis were 43 and a tad bit under one TD. As you can see, Tebow put up almost identical stats regardless of the opponent. Interestingly enough in the one loss this season, Tebow had a big passing game throwing for 319 yards and 1 TD with no picks.

Graham Harrell QB, Texas Tech: Harrell had 4 games against top teams in Oklahoma , Texas , Oklahoma St and Kansas where he went 3-1. His cumulative stats in those four games were 1,677 yards and 16 TDs. He had 1 INT with a 71% completion ratio. He averaged 419 ypg and 4 TDs. For the season, Harrell averaged 395 yards and 3.4 TDs so it is clear that he picked up his game for the bigger matchups. In the one loss of the season, Harrell had his lowest completion percentage at 60% and threw below his average with 261 yards and 3 TDs.

Shonn Greene RB, Iowa: I include Greene in here to make a point. He has the stats and plays in a big enough conference to win the Heisman in a land-slide. However, he will be lucky to finish in the top 5 in votes because his team finished with 4 losses. Some of you are saying ”whatever dude” – Shonn Greene should win over the four players mentioned above. He ran for 100+ yards in every single game this season and scored at least one TD in every game except one. There is no point in breaking down his games because he played great in every game, especially in the games that Iowa lost. Unfortunately, the other reason there is no point in breaking it down is because he has zero chance at winning. He’s already been eliminated in the voter’s mind as mentioned at the beginning.

So the million dollar question is who should win the Heisman based on the unwritten rules for determining a winner?

First off, we can eliminate Shonn Greene for reasons already stated. In fact, Greene could have rushed for 2,500 yards and still not have won the Heisman this year with the field being so strong (see Smith, Kevin). He was a great story considering he wasn’t even on the team in spring. The media would be all over that…if he had put up these stats on Alabama or USC.

Graham Harrell is also easily eliminated because he doesn’t have the stats to support him winning the Heisman this year. All this despite him playing in a system where he attempts 50+ passes in most games. He finished 9^th in QB Rating and threw for less TDs and more INTs than Bradford while playing a weaker schedule. In general, Harrell did step up his game against tougher competition but in the one loss on the year had one of his worst games. Harrell had plenty of hype coming into the season and Texas Tech’s season was strong enough to give him an opportunity to win it but in the end he just didn’t out-play the others in the field.

I put Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy in the same category and could make a strong case to why one player should finish higher than the other. However, that discussion would be for who should be 2^nd. As you can imagine, a big debate on who deserves to finish 2^nd and 3^rd is not really all that interesting. If we looked at the stats only, then Bradford is the winner without discussion as he accumulated the more impressive resume, against a tougher schedule and stepped up production in big-time games. Tebow and McCoy are getting a lot of love because they are perceived to have this extra drive and put their teams on their shoulders and carried them to victory. While I believe this is true on some level, I think it is unfair to not include Bradford in this group. As mentioned earlier, after a tough loss against Texas , Bradford put the offense on his shoulders and was unstoppable for the final 7 games. In the season finale against Oklahoma State, Bradford tore ligaments in his finger and didn’t miss a snap. It is undeniable that both McCoy and Tebow are the heart of their teams but that is not enough to over-take Sam Bradford.

While Bradford seems like the obvious choice to me, he still faces a challenge to actually winning the award. The Heisman is very much a regionalized vote. While Tebow will dominate the South, Bradford must battle McCoy and Harrell for votes in the Southwest. If the voters in the region give McCoy/Harrell some love, then it could be enough to give Tebow the award.

Let’s hope the voters don’t let regional bias decide the Heisman and the player most worthy, Sam Bradford, is awarded the Heisman Trophy.

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