Holiday Bowl Preview: Lots of O for everyone

December 30th, 2008 by Vince Mullins

The Holiday Bowl was my #1 selection on the “Fantasy Bowl Draft” for three reasons – One, my objective intellect saw this as one of three bowls not in the BCS that put two ranked teams in opposition in what looks to be an offensive orgy. Two, I have been adopted into the Oklahoma State family since marrying the Outstanding Senior of 1995. Three, as a uniform junkie you have to appreciate two teams that aren’t afraid of a little color…

(Word is that OSU will be in all-white, Oregon in the model that #10 Dennis Dixon is sporting)

Please do not think for a moment that I am disrespecting Oregon in the least. Ducks are on a roll – only Cal kept them under 35 points since Halloween and Oregon put up 50+ in three of their last five. Also you have to appreciate a coach like Mike Belotti (and coach in waiting Chip Kelly) who can get a team pointed in the right direction after playing four quarterbacks in a season.

This is truly a matchup of amazing offensive firepower (both squads in top ten in rushing) facing average defensive corps, likely leading to enough scoring for the whole family to enjoy. You just can’t get enough O tonight.

SPECIAL: TeamRankings.com has the Holiday Bowl as one of its teaser giveaway games – witness the awesome power of their statistical services. Check it out here.

Stats, trends and cool conversation starters for the girls at the party/bar after the jump…

2008 Holiday Bowl
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State, 8 pm on Tuesday, Dec 30.

Fun facts for the chicks at the Watch Party

Oklahoma State may be the best three-loss team in a long time – only losses were to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas, each of which was in the thick of the national title race until the last weekend of the regular season.

Both teams throttled Washington State this year – hardly newsworthy but their only common opponent.

Twenty years ago to the day, Oklahoma State Head Coach Mike Gundy played QB for the Cowboys in the 1988 Holiday Bowl – a 62-14 win over Wyoming. He played well, but the contest will be remembered for RB Barry Sanders capping a Heisman Trophy campaign with FIVE touchdowns and 222 rushing yards.

When Oregon has the ball

Ducks #9 offense faces Cowboys #66 defense

Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly brought his version of the spread over from New Hampshire a few years back, and the Oregon offense consistently finishes in the top 20 nationally. In 2008 he was awarded the “Head Coach in waiting” position once Head Coach Mike Belotti chooses to move to an administrative position.

This year’s spread is different than most as it has focused on the run after numerous QB injuries. Jeremiah Masoli, who started the year as a WR, moved in to the QB slot midway through the season and finally found a groove in November. The passing game is almost non-existent (only completing 54%), rendering some talened WRs like Jaison Williams to nothing more than “wide tackles” – but credit Williams and others for embracing their blocking roles as the Ducks are tenth in the nation yards/point and points/play. RBs LeGerrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson need be feared since they average over six yards per carry behind a talented O-line.

I have to wonder if the Pokes Defense is better than the numbers since they faced four of the nation’s ten best offenses. The strength of schedule favors the Cowboys in this argument but unfortunately the Pokes D is 71st in the nation in yards/play allowed (5.43).

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Cowboys #6 offense faces Ducks #60 defense

While the BlitzIndex places the Cowboy’s offense at #6 in the nation for efficiency, I could make a case that they are the third most dangerous only behind the two teams in the BCS Title Game. HC/OC Mike Gundy runs the ball twice as often as he throws it, but when QB Zac Robinson goes airborne the Pokes lead the nation in yards per pass play. WR Dez Bryant was unstoppable for most of the season, but better defenses tended to shade coverage his way to negate him – that worked except at Missouri when Damian Davis came up big.

Any discussion of the Cowboy offense has to start with RB Kendall Hunter with over 170 yards from scrimmage (7th nationally) and 15 TD. Whether the Pokes spread out the formation or line up in the I, Hunter is shifty enough to make big gains and powerful enough to not go sown on first contact.

The Ducks most disturbing stat may be their downfall tonight – they are 115th in the nation in Red Zone Efficiency Defense, allowing opponents to score on 92% (46-50, 31 TD) of their visits inside the 20. Cowboys offense scores 90% of the time, #13 in the land and the true Achilles’ heel in the Ducks armor.

What Vegas says

Oklahoma State is a 2.5 pt favorite and the total is at 77, so Sin City expects a 40-37ish OSU win.

What Mullins says

This is such a great matchup, I have to lean to the Cowboys on this one given their defense is likely a little better than the numbers say and the Ducks are so bad in RZ defense. Both teams tend to be over the total but bowl season has not bared that out yet:

Oklahoma State 34, Oregon 28

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Tags: Givin her the O-face, Holiday Bowl, Oklahoma State Cowboys

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