Mock NFL Draft 2.20
February 21st, 2009 by Drew Smith
This is the first edition of my Mock Drafts that will be updated throughout the next 2 months leading to the NFL Draft. A flaw in all Mock Drafts is the inability to account for trades that always happen. I currently have only one RB being taken in the 1st round in this mock draft but the reality is that some team would likely trade up and take a Chris Wells. Mark Sanchez is another example as someone that could drop to the bottom third of the draft but in reality a team will likely trade up into the teens and grab him. I admit it is so early in the process that some of these picks may look silly come April but with regards to the information out there currently, the draft tendencies and my personal experience this is how I would expect the draft to play out if held today. (Feb 20th)
1) Detroit (0-16) Jason Smith, OT, Baylor- Over the next two months the top three tackles will battle to be the top pick as new head coach Jim Schwartz takes a page from the Dolphins from last year. Signability is also another reason for Detroit to pass on Matthew Stafford and elect to take a franchise tackle who they can agree on a contract before the draft. Smith is viewed as having the most upside of the three and stated he would not hold out making him the Lions choice. Obviously, Stafford remains an option if he can convince Detroit is more than just the top QB in the draft but actually a franchise QB worthy of the contract he would demand.
See the rest of my Round One projections…
2) St. Louis (2-14) Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia- The Rams need a left tackle and after missing out on Jake Long last year will choose between Monroe and Andre Smith. Monroe fits better for the Rams than Smith which makes him the easy pick at #2. The wildcard is Michael Crabtree who if he runs a faster than expected 40 time could prove too tough to pass by.
3) Kansas City (2-14) Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia- The Chiefs have a completely new staff from the GM down which usually means they want their own franchise QB to build around. The Falcons were in the same situation and nabbed the top quarterback in the draft last year in Matt Ryan. The Chiefs will look to copy this and will jump all over taking Stafford with the 3rd pick. If Stafford is gone then or they just don’t view him as a franchise QB, then OLB Aaron Curry becomes a likely selection.
4) Seattle (4-12) Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech- Seattle has a several other key areas in which they could fill with this spot but Crabtree will prove too good to pass up at assuming he doesn’t tank the 40 time. B.J. Raji will get heavy consideration by the Seattle front office at this pick as well.
5) Cleveland (4-12) Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest- The Browns need help on the defensive side of the ball making this pick likely to come down to Curry or CB Malcolm Jenkins. A strong case will be made for both players but in the end getting pressure on the QB will win out as the Browns produced over 17 sacks last season.
6) Cincinnati (4-11-1) Andre Smith, OT, Alabama- Smith is good enough that he could easily go 1st overall and no one would make too much of a deal out of it. The Bengals desperately need help on the offensive line and would be ecstatic to see Curry still on the board here.
7) Oakland (5-11) Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri- Oakland needs playmakers on offense to help JaMarcus Russell earn his money. An offensive tackle is much needed but even if one slipped I don’t see Al Davis passing on Maclin as he is the type of player Davis dreams about at night.
8) Jacksonville (5-11) Rey Maualuga, MLB, USC – Jacksonville desperately needed one of the franchise OL to drop to them and now will be scrabbling and most likely working the phones to trade out of this pick. If they stay then ILB and DT are the two areas of need with Raji grading out higher than Maualuga. However in the end, LB is a bigger need and HC Jack Del Rio as a former Trojan LB will go for a similar player as he was and take Maualuga.
9) Green Bay (6-10) Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State- As Raji continues to slide, the Packers will pause and think about him at DT would be nice. However, a lack of pressure on the QB in 2007 was widely considered the downfall of the defense. This will make Brown the pick despite the Packers being burned with Jamal Reynolds a few years back, who was another pass rushing end from FSU that the Packers used a Top 10 pick on.
10) San Francisco (7-9) Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State – Like the Packers, the 49′ers will look closely at Raji as a lot of people don’t expect him to still be on the board but the same could be said about Jenkins who is the top coverage defensive back. Mark Sanchez will be another player SF will have internal debate about making this a pick that could go in a lot of different directions. When all is said and done, it will be Jenkins that makes the most sense for the 49′ers.
11) Buffalo (7-9) Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State – The Bills would love to add a big-time TE but there just isn’t one in this year’s draft worthy of being selected this high so they will wait for later in the draft to address it. The defense needs help and Maybin has as much upside as any player in the draft making him a great risk/reward at the 11th pick.
12) Denver (8-8) B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College – The slide ends as the Broncos will gladly jump all over the top DT in the draft who could easily go in the Top 5. New HC Josh McDaniels could go in a bunch of directions here including a running back but assuming he thinks like the Patriots then OL/DL/LB will br what he is looking for and Raji is the logical choice.
13)Washington (8-8) Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas- Offensive line is a bigger need but that isn’t their style to use high picks on something as boring as an OT. Plus in their defense, any OL selected here could be considered a reach. To some people’s surprise, Mark Sanchez will get a heavy look as the franchise is about ready to move on from Jason Campbell. However when it is all said and done, Orakpo is the complete player that is a great fit for the Redskins.
14) New Orleans (8-8) Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois – The Saints need defensive help in order to take the pressure off the offense and Davis is the type of playmaker that can take advantage of opposing teams trying to play catch if they fall behind. Some folks are predicting a RB here and while I understand their thinking in the end, the Saints need help on the defensive side of the ball not the offensive.
15) Houston (8-8) Brian Cushing, OLB, USC – The Texans were hoping one of the top CBs or an elite pass rusher fell to them but that didn’t happen so they will turn to one of the most versatile LBs in the draft in Cushing. While this pick isn’t as flashy as it could be, a few years from now it will look like pure genius.
16) San Diego (8-8) Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU- Just about everyone is predicting that the Chargers will select a running back here and while there are some that are worthy of the 16th pick I just don’t see it. They used their franchise tag on Darren Sporles and still have LT plus add in the fact they have had great success finding backs later in the draft it just doesn’t add up to take a back here. Jackson is a big run-stopping type DE which addresses the Chargers biggest need.
17) New York Jets (9-7) Laurinaitis, MLB, Ohio State – Sanchez is obviously an option here and a popular mock draft selection but like the Chargers taking a RB, the Jets taking a QB just doesn’t add up to me. New HC Rex Ryan is looking to make a statement and that statement is that the Jets are going to hurt you, they are going be nasty and no one is going want to play them. I suspect Ryan will go defense, passing on Sanchez and the RBs making Laurinaitis the perfect selection.
18) Chicago (9-7) Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss – The Bears need more help on the offensive line and will elect to wait on selecting a WR. Sanchez is a very likely option as Rex Grossman is someone the Bears no longer consider their QB of the future. Oher is a Top 10 talent that inconsistent play caused him to fall which makes him the Bears choice.
19) Tampa Bay (9-7) Harvin, WR, Florida – Nothing against USF but Tampa is a Gators town and the Bucs would love to bring in a playmaker who would not only spark some life into the offense but also sell a ton of jerseys.
20) Detroit – from Dallas (9-7) Mark Sanchez, QB, USC – It is likely a team could trade up and snag Sanchez before he fell to #20 but in my scenario we can’t predict trades. Getting Sanchez here would be the dream scenario for an organization that never seems to be able to catch a break. Sanchez will make the fans feel better about passing on Stafford, give them a legitimate QB of the future for a ¼ of the price.
21) Philadelphia (9-6-1) Eben Britton, OT, Arizona – With the top 3 running backs still on the board the Eagles will wait and assume one will fall to them with the 28th pick. The Eagles love huge offensive lineman and Britton fits that perfectly weighing in over 310lbs.
22) Minnesota (10-6) Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland – The Vikings are a running team without a QB to prevent opposing safeties from cheating up. The way to offset this is to either find yourself a better QB or get a WR that can make the safeties pay if they are watching what Adrian Peterson is doing. Heyward-Bey is the fastest receiver in the draft and is the answer to a team looking to run the ball with a bad QB.
23) New England (11-5 Clay Matthews, OLB, Ohio State- The Patriots might be known for their offense but when it comes to the draft they are consistent in the first round usually taking a versatile OL, DL or LB. Matthews fits that bill as a hard nose, blue collar player who can do a little of everything.
24) Atlanta (11-5) Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State – Pettigrew is the top TE in the draft who the Bills could reach for with the 11h pick. However after the Bills pass I suspect he will slide down here were the Falcons will gladly jump all over him to give them another option for Matt Ryan.
25) Miami (11-5) Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois – The Dolphins are praying that Cushing somehow dropped to them but will be happy to settle on English who is a perfect fit for a 3-4 defense that will help provide more pass rush on the opposite of Joey Porter.
26) Baltimore (11-5) D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt- The Ravens need help in the secondary and Moore is too good of a value to pass up for a WR which is the other position that could be addressed here.
27) Indianapolis (12-4) Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss- The Colts have soured on Joseph Addai so with all the top RBs still on the board will be quite tempted to take one here. It would be hard to argue against taking the top RB in the draft with the 27th pick but it is just not a big enough need to pass up on a disruptive DT in Jerry that the Colts desperately need.
28) Philadelphia – from Carolina (12-4) Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia – Still not completely convinced that the Eagles are looking to draft a RB in the 1st round but when presented with the chance at the top back it will be too good to pass up. The next question is which back would they want Chris Wells who would complement Brian Westbrook or Knowshon Moreno would be more of a long-term replacement? I say they go with the back that will be a future featured back for the Eagles and that is Moreno.
29) New York Giants (12-4) Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina – The Giants need to replace Amani Toomer and perhaps Plaxico Burres and Nicks is the polished WR that could step in immediately.
30)Tennessee (13-3) Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech – The Titans don’t take WRs in the 1st round, never have so there is little reason to expect anything this year. That leaves help on the defensive line an area to address and Johnson would represent a nice value here as he has the potential to fly up the charts in the next few months
31) Arizona (9-7) Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia – Everyone including my mother if I asked her assume the Cardinals will select a RB with this pick. Adding to this in my mock draft both Chris Wells and LeSean McCoy are still on the board. While them taking a back would not be a mistake, I just don’t think they are as worried about it as the media is. The defense was suspect all season besides a 3-game span in the playoffs making Sintim a much smarter pick here.
32) Pittsburgh (12-4) Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma- The Steelers need to add some depth in the middle of their offensive line and has three great options in Alex Mack, Max Unger and Robinson. I could see any of the three being selected by the Steelers but will predict Robinson for the reason that he has the nastiest that seems to fit in the best with the Steelers.
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