Mock NFL Draft 3.04

March 5th, 2009 by Drew Smith

The Combine and most of the big name free-agents have signed, meaning my previous mock draft has been Stirred up. Many people questioned me leaving out the running backs in the 1st round of my first mock draft and while I was down on the group as a whole, I never expected them to preform so poorly at the Combine. It is still likely that a team will trade up to snag one but unless someone shines in the individual workouts, it is possible that we won’t see any backs go in the 1st round. Also the quarterback group was unimpressive at the combine, which could lead to them all sliding in the draft.

1) Detroit (0-16) Jason Smith, OT, Baylor- I am sticking with my pick here of Jason Smith by the Lions despite the purging of Jon Kitna and David Orlovsky. I am still not convinced that Detroit views Matthew Stafford as a can’t-miss quarterback so will select Smith who will sign before the draft and step right into the starting role. The individual workouts for Stafford will be his chance to prove he is a quarterback that Detroit can not pass on. However, until then, I stand by my pick of Smith.

See the rest of my Round One projections…

2) St. Louis (2-14) Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia- The Rams have long had their eyes set on Monroe and nothing on the free agent market has me changing this pick. The Rams need a left tackle and after missing out on Jake Long last year will choose between Monroe and Andre Smith. Monroe fits better for the Rams than Andre Smith who has no chance at going in the Top 3 after his meltdown at the combine.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (2-14) Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest- The Chiefs are no longer in the market for a QB with the trade for Matt Cassell,which allows them to select the top defensive player in the draft which is Curry. It is hard to imagine the Chiefs going with anyone else here unless they want to add another weapon for Cassell with Crabtree.

4) Seattle (4-12) Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia- This pick may surprise people but the Seahawks came close to cutting ties with Matt Hasselback this offseason as his salary and bad back makes him an unreliable long-term option. The signing of TJ Houshmandzadeh ensures that Seattle will be committed to the passing game and allows Stafford to spend a year learning on the sidelines. If Seattle chooses to pass on Stafford, then BJ Raji becomes the obvious pick here.

5) Cleveland (4-12) Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech- The Browns need help in many areas but with the top two offensive tackles and Curry off the board, the Browns must take the best value at the #5 spot. That pick is Crabtree, who will be able to come in and immediately help Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards be successful. A pass rushing DE or a CB is a need but would be a reach here. Rarely do you see teams reaching with a Top 5 pick.

6) Cincinnati (4-11-1) B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College – The Bengals are sitting at a perfect position assuming Stafford and Crabtree go in the Top 5. The reason is they will be more than happy with Smith, Monroe, Curry or Raji. Raji gives them a presence in the middle of the defensive line which has been weak point for sometime with the Bengals.

7) Oakland (5-11) Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri- Oakland needs playmakers on offense to help JaMarcus Russell earn his money. An offensive tackle is much needed but even if one slipped, I don’t see Al Davis passing on Maclin as he is the type of player Davis dreams about at night.

8) Jacksonville (5-11) Andre Smith, OT, Alabama- Smith has the potential to fall from perhaps the #1 overall pick a month ago to the late teens based on his combine antics. However, he is too talented for the Jags to pass up on as they desperately need help on the offensive line. Jack Del Rio is starting to feel the pressure and is forced to take the gamble on Smith here and hope he can get his head back in the game.

9) Green Bay (6-10) Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State- A lack of pressure on the QB in 2007 was widely considered the downfall of the defense. This will make Brown the pick despite the Packers being burned with Jamal Reynolds a few years back, who was another pass rushing end from FSU that the Packers used a Top 10 pick on.

10) San Francisco (7-9) Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois – In my last mock, I had the 49′ers taking Malcolm Jenkins but after the performances at the combine it now looks like Davis will be the first defensive back off the board. I still stand by my assessment that SF will go cornerback here but made the switch to Davis from Jenkins.

11) Buffalo (7-9) Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas- Orakpo has jumped Maybin based on the combine and some people believe that the Bills are eyeing him with the 11^th pick. All the pass rushers are currently fighting for positions with individual workouts in the next month being the key to see what order they may come off the board on draft day.

12) Denver (8-8) Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State – Maybin, who is considered the most raw of the pass rushing ends, was expected to have a stellar performance at the combine. Although his workout was fine, it didn’t blow anyone away like expected. So most people assume teams will value the more polished Orakpo higher. The Broncos front office has building a dynasty on their mind. They will gladly grab the raw but most upside player in Maybin to start building that 3-4 defense around.

13)Washington (8-8) Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech – The Redskins need an offensive lineman but that is just not a flashy enough pick. Jason Taylor is gone and the team will need to protect their $100 million player in Haynesworth, making the freakish Johnson a logically pick.

14) New Orleans (8-8) Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State – The Saints will be tempted to take Brian Cushing but in the end the chance to address their secondary with a player who some still view as a Top 10 pick is too much to pass up.

15) Houston (8-8) Brian Cushing, OLB, USC – The Texans were hoping one of the top CBs or an elite pass rusher fell to them but that didn’t happen so they will turn to one of the most versatile LBs in the draft in Cushing. While this pick isn’t as flashy as it could be, a few years from now it will look like pure genius.

16) San Diego (8-8) Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss – In my previous mock, I had the Chargers going with Tyson Jackson and that still is a possibility as he addresses a need. However, the NFL puts a higher value on offensive tackles and Oher is the last of the top tier ones and offers a better value than Jackson at this point.

17) New York Jets (9-7) Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois – People have the Jets taking a QB or a WR and even a RB with this pick and I am just not seeing it. It is true that Brett Favre retired and that the team cut Laveranues Coles but the new coach is Rex Ryan. He is going to get that defense in the Top 5 and he is going to do it with his type of players. English impress teams in the interviews with a blue-collar, hard-nosed and nasty attitude that Coach Ryan is going to fall in love with. It didn’t hurt either that English preformed well physically as well.

18) Chicago (9-7) Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland – The Bears need help on the offensive line and could also use a pass rushing end but with them off the board the Bears will help the running game in a different way. Heyward-Bey ran a ridiculous fast 4.30 forty time that will get him in the Top 20 and wouldn’t be shocking if he ascended closer to the Top 10. By drafting Heyward-Bey, the Bears will make defenses pay for selling out for the run.

19) Tampa Bay (9-7) Harvin, WR, Florida – Nothing against USF but Tampa is a Gators town and the Bucs would love to bring in a playmaker who would not only spark some life into the offense but also sell a ton of jerseys.

20) Detroit – from Dallas (9-7) Mark Sanchez, QB, USC – A dream scenario for the Lions would to take the franchise tackle with the 1^st pick and follow it up with a potential franchise QB with their second 1^st round pick. It may require the Lions trading up to guarantee is happening but as things stand today I see Sanchez falling into the Lions lap at pick 20.

21) Philadelphia (9-6-1) Eben Britton, OT, Arizona – With the top 3 running backs and the top TEs still on the board the Eagles will wait and assume one will fall to them with the 28^th pick. The Eagles love huge offensive lineman and Britton fits that perfectly weighing in over 310lbs.

22) Minnesota (10-6) Alex Mack, C, California - The Vikings seemed poised to take Heyward-Bey with this pick before his stupidly fast showing at the combine. Sanchez is another option for them but will likely have to trade ahead of the Lions to make that happen. The Vikings have a big hole at the center position and will have no problem snagging the top center in the draft to help open holes for their franchise player in Adrian Peterson.

23) New England (11-5 Clay Matthews, OLB, Ohio State- The Patriots might be known for their offense but when it comes to the draft they are consistent in the first round usually taking a versatile OL, DL or LB. Matthews fits that bill as a hard nose, blue collar player who can do a little of everything.

24) Atlanta (11-5) Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss- The Falcons have two areas that they would like to address with the currently with a TE and DT. With Atlanta looking like a lock to sign LJ Smith that leaves Jerry an easy selection as he fills a need and represents a nice value with the 24^th pick.

25) Miami (11-5) Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina – The Dolphins would love to get English, Cushing or Matthews with this pick and address the WR position in the 2^nd round but with those players off the board Nicks becomes the pick. Nicks is a NFL-ready receiver who runs crisp routes and doesn’t drop passes making him a perfect compliment to Ted Ginn.

26) Baltimore (11-5) Sean Smith, CB/S, Utah - Smith is a big physical defensive back that answered the question of whether he was fast enough to play CB in the NFL. However his size will allow the Ravens to use him in the nickel/dime coverages out the gate as he eases into the starting role at CB.

27) Indianapolis (12-4) Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers – This day and age the NFL is about picking a side and doing it better than anyone else whether it is defense or offense. The Colts are on the offensive side and must surround Peyton Manning with plenty of weapons in order to be successful. A running back is an option as the Colts love to select the best player available in the first round but Britt has all the tools to excel in the Colts offense.

28) Philadelphia – from Carolina (12-4) Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State – The Eagles use their TE as much as anyone in the NFL and will be looking to replace LJ Smith. After getting an OT with their first pick, the Eagles will come back and nab the top TE in the draft who is currently Pettigrew.

29) New York Giants (12-4) Rey Maualuga, MLB, USC – Maualuga falling this far has a lot to do with his injury that could prevent him from working out for teams. It is true that his career should speak for itself but the fact that a lot of teams where questioning his ability to be a 3-down player before the injury could see him fall out of the teens if can’t get healthy before the draft. If he gets past the Jets at pick 16 then he could easily fall to the Giants which would take about 5 seconds to turn in their pick.

30)Tennessee (13-3) Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU – The Titans need some big bodies on the defensive line with Haynesworth bolting to the Redskins. Jackson fits the bill perfectly as he can play both DE and DT and would be a great value at pick 30 as he could go as high as 16 to the Chargers. A WR is also a need but the Titans look for value and with five receivers already off the board I don’t see them selecting one here.

31) Arizona (9-7) Max Unger, C, Oregon – The Cardinals need a pass rusher and help with the interior of their line. The biggest knock with Unger is with his run blocking but since the Cards don’t need to run the ball they will look at him as perfect fit who can play a multiple of positions.

32) Pittsburgh (12-4) Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma- The Steelers need to add some depth in the middle of their offensive line and with Mack and Unger off the board it will make Robinson an easy selection.

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