NFL Draft Combine Preview
February 19th, 2009 by Drew Smith
The 2009 NFL Combine is underway now and there are always a lot of debating that takes place surrounding this event. The fact that a player can have a dominating collegiate career, be considered one the top players at his position and then have that all flushed down the toilet with a bad week of working out in a non-game environment always leave fans scratching their heads. The big debate of how much the scout’s ‘measurables’ should over-ride the on-the-field performance is worth its own article and will not be addressed here. Instead I am just going to accept the fact that this week in Indianapolis is extremely important that can mean difference of millions of dollars or in many cases whether or not a kid’s dream of playing in the NFL is fulfilled.
In order to make my point to how important the NFL Combine is let’s take a look at last years Combine to illustrate how much the NFL Combine influences the draft.
Vernon Gholston – DE/OLB Ohio State: Gholston (right, CNN) had one very good year at Ohio State in which he then chose to declare early for the draft. Based on his potential, Golston arrived at the Combine last year as someone expected to go in the 15-25 pick range of the first round. However after having a legendary type workout in which he posted a 40 time of 4.65 and 37 bench presses for a 6-4 266lb DE, he left scouts drooling. The NY Jets selected him 6th overall and gave him a $50 million contract with $21million guaranteed.
Joe Flacco – QB Delaware: Football fans know all about Flacco now after leading the Ravens to the 2nd round of the playoffs but before the Combine last year he was considered a 3rd-4th round talent. Flacco easily outperformed all the other QBs that worked out (Matt Ryan did not) and gets selected with the 17th overall pick. Flacco signed a 5-year 30million contract before playing a down for the Ravens.
Chris Johnson – RB East Carolina: The 2008 running back class was considered one of the strongest in the last decade and was loaded with house-hold names from the college ranks. There were so many intriguing backs that before the Combine most people didn’t even pay much attention to Johnson who was expected to be a 3rd-5th round pick. This was before posting a 4.24 in the 40 which was one of the fastest times ever recorded at the Combine and next thing you know the Titans are selecting him 24th overall and gives him a 5year 12million contract with 7million guarantee.
Mario Manningham – WR Michigan: Manningham made a name for himself at the University of Michigan as being a deep threat explosive receiver. Most experts had him being one of the Top 5 WRs in the draft and a potential late 1st round pick. However after posting a 40 time in the disappointing 4.6 range, Mannington slid to the late 3rd round and was the 14th WR selected.
Mike Hart – RB Michigan: Hart had a stellar college career starting 4 seasons with the Wolverines and rushing for over 5000 career yards and 40+ TDs. Although never considered a burner his running style and ability to do the little things like catch and block had most scouts predicting a 2nd-3rd round pick. This was of course before running a 40 in the 4.7s as a 208lb running back which was too much too slow for NFL teams to use a meaningful draft pick on. Hart fell to the 6th round and ended up being the 21st RB selected and even being jumped by Div 1AA RBs Timothy Hightower from Richmond and Xavier Omon from Northwest Missouri State.
Andre Woodson – QB Kentucky: Perhaps one of the biggest slides by a QB in recent memory came from Woodson who was considered one of the top QB prospects all throughout his last two years at Kentucky. Woodson was highly efficient in college, didn’t make mistakes and made the Wildcats competitive in the SEC. At 6’5 225lbs, he possessed the size that NFL teams seek for the QB position so it was no surprise that scouts where projecting him as a bubble 1st round pick. However Woodson showed a major mechanical flaw at the combine that had teams running and he fell to the last pick in the 6th round. Not only did the combine cost him millions of dollars, the Giants had no monetary investment in him to even bother correcting the flaw and cut Woodson before the season even started.
The players listed above are some of the extreme examples from last year but it is safe to assume that every player that works out and participates in the drills will risk sometimes their entire NFL career this week. Most players these days will spend the entire time from the Bowl Game until the Combine working out specifically to impress NFL teams and scouts. With that said who are some of the players that have the biggest question marks coming into the 2009 NFL Combine?
Scouts love to see players do something they shouldn’t based on their size so big players who can run and move comparable to the smaller players will almost always see their stock on the rise. At the running back position players like Rashard Jennings, Chris Wells, Shonn Greene and Arian Foster are all 230lb+ backs that will get teams excited if they can run sub 4.50 40s and show the ability to catch. A big WR can get away with running an average 40 time as the NFL understands that size and hands and jumping ability negates speed but if a big WR can show top end speed and quickness then that is when they start climbing up the charts. Michael Crabtree doesn’t need a lightning fast 40 to lock in a high draft pick but anything under 4.50 makes him a virtual lock for the Top 5. Other receivers like Ramses Barden who is list at 6-6 227lbs, Patrick Turner (6-5 221lbs), Jaison Williams (6-4 239lbs) and Kenny Britt (6-4 215lbs) will all see themselves potential moving up the receivers rankings with a sub-4.50 40s.
Perhaps the players who take on the biggest risks at the Combine are players that are already labeled as a certain type of player because of their size. While the bigger players have the ability to open eyes by displaying speed and quickness, the smaller players can only confirm their speed. Percy Harvin is a perfect example as his entire game is based on his speed and explosiveness and if he turns in an average 40 time and/or average cone and shuttle times…NFL teams will be asking themselves why should we draft a small, average speed, brittle receiver? This means receivers Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Derrick Williams, Pat White, Kenny McKinley and Mike Thomas must run blazing 40s in order to maintain their draft position and will need to post sick times in order to see their draft status climb.
The quarterback position is a much more complicated position to pinpoint a single drill or two that can make or break a player’s draft position. NFL teams want a big quarterback, but one that can move also…he needs to be able to be accurate and show arm strength…he needs to show leadership and poise…and intelligence. Each quarterback has some concerns with some of the above mentioned traits and if they can erase them at the Combine then that is when you see them moving up the draft boards. Josh Freeman has the ability to jump into the 1st round if he can display consistency to go along with his rocket arm. Rhett Bomar will need to interview well to show that he has matured since his off-the-field problems at Oklahoma. Graham Harrell will need to show he can work out of a pro-style offense and display enough arm strength to be successful in the NFL. Nate Davis has to overcome his small frame by showing mobility and accuracy on the run. The list goes on with every quarterback at the Combine having areas in which they have to prove the haters wrong in order to be drafted in the first half of the draft.
My Predictions (remember, I watch a lot of games…)
LeSean McCoy RB – Pitt: will run a sub 4.40 40 and make a strong case to go in the 1st round.
Todd Brandstater QB – Fresno State: will get scouts excited by showing mobility and a strong arm to go along with his 6-5 216lb frame and make a case for going in the Top 3 rounds.
Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston State: will say all the right things in his interviews and move up the draft boards as teams look for the next John Flacco.
Rashard Jennings RB Liberty: to display above average speed and quickness for back his size and move into the Top 7 backs.
Percy Harvin WR Florida: don’t be surprised if Harvin elects to not run to give himself more time to recover from his injuries…he has too much at stake to risk running on a bum leg.
Kenny Britt WR Rutgers – will do his best Michael Crabtree impression and make some teams question if there is enough of a difference to justify the extra 40million it will cost to take Crabtree in the Top 10 of the 1st round over Britt in the 2nd round.
Derrick Williams WR Penn State – a lot of people are expecting Williams to blow up in the forty with a low 4.3 time but something tells me he will be closer to 4.40 which will not help him move up the draft board.
Patrick Turner WR USC – currently way down most experts’ draft board, I expect him to impress scouts with a nice size/speed combo and get into the Top 15 ranked receivers.
Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss – will continue his climb up the TE board, making a case to be the second ranked TE come April.
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