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NFL Fantasy: Move Fast to get an Edge on running backs
By Jeffrey Boyer | August 13, 2008
Jeffrey Boyer of FantasyQuants.com joins the team this year to give you a very unique approach to predicting NFL Fantasy production. Jeff bases his predictions and fantasy team upon Modern Portfolio Theory , commonly used for investing in stocks and bonds. Jeff brings his entire body of NFL analysis to our site starting this year.
Our top two Fantasy Quant RB selections this season are Fast Willie Parker and Edgerrin James.
Parker had a somewhat disappointing 2007 after a stellar 2006 campaign dropping his TD total from 16 to 2. Parker also suffered a Week 16 broken fibula. That said, all reports from camp have FWP looking great and back at full speed. There are even some reports that claim Parker will have every chance to reclaim his goal line duties once again. We shall see…
Edge on the other hand has been consistently average since he moved to Arizona. With just shy of 1500 yards from scrimmage and 6.5 TDs over the last two seasons, Edge is as predictable as they come.
So why do we love these two in 2008? Simple – you get the tail end of a top 10 fantasy back in the 5th or 6th round of your fantasy draft. What else can you ask for?
Look at the Standard Deviation numbers in the 8’s.
Look at the VRM numbers, some of the lowest amongst RBs.
These two stats translate into week in and week out performance, and that’s exactly what we want in our second or third RBs on our roster. They each carry a strong Value Ratio and Weighted Number as well. Look to pick up one of both of these RBs in the mid rounds and feel confident you will have a steady RB on your squad.
NFL RB 2008 FantasyQuant Worksheet
| Name | Pos | SD | Eff Ratio | VRM | ADP | Val Ratio | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | NYG RB | 12.38 | 47.96 | 5.73 | 210.23 | 100.82 | 6.58 |
| Willie Parker | PIT RB | 8.42 | 85.42 | 2.45 | 45.59 | 38.94 | 4.30 |
| Brian Westbrook | PHI RB | 14.51 | 126.74 | 4.76 | 5.05 | 6.40 | 3.67 |
| Ronnie Brown | MIA RB | 21.41 | 75.58 | 10.99 | 35.39 | 26.75 | 3.40 |
| Maurice Morris | SEA RB | 8.29 | 24.02 | 3.84 | 209.19 | 50.25 | 3.28 |
| Sammy Morris | NEP RB | 12.53 | 23.28 | 7.72 | 193.08 | 44.95 | 2.98 |
| Edgerrin James | ARI RB | 8.97 | 51.00 | 3.34 | 57.92 | 29.54 | 2.90 |
| Ahman Green | HOU RB | 6.90 | 29.42 | 2.64 | 131.52 | 38.70 | 2.81 |
| Kolby Smith | KCC RB | 17.56 | 17.30 | 14.95 | 245.21 | 42.42 | 2.69 |
| Kenny Watson | CIN RB | 16.52 | 23.28 | 12.13 | 168.59 | 39.25 | 2.68 |
| Brandon Jacobs | NYG RB | 14.62 | 55.30 | 7.01 | 40.84 | 22.58 | 2.64 |
| Carnell Williams | TBB RB | 9.46 | 20.50 | 5.05 | 188.33 | 38.61 | 2.58 |
| Reggie Bush | NOS RB | 8.68 | 67.91 | 2.83 | 21.74 | 14.76 | 2.56 |
| Ladainian Tomlinson | SDC RB | 18.16 | 90.43 | 7.85 | 2.16 | 1.95 | 2.48 |
| Willis McGahee | BAL RB | 11.24 | 63.29 | 4.38 | 20.46 | 12.95 | 2.35 |
| Clinton Portis | WAS RB | 12.02 | 70.17 | 4.65 | 13.50 | 9.47 | 2.34 |
| Thomas Jones | NYJ RB | 9.38 | 39.87 | 3.96 | 59.95 | 23.90 | 2.31 |
| Justin Fargas | OAK RB | 16.86 | 25.15 | 12.16 | 123.85 | 31.15 | 2.30 |
| Marshawn Lynch | BUF RB | 10.37 | 67.99 | 3.74 | 12.89 | 8.76 | 2.25 |
| Steven Jackson | STL RB | 12.22 | 77.67 | 4.57 | 4.73 | 3.67 | 2.23 |
| Earnest Graham | TBB RB | 15.81 | 41.90 | 8.92 | 51.06 | 21.40 | 2.23 |
| LenDale White | TEN RB | 12.31 | 36.39 | 6.35 | 62.87 | 22.88 | 2.16 |
| Larry Johnson | KCC RB | 14.29 | 58.21 | 6.61 | 16.83 | 9.80 | 2.05 |
| Jamal Lewis | CLE RB | 18.57 | 46.64 | 10.97 | 33.26 | 15.51 | 2.04 |
| Fred Taylor | JAC RB | 12.69 | 27.18 | 7.45 | 89.39 | 24.30 | 2.00 |
| Joseph Addai | IND RB | 15.41 | 64.00 | 7.13 | 5.76 | 3.69 | 1.88 |
| Adrian Peterson | CHI RB | 12.00 | 12.83 | 8.67 | 200.25 | 25.68 | 1.69 |
| Chester Taylor | MIN RB | 18.42 | 20.04 | 15.31 | 101.47 | 20.34 | 1.60 |
| Frank Gore | SFO RB | 16.40 | 43.36 | 9.32 | 9.60 | 4.16 | 1.36 |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN RB | 26.43 | 47.20 | 18.88 | 2.56 | 1.21 | 1.30 |
| Marion Barber | DAL RB | 13.45 | 40.71 | 6.99 | 10.36 | 4.22 | 1.29 |
| Fred Jackson | BUF RB | 12.08 | 8.26 | 9.81 | 208.86 | 17.25 | 1.13 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC RB | 13.91 | 30.17 | 8.32 | 18.69 | 5.64 | 1.09 |
| Ryan Grant | GBP RB | 17.52 | 28.29 | 12.36 | 21.10 | 5.97 | 1.06 |
| Tatum Bell | DET RB | 9.03 | 8.31 | 5.82 | 179.58 | 14.92 | 1.01 |
| Laurence Maroney | NEP RB | 11.78 | 21.67 | 7.15 | 37.37 | 8.10 | 1.00 |
| Rudi Johnson | CIN RB | 13.25 | 14.53 | 9.91 | 68.91 | 10.01 | 0.91 |
| Selvin Young | DEN RB | 12.33 | 9.09 | 9.94 | 76.96 | 6.99 | 0.61 |
| DeAngelo Williams | CAR RB | 9.29 | 6.82 | 6.34 | 93.66 | 6.38 | 0.52 |
| Jerious Norwood | ATL RB | 7.86 | 3.95 | 5.00 | 130.32 | 5.15 | 0.38 |
| Darren Sproles | SDC RB | 20.47 | 2.09 | 32.75 | 229.59 | 4.80 | 0.31 |
| Chris Henry | TEN RB | 7.23 | 1.56 | 4.55 | 259.54 | 4.04 | 0.25 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | NYG RB | 20.70 | 2.32 | 32.97 | 124.25 | 2.88 | 0.21 |
Topics: Cheatsheets, Jeffrey Boyer, Pro Football |
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