Subscribe

Hit the message boards

E-mail newsletter sign up

Enter your email here:

Polls

Who provided the weekend's best performance?

  • Case Keenum (29%, 5 Votes)
  • Percy Harvin (29%, 5 Votes)
  • Dennis Kennedy (24%, 4 Votes)
  • Shonn Greene (18%, 3 Votes)
  • James Stark (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 17

Loading ... Loading ...

Play Fantasy College Football

U-Sports: Taking Fantasy Football to School
Host your league at U-Sports.com

BlitzRadio Podcast


« Triage Time: Camping Casualties | Main | Media Alert: ESPN 1080 AM in Orlando »

NFL Fantasy: Move Fast to get an Edge on running backs

By Jeffrey Boyer | August 13, 2008

Edgerrin JamesJeffrey Boyer of FantasyQuants.com joins the team this year to give you a very unique approach to predicting NFL Fantasy production. Jeff bases his predictions and fantasy team upon Modern Portfolio Theory , commonly used for investing in stocks and bonds. Jeff brings his entire body of NFL analysis to our site starting this year.

Our top two Fantasy Quant RB selections this season are Fast Willie Parker and Edgerrin James.

Parker had a somewhat disappointing 2007 after a stellar 2006 campaign dropping his TD total from 16 to 2. Parker also suffered a Week 16 broken fibula. That said, all reports from camp have FWP looking great and back at full speed. There are even some reports that claim Parker will have every chance to reclaim his goal line duties once again. We shall see…

Edge on the other hand has been consistently average since he moved to Arizona. With just shy of 1500 yards from scrimmage and 6.5 TDs over the last two seasons, Edge is as predictable as they come.

So why do we love these two in 2008? Simple – you get the tail end of a top 10 fantasy back in the 5th or 6th round of your fantasy draft. What else can you ask for?

Look at the Standard Deviation numbers in the 8’s.

Look at the VRM numbers, some of the lowest amongst RBs.

These two stats translate into week in and week out performance, and that’s exactly what we want in our second or third RBs on our roster. They each carry a strong Value Ratio and Weighted Number as well. Look to pick up one of both of these RBs in the mid rounds and feel confident you will have a steady RB on your squad.

NFL RB 2008 FantasyQuant Worksheet

Name Pos SD Eff Ratio VRM ADP Val Ratio Weighted
Derrick Ward NYG RB 12.38 47.96 5.73 210.23 100.82 6.58
Willie Parker PIT RB 8.42 85.42 2.45 45.59 38.94 4.30
Brian Westbrook PHI RB 14.51 126.74 4.76 5.05 6.40 3.67
Ronnie Brown MIA RB 21.41 75.58 10.99 35.39 26.75 3.40
Maurice Morris SEA RB 8.29 24.02 3.84 209.19 50.25 3.28
Sammy Morris NEP RB 12.53 23.28 7.72 193.08 44.95 2.98
Edgerrin James ARI RB 8.97 51.00 3.34 57.92 29.54 2.90
Ahman Green HOU RB 6.90 29.42 2.64 131.52 38.70 2.81
Kolby Smith KCC RB 17.56 17.30 14.95 245.21 42.42 2.69
Kenny Watson CIN RB 16.52 23.28 12.13 168.59 39.25 2.68
Brandon Jacobs NYG RB 14.62 55.30 7.01 40.84 22.58 2.64
Carnell Williams TBB RB 9.46 20.50 5.05 188.33 38.61 2.58
Reggie Bush NOS RB 8.68 67.91 2.83 21.74 14.76 2.56
Ladainian Tomlinson SDC RB 18.16 90.43 7.85 2.16 1.95 2.48
Willis McGahee BAL RB 11.24 63.29 4.38 20.46 12.95 2.35
Clinton Portis WAS RB 12.02 70.17 4.65 13.50 9.47 2.34
Thomas Jones NYJ RB 9.38 39.87 3.96 59.95 23.90 2.31
Justin Fargas OAK RB 16.86 25.15 12.16 123.85 31.15 2.30
Marshawn Lynch BUF RB 10.37 67.99 3.74 12.89 8.76 2.25
Steven Jackson STL RB 12.22 77.67 4.57 4.73 3.67 2.23
Earnest Graham TBB RB 15.81 41.90 8.92 51.06 21.40 2.23
LenDale White TEN RB 12.31 36.39 6.35 62.87 22.88 2.16
Larry Johnson KCC RB 14.29 58.21 6.61 16.83 9.80 2.05
Jamal Lewis CLE RB 18.57 46.64 10.97 33.26 15.51 2.04
Fred Taylor JAC RB 12.69 27.18 7.45 89.39 24.30 2.00
Joseph Addai IND RB 15.41 64.00 7.13 5.76 3.69 1.88
Adrian Peterson CHI RB 12.00 12.83 8.67 200.25 25.68 1.69
Chester Taylor MIN RB 18.42 20.04 15.31 101.47 20.34 1.60
Frank Gore SFO RB 16.40 43.36 9.32 9.60 4.16 1.36
Adrian Peterson MIN RB 26.43 47.20 18.88 2.56 1.21 1.30
Marion Barber DAL RB 13.45 40.71 6.99 10.36 4.22 1.29
Fred Jackson BUF RB 12.08 8.26 9.81 208.86 17.25 1.13
Maurice Jones-Drew JAC RB 13.91 30.17 8.32 18.69 5.64 1.09
Ryan Grant GBP RB 17.52 28.29 12.36 21.10 5.97 1.06
Tatum Bell DET RB 9.03 8.31 5.82 179.58 14.92 1.01
Laurence Maroney NEP RB 11.78 21.67 7.15 37.37 8.10 1.00
Rudi Johnson CIN RB 13.25 14.53 9.91 68.91 10.01 0.91
Selvin Young DEN RB 12.33 9.09 9.94 76.96 6.99 0.61
DeAngelo Williams CAR RB 9.29 6.82 6.34 93.66 6.38 0.52
Jerious Norwood ATL RB 7.86 3.95 5.00 130.32 5.15 0.38
Darren Sproles SDC RB 20.47 2.09 32.75 229.59 4.80 0.31
Chris Henry TEN RB 7.23 1.56 4.55 259.54 4.04 0.25
Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 20.70 2.32 32.97 124.25 2.88 0.21

Topics: Cheatsheets, Jeffrey Boyer, Pro Football |

Comments are closed.